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Post by AstroMet on Jul 21, 2011 7:49:40 GMT
All of Earth's atmosphere is affected by magnetic fields, that's always been the case. As for La Nina - What's going on is that we are in a climate transition state and we remain inside this 36-year global warming cycle, now in the 30th year with six (6) more to come. However, we've run the course of the 2009-2011 ENSO, though La Nina lingers, that is quite normal for this oscillation event, which was a deep and unusual one and is ending as it began - unusually. This is all astronomic. We are entering a warmer-than-normal phase, which I expected, and next year will be even warmer than this current summer in the northern hemisphere. The volcanic activity since 2010 has caused cooler than normal climate fluctuations - in tandem with La Nina - to affect various northern regions. Look at the late spring/summer season in the UK or the cooler-than-normal summer in the Pacific Northwest, the heavy snow accumulations in the western mountains and the precipitation and cooler than normal temperatures along the northern-tier provinces of the Canadian Prairies. La Nina simply does not turn itself off like a light switch. The lingering climate effects from ENSO will remain this year in various regions affected, but we are in for a warmer, windy and drier year next year, that's what I'm forecasting. astromet It is quite fascinating to read that you have all of this figured out! fyi, climatologists wish they were as cognizant as you. Let me suggest that you assemble your insights into a scientific publication. This would allow a broader audience of interested practicitioners to benefit from your deep understanding. I already have a broad audience. And what makes you think I haven't already written papers? I've written plenty of private papers on astronomic forecasting for climatologists and meteorologists and tutored others on astronomic forecasting. They have to learn the basics and speak the language since many have picked up very bad habits in their universities - meaning that they don't learn how to actually forecast. Let me suggest this to you tstat - For you to understand the world's climate you must be a dynamic thinker. That's because the Earth's climate is dynamic. You must also be an excellent observer of weather and be able to read an astronomic ephemeris. There's nothing to 'figure out' about the Earth's climate. It is all right there - all around you. If you unlearn what you have learned (yes, listen to Yoda) then you will be able to plainly see the driving of the climate by astronomic forces. It's long been figured out kiddo. Those who don't get it are not talented because to be so one must open one's eyes to the real natural world. |
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Post by twawki on Jul 22, 2011 0:10:24 GMT
I still think based on historical evidence, increased volcanism, svenmarks theory, cooling oceans we are in for a continuation of La Nina though not as strong as the first part - possibly till the end of the year then cyclicaly it will ebb back to neutral - not sure after that
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Post by AstroMet on Jul 22, 2011 8:28:58 GMT
I still think based on historical evidence, increased volcanism, svenmarks theory, cooling oceans we are in for a continuation of La Nina though not as strong as the first part - possibly till the end of the year then cyclicaly it will ebb back to neutral - not sure after that I don't see that. This ENSO is nearly a done deal. I forecasted it years in advance and also know that it is almost history. Some of the lessons we can learn from ENSO are to be prepared for climate events before they occur. Post ENSO, we are now transitioning back into a warmer-than-normal climate for several years though some will experience an anomalous cooler-year between 2011 and 2017. These anomalies are the calling cards of a new global cooling cycle that begins six years from now. However, in the meantime expect temperatures to be warmer-than-normal with spreading drought and less precipitation overall in various regions of the world, particularly those of southern regions. Northern regions continue to deal with cooler-than-normal temperatures, raised water tables and floods. This was the result of La Nina's power. |
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Post by richard on Jul 22, 2011 23:14:01 GMT
I already have a broad audience. And what makes you think I haven't already written papers? I've written plenty of private papers on astronomic forecasting for climatologists and meteorologists and tutored others on astronomic forecasting. Richard: Yes, we have read your substanceless papers on this blog. They consist of erroneous predictions along with insults and crowing about being able to predict the future. 99.99999999% of what you write is garbage. They have to learn the basics and speak the language since many have picked up very bad habits in their universities - meaning that they don't learn how to actually forecast. Richard: They do a heck of a lot better than you. But then random chance does better than you. You SUCK at forecasting. |
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Post by richard on Jul 22, 2011 23:17:20 GMT
I still think based on historical evidence, increased volcanism, svenmarks theory, cooling oceans we are in for a continuation of La Nina though not as strong as the first part - possibly till the end of the year then cyclicaly it will ebb back to neutral - not sure after that I don't see that. This ENSO is nearly a done deal. I forecasted it years in advance and also know that it is almost history. Egad. ENSO is a term that describes an oscillation. There is NO end for it except via continental drift. You keep crowing that YOU forecast the start/end of an ENSO. Well, duh, ENSO is continuous. What the heck are you talking about? |
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Jul 22, 2011 23:54:14 GMT
Egad Richard,
What everyone is talking about is the La Nina phase of ENSO. If you can't figure that out then please, just read the posts until you can understand them, and stop making comments that make you look like a stupid jerk.
Plus, I don't know what leading indicators that Astromet is looking at, but from my seat it sure looks like we could be back to La Nina conditions by October.
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Post by AstroMet on Jul 23, 2011 0:57:58 GMT
I don't see that. This ENSO is nearly a done deal. I forecasted it years in advance and also know that it is almost history. Egad. ENSO is a term that describes an oscillation. There is NO end for it except via continental drift. You keep crowing that YOU forecast the start/end of an ENSO. Well, duh, ENSO is continuous. What the heck are you talking about? Richard, this is not climate for dummies. ENSO is not continuous. You ought to stop smoking your shoes and come up for fresh air. What a bloke. |
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Post by AstroMet on Jul 23, 2011 1:00:33 GMT
Egad Richard, What everyone is talking about is the La Nina phase of ENSO. If you can't figure that out then please, just read the posts until you can understand them, and stop making comments that make you look like a stupid jerk. Plus, I don't know what leading indicators that Astromet is looking at, but from my seat it sure looks like we could be back to La Nina conditions by October. Although it may appear from current indicators, this La Nina phase of ENSO is nearly over, though there will be lingering effects from this particular oscillation. This is in addition to increased volcanic activity forcing particulates high into the atmosphere that can cool the climate over northern regions. Astronomical indicators show another climate transition phase is underway - that would be post-ENSO - and we are heading into a warmer-than-average climate for southern regions; with northern regions slowly emerging out of a cooler-than-normal climate. |
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Post by sunsettommy on Jul 23, 2011 2:09:51 GMT
magellan: Actually, you have this backwards. El Nino cools of the oceans long term. La Nina warms the oceans. The reason being that ocean readiation/convection is constant. The phenominum is so large and affects such a large area that when the heat is expressed, it is cooling. Vice versa for La Nina. We all know that what affects ocean heat is the Sun. The bands emitted with co2 in mind have no penetrative power and only skin warms. La Nina= cooing atmosphere, warming ocean. El Nino= warming atmosphere, cooling ocean. La-Nina is simply the absence of El-Nino. Meaning that it is El-Nino is where the energy from the sun is made visible.La-Nina has nothing,just the lack of the warm water to enter the atmosphere with.That is why it cools,due to the lack of that pooled warm air.That is normally seen and observed during the El-Nino phase. It is the frequency of El-Nino phases that determines the temperature change trend. If they are more common and last longer.Then it gets warmer. If they are less common.Then it gets cooler. I wonder if there are credible science research on the frequency of El-Nino's of the last 2,000 years available. |
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Post by sunsettommy on Jul 23, 2011 2:14:27 GMT
Egad Richard, What everyone is talking about is the La Nina phase of ENSO. If you can't figure that out then please, just read the posts until you can understand them, and stop making comments that make you look like a stupid jerk. Plus, I don't know what leading indicators that Astromet is looking at, but from my seat it sure looks like we could be back to La Nina conditions by October. Although it may appear from current indicators, this La Nina phase of ENSO is nearly over, though there will be lingering effects from this particular oscillation. This is in addition to increased volcanic activity forcing particulates high into the atmosphere that can cool the climate over northern regions. Astronomical indicators show another climate transition phase is underway - that would be post-ENSO - and we are heading into a warmer-than-average climate for southern regions; with northern regions slowly emerging out of a cooler-than-normal climate. NOAA thinks it will be at neutral and then back into another La-Nina run.  No El-Nino for a long while yet. |
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Post by thermostat on Jul 23, 2011 2:41:15 GMT
I don't see that. This ENSO is nearly a done deal. I forecasted it years in advance and also know that it is almost history. Egad. ENSO is a term that describes an oscillation. There is NO end for it except via continental drift. You keep crowing that YOU forecast the start/end of an ENSO. Well, duh, ENSO is continuous. What the heck are you talking about? Richard, In case you missed the posts, I was recently informed on this discussion forum that ENSO is 'not a cycle'; not clear, then what an irregular oscillation should be called, or how that relates to phenomena like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which has traditonally been refered to as 'a cycle' on this forum. But you've been here long enough to know the drill, whatever. |
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Post by thermostat on Jul 23, 2011 2:48:55 GMT
Although it may appear from current indicators, this La Nina phase of ENSO is nearly over, though there will be lingering effects from this particular oscillation. This is in addition to increased volcanic activity forcing particulates high into the atmosphere that can cool the climate over northern regions. Astronomical indicators show another climate transition phase is underway - that would be post-ENSO - and we are heading into a warmer-than-average climate for southern regions; with northern regions slowly emerging out of a cooler-than-normal climate. NOAA thinks it will be at neutral and then back into another La-Nina run. No El-Nino for a long while yet. sunsettommy, You are extrapolating beyond what NOAA is saying regarding ENSO www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.htmlThey write, Forecasts from a majority of the ENSO models, indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Nino-3.4 index between –0.5oC and +0.5oC; Fig. 6). However, over the last couple of weeks, forecasts created by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have begun to indicate the re-emergence of La Niña during Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (Fig. 7). Combined with the recent weakening of the positive subsurface ocean anomalies and the lingering La Niña state of the atmosphere, the possibility of a return to La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 has increased over the past month. However, ENSO-neutral remains most likely into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with most models and all multi-model forecasts (shown by the thick lines) predicting ENSO-neutral to continue through early 2012." |
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Post by thermostat on Jul 23, 2011 2:55:55 GMT
regarding ENSO The disparity between alternative projections causes uncertainty. Looking at historical data regarding ENSO, it would not be unusual to have a reversion to cooler equatorial SST's. www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/mei.html |
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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Jul 23, 2011 4:39:28 GMT
regarding ENSO The disparity between alternative projections causes uncertainty. Looking at historical data regarding ENSO, it would not be unusual to have a reversion to cooler equatorial SST's. www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/mei.htmlThe trend is obvious. The downward adjustment continues.(compare this to just two months ago) No surprise Iri july enso forecast. Expect a weak to moderate la nina by winter. Attachments:
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Post by thermostat on Jul 23, 2011 4:54:41 GMT
regarding ENSO The disparity between alternative projections causes uncertainty. Looking at historical data regarding ENSO, it would not be unusual to have a reversion to cooler equatorial SST's. www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/mei.htmlThe trend is obvious. The downward adjustment continues.(compare this to just two months ago) No surprise Iri july enso forecast. Expect a weak to moderate la nina by winter. bro, really? this trend is obvious? The trend you post is all over the map. |
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