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Post by hairball on Jul 18, 2011 16:02:19 GMT
During El Niño the atmosphere warms and there is more evaporation for cloud formation. So the tropical Pacific - the place where more energy enters the climate than anywhere else - is shielded by cloud. So the ocean cools.During La Niña the atmosphere cools, there is less evaporation so less cloud and what cloud does form is blown towards Asia by strong Easterly winds. So the ocean warms.The change in energy uptake by the ocean dwarfs the change in the atmosphere, so: The ocean+atmosphere cools during El Niño. The ocean+atmosphere warms during La Niña. Cross-sections through the equatorial Pacific for the 30 months until January 2011 - blue is more cloud, red is less cloud: 
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 18, 2011 16:33:44 GMT
This is exactly correct Hairball.
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Post by icefisher on Jul 18, 2011 17:14:01 GMT
Magellan,
Once again, when challenging the scientifc concensus, the burden is on the objector.
Magellan, what have you got? You've shown nothing so far.
If everybody waited for "the scientific consensus" nothing would ever get done Thermostat!
Its like reading "DON". Decade old news!
What one must define is "recent". If one defines it as the past 10,000 years, a mere nearly invisible drop of time in comparison to the geologic history of the earth the world is cooling.
If one defines it in decadal terms, the world is also cooling.
Only when you pick up the decade old news is the earth warming.
As I see it what that suggests is recent warming and cooling is well within the natural variability of recent geologic history and all during the ascent of mankind to the dominant species on earth.
Only within the context of failed climate forecasts and failed declarations that mankind's influence on the planet has overpowered natural variation is the world still warming.
Do you have something to refute this. . . . beyond your typical ignorance of it?
Judith Curry understands that something beyond decade old news is needed to alert the world to potential problems. Do you? If not why not?
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Post by AstroMet on Jul 19, 2011 4:43:49 GMT
Enso is a random event within a cyclical event. The PDO drives whether it is a La Nina or a El Nino. I know you must know this so I won't belabour the point. sigurdur, What I remain fixated on is the question of whether some forum member here can provide a scientific citation to justify their alternative view of reality; in this specific case ENSO. There is plenty of literature on ENSO. But it is a recurring practice here where denialists make such unsubstantiated assertions. Thermostat, actually there is little literature on ENSO, as it remains a relatively new climatological feature to conventional climatology. I would also appreciate it, for the sake of scientific discussion, if you would leave out ideological language, such as the label 'denialist' as it has no place in any scientific discussion. Since I was the forecaster who called ENSO four (4) years in advance of El Nino/La Nina I have a few things to say about ENSO: It is the Sun and the modulation of the planets that drive all climate changes on Earth. This is very important to remember. Anyone who is ignorant of the fact that astronomic forces drive their planet's entire climate does not have both oars in the water, nor all 52 cards in their deck. ENSO is not, nor has ever been 'a random event,' as you put it. If that were the case, then it would be impossible to forecast ENSO and I have proven that one can forecast ENSO well in advance. I know when the next ENSO will take place as well. I will forecast that event in advance too. Conventional climate scientists and amateurs are still trying to wrap their heads around ENSO, but astrometerologists know when these major oscillations occur in the Pacific because the oscillations are driven by astronomic forces. Regarding scientific citations - There are plenty of scientific papers written on the astronomic observations of the natural world. I would suggest you spend more time digesting papers which stretch back two hundred years. It would be wiser of you to observe your own local climate and the astronomic drivers at any time in order to discover what many expert forecasters know about the Earth's climate. However, at this time, the content of many of your comments continue to promote ideology. That is not scientific at all tstat. Using the term 'deniers' assumes that you have proven AGW and I remind you that you (nor has anyone else) proven conclusively that man-made warming is a scientific fact. So, for you to use the term 'denier' is a presumptive you have no right to use, or to label and tag onto anyone. The Earth has been warming since 1980-81. This is solar-forced and is a 36-year cycle, of which about six (6) years remain. We have passed through three decades of global warming. This has happened before many times in Earth's history and is caused by the Sun. Also, try to see Magellan's big picture view of ENSO, which would be to see the Pacific as a giant oven with a lid that oscillates - allowing for the retaining and release of heat that warms and cools the atmosphere by relation to the equatorial temperature fluxes of the ocean's oscillation. The impact on atmosphere affects the trade winds, that carry precipitation to various regions, or the lack thereof. ENSO is known for two major climate effects - a.) Heavy Precipitation (mainly northern plains & mountainous regions) with raised water tables, floods b.) Drought We've seen in the period 2009-2011 heavy record precipitation over about 50% of the Earth. Now, what follows is drought, and this has already begun in several nations, most notable on the Horn of Africa, parts of China and in the southern United States. There is no 'scientific consensus' on ENSO. All the major climatology centers, including NOAA/NWS, NCAR, NASA, etc., have never forecasted a single ENSO event, so I fail to see where there is any hint of 'scientific consensus' on this subject? The Sun is the main driver of all climate change and is the major player when it comes to the PDO, SOI and ENSO. |
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Post by magellan on Jul 19, 2011 5:09:27 GMT
During El Niño the atmosphere warms and there is more evaporation for cloud formation. So the tropical Pacific - the place where more energy enters the climate than anywhere else - is shielded by cloud. So the ocean cools.During La Niña the atmosphere cools, there is less evaporation so less cloud and what cloud does form is blown towards Asia by strong Easterly winds. So the ocean warms.The change in energy uptake by the ocean dwarfs the change in the atmosphere, so: The ocean+atmosphere cools during El Niño. The ocean+atmosphere warms during La Niña. Cross-sections through the equatorial Pacific for the 30 months until January 2011 - blue is more cloud, red is less cloud: yes, hairball, except that I recall reading deep on the matter a few years ago and it is much more involved; finally located the source for 'La Nina is not the opposite of El Nino'. bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2009/08/03/la-nina-events-are-not-the-opposite-of-el-nino-events/and bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2010/02/13/la-nina-the-underappreciated-portion-of-enso/Not much out there with more info on oceans than Tisdale. |
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Post by douglavers on Jul 19, 2011 5:36:19 GMT
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Post by richard on Jul 19, 2011 13:22:05 GMT
Thermostat, actually there is little literature on ENSO, as it remains a relatively new climatological feature to conventional climatology. <snip> ENSO is not, nor has ever been 'a random event,' as you put it. If that were the case, then it would be impossible to forecast ENSO and I have proven that one can forecast ENSO well in advance. I know when the next ENSO will take place as well. I will forecast that event in advance too. Conventional climate scientists and amateurs are still trying to wrap their heads around ENSO, but astrometerologists know when these major oscillations occur in the Pacific because the oscillations are driven by astronomic forces. Regarding scientific citations - There are plenty of scientific papers written on the astronomic observations of the natural world. I would suggest you spend more time digesting papers which stretch back two hundred years. So even though ENSO was unknown until recently, you and your ilk could determine ENSO and its effects 200 years ago. You know, your claims get more ridiculous all the time. |
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Post by AstroMet on Jul 19, 2011 15:34:55 GMT
Thermostat, actually there is little literature on ENSO, as it remains a relatively new climatological feature to conventional climatology. <snip> ENSO is not, nor has ever been 'a random event,' as you put it. If that were the case, then it would be impossible to forecast ENSO and I have proven that one can forecast ENSO well in advance. I know when the next ENSO will take place as well. I will forecast that event in advance too. Conventional climate scientists and amateurs are still trying to wrap their heads around ENSO, but astrometerologists know when these major oscillations occur in the Pacific because the oscillations are driven by astronomic forces. Regarding scientific citations - There are plenty of scientific papers written on the astronomic observations of the natural world. I would suggest you spend more time digesting papers which stretch back two hundred years. So even though ENSO was unknown until recently, you and your ilk could determine ENSO and its effects 200 years ago. You know, your claims get more ridiculous all the time. ENSO was unknown to conventional science but do not think that those in the past were ignorant of the climate and weather even though they did not have the Weather Channel to tell them how to prepare in advance so populations could eat. Your ignorance of this is amazing considering the fact that humanity has been around longer than the radio, telephone, television and the Internet. How do you suppose they forecasted the weather Richard? By scratching their arses and sticking fingers in the air? Do some reading of astronomic forecasting history and quit coming off as stupid on my forecast thread. If anything is 'ridiculous' Richard, it's that. |
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Post by twawki on Jul 20, 2011 4:07:56 GMT
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Post by richard on Jul 20, 2011 8:17:25 GMT
So even though ENSO was unknown until recently, you and your ilk could determine ENSO and its effects 200 years ago. You know, your claims get more ridiculous all the time. ENSO was unknown to conventional science but do not think that those in the past were ignorant of the climate and weather even though they did not have the Weather Channel to tell them how to prepare in advance so populations could eat. Your ignorance of this is amazing considering the fact that humanity has been around longer than the radio, telephone, television and the Internet. How do you suppose they forecasted the weather Richard? By scratching their arses and sticking fingers in the air? Do some reading of astronomic forecasting history and quit coming off as stupid on my forecast thread. If anything is 'ridiculous' Richard, it's that. I note that you said nothing of substance, per usual. Per usual you made outrageous claims. Per usual, you tossed baseless insults. You have acknowledged that ENSO is a critical factor in weather. Now, without resorting to your usual garbage, tell us all whether or not these ancient folks knew about ENSO. If they did, how? If they didn't, how did they forecast weather? |
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Post by AstroMet on Jul 21, 2011 3:00:53 GMT
ENSO was unknown to conventional science but do not think that those in the past were ignorant of the climate and weather even though they did not have the Weather Channel to tell them how to prepare in advance so populations could eat. Your ignorance of this is amazing considering the fact that humanity has been around longer than the radio, telephone, television and the Internet. How do you suppose they forecasted the weather Richard? By scratching their arses and sticking fingers in the air? Do some reading of astronomic forecasting history and quit coming off as stupid on my forecast thread. If anything is 'ridiculous' Richard, it's that. I note that you said nothing of substance, per usual. Per usual you made outrageous claims. Per usual, you tossed baseless insults. You have acknowledged that ENSO is a critical factor in weather. Now, without resorting to your usual garbage, tell us all whether or not these ancient folks knew about ENSO. If they did, how? If they didn't, how did they forecast weather? "My usual garbage?" And that isn't an insult from you? Go home little boy and play elsewhere. You're rude and too simple-minded for serious discussion on forecasting, the climate and weather. I have a life. I suggest you get one. Goodbye and good luck Richard. |
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Post by AstroMet on Jul 21, 2011 3:08:07 GMT
While it may 'appear' that La Nina may return we're at the end of the ENSO cycle of 2009-2011. This coming winter season, in the northern hemisphere will be on time for meteorological winter and end traditionally for the arrival of an early and warmer-than-average spring season in 2012. What's notable about the end of this particular La Nina phase has been the added cloud cover due to the volcanic particulates in the atmosphere. We've had at least a year of healthy volcanic activity worldwide and this has contributed to the climate conditions we've faced over the last year. |
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 21, 2011 3:15:27 GMT
astromet:
I disagree with you this time. I think we are in for another La Nina event. In fact, I don't think the previous La Nina event ever went away.
The CONUS is an area that is affected by La Nina in a dramatic way. Observation indicates that the La Nina pattern has not left the left coast, nor the heartland of CONUS.
And up here in the northland, we are experiencing exactly what one would expect for the onset of another of those suckers.
We would normally have had temps warmer than present, ok...the last few days finally warmed up, but it is forcast to cool down again.
Another thing......the Greenland High/Icelandic Low seem tied to La Nina. One would have never thought being they are so far apart, but from a bit of research I am finding a pattern. What tipped me off to look was that the NAO seems to affect the weather in Pakistan/Tibet.
This is much more complicated and intertwined that I had ever thought possible. One thing tho......during periods of La Nina, the Greenland high does not move to its normal summer parking spot.
This has also worked to move ice out of the Arctic.
Now....the clincher.........this seems to be affected by the magnetic fields.......so......
it has a celestrial base.
Just up your alley.
So with the info presented, what in the hell is going on?
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Post by AstroMet on Jul 21, 2011 3:25:12 GMT
astromet: I disagree with you this time. I think we are in for another La Nina event. In fact, I don't think the previous La Nina event ever went away. The CONUS is an area that is affected by La Nina in a dramatic way. Observation indicates that the La Nina pattern has not left the left coast, nor the heartland of CONUS. And up here in the northland, we are experiencing exactly what one would expect for the onset of another of those suckers. We would normally have had temps warmer than present, ok...the last few days finally warmed up, but it is forcast to cool down again. Another thing......the Greenland High/Icelandic Low seem tied to La Nina. One would have never thought being they are so far apart, but from a bit of research I am finding a pattern. What tipped me off to look was that the NAO seems to affect the weather in Pakistan/Tibet. This is much more complicated and intertwined that I had ever thought possible. One thing tho......during periods of La Nina, the Greenland high does not move to its normal summer parking spot. This has also worked to move ice out of the Arctic. Now....the clincher.........this seems to be affected by the magnetic fields.......so...... it has a celestrial base. Just up your alley. So with the info presented, what in the hell is going on? All of Earth's atmosphere is affected by magnetic fields, that's always been the case. As for La Nina - What's going on is that we are in a climate transition state and we remain inside this 36-year global warming cycle, now in the 30th year with six (6) more to come. However, we've run the course of the 2009-2011 ENSO, though La Nina lingers, that is quite normal for this oscillation event, which was a deep and unusual one and is ending as it began - unusually. This is all astronomic. We are entering a warmer-than-normal phase, which I expected, and next year will be even warmer than this current summer in the northern hemisphere. The volcanic activity since 2010 has caused cooler than normal climate fluctuations - in tandem with La Nina - to affect various northern regions. Look at the late spring/summer season in the UK or the cooler-than-normal summer in the Pacific Northwest, the heavy snow accumulations in the western mountains and the precipitation and cooler than normal temperatures along the northern-tier provinces of the Canadian Prairies. La Nina simply does not turn itself off like a light switch. The lingering climate effects from ENSO will remain this year in various regions affected, but we are in for a warmer, windy and drier year next year, that's what I'm forecasting. |
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Post by thermostat on Jul 21, 2011 3:41:31 GMT
astromet: I disagree with you this time. I think we are in for another La Nina event. In fact, I don't think the previous La Nina event ever went away. The CONUS is an area that is affected by La Nina in a dramatic way. Observation indicates that the La Nina pattern has not left the left coast, nor the heartland of CONUS. And up here in the northland, we are experiencing exactly what one would expect for the onset of another of those suckers. We would normally have had temps warmer than present, ok...the last few days finally warmed up, but it is forcast to cool down again. Another thing......the Greenland High/Icelandic Low seem tied to La Nina. One would have never thought being they are so far apart, but from a bit of research I am finding a pattern. What tipped me off to look was that the NAO seems to affect the weather in Pakistan/Tibet. This is much more complicated and intertwined that I had ever thought possible. One thing tho......during periods of La Nina, the Greenland high does not move to its normal summer parking spot. This has also worked to move ice out of the Arctic. Now....the clincher.........this seems to be affected by the magnetic fields.......so...... it has a celestrial base. Just up your alley. So with the info presented, what in the hell is going on? All of Earth's atmosphere is affected by magnetic fields, that's always been the case. As for La Nina - What's going on is that we are in a climate transition state and we remain inside this 36-year global warming cycle, now in the 30th year with six (6) more to come. However, we've run the course of the 2009-2011 ENSO, though La Nina lingers, that is quite normal for this oscillation event, which was a deep and unusual one and is ending as it began - unusually. This is all astronomic. We are entering a warmer-than-normal phase, which I expected, and next year will be even warmer than this current summer in the northern hemisphere. The volcanic activity since 2010 has caused cooler than normal climate fluctuations - in tandem with La Nina - to affect various northern regions. Look at the late spring/summer season in the UK or the cooler-than-normal summer in the Pacific Northwest, the heavy snow accumulations in the western mountains and the precipitation and cooler than normal temperatures along the northern-tier provinces of the Canadian Prairies. La Nina simply does not turn itself off like a light switch. The lingering climate effects from ENSO will remain this year in various regions affected, but we are in for a warmer, windy and drier year next year, that's what I'm forecasting. astromet It is quite fascinating to read that you have all of this figured out! fyi, climatologists wish they were as cognizant as you. Let me suggest that you assemble your insights into a scientific publication. This would allow a broader audience of interested practicitioners to benefit from your deep understanding. |
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