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Post by thermostat on Sept 2, 2011 4:53:44 GMT
As I suspected, you resorted to insults and non-truths and irrelevancies. If the sun disappeared tomorrow is a ridiculous speculation. The question is whether the sun changes fast enough to be a driver of climate change on human scales. For you to have any credibility, you'd have to show not only that the sun does change quickly enough to be a factor, but that all other factors somehow fade into the background, and also that there is a technique currently available (apparently available only to you and your friends) which allows one to predict said changes in advance. Fat friggin chance, but I'm always open to new ideas. All I asked was for the tutorial you allegedly posted here. You can't seem to point to it, and a search of the site doesn't show it up on first pass. I bet that neither you nor any of your 3 fans can actually point to it, and I'd bet the ranch that none of you could defend it if it does exist. Since you aren't any good at pointing to your own alleged post, I'll broaden the field. Can anybody here remember an actual tutorial posted by or pointed to by Astromet? My bet is that this will come up empty since your entire tutorial seems to be "It's the sun and I can predict solar behaviour - and since it's been done for centuries, I can do it without a computer or other modern devices." Amazing how such valuable science has been neglected for centuries! Again, has anybody seen any explanation by Astromet as to how his astrometeorology works? Everyone will be waiting. Again, you are ignorant of the history of meteorology, invented by astrologers. I suggest that rather than mouthing off with your ignorance, that you increase your IQ by learning that which you do not know. Two ears, two eyes, one tongue - that should tell you a lot. It presently looks like the next event in the central pacific will be of significance. |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 2, 2011 4:57:55 GMT
First, I answered a question. It wasn't a prediction. Forecasting is not a video game 'commonsense,' as all true forecasters know. As for ENSO, we've already had one, and I forecasted that back in 2006, so you don't have to 'wait six years' to see if that is true now do you? We've already been through ENSO. As for my tutorial, you can wait until hell freezes over for all I care for me to get it to you. You can easily find it here on this board and I'm not going to go find it for you either. I have better things to do than babysit you. Get off your duff and do that yourself since you say that it is "ridiculous global warming is solar-forced." What is ridiculous is the fact that you actually believe that it is not - and that is where you are 100% wrong. If the Sun disappeared tomorrow dipstick - you surely would discover who is "ridiculous" and whom is not. Talk about a lack of "commonsense." Geez. As I suspected, you resorted to insults and non-truths and irrelevancies. If the sun disappeared tomorrow is a ridiculous speculation. The question is whether the sun changes fast enough to be a driver of climate change on human scales. For you to have any credibility, you'd have to show not only that the sun does change quickly enough to be a factor, but that all other factors somehow fade into the background, and also that there is a technique currently available (apparently available only to you and your friends) which allows one to predict said changes in advance. Fat friggin chance, but I'm always open to new ideas. All I asked was for the tutorial you allegedly posted here. You can't seem to point to it, and a search of the site doesn't show it up on first pass. I bet that neither you nor any of your 3 fans can actually point to it, and I'd bet the ranch that none of you could defend it if it does exist. Since you aren't any good at pointing to your own alleged post, I'll broaden the field. Can anybody here remember an actual tutorial posted by or pointed to by Astromet? My bet is that this will come up empty since your entire tutorial seems to be "It's the sun and I can predict solar behaviour - and since it's been done for centuries, I can do it without a computer or other modern devices." Amazing how such valuable science has been neglected for centuries! Again, has anybody seen any explanation by Astromet as to how his astrometeorology works? Everyone will be waiting. All you had to do was to use the search engine on this board 'commonsense' rather than mouthing off. Just how old are you? You sound quite young and inexperienced. See -> solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=globalwarming&action=display&thread=986 |
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Post by commonsense on Sept 2, 2011 6:34:36 GMT
As I suspected, you resorted to insults and non-truths and irrelevancies. If the sun disappeared tomorrow is a ridiculous speculation. The question is whether the sun changes fast enough to be a driver of climate change on human scales. For you to have any credibility, you'd have to show not only that the sun does change quickly enough to be a factor, but that all other factors somehow fade into the background, and also that there is a technique currently available (apparently available only to you and your friends) which allows one to predict said changes in advance. Fat friggin chance, but I'm always open to new ideas. All I asked was for the tutorial you allegedly posted here. You can't seem to point to it, and a search of the site doesn't show it up on first pass. I bet that neither you nor any of your 3 fans can actually point to it, and I'd bet the ranch that none of you could defend it if it does exist. Since you aren't any good at pointing to your own alleged post, I'll broaden the field. Can anybody here remember an actual tutorial posted by or pointed to by Astromet? My bet is that this will come up empty since your entire tutorial seems to be "It's the sun and I can predict solar behaviour - and since it's been done for centuries, I can do it without a computer or other modern devices." Amazing how such valuable science has been neglected for centuries! Again, has anybody seen any explanation by Astromet as to how his astrometeorology works? Everyone will be waiting. All you had to do was to use the search engine on this board 'commonsense' rather than mouthing off. Just how old are you? You sound quite young and inexperienced. See -> solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=globalwarming&action=display&thread=986Ahh, but to use the search engine to find a tutorial not labelled "tutorial" is an exercise in futility. I could have looked at every one of your posts over the last (how many?) years, but that certainly wouldn't have been productive. I do appreciate that you finally posted the link, and I gave it a first read. So far it seems to make outlandish claims and notes a few facts, the most significant being that the moon has gravity which affects all aspects of the planet. The claims that star locations are key to the technique appear "far out", as do the claims about other planets, such as Mars. Getting from the singular positions of extremely distant objects (many light-years away) to specific forecasts of small areas of the planet is quite the leap too. I'll read it a few more times and will have some questions and comments for you shortly. I hope others do the same. Thanks again for joining the discussion. |
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Post by throttleup on Sept 2, 2011 12:41:54 GMT
Theodore,
A few questions if I may. I'm a little unclear on some things you stated and I would like to understand better what you mean by a few things you stated in your post above.
"We're past ENSO..."
As I understand it, ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) is by its very name, an oscillation. Are you saying that ENSO is expected to return to (or stay at) neutral conditions? To me the terminology is confusing and I'd like to better understand your meaning.
"another climate regime..."
By this term do you expect some other conditions/drivers to dominate in place of ENSO?
Do you expect ENSO to be a minor or non-player once "global cooling officially starts"?
Thank you.
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 2, 2011 23:08:37 GMT
Ahh, but to use the search engine to find a tutorial not labelled "tutorial" is an exercise in futility. I could have looked at every one of your posts over the last (how many?) years, but that certainly wouldn't have been productive. I do appreciate that you finally posted the link, and I gave it a first read. So far it seems to make outlandish claims and notes a few facts, the most significant being that the moon has gravity which affects all aspects of the planet. The claims that star locations are key to the technique appear "far out", as do the claims about other planets, such as Mars. Getting from the singular positions of extremely distant objects (many light-years away) to specific forecasts of small areas of the planet is quite the leap too. I'll read it a few more times and will have some questions and comments for you shortly. I hope others do the same. Thanks again for joining the discussion. In order to have an 'opinion' on any topic - particularly on astronomic forecasting - it would behoove you to first study it, in-depth. Learn to read a scientific astronomic ephemeris and to then mind and closely note the climate and weather conditions of your locality, then regional, then worldwide. Do that first. Then make the leap. That is how you learn. |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 2, 2011 23:24:10 GMT
Theodore, A few questions if I may. I'm a little unclear on some things you stated and I would like to understand better what you mean by a few things you stated in your post above. "We're past ENSO..." As I understand it, ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) is by its very name, an oscillation. Are you saying that ENSO is expected to return to (or stay at) neutral conditions? To me the terminology is confusing and I'd like to better understand your meaning. "another climate regime..." By this term do you expect some other conditions/drivers to dominate in place of ENSO? Do you expect ENSO to be a minor or non-player once "global cooling officially starts"? Thank you. Hi Throttle, Yes, this most recent ENSO (2009-2011) will be nearly back to neutral. We are past the worst of it. We will not see another ENSO of significance until after 2017. That is my long-range forecast on the next ENSO. I do expect the next climate regime to be the last six years of global warming - solar-forced. This means warmer-than-normal temperatures, less precipitation with drier conditions and extreme drought in various regions of the world. The driver here will be the Sun and it is waking up gradually out of minimum into a new active phase. We will see some anomalous cooling that are signs of the global cooling to come, but that does not officially start until 2017 in my long-range forecast. As for the recent ENSO, as I've said, we will return to neutral conditions and are past the worst of El Nino and La Nina. |
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Post by glc on Sept 3, 2011 0:19:33 GMT
Hi Throttle,
Yes, this most recent ENSO (2009-2011) will be nearly back to neutral. We are past the worst of it. We will not see another ENSO of significance until after 2017. That is my long-range forecast on the next ENSO.
Note
"this most recent ENSO" ??
and
"We will not see another ENSO of significance until after 2017"
Is it just me or do others think that the above quotes suggest Astromet hasn't the faintest idea what he's talking about?
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Post by hairball on Sept 3, 2011 1:10:06 GMT
Hi Throttle,
Yes, this most recent ENSO (2009-2011) will be nearly back to neutral. We are past the worst of it. We will not see another ENSO of significance until after 2017. That is my long-range forecast on the next ENSO.
Note "this most recent ENSO" ?? and "We will not see another ENSO of significance until after 2017" Is it just me or do others think that the above quotes suggest Astromet hasn't the faintest idea what he's talking about? GLC, whilst I'm convinced that Theodore is full of hot air, he might have a get-out clause in the sense that La Niña is the normal state of affairs (if the entire Earth were covered in water to a great depth). In anywho, I'm sure his clients in the sometime-desert parts of the United States will be delighted to hear that the livestock they care for won't die of thirst next year. Because the non-astrometeorological people offer a far more depressing forecast. |
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Post by commonsense on Sept 3, 2011 2:41:17 GMT
From my long-range astronomical calculations for North America, I've forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year. This is caused mainly by the activity of the Sun, <and> For over two years, I continued to forecast that a new El Nino was on the way from my astronomic calculations. This ENSO will dominate the world's weather events through all of 2010, into 2011 and 2012 <and> This summer and autumn is a good time to get your weather equipment set and tuned up. It is also essential for those living in regions where El Nino is known to have particular weather effects to prepare your emergency plans and store supplies for the latter half of 2009 and all through the year 2010, 2011, and 2012. Further preventive plans will need to be made for additional damaging weather events related to the impacts of ENSO in the years 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016. The shifts in storm tracks from El Nino (2010-2012) <and> Although I have forecasted the return of El Nino in 2009, into 2010, and 2011, I am also forecasting a La Nina event to follow in the Northern Hemispheric Winter of 2011 to take place in the months of February, March, and April of that year. <and> I have been forecasting for several years now that while the Earth will see another very strong El Nino, <and> The effects of the coming El Nino will be nearly as substantial as the last one in 1997-98, according to my calculations, and will come close to rivaling that climate event, with lingering weather problems as a result beginning in the latter half of 2009 through to about June 2012. From the astronomical configurations, it appears that the ENSO of 2010-2012 will be a combination of the ENSO climate events of 1982-83 and that of 1997-1998. <and> October 2010's El Nino climate <and> I expect many more regions to experience significant flooding in a year dominated by El Nino. This particular El Nino, from my analysis, appears to be a combination of the 1982-83 ENSO and the 1997-98 ENSO, Let's get back to forecasts. Please look at Astromet's initial post. I've pasted a few of his predictions above. Note that he thought El Nino would extend through June 2012 and would be quite strong. Obviously he was 100% wrong. He also predicted that ENSO events would be quite damaging in 2013-2016. Obviously he's inconsistent since he now says that there will be ENSO neutral conditions until 2017. Also note that he often couches his predictions by using the meaningless prediction of an ENSO instead of the proper and actually descriptive terms El Nino and La Nina. Amazingly, see above where he forecast simultaneous El Nino and La Nina events, which is a physical impossibility. Yes, it is obvious that Astromet couldn't forecast his way out of a paper bag and then changes his predictions to suit his purposes and hopes nobody will notice. I invite people to look at the weather forecasts in his initial post and to see if they have come to pass. Given his truly abysmal record in predicting El Nino and La Nina, I suspect that his record is poor at best. |
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Post by glc on Sept 3, 2011 9:02:34 GMT
GLC, whilst I'm convinced that Theodore is full of hot air, he might have a get-out clause in the sense that La Niña is the normal state of affairs (if the entire Earth were covered in water to a great depth).
That's not what he's saying (or implying) since he talks about "this most recent ENSO (2009-2011)"
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 3, 2011 21:04:39 GMT
From my long-range astronomical calculations for North America, I've forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year. This is caused mainly by the activity of the Sun, <and> For over two years, I continued to forecast that a new El Nino was on the way from my astronomic calculations. This ENSO will dominate the world's weather events through all of 2010, into 2011 and 2012 <and> This summer and autumn is a good time to get your weather equipment set and tuned up. It is also essential for those living in regions where El Nino is known to have particular weather effects to prepare your emergency plans and store supplies for the latter half of 2009 and all through the year 2010, 2011, and 2012. Further preventive plans will need to be made for additional damaging weather events related to the impacts of ENSO in the years 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016. The shifts in storm tracks from El Nino (2010-2012) <and> Although I have forecasted the return of El Nino in 2009, into 2010, and 2011, I am also forecasting a La Nina event to follow in the Northern Hemispheric Winter of 2011 to take place in the months of February, March, and April of that year. <and> I have been forecasting for several years now that while the Earth will see another very strong El Nino, <and> The effects of the coming El Nino will be nearly as substantial as the last one in 1997-98, according to my calculations, and will come close to rivaling that climate event, with lingering weather problems as a result beginning in the latter half of 2009 through to about June 2012. From the astronomical configurations, it appears that the ENSO of 2010-2012 will be a combination of the ENSO climate events of 1982-83 and that of 1997-1998. <and> October 2010's El Nino climate <and> I expect many more regions to experience significant flooding in a year dominated by El Nino. This particular El Nino, from my analysis, appears to be a combination of the 1982-83 ENSO and the 1997-98 ENSO, Let's get back to forecasts. Please look at Astromet's initial post. I've pasted a few of his predictions above. Note that he thought El Nino would extend through June 2012 and would be quite strong. Obviously he was 100% wrong. He also predicted that ENSO events would be quite damaging in 2013-2016. Obviously he's inconsistent since he now says that there will be ENSO neutral conditions until 2017. Also note that he often couches his predictions by using the meaningless prediction of an ENSO instead of the proper and actually descriptive terms El Nino and La Nina. Amazingly, see above where he forecast simultaneous El Nino and La Nina events, which is a physical impossibility. Yes, it is obvious that Astromet couldn't forecast his way out of a paper bag and then changes his predictions to suit his purposes and hopes nobody will notice. I invite people to look at the weather forecasts in his initial post and to see if they have come to pass. Given his truly abysmal record in predicting El Nino and La Nina, I suspect that his record is poor at best. Get your facts straight. I forecasted ENSO for 2009-2011, an El Nino to be followed by La Nina. I did that from back in 2006. That's what exactly we've had El Nino followed by La Nina. Your nickel-and-diming will not change that fact. Moreover, when ENSO wanes, it does not simply turn off like a lightbulb. The oscillation is a major climate event which lingers as it wanes. You are seeing that with La Nina. As ENSO wanes, regions of the world are affected, such as with drought, as you can observe (if you are paying attention to the climate, which I doubt) in southeastern Texas. The effects of ENSO will last into 2012. This is related to La Nina, which is waning, but, like anyone who plays with models like children, you treat climate events like switches, as if they turn themselves off immediately and that's that. So, it is not a wonder why you are ignorant of forecasting and the Earth's climate and sound so stupid when you comment. You will observe as ENSO wanes (not turn off like a light-switch) that drought spreads because of the lack of precipitation, as we see in Texas, and the Horn Of Africa, or in China for instance. These are the effects of ENSO - forced astronomically. The effects of ENSO will extend into 2012, mainly by means of drought, as it wanes. This has happened before in previous ENSO events as trade winds were altered. It takes some months after neutral values have fully established themselves before the winds give way to their east-west flows - gradually bringing precipitation to drought-stricken regions. We will be in 2012, and if you will notice by that time (if your eyes are open) there will be drought-affected regions at that time from the aftereffects of ENSO. All of this is solar-forced (something you are in full denial of as you stated) so it is not a wonder why you don't have both your oars in the water. If anything is "abysmal" kiddo - it's your behavior and ignorance. That's why you're not going anywhere and that is why you lack "common sense." Get some. Listen kiddo, you will not learn anything acting like an ass. I would appreciate it if you would quit filling my forecast thread with your stupidity. You do not learn that way and it makes you look and sound like a child. Is that what you are aiming for? Because if it is, then you have succeeded. Is that what you wanted to be when you grew up? An ass? Stop playing on the board 'commonsense' and get a life. The only thing people are noticing is your preference for blowing lots of hot air. Now if you keep coming off like an not a very nice person I will put you on ignore because we have better things to do than watch you play with yourself. |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 3, 2011 21:06:02 GMT
Hi Throttle,
Yes, this most recent ENSO (2009-2011) will be nearly back to neutral. We are past the worst of it. We will not see another ENSO of significance until after 2017. That is my long-range forecast on the next ENSO.
Note "this most recent ENSO" ?? and "We will not see another ENSO of significance until after 2017" Is it just me or do others think that the above quotes suggest Astromet hasn't the faintest idea what he's talking about? This most recent ENSO, is the 2009-2011 event: That's the El Nino we had in 2009/2010 and the La Nina that followed in 2010/2011. Is there a problem with you understanding that Glc? |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 3, 2011 21:26:52 GMT
Hi Throttle,
Yes, this most recent ENSO (2009-2011) will be nearly back to neutral. We are past the worst of it. We will not see another ENSO of significance until after 2017. That is my long-range forecast on the next ENSO.
Note "this most recent ENSO" ?? and "We will not see another ENSO of significance until after 2017" Is it just me or do others think that the above quotes suggest Astromet hasn't the faintest idea what he's talking about? GLC, whilst I'm convinced that Theodore is full of hot air, he might have a get-out clause in the sense that La Niña is the normal state of affairs (if the entire Earth were covered in water to a great depth). In anywho, I'm sure his clients in the sometime-desert parts of the United States will be delighted to hear that the livestock they care for won't die of thirst next year. Because the non-astrometeorological people offer a far more depressing forecast. I haven't a clue as to what you are talking about hairball. Drought is something I've constantly forecasted and talked about for over a year on this board, so frankly just what are you talking about? Some of you guys, who are not forecasters by the way, act and comment as if you have to be 100% percent for anything to be taken seriously. That is the view of a child, and of those who talk much too much. Talk is cheap. No pitcher throws a strike on every pitch. No quarterback throws a TD on every pass. No one forecaster makes 100% on every forecast. The world is a big place and those who go on being critics are always those who sit on the sidelines, but never touch the field with the rest knocking some heads. So, rather than sit back and be critical, if you can do better than the true forecasters: be my guest. I would love to see some of you actually make a single forecast for your own locales that turns out true, but I sure haven't seen it. All I've seen is lots of jive critical talk and opinion and again - talk is cheap. |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 3, 2011 22:47:23 GMT
Monday June 24th 1974 "However widely the weather varies from place to place and time to time, when meteorologists take an average of temperatures around the globe they find that the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades. The trend shows no indication of reversing. Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age." From Time magazine: www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,944914,00.html#ixzz1WiK6kLlS Also a cover, supposedly, from Time magazine April 3, 1977 webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:C4gm9_be2ZQJ:katypundit.com/archives/8387+how+to+survive+the+coming+ice+age+time&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-aAnother www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,947122,00.html The Guardian, Sept. 3, 2011 -- The UK saw a fine spring, a wet summer and an early autumn in 2011, a pattern forecasters say is difficult to predict.
It has been a year that has seen weather patterns turned upside down.
In 2011, Britain had one of the finest springs on record. This was followed by one of our worst-ever summers. And the Met Office says there is more to come.
At least, that is the message from forecasters and meteorologists who are studying the twists and turns of the British weather. The strange patterns of rain, wind and sunshine that have swept the nation reveal a fundamental truth, they have found.
The UK is one of the most erratic, changeable places on Earth when it comes to weather. Inverted patterns of rain, sun and wind are simple facts of life and we had better get used to them.
In 2009, somewhat shamefacedly, the Met Office decided to withdraw its seasonal forecasting service, amid recriminations over baking summers that had mysteriously failed to materialise.
But there are good reasons why British weather forecasters often get it wrong. "We are a small island, in a temperate climate, at a high latitude with one of the world's biggest oceans on one side of us, and a huge continent on the other," said Helen Chivers, a forecaster at the Met Office.
"The combination makes it very difficult to predict weather here. We can do it in the short term but not over long periods, unlike other parts of the world.
For example, in the United States the weather is far easier to forecast because the country forms part of a very large landmass."
This point was backed by Alan Thorpe, director of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. "In some parts of the tropics, you can forecast weather up to four weeks away, but not in the UK. The best you can hope for is about five days to a week."
A key problem facing forecasters in Britain is the jet streams: these are narrow ribbons of fast-flowing air that are found at altitudes of around 35,000ft.
They play a key role in bringing weather systems to Britain from America across the Atlantic. "The problem is that jet streams do not flow in straight lines.
They can often coil like snakes – and that is what happened at the beginning of this year," said Chivers.
"They coiled above Britain in March, April and the first half of May and trapped a region of high pressure over the country. That brought fine weather to the country for those months."
Then the jet streams straightened out and pushed rainy weather across the Atlantic – dumping it on Britain.
"The result was a bad summer," said Chivers. "However, from what we can see at present the prospects look better for September, if that is a consolation."
A further factor bedevilling UK forecasts has been uncovered by scientists based at the National Oceanographic Centre in Southampton.
Since 2004 they have been monitoring the flow and temperature of ocean currents as they pass through sensors arranged in rows and at different depths across the Atlantic Ocean at latitude 26 degrees north. The project is known as Rapid.
"Essentially warm water flows north near the surface of the Atlantic and goes up the eastern coast of America.
Then it crosses the ocean to sweep over western Britain before it cools and sinks and then flows south deep down in the Atlantic," said oceanographer Dr Valbourg Byfield.
"We experience this as the Gulf Stream and it is a key influence on our climate."
Rapid was set up to determine if freezing water, from icecaps that are melting in response to climate change, had started to influence the northern flow of the Gulf Stream.
In other words, scientists wanted to know if global warming was going to disrupt the current and cool our climate. However, they have had no chance to do that yet.
"We have found that the flow of warm water in the Atlantic fluctuates massively over very short periods," said Byfield. "Within a couple of weeks, the flow can double. Then a few weeks later it can virtually disappear.
"This rapid fluctuation makes it very difficult to determine a long-term picture, though we hope when we have finished taking measurements in 2014 that we will have a better idea."
The crucial point about the discovery of these intense short-term fluctuations is that they add another confusing variable to the equations used by meteorologists to try to forecast British weather, a point backed by Thorpe.
"Every summer, every year, we get different weather and we always want to know what factors were responsible. But you have to accept that we are in the centre of a very variable system.
Fluctuations happen all the time. We are trying to understand them, but that will take time." Or as Mark Twain said: "Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get."
Britons may therefore curse their weather for its frequently bizarre swings but we should consider the alternatives. For example, summers and winters in New York are very predictable – and very unpleasant.
The former are searingly hot to the extent that visitors have to dart from store to store to make the most of air conditioning.
Then, in winter, the freezing cold forces visitors to dart from store to store to enjoy their heating.
Our weather may be less predictable, but is bearable for most of the year. |
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Post by commonsense on Sept 3, 2011 23:27:01 GMT
Get your facts straight. I forecasted ENSO for 2009-2011, an El Nino to be followed by La Nina. That's what we've had. Moreover, when ENSO wanes, it does not simply turn off like a lightbulb. The oscillation is a major climate event which lingers as it wanes. You are seeing that with La Nina. As ENSO wanes, regions of the world are affected, such as with drought, as you can observe (if you are paying attention to the climate, which I doubt) in southeastern Texas. The effects of ENSO will last into 2012. This is related to La Nina, which is waning, but, like anyone who plays with models like children, you treat climate events like switches, as if they turn themselves off immediately and that's that. So, it is not a wonder why you are ignorant of forecasting and the Earth's climate and sound so stupid when you comment. You will observe as ENSO wanes (not turn off like a light-switch) that drought spreads because of the lack of precipitation, as we see in Texas, and the Horn Of Africa, or in China for instance. These are the effects of ENSO - forced astronomically. The effects of ENSO will extend into 2012, mainly by means of drought, as it wanes. This has happened before in previous ENSO events as trade winds were altered. It takes some months after neutral values have fully established themselves before the winds give way to their east-west flows - gradually bringing precipitation to drought-stricken regions. We will be in 2012, and if you will notice by that time (if your eyes are open) there will be drought-affected regions at that time from the aftereffects of ENSO. All of this is solar-forced (something you are in full denial of as you stated) so it is not a wonder why you don't have both your oars in the water. If anything is "abysmal" kiddo - it's your behavior and ignorance. That's why you're not going anywhere and that is why you lack "common sense." Get some. Listen kiddo, you will not learn anything acting like an ass. I would appreciate it if you would quit filling my forecast thread with your stupidity. You do not learn that way and it makes you look and sound like a child. Is that what you are aiming for? Because if it is, then you have succeeded. Is that what you wanted to be when you grew up? An ass? Stop playing on the board 'commonsense' and get a life. The only thing people are noticing is your preference for blowing lots of hot air. Let's try again. A direct cut and paste from your first post on this thread: "From my long-range astronomical calculations for North America, I've forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year. " You also predicted that El Nino (or possibly its effects) would last through 2012 here: "The shifts in storm tracks from El Nino (2010-2012)" Obviously you were wrong. We've been having a very strong La Nina instead. Care to refute that? NEXT: "Further preventive plans will need to be made for additional damaging weather events related to the impacts of ENSO in the years 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016." compared to, on Aug 24, 2011: "We will not see another significant ENSO until after 2017 according to my long-range astronomic calculations." Please resolve the obvious contradiction. NEXT: "This particular El Nino, from my analysis, appears to be a combination of the 1982-83 ENSO and the 1997-98 ENSO," and "The effects of the coming El Nino will be nearly as substantial as the last one in 1997-98," Yet the last El Nino was mediocre, not anything like the 1998 El Nino. Again, failure of your forecast. Anybody disagree? NEXT: I decided to check on a randomly selected forecast for weather: "March 2011 is a particularly brutal month of arctic temperatures, and winter storms across North America." I checked the data here: climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/state-map-display.plNone of the US was much below normal, with only North and South Dakota and Wisconsin being below normal. Roughly half the country was normal, about half was above normal, and New Mexico was much above normal. Yet again, failure. NEXT: I noticed this little gem: "This will be an historic solar maximum lasting to about the year 2015-16 - three years longer than expected by most scientists." I checked the current status with NASA solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtmlThey currently predict a maximum of 70, which is 1/3 of an historic maximum. Since it still is in the future, we'll have to wait and see. I'm just alerting everyone to note your claim since you claim to have tremendous powers of forecasting the sun. Let's just say that your prediction is looking worse and worse every day. By the way, in order to make accurate forecasts, it seems obvious that one would have to know the future to much better than "about the year 2015-2016". Obviously, if it really is the sun that drives weather, then such a huge range of possible maximums would yield vastly different weather. Please explain. |
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