*EL NINO/LA NINA FORECAST 2010-2011*

[thermostat]

Sept 3, 2011 23:27:01 GMT commonsense said:

Sept 3, 2011 21:04:39 GMT AstroMet said:

Get your facts straight. I forecasted ENSO for 2009-2011, an El Nino to be followed by La Nina. That's what we've had.

Moreover, when ENSO wanes, it does not simply turn off like a lightbulb. The oscillation is a major climate event which lingers as it wanes. You are seeing that with La Nina.

As ENSO wanes, regions of the world are affected, such as with drought, as you can observe (if you are paying attention to the climate, which I doubt) in southeastern Texas. The effects of ENSO will last into 2012.

This is related to La Nina, which is waning, but, like anyone who plays with models like children, you treat climate events like switches, as if they turn themselves off immediately and that's that.

So, it is not a wonder why you are ignorant of forecasting and the Earth's climate and sound so stupid when you comment.

You will observe as ENSO wanes (not turn off like a light-switch) that drought spreads because of the lack of precipitation, as we see in Texas, and the Horn Of Africa, or in China for instance. These are the effects of ENSO - forced astronomically.

The effects of ENSO will extend into 2012, mainly by means of drought, as it wanes. This has happened before in previous ENSO events as trade winds were altered.

It takes some months after neutral values have fully established themselves before the winds give way to their east-west flows - gradually bringing precipitation to drought-stricken regions.

We will be in 2012, and if you will notice by that time (if your eyes are open) there will be drought-affected regions at that time from the aftereffects of ENSO.

All of this is solar-forced (something you are in full denial of as you stated) so it is not a wonder why you don't have both your oars in the water.

If anything is "abysmal" kiddo - it's your behavior and ignorance. That's why you're not going anywhere and that is why you lack "common sense."

Get some.

Listen kiddo, you will not learn anything acting like an ass. I would appreciate it if you would quit filling my forecast thread with your stupidity.

You do not learn that way and it makes you look and sound like a child. Is that what you are aiming for? Because if it is, then you have succeeded. Is that what you wanted to be when you grew up? An ass?

Stop playing on the board 'commonsense' and get a life. The only thing people are noticing is your preference for blowing lots of hot air.

Let's try again. A direct cut and paste from your first post on this thread:
"From my long-range astronomical calculations for North America, I've forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year. "
You also predicted that El Nino (or possibly its effects) would last through 2012 here:
"The shifts in storm tracks from El Nino (2010-2012)"

Obviously you were wrong. We've been having a very strong La Nina instead. Care to refute that?

NEXT:
"Further preventive plans will need to be made for additional damaging weather events related to the impacts of ENSO in the years 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016."
compared to, on Aug 24, 2011:
"We will not see another significant ENSO until after 2017 according to my long-range astronomic calculations."

Please resolve the obvious contradiction.

NEXT:
"This particular El Nino, from my analysis, appears to be a combination of the 1982-83 ENSO and the 1997-98 ENSO,"
and
"The effects of the coming El Nino will be nearly as substantial as the last one in 1997-98,"

Yet the last El Nino was mediocre, not anything like the 1998 El Nino. Again, failure of your forecast. Anybody disagree?

NEXT:
I decided to check on a randomly selected forecast for weather:
"March 2011 is a particularly brutal month of arctic temperatures, and winter storms across North America."

I checked the data here:
climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/state-map-display.pl
None of the US was much below normal, with only North and South Dakota and Wisconsin being below normal. Roughly half the country was normal, about half was above normal, and New Mexico was much above normal. Yet again, failure.

NEXT:
I noticed this little gem:
"This will be an historic solar maximum lasting to about the year 2015-16 - three years longer than expected by most scientists."
I checked the current status with NASA
solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
They currently predict a maximum of 70, which is 1/3 of an historic maximum. Since it still is in the future, we'll have to wait and see. I'm just alerting everyone to note your claim since you claim to have tremendous powers of forecasting the sun. Let's just say that your prediction is looking worse and worse every day. By the way, in order to make accurate forecasts, it seems obvious that one would have to know the future to much better than "about the year 2015-2016". Obviously, if it really is the sun that drives weather, then such a huge range of possible maximums would yield vastly different weather. Please explain.

I agree with Commonsense, the present solar cycle indicates 'a quiet sun'. Further, if the sun were actually driving our climate the climate of the past half century would have been quite different from what actually occurred. The recent decade obviously provides the strongest evidence that the sun is not driving our climate. Commensense is right.

[sigurdur]

Thermostat:
I can't agree with you. The sun was headed to maximum, and was in maximum till this cycle. The evidence is measureable with temperatures, as the last 15 years have been flat in temp. ARGO data shows us the ocean is flat with a downward bias in temps. Seems we have hit the pinacle for now, and the next hundred years or so will be a slow cooling trend.

[thermostat]

Sept 4, 2011 3:35:46 GMT sigurdur said:

Thermostat:
I can't agree with you. The sun was headed to maximum, and was in maximum till this cycle. The evidence is measureable with temperatures, as the last 15 years have been flat in temp. ARGO data shows us the ocean is flat with a downward bias in temps. Seems we have hit the pinacle for now, and the next hundred years or so will be a slow cooling trend.

Sigurdur,

Fascinating. It would be interesting to see some scientific references.

[AstroMet]

Sept 3, 2011 23:27:01 GMT commonsense said:

Sept 3, 2011 21:04:39 GMT AstroMet said:

Get your facts straight. I forecasted ENSO for 2009-2011, an El Nino to be followed by La Nina. That's what we've had.

Moreover, when ENSO wanes, it does not simply turn off like a lightbulb. The oscillation is a major climate event which lingers as it wanes. You are seeing that with La Nina.

As ENSO wanes, regions of the world are affected, such as with drought, as you can observe (if you are paying attention to the climate, which I doubt) in southeastern Texas. The effects of ENSO will last into 2012.

This is related to La Nina, which is waning, but, like anyone who plays with models like children, you treat climate events like switches, as if they turn themselves off immediately and that's that.

So, it is not a wonder why you are ignorant of forecasting and the Earth's climate and sound so stupid when you comment.

You will observe as ENSO wanes (not turn off like a light-switch) that drought spreads because of the lack of precipitation, as we see in Texas, and the Horn Of Africa, or in China for instance. These are the effects of ENSO - forced astronomically.

The effects of ENSO will extend into 2012, mainly by means of drought, as it wanes. This has happened before in previous ENSO events as trade winds were altered.

It takes some months after neutral values have fully established themselves before the winds give way to their east-west flows - gradually bringing precipitation to drought-stricken regions.

We will be in 2012, and if you will notice by that time (if your eyes are open) there will be drought-affected regions at that time from the aftereffects of ENSO.

All of this is solar-forced (something you are in full denial of as you stated) so it is not a wonder why you don't have both your oars in the water.

If anything is "abysmal" kiddo - it's your behavior and ignorance. That's why you're not going anywhere and that is why you lack "common sense."

Get some.

Listen kiddo, you will not learn anything acting like an ass. I would appreciate it if you would quit filling my forecast thread with your stupidity.

You do not learn that way and it makes you look and sound like a child. Is that what you are aiming for? Because if it is, then you have succeeded. Is that what you wanted to be when you grew up? An ass?

Stop playing on the board 'commonsense' and get a life. The only thing people are noticing is your preference for blowing lots of hot air.

Let's try again. A direct cut and paste from your first post on this thread:
"From my long-range astronomical calculations for North America, I've forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year. "
You also predicted that El Nino (or possibly its effects) would last through 2012 here:
"The shifts in storm tracks from El Nino (2010-2012)"

Obviously you were wrong. We've been having a very strong La Nina instead. Care to refute that?

NEXT:
"Further preventive plans will need to be made for additional damaging weather events related to the impacts of ENSO in the years 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016."
compared to, on Aug 24, 2011:
"We will not see another significant ENSO until after 2017 according to my long-range astronomic calculations."

Please resolve the obvious contradiction.

NEXT:
"This particular El Nino, from my analysis, appears to be a combination of the 1982-83 ENSO and the 1997-98 ENSO,"
and
"The effects of the coming El Nino will be nearly as substantial as the last one in 1997-98,"

Yet the last El Nino was mediocre, not anything like the 1998 El Nino. Again, failure of your forecast. Anybody disagree?

NEXT:
I decided to check on a randomly selected forecast for weather:
"March 2011 is a particularly brutal month of arctic temperatures, and winter storms across North America."

I checked the data here:
climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/state-map-display.pl
None of the US was much below normal, with only North and South Dakota and Wisconsin being below normal. Roughly half the country was normal, about half was above normal, and New Mexico was much above normal. Yet again, failure.

NEXT:
I noticed this little gem:
"This will be an historic solar maximum lasting to about the year 2015-16 - three years longer than expected by most scientists."
I checked the current status with NASA
solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
They currently predict a maximum of 70, which is 1/3 of an historic maximum. Since it still is in the future, we'll have to wait and see. I'm just alerting everyone to note your claim since you claim to have tremendous powers of forecasting the sun. Let's just say that your prediction is looking worse and worse every day. By the way, in order to make accurate forecasts, it seems obvious that one would have to know the future to much better than "about the year 2015-2016". Obviously, if it really is the sun that drives weather, then such a huge range of possible maximums would yield vastly different weather. Please explain.

Let me see if I can get this straight -

You're telling the forecaster who forecasted ENSO - that's both El Nino and La Nina - that he's a nutjob?

Then, you make it appear as if ENSO - that El Nino/La Nina Oscillation seem as if it really didn't happen at all since you just 'randomly selected forecast for weather."

Moreover, all the global data on the recent ENSO has not been tabulated, but you can see (that is if you actually know how to read the weather/climate events since mid-2009 to the present) that records were broken and we're still adding up the damage from ENSO.

But that doesn't stop another of our resident AGW kool-aid drinkers to make things up, all the while pretending that ENSO is no big deal, shuts on and off like a light-switch so you can 'randomly' spend about 5 minutes turning whatever you want into some case for a AGW myth that was never true to begin with.

Then you pine on about the Sun having little to no effect on Earth's climate and pretend that it simply isn't a factor while denying that it has been emerging out of its minimum since last year.

Not only has the Sun had several large CMEs; you pretend not to even notice since it is a 'quiet sun.' Anyway, in your view, the Sun having an effect on the Earth's climate is 'ridiculous.'

Then you tell me I'm wrong about a year - 2012 - that hasn't arrived yet.

Then you go on and apply your ignorance of ENSO to pretend as if it simply shuts off; and with all this you 'cut and paste' from my long-range forecasts in order to not only mock the forecaster of ENSO but pretend that you actually understand what it is that you are talking about?

That dog don't hunt.

Sounds like 'weather amnesia' to me. See -> wattsupwiththat.com/2011/09/03/weather-amnesia/

But you expect me to take you seriously?

Let me ask you a question: Are you smoking crack 'commonsense?'

[thermostat]

While the discussion on this thread continues to boggle my mind, I have yet to completely get it.

I gather that this thread is some sort of bastion for denialist attitudes. I get that much.

So?

[commonsense]

Let me see if I can get this straight -

You're telling the forecaster who forecasted ENSO - that's both El Nino and La Nina - that he's a nutjob?

Your forecast failed. You said that 2010-2011 would be a very strong El Nino year. You were off by a year or so and got the magnitude completely wrong.

Then, you make it appear as if ENSO - that El Nino/La Nina Oscillation seem as if it really didn't happen at all since you just 'randomly selected forecast for weather."


No, I selected a random weather-related prediction of yours and tested it. North American weather in March, 2011. Your forecast failed. That says nothing about any particular phase of ENSO. It just indicates that you can't forecast successfully.

Moreover, all the global data on the recent ENSO has not been tabulated, but you can see (that is if you actually know how to read the weather/climate events since mid-2009 to the present) that records were broken and we're still adding up the damage from ENSO.

Sorry, but the ENSO phases have been completely tabulated. Yep, records are broken every day - but that's irrelevant to the question as to whether you can forecast either an El Nino or a specific weather event.

But that doesn't stop another of our resident AGW kool-aid drinkers to make things up, all the while pretending that ENSO is no big deal, shuts on and off like a light-switch so you can 'randomly' spend about 5 minutes turning whatever you want into some case for a AGW myth that was never true to begin with.

I didn't make anything up. I took everything directly from your post. I note that you are now trying to deflect the discussion, which is whether you have any forecasting ability, into a diatribe about AGW. Sorry, AGW is not in the least relevant to this discussion.

Then you pine on about the Sun having little to no effect on Earth's climate and pretend that it simply isn't a factor while denying that it has been emerging out of its minimum since last year.

Now you're losing it! You're equating the fact that the sun has emerged from its minimum to SC24 becoming an historic maximum. That's laughable. All I said is that the experts predict a max of 70, which is 1/3 the size needed to become an historic maximum. Note that we're far enough along in SC24 to essentially exclude that possibility.

Not only has the Sun had several large CMEs; you pretend not to even notice since it is a 'quiet sun.' Anyway, in your view, the Sun having an effect on the Earth's climate is 'ridiculous.'


No, I believe that the sun has some effect, but just not a dominant one. The ice ages were not caused by changes in the sun, for example. I note that you are attempting to change your forecast, which was for an historic maximum into "It will be a quiet sun but there will be several large CMEs" Twist and turn....

Then you apply your ignorance of ENSO to pretend as if it simply shuts off and with all this you 'cut and paste' from my long-range forecasts in order to not only mock the forecaster of ENSO but pretend that you actually understand what it is that you are talking about?

Well, I never said or implied that. Re-read my post. Note the bit in parenthesis about the timing of the effects of El Nino as opposed to the El Nino event itself, which I did to give you a little leeway. Yes, the effects of El Nino last for many months after the event. As to complaining that I cut and paste from your forecast, that's the absolute best way to determine if your forecast has any validity.

That dog don't hunt.

But you expect me to take you seriously?


Heavens no. I'm only pointing out why others shouldn't take you seriously. If you want them to, then you'll have to actually respond to my points, which seem to show that your forecasts are no better than random guesses. Again, respond directly to my quotes of yours and how they turned out.

Let me ask you a question: Are you smoking crack 'commonsense?'

You just can't help yourself, can you?

[AstroMet]

Sept 4, 2011 5:47:49 GMT commonsense said:

Let me see if I can get this straight -

You're telling the forecaster who forecasted ENSO - that's both El Nino and La Nina - that he's a nutjob?

Your forecast failed. You said that 2010-2011 would be a very strong El Nino year. You were off by a year or so and got the magnitude completely wrong.

Then, you make it appear as if ENSO - that El Nino/La Nina Oscillation seem as if it really didn't happen at all since you just 'randomly selected forecast for weather."


No, I selected a random weather-related prediction of yours and tested it. North American weather in March, 2011. Your forecast failed. That says nothing about any particular phase of ENSO. It just indicates that you can't forecast successfully.

Moreover, all the global data on the recent ENSO has not been tabulated, but you can see (that is if you actually know how to read the weather/climate events since mid-2009 to the present) that records were broken and we're still adding up the damage from ENSO.

Sorry, but the ENSO phases have been completely tabulated. Yep, records are broken every day - but that's irrelevant to the question as to whether you can forecast either an El Nino or a specific weather event.

But that doesn't stop another of our resident AGW kool-aid drinkers to make things up, all the while pretending that ENSO is no big deal, shuts on and off like a light-switch so you can 'randomly' spend about 5 minutes turning whatever you want into some case for a AGW myth that was never true to begin with.

I didn't make anything up. I took everything directly from your post. I note that you are now trying to deflect the discussion, which is whether you have any forecasting ability, into a diatribe about AGW. Sorry, AGW is not in the least relevant to this discussion.

Then you pine on about the Sun having little to no effect on Earth's climate and pretend that it simply isn't a factor while denying that it has been emerging out of its minimum since last year.

Now you're losing it! You're equating the fact that the sun has emerged from its minimum to SC24 becoming an historic maximum. That's laughable. All I said is that the experts predict a max of 70, which is 1/3 the size needed to become an historic maximum. Note that we're far enough along in SC24 to essentially exclude that possibility.

Not only has the Sun had several large CMEs; you pretend not to even notice since it is a 'quiet sun.' Anyway, in your view, the Sun having an effect on the Earth's climate is 'ridiculous.'


No, I believe that the sun has some effect, but just not a dominant one. The ice ages were not caused by changes in the sun, for example. I note that you are attempting to change your forecast, which was for an historic maximum into "It will be a quiet sun but there will be several large CMEs" Twist and turn....

Then you apply your ignorance of ENSO to pretend as if it simply shuts off and with all this you 'cut and paste' from my long-range forecasts in order to not only mock the forecaster of ENSO but pretend that you actually understand what it is that you are talking about?

Well, I never said or implied that. Re-read my post. Note the bit in parenthesis about the timing of the effects of El Nino as opposed to the El Nino event itself, which I did to give you a little leeway. Yes, the effects of El Nino last for many months after the event. As to complaining that I cut and paste from your forecast, that's the absolute best way to determine if your forecast has any validity.

That dog don't hunt.

But you expect me to take you seriously?


Heavens no. I'm only pointing out why others shouldn't take you seriously. If you want them to, then you'll have to actually respond to my points, which seem to show that your forecasts are no better than random guesses. Again, respond directly to my quotes of yours and how they turned out.

Let me ask you a question: Are you smoking crack 'commonsense?'

You just can't help yourself, can you?

I can't help myself? Who do you think you are? And, if you do not take me 'seriously' then why are you constantly on this thread posting to me since I "fail" as you say?

So, you want to go point by point with me? No problem. Sit back and let me give you a lesson as to why AGW is relevant to this conversation and why you are dead wrong not only about my ENSO Forecast but also about the Sun and why it is the dominant factor for Earth's climate.

It's a long post, but since you pissed me off with your ignorance and blindness to the facts of what the world's weather has been like since my ENSO forecast for 2009-2011 - I decided to show you what the climate/weather was like in the real world - and not in your own fantasy land of a mind.

And - no, the damage from this most recent ENSO has NOT been fully tabulated pinhead. That's because it is still ongoing from the effects - especially the droughts you seem to totally ignore as if it is freaking non-existent.

Tell that to the populations who are presently suffering from the spreading drought - which is one of the hallmarks of ENSO - the other is Flood. There were massive floods and many deaths from heavy precipitation - including record snowpack in the American Mountain West.

I won't get into that since it will make this long post that much longer, but we've had record precipitation that has raised water tables and led to floods, especially throughout northern latitudes of the northern hemisphere.

Parts of the US east coast just received record precipitation for the month of August 2011 - that was just last month for your information.

So, sit back and let Astromet give you a lesson on the real world effects of ENSO that you just blow off as if it isn't even a factor worth mentioning.

I mean, if I am so "wrong" about everything and all that, then why isn't saying that I am a 'nutjob' and yada yada yada, wrong, wrong , wrong - then why do you return time and time again?

Isn't once, twice, or three times enough?

Why do you post anonymously?

Why is it that you have to hide the fact that you're on this board under several anonymous names?

Isn't one screen name enough or do you have to cloud who you are because you may be a coward?

I mean, since you're all that, why do you have to hide behind a silly screen name of 'commonsense' and trash threads with bullshit posts?

Seems to me that what you are doing is trying to mock while hiding behind AGW crap behind a thinly disguised veil of not wanting to learn, and not accepting the fact that you just are ignorant of astronomic forecasting and the Earth's climate.

You see that way - you can keep your AGW ideology while pretending to be intelligent while you cut and paste and then attempt to turn what I forecast as something that it is not.

Moreover, you make blanket statements, without qualifications, as if they were fact. You also obviously do not observe the actual weather and climate in the real world.

You see, your AGW ideology won't allow that.

The point is this - you've not a clue as to what you know, and frankly, I think you're just ignorant saying silly things like the Sun is not dominant to the Earth's climate when a child could tell you otherwise.

Commonsense, let me instruct you: Weather records are not broken every day. If that were the case, then there would be no records at all.

That is why I asked you: are you smoking crack?

Here's an example from you: No, I selected a random weather-related prediction of yours and tested it. North American weather in March, 2011. Your forecast failed. That says nothing about any particular phase of ENSO. It just indicates that you can't forecast successfully.

Tested it with what exactly? Your AGW ideology to try to make me look bad? Give me a break.

Let's take a look at what the real climate/weather was shall we?

See-> North American Winter 2011 -> abcnews.go.com/US/cold-snow-harsh-winter/story?id=13205971

See -> abcnews.go.com/US/winter-storm-east-coast-batters-record-breaking-snowstorm/story?id=12774029

See -> abcnews.go.com/US/slideshow/wicked-winter-weather-12775698

All of that was driven by ENSO - which you pretend just doesn't exist - like the Sun, you know, it's just a tiny little light bulb there in the sky, hardly a 'dominant' factor for Earth's climate.

Right, and you can suspend an elephant over the edge of a cliff with its tail tied to a small daisy. Let's just violate the laws of physics, yeah, that's the AGW ticket.

Guess what the real world of climate/weather did in North America which should speak volumes for your 'random' selection abilities?

Yet, in your view, all that climate and weather in North America just didn't happen - as I forecasted - because I'm not saying that it is because of man-made global warming, right?

I cannot stand you people. You're lazy and you do not have "common sense." You are not only wrong, but untalented, unskilled and should not be let anywhere near meteorology and climate science considering that your mind is polluted with that AGW ideology.

You are the enemy and I treat you people as such. I am not fooled. You all make me want to puke with your AGW bullshit you shove down people's throats. I bet some of you are paid to come onto climate boards to shove this AGW shit onto threads like mine - since I am a sworn enemy of you Al Gore/IPCC lovers.

All of you AGW drug pushers are as far away from "science" as Pluto is from the Sun.

I think you are intellectually dishonest and that's not cool at all.

You're like these 'AGW scientists' who remain in total denial mode when the real world of climate and weather doesn't jive with their 'warming forever' AGW bullshit ideology.

This is one example of Mother Nature and astronomic forecasting giving you AGW jerks the finger with real world weather -> www.lifeslittlemysteries.com/cold-spring-snow-global-warming-1499/

That's just one example of how far you AGW drug pushers will go to turn anything back into 'man-made global warming.' What a total load. You think everyone is stupid?

Well, I am not stupid. I can forecast your own weather sitting hundreds or thousands miles away - months and years in advance - while you cannot, sitting in your own neighborhood.

But, you don't want to go there, do you because I just might show you just how little you really know about your own weather over your own head. Open your eyes man.

Did you know, for instance that an ENSO can produce "El Nino-type weather in one region" while another sees what amounts to "La Nina-type climate conditions?" Bet you didn't know that.

Reason is that you will not accept the fact that you are a linear thinker and a AGW believer. You seem to think that anything you do not understand - such as astronomic forecasting - must be "wrong" just because you know nothing about it.

How about using your freaking free library card and reading books? How about learning to read an astronomic ephemeris? How about observing your own local climate and weather? How about shutting your big mouth and just learning from Mother Nature? She's a great teacher if you would only shut the f**k up about AGW, AGW, AGW and listen carefully.

How about taking a huge AGW dump in your bathroom and make sure you wipe thoroughly and wash your hands before you return to the real world of climate and weather?

But perhaps you need to understand what ENSO really means, rather than mouthing off as if you do know what drives the climate - and that's the SUN.

Just because you don't want to believe that doesn't mean shit.

Do you think that the Sun requires your "belief" for it to do its job?

You think way too much of yourself, that AGW ego of yours. The Sun does not give one hollering hoot about you pal.

And if the Sun decided to just go away - you would be gone too - on the SAME DAY. You would not have a chance in hell of survival - not one.

Believe it kiddo.

But, according to you, none of this ever happened and I'm a 'nutjob' for forecasting it in advance -> www.livescience.com/9272-weather-rarity-snow-49-states.html

You said, "Your forecast failed. You said that 2010-2011 would be a very strong El Nino year. You were off by a year or so and got the magnitude completely wrong."

ENSO 2010/2011: Astromet Teleconnections
Long-Range Climate Outlook & 2010 Forecast
Region: North America

The Sun Completes Global Warming Phase With Powerful ENSO

By Theodore White; astrometeorologist.S
Forecast Issued: December 2008
*Updated: December 23, 2009

Comments on El Nino -

My forecast for the coming El Nino to arrive in mid-2009 will soon be verified by the appearance of rising sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Astronomic indications confirm that the new celestial cycles, mainly those of the Sun, and the planets in April/May 2009, clearly reveal that a new ENSO was on the horizon."

You said that, "You were off by a year or so and got the magnitude completely wrong."

Can't you read? Off by a year? The title of my forecast was ->

ENSO 2010/2011: Astromet Teleconnections
Long-Range Climate Outlook & 2010 Forecast
Region: North America

What freaking year are you talking about? I said 2010/2011 ENSO, and, if you read my forecast rather than AGW nickel-and-diming it - you will see that I said El Nino to arrive in mid-2009 as well.

I wrote that back in 2006 by the way. I republished it several times, in 2007, in 2008 and again in 2009 because some of you AGW boneheads have such SHORT memories and forget easily - since you're playing X-box-like video AGW games with dead wrong climate models - but I will tell you what you're NOT doing - and that's forecasting for the real world. That's what.

Again, just another I don't-want-to-see-anything-happening-in-the-real-world-unless-it-is-AGW-ideology-related. El Nino extended from mid-2009 into 2010 kiddo.

Oh right, according to you that never happened: Yeah, that's the AGW warming forever ticket -> www.kpbs.org/news/2010/jan/20/its-official-el-nino-california/

But then again, that never happened, right? Neither did this from El Nino that Astromet forecasted in advance and said was a go into 2010 to be followed by La Nina, Oh that nutty astronomic forecaster who always fails just like you said -> www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/video/2011/2010-began-with-el-nino-ended-with-la-nina

Which year was that? 2010 was last year and this year is 2011. Oh, and this never happened either, just so Astromet could "fail" again, right? See -> www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/23/us-weather-idUSTRE72M6CG20110323

You said: "No, I selected a random weather-related prediction of yours and tested it. North American weather in March, 2011. Your forecast failed. That says nothing about any particular phase of ENSO. It just indicates that you can't forecast successfully."

Oh really?

But you said, "... It just indicates that you can't forecast successfully.

On Winter 2011, I forecasted, years in advance, on La Nina's coming climate/weather effects that, "There is a very strong potential of heavier than normal snowfalls along the eastern seaboard of the United States at that time especially affecting the Southeastern, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeastern states with drought spreading from southern Texas along to the Gulf states and into parts of the central Midwest."

See -> www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-28/dust-bowl-in-texas-means-cotton-bottoming-with-rick-perry-praying-for-rain.html

See -> www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2091192,00.html

Yeah, I can't forecast worth nothing according to you - "Drought is also one my biggest concerns from this particular ENSO. Because of certain astronomic indications, some of the world's regions other than the southern to Midwestern United States will see spread of droughts and dust storms that may last into the year 2015 at varying intensities along the way - leading to starvation from the year-after-year lack of rains, particularly in parts of eastern and central Africa, all of India, northern & southern China, Indonesia, northern and central Australia, the Philippines, and Japan."

See -> www.voanews.com/policy/editorials/Somalia-Famine-Expected-To-Worsen-129135528.html

See -> www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/drought-and-floods-whats-coming-next-20110118-19ust.html

See -> www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-08/30/content_13220922.htm

See -> www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/UN-to-Announce-Somalia-Famine-Spreading-to-New-Region-129099493.html

See -> www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9PFPKP80.htm

See -> www.dasnr.okstate.edu/Members/donald.stotts-40okstate.edu/increasingly-severe-drought-ratings-result-in-spread-of-cattle-industry-concerns

See -> www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15344015,00.html

See -> www.eldoradocountyweather.com/climate/world-maps/world-drought-risk.html

"The El Nino/La Nina cycle, more formally known as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular cycle of sea surface temperature, atmospheric pressure, and wind direction in the tropical Pacific Ocean which has a profound affect on global weather. Both floods and droughts are associated with phases of ENSO.

El Nino (warm phase)

In South America, this warm phase suppresses the normally cold upwelling currents that bring fish to the coasts of Peru and Ecuador. This phase brings unusually warm and wet weather during the South American winter.

In North America, El Nino brings warm, dry winters and wet summers to the northern region, and much wetter winters to the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.

Australia can experience droughts.

La Nina (cool phase)

In South America, La Nina brings drought to Peru and Chile but more rain to northern Brazil. In North America, La Nina brings above average precipitation to the north (hence our heavy snowfall during the winter of 2010-2011) and average to much below average precipitation to the southern U.S.

The influence of La Nina reaches Africa and produces more precipitation in south Africa and dryer conditions in equatorial Africa.

Climate Models Fail

Climate models, which are based on the assumption that carbon dioxide has a positive feedback, i.e., that carbon dioxide causes significant warming, make predictions on the behavior of ENSO. An analysis of those predictions versus what actually happened shows that the climate models predicted almost the exact opposite of what really happened.

Wolter, K. and Timlin, M.S. 2011. El Niño/Southern Oscillation behavior since 1871 as diagnosed in an extended multivariate ENSO index (MEI.ext). International Journal of Climatology 31: 1074-1087.

The researchers were able to extend analysis of ENSO events back to 1871 and found: “none of the behavior of recent ENSO events appears unprecedented, including duration, onset timing, and spacing in the last few decades compared to a full century before then.” Climate models predict that ENSO events should become more frequent and intense with global warming.

In other words, the climate model assumption of a positive feedback for carbon dioxide is wrong. And once again there is evidence that our carbon dioxide emissions have little actual effect on global temperature, and, there is still no physical evidence that carbon dioxide does have a significant effect. We, therefore, should not be basing policy decisions on flawed model scenarios.

ENSO is just one of several recognized oscillations driven by the Sun and the earth’s position relative to the Sun."

Yep, that stupid Astromet, he also forecasted that Spring 2011 would be late and the rough winter would extend into March & April 2011, so this did not happen in March 2011, according to your 'random' selection -> www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/forecast-spring-retreats-cold-and-damp-win-out-snow/2011/03/11/ABQOb1LB_blog.html

Yeah, Astromet 'completely failed' with his long-range cold, wet spring 2011 forecast for North America, that silly astrologer forecaster -> www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2011/03/01/17455036.html

Oops, but let's not look at the dates, that way, you can just say that it didn't happen and I was years off, or that it was 'random' and never happened, yeah, that's the ticket. Anything to make this guy look like a loony who "fails all the time." Yeah, that'll do it, boy am I a smart critic, no one will notice and Astromet will be a failure always.

Yeah, that nutty Astromet, forecasting that the Sun will wake up and all, that crazy forecaster -> www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2000596/Solar-flare-Sunspot-cycle-threatens-disrupt-Earth-communications-power.html

Sure, the Sun is nothing, it hasn't much activity at all, it's still asleep and not "dominant" at all, sure, that's the ticket, oh that nutjob Astromet, he can't forecast worth shit and all his forecasts "fail" -> www.resistance2010.com/forum/topics/the-sun-wakes-up-supernova?commentId=3228704%3AComment%3A185097

You said, "Not only has the Sun had several large CMEs; you pretend not to even notice since it is a 'quiet sun.' Anyway, in your view, the Sun having an effect on the Earth's climate is 'ridiculous.

Wait a minute. How the f**k can the Sun be a 'quiet sun" and yet have massive CMEs? What the hell is so 'quiet' about that? Oh, and disruptions of Earth's electrical power grids and satellite communications, as well as the powerful magnetic solar winds from the Sun's CMEs that set off earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, well, that is just plain 'ridiculous' - according to you because the Sun is quiet?

Tell me: do you regularly check to see if all 52 cards are in your deck because surely you are NOT playing with a full one pal.

But okay, I'll play your game for a second: I'm wrong all the time 'Commonsense.' The Sun has nothing to do with the Earth's climate, is not a 'dominant' and I never forecasted ENSO, I never forecasted a cold spring. North America never had a cold winter and a cold wet spring as I forecasted. El Nino never went into 2010. Nope, just failed about it all (in advance of course) because I have nothing better to do with my time.

Oh, that silly Astromet.

You see, Astromet's forecasts have "no validity," and "his forecasts always fails." Yeah, "he's losing it," just like you said.

By and by, you have a lot of 'common sense.' Wow, you're the shit, you really know a lot about the Earth's climate and the Sun common sense.

We're sure to learn a lot about long-range forecasting from you. But that stupid Astromet, what a funny guy, always failing with his forecasts. What a 'nutjob' he is, glad you pointed that all out about him failing.

Wow, you really know your forecasting common sense. You really know a lot about the real world of weather and climate. Bet you're going to tell us when the next ENSO will arrive and when the Sun will wake up.

I'm waiting with baited breath to hear all the AGW ideological details from you. Can't wait. Wow, you're a great guy and a super forecaster. Thanks for all you do common sense. I've learned a lot from you.

Feel better?

Can I go now?

[commonsense]

Then if you do not take me 'seriously' then why are you constantly on this thread posting to me?

I mean, if I am so 'wrong' about everything and all that, then why isn't saying that I am a 'nutjob' and yada yada yada, wrong, wrong , wrong - then why do you return time and time again?

I'm just supporting the science by exposing you. Please note that you're the one who used the term nutjob. Seems you can't even remember that, and now claim, erroneously, that I called you a nutjob. I did no such thing.

Isn't once, twice, or three times enough? Why do you post anonymously? Why is it that you have to hide the fact that you're on this board under several anonymous names?

I mean, since you're all that, why do you have to hide behind a silly screen name of 'commonsense' and trash threads with bullshit posts?


Just following the thread and digging for the truth. You keep evading and dodging. Why do I post anonymously? Because this is a board and that's my choice. Am I "all that"? Nope. I'm not the one claiming extraordinary powers, you are. I freely state that I can forecast only about as well as you, except in the case of climate forecasting - I correctly forecast that the climate will continue to warm while you erroneously forecast that the climate will cool. The point is that your claims are extraordinary and merit looking into. So far you've not shown yourself to have exceptional ability. It is not bullshit to examine your claim of extraordinary powers; it is essential to the integrity of this thread.

Seems to me that what you are doing is trying to mock while hiding behind AGW crap behind a thinly disguised veil of not wanting to learn, and not accepting the fact that you just are ignorant of astronomic forecasting and the Earth's climate.

You see that way - you can keep your AGW ideology while pretending to be intelligent while you cut and paste and then attempt to turn what I wrote as something that it is not.

I'm not hiding behind AGW crap. I'm merely looking at your previous forecasts and seeing if they came true. I'm not attempting to turn what you wrote into anything at all. Your forecasts are tangled and often contradictory. I simply examine them honestly.

Moreover, you make blanket statements, without qualifications, as if they were fact. You also obviously do not observe the actual weather and climate in the real world.

You see, your AGW ideology won't allow that.

The point is this - you've not a clue as to what you know, and frankly, I think you're just ignorant saying silly things like the Sun is not dominant to the Earth's climate when a child could tell you otherwise.


Most folks wouldn't accept a child's word on the subject. I mentioned the ice ages. Let's expand that to all prehistoric eras. The sun brightens slowly over time, yet temperatures on Earth have been much warmer in the past than they are today. Obviously, it cannot be the sun that is the exclusive (or even primary) driver of climate, because if it were, past epochs would have been cooler than today.

Also, weather records are not broken every day. If that were the case, then there would be no records at all. This is why I ask, "Commonsense," - if you are smoking crack?


You are claiming that if records of some kind are broken somewhere on the planet every day then there would be no records at all? Now, my statement was obvious hyberbole, though essentially true, but your conclusion, that such a condition means that there can be no records at all, is crap.

An example from you: No, I selected a random weather-related prediction of yours and tested it. North American weather in March, 2011. Your forecast failed. That says nothing about any particular phase of ENSO. It just indicates that you can't forecast successfully.

See-> North American Winter 2011 -> abcnews.go.com/US/cold-snow-harsh-winter/story?id=13205971

See -> abcnews.go.com/US/winter-storm-east-coast-batters-record-breaking-snowstorm/story?id=12774029

See -> abcnews.go.com/US/slideshow/wicked-winter-weather-12775698


I glanced at your links. Your forecast was that March 2011 would be severely cold. None of your links supported that forecast. March 2011 was not a cold month in North America. If you wish to support your forecast, you'll have to show some evidence that March 2011 was cold. Please try to stay on track!

All of that was driven by ENSO - which you pretend just doesn't exist - like the Sun, you know, it's just a light bulb there in the sky, hardly a 'dominant' factor.

Now you're just lying. My posts have consistently acknowledged ENSO and that the sun has some effect on weather and climate.

Guess the real world of weather that happened in North America speaks volumes for your 'random' selection ability and my forecast ability, doesn't it?


Yes. The real world of weather showed that March 2011 was warmer than normal in the USA (admittedly a subset of North America), as I showed with my link to NOAA. Your forecast failed in this instance. That you try to claim otherwise is just lame. As to my ability to randomly select one of your weather forecasts, well, you could claim that I cheated and actually looked up twenty of your weather forecasts and selected the only one which failed, but then we'd have to resort to picking apart your entire list of forecasts and checking each one. Perhaps that's not a bad idea. Please cut and paste your entire forecast and show how each prediction succeeded or failed. You claim what? a 90% success rate? Prove it.

But, in your view, all that weather in North America just didn't happen in spring - as I forecasted - because you want to make a point of simply shitting on me?

I think you are intellectually dishonest and that's not cool at all.

Of course weather happens. It just didn't happen like you forecast. What is intellectually dishonest is your attempt to cover up the fact that March 2011 was warmer than average by posting about a storm in the Northeast. Note that you forecast for heavy snows in the Southeast in March 2011: "there appears to be more snow for the Eastern and Southeastern U.S. with the heaviest snows falling in the month of March 2011" They didn't happen:

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/snow/2011/3
"March typically marks the end of the snow season for much of the Southern Plains and the Southeast, and March 2011 was not an exception, with little to no snow falling across those regions due to the arrival of spring-like temperatures."

You're like the 'AGW scientists' who remain in total denial mode when the real world of climate and weather doesn't jive with their 'warming forever' AGW bullshit ideology.

This is one example of Mother Nature and astronomic forecasting giving you AGW jerks the finger with real world weather -> www.lifeslittlemysteries.com/cold-spring-snow-global-warming-1499/

But, according to you, none of this ever happened and I'm a 'nutjob' for forecasting it in advance -> www.livescience.com/9272-weather-rarity-snow-49-states.html

Your link states that the jet stream pushed north in the west and dropped south in the east. The northwest got warmer and the northeast got cooler. That happens a lot, but the take-home message is that the country as a whole was warmer than average. Had you limited your forecast to the northeast instead of the entire continent, then you could claim a "hit" (though it would be a weak one since the Northeast was not colder for March as a whole). Since you didn't, you can't.

You said, "Your forecast failed. You said that 2010-2011 would be a very strong El Nino year. You were off by a year or so and got the magnitude completely wrong."

Again, another lie from you. El Nino extended from mid-2009 into 2010 kiddo. Oh, no, that never happened according to you, right. Yeah, that's the ticket -> www.kpbs.org/news/2010/jan/20/its-official-el-nino-california/

But then again, that never happened, right? Neither did this from El Nino that Astromet forecasted in advance and said was a go into 2010 to be followed by La Nina, Oh that nutty astronomic forecaster who always fails just like you said -> www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/video/2011/2010-began-with-el-nino-ended-with-la-nina

Which year was that? 2010 was last year and this year is 2011. Oh, and this never happened either, just so Astromet could "fail" again, right? See -> www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/23/us-weather-idUSTRE72M6CG20110323


Now you're trying to change your forecast after the fact. You forecast that El Nino would last through 2011, not 2010. Deeper in your forecast you got more specific date-wise, saying, "Although I have forecasted the return of El Nino in 2009, into 2010, and 2011, I am also forecasting a La Nina event to follow in the Northern Hemispheric Winter of 2011 to take place in the months of February, March, and April of that year.", so your forecast was for El Nino to last through January 2011 and would be "very strong". Well, El Nino ended early in 2010 and was mediocre. Your prediction was made Jan 1, 2010, so predicting that El Nino would start in 2009 is not a forecast but a statement of past facts, and your forecast for El Nino's end date proved false a few months after your forecast. Your forecast for a little three month blip of a La Nina also proved false, as we had a nice deep La Nina.

The rest of your post just goes off the deep end, using your own voice to spout insults about yourself and pretend that I'm saying it.

[AstroMet]

Sept 4, 2011 12:41:10 GMT commonsense said:

Now you're trying to change your forecast after the fact. You forecast that El Nino would last through 2011, not 2010. Deeper in your forecast you got more specific date-wise, saying, "Although I have forecasted the return of El Nino in 2009, into 2010, and 2011, I am also forecasting a La Nina event to follow in the Northern Hemispheric Winter of 2011 to take place in the months of February, March, and April of that year.", so your forecast was for El Nino to last through January 2011 and would be "very strong". Well, El Nino ended early in 2010 and was mediocre. Your prediction was made Jan 1, 2010, so predicting that El Nino would start in 2009 is not a forecast but a statement of past facts, and your forecast for El Nino's end date proved false a few months after your forecast. Your forecast for a little three month blip of a La Nina also proved false, as we had a nice deep La Nina.

The rest of your post just goes off the deep end, using your own voice to spout insults about yourself and pretend that I'm saying it.

Bullshit. My "prediction" for ENSO - that's El Nino and La Nina - was produced in 2006. I re-published it in 2007, 2008, and again in 2009. I reposted it here in 2009 and reposted it again on Jan. 1, 2010. Do you need eyeglasses because it's obvious you cannot read but prefer to "read" whatever you want to fit your silly ideology. Total bullshit.

My forecast for La Nina was not a 'little blimp" since you don't like to read what is actually written. I called La Nina before it was even on any radar - long before - and by astronomic means called it an "odd" anomaly before anyone was even talking about La Nina.

But, according to you, I don't get credit for that either. So f**k you. I burned my ass to make that ENSO forecast with long sleepless nights pouring over calculations and you were not there to help me one bit. So I disagree jerk-off. You have no idea the blood and sweat that goes into producing long-range climate forecasts.

Here's a hint - it ain't easy.

While you were most likely watching TV, sleeping, or playing with yourself, I was working 12-hour days and nights for months on end in 2006 just to make a long-range climate forecast to give people a heads up - for free. So up yours.

If you can do better - be my guest, but don't come off being critical of my work like you know what you are talking about because you don't.

This is not going to be turned into a pissing contest kiddo. You deserve every insult you had coming to you since you called me a 'nutjob' so don't even go there.

I quoted you, from your own comments, but you attempted to turn my ENSO forecast into a laughing matter and I slapped you back.

So take it - like a man and come correct. Forget your ego. Last year was 2010 and this year is 2011 - so how the f**k can I be a year off from ENSO when I forecasted the blasted thing years in advance?

You can read my ENSO Forecast as published. I have not changed a thing. I left it as it was when I wrote it - it's all there - warts and all. Who cares if you don't want to believe that it can be done. Who the hell are you?

I never claimed to be 'perfect' because I am not. I am professional astronomic forecaster and have a better than 85% rating - which is much better than you will find out there.

The only other forecaster who matches that is Piers Corbyn in the U.K. and I'm sure you've most likely said crappy things about him too, although Piers could outforcast you blindfolded as I can - months and years in advance.

Stop being a baby 'common sense' and swallow your AGW pride. If you can do better - then let's see it.

Talk is cheap - let's see you walk the walk since you want to piss on the heads of professional forecasters because you are unable to do what we can do.

Don't throw stones at glass houses and do not look a gift horse in the mouth kiddo.

As for the rest - re-read my entire post - especially on the REAL WEATHER caused by ENSO and get off the AGW rag.

Go over the real world of weather brought on by the Sun, which causes ENSO as the Earth's climate/weather is forced from outer space. The world is not flat - it is round. You should know better.

Give the Sun the f**king respect it deserves or you might regret it someday when it decides to show you who is boss on Earth -> apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap060807.html

I can't help myself? Who do you think you are? And, if you do not take me 'seriously' then why are you constantly on this thread posting to me since I "fail" as you say?

So, you want to go point by point with me? No problem. Sit back and let me give you a lesson as to why AGW is relevant to this conversation and why you are dead wrong not only about my ENSO Forecast but also about the Sun and why it is the dominant factor for Earth's climate.

It's a long post, but since you pissed me off with your ignorance and blindness to the facts of what the world's weather has been like since my ENSO forecast for 2009-2011 - I decided to show you what the climate/weather was like in the real world - and not in your own fantasy land of a mind.

And - no, the damage from this most recent ENSO has NOT been fully tabulated pinhead. That's because it is still ongoing from the effects - especially the droughts you seem to totally ignore as if it is freaking non-existent.

Tell that to the populations who are presently suffering from the spreading drought - which is one of the hallmarks of ENSO - the other is Flood. There were massive floods and many deaths from heavy precipitation - including record snowpack in the American Mountain West.

I won't get into that since it will make this long post that much longer, but we've had record precipitation that has raised water tables and led to floods, especially throughout northern latitudes of the northern hemisphere.

Parts of the US east coast just received record precipitation for the month of August 2011 - that was just last month for your information.

So, sit back and let Astromet give you a lesson on the real world effects of ENSO that you just blow off as if it isn't even a factor worth mentioning.

I mean, if I am so "wrong" about everything and all that, then why isn't saying that I am a 'nutjob' and yada yada yada, wrong, wrong , wrong - then why do you return time and time again?

Isn't once, twice, or three times enough?

Why do you post anonymously?

Why is it that you have to hide the fact that you're on this board under several anonymous names?

Isn't one screen name enough or do you have to cloud who you are because you may be a coward?

I mean, since you're all that, why do you have to hide behind a silly screen name of 'commonsense' and trash threads with bullshit posts?

Seems to me that what you are doing is trying to mock while hiding behind AGW crap behind a thinly disguised veil of not wanting to learn, and not accepting the fact that you just are ignorant of astronomic forecasting and the Earth's climate.

You see that way - you can keep your AGW ideology while pretending to be intelligent while you cut and paste and then attempt to turn what I forecast as something that it is not.

Moreover, you make blanket statements, without qualifications, as if they were fact. You also obviously do not observe the actual weather and climate in the real world.

You see, your AGW ideology won't allow that.

The point is this - you've not a clue as to what you know, and frankly, I think you're just ignorant saying silly things like the Sun is not dominant to the Earth's climate when a child could tell you otherwise.

Commonsense, let me instruct you: Weather records are not broken every day. If that were the case, then there would be no records at all.

That is why I asked you: are you smoking crack?

Here's an example from you: No, I selected a random weather-related prediction of yours and tested it. North American weather in March, 2011. Your forecast failed. That says nothing about any particular phase of ENSO. It just indicates that you can't forecast successfully.

Tested it with what exactly? Your AGW ideology to try to make me look bad? Give me a break.

Let's take a look at what the real climate/weather was shall we?

See-> North American Winter 2011 -> abcnews.go.com/US/cold-snow-harsh-winter/story?id=13205971

See -> abcnews.go.com/US/winter-storm-east-coast-batters-record-breaking-snowstorm/story?id=12774029

See -> abcnews.go.com/US/slideshow/wicked-winter-weather-12775698

All of that was driven by ENSO - which you pretend just doesn't exist - like the Sun, you know, it's just a tiny little light bulb there in the sky, hardly a 'dominant' factor for Earth's climate.

Right, and you can suspend an elephant over the edge of a cliff with its tail tied to a small daisy. Let's just violate the laws of physics, yeah, that's the AGW ticket.

Guess what the real world of climate/weather did in North America which should speak volumes for your 'random' selection abilities?

Yet, in your view, all that climate and weather in North America just didn't happen - as I forecasted - because I'm not saying that it is because of man-made global warming, right?

I cannot stand you people. You're lazy and you do not have "common sense." You are not only wrong, but untalented, unskilled and should not be let anywhere near meteorology and climate science considering that your mind is polluted with that AGW ideology.

You are the enemy and I treat you people as such. I am not fooled. You all make me want to puke with your AGW bullshit you shove down people's throats. I bet some of you are paid to come onto climate boards to shove this AGW shit onto threads like mine - since I am a sworn enemy of you Al Gore/IPCC lovers.

All of you AGW drug pushers are as far away from "science" as Pluto is from the Sun.

I think you are intellectually dishonest and that's not cool at all.

You're like these 'AGW scientists' who remain in total denial mode when the real world of climate and weather doesn't jive with their 'warming forever' AGW bullshit ideology.

This is one example of Mother Nature and astronomic forecasting giving you AGW jerks the finger with real world weather -> www.lifeslittlemysteries.com/cold-spring-snow-global-warming-1499/

That's just one example of how far you AGW drug pushers will go to turn anything back into 'man-made global warming.' What a total load. You think everyone is stupid?

Well, I am not stupid. I can forecast your own weather sitting hundreds or thousands miles away - months and years in advance - while you cannot, sitting in your own neighborhood.

But, you don't want to go there, do you because I just might show you just how little you really know about your own weather over your own head. Open your eyes man.

Did you know, for instance that an ENSO can produce "El Nino-type weather in one region" while another sees what amounts to "La Nina-type climate conditions?" Bet you didn't know that.

Reason is that you will not accept the fact that you are a linear thinker and a AGW believer. You seem to think that anything you do not understand - such as astronomic forecasting - must be "wrong" just because you know nothing about it.

How about using your freaking free library card and reading books? How about learning to read an astronomic ephemeris? How about observing your own local climate and weather? How about shutting your big mouth and just learning from Mother Nature? She's a great teacher if you would only shut the f**k up about AGW, AGW, AGW and listen carefully.

How about taking a huge AGW dump in your bathroom and make sure you wipe thoroughly and wash your hands before you return to the real world of climate and weather?

But perhaps you need to understand what ENSO really means, rather than mouthing off as if you do know what drives the climate - and that's the SUN.

Just because you don't want to believe that doesn't mean shit.

Do you think that the Sun requires your "belief" for it to do its job?

You think way too much of yourself, that AGW ego of yours. The Sun does not give one hollering hoot about you pal.

And if the Sun decided to just go away - you would be gone too - on the SAME DAY. You would not have a chance in hell of survival - not one.

Believe it kiddo.

But, according to you, none of this ever happened and I'm a 'nutjob' for forecasting it in advance -> www.livescience.com/9272-weather-rarity-snow-49-states.html

You said, "Your forecast failed. You said that 2010-2011 would be a very strong El Nino year. You were off by a year or so and got the magnitude completely wrong."

ENSO 2010/2011: Astromet Teleconnections
Long-Range Climate Outlook & 2010 Forecast
Region: North America

The Sun Completes Global Warming Phase With Powerful ENSO

By Theodore White; astrometeorologist.S
Forecast Issued: December 2008
*Updated: December 23, 2009

Comments on El Nino -

My forecast for the coming El Nino to arrive in mid-2009 will soon be verified by the appearance of rising sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Astronomic indications confirm that the new celestial cycles, mainly those of the Sun, and the planets in April/May 2009, clearly reveal that a new ENSO was on the horizon."

You said that, "You were off by a year or so and got the magnitude completely wrong."

Can't you read? Off by a year? The title of my forecast was ->

ENSO 2010/2011: Astromet Teleconnections
Long-Range Climate Outlook & 2010 Forecast
Region: North America

What freaking year are you talking about? I said 2010/2011 ENSO, and, if you read my forecast rather than AGW nickel-and-diming it - you will see that I said El Nino to arrive in mid-2009 as well.

I wrote that back in 2006 by the way. I republished it several times, in 2007, in 2008 and again in 2009 because some of you AGW boneheads have such SHORT memories and forget easily - since you're playing X-box-like video AGW games with dead wrong climate models - but I will tell you what you're NOT doing - and that's forecasting for the real world. That's what.

Again, just another I don't-want-to-see-anything-happening-in-the-real-world-unless-it-is-AGW-ideology-related. El Nino extended from mid-2009 into 2010 kiddo.

Oh right, according to you that never happened: Yeah, that's the AGW warming forever ticket -> www.kpbs.org/news/2010/jan/20/its-official-el-nino-california/

But then again, that never happened, right? Neither did this from El Nino that Astromet forecasted in advance and said was a go into 2010 to be followed by La Nina, Oh that nutty astronomic forecaster who always fails just like you said -> www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/video/2011/2010-began-with-el-nino-ended-with-la-nina

Which year was that? 2010 was last year and this year is 2011. Oh, and this never happened either, just so Astromet could "fail" again, right? See -> www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/23/us-weather-idUSTRE72M6CG20110323

You said: "No, I selected a random weather-related prediction of yours and tested it. North American weather in March, 2011. Your forecast failed. That says nothing about any particular phase of ENSO. It just indicates that you can't forecast successfully."

Oh really?

But you said, "... It just indicates that you can't forecast successfully.

On Winter 2011, I forecasted, years in advance, on La Nina's coming climate/weather effects that, "There is a very strong potential of heavier than normal snowfalls along the eastern seaboard of the United States at that time especially affecting the Southeastern, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeastern states with drought spreading from southern Texas along to the Gulf states and into parts of the central Midwest."

See -> www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-28/dust-bowl-in-texas-means-cotton-bottoming-with-rick-perry-praying-for-rain.html

See -> www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2091192,00.html

Yeah, I can't forecast worth nothing according to you - "Drought is also one my biggest concerns from this particular ENSO. Because of certain astronomic indications, some of the world's regions other than the southern to Midwestern United States will see spread of droughts and dust storms that may last into the year 2015 at varying intensities along the way - leading to starvation from the year-after-year lack of rains, particularly in parts of eastern and central Africa, all of India, northern & southern China, Indonesia, northern and central Australia, the Philippines, and Japan."

See -> www.voanews.com/policy/editorials/Somalia-Famine-Expected-To-Worsen-129135528.html

See -> www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/drought-and-floods-whats-coming-next-20110118-19ust.html

See -> www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-08/30/content_13220922.htm

See -> www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/UN-to-Announce-Somalia-Famine-Spreading-to-New-Region-129099493.html

See -> www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9PFPKP80.htm

See -> www.dasnr.okstate.edu/Members/donald.stotts-40okstate.edu/increasingly-severe-drought-ratings-result-in-spread-of-cattle-industry-concerns

See -> www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15344015,00.html

See -> www.eldoradocountyweather.com/climate/world-maps/world-drought-risk.html

"The El Nino/La Nina cycle, more formally known as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular cycle of sea surface temperature, atmospheric pressure, and wind direction in the tropical Pacific Ocean which has a profound affect on global weather. Both floods and droughts are associated with phases of ENSO.

El Nino (warm phase)

In South America, this warm phase suppresses the normally cold upwelling currents that bring fish to the coasts of Peru and Ecuador. This phase brings unusually warm and wet weather during the South American winter.

In North America, El Nino brings warm, dry winters and wet summers to the northern region, and much wetter winters to the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico.

Australia can experience droughts.

La Nina (cool phase)

In South America, La Nina brings drought to Peru and Chile but more rain to northern Brazil. In North America, La Nina brings above average precipitation to the north (hence our heavy snowfall during the winter of 2010-2011) and average to much below average precipitation to the southern U.S.

The influence of La Nina reaches Africa and produces more precipitation in south Africa and dryer conditions in equatorial Africa.

Climate Models Fail

Climate models, which are based on the assumption that carbon dioxide has a positive feedback, i.e., that carbon dioxide causes significant warming, make predictions on the behavior of ENSO. An analysis of those predictions versus what actually happened shows that the climate models predicted almost the exact opposite of what really happened.

Wolter, K. and Timlin, M.S. 2011. El Niño/Southern Oscillation behavior since 1871 as diagnosed in an extended multivariate ENSO index (MEI.ext). International Journal of Climatology 31: 1074-1087.

The researchers were able to extend analysis of ENSO events back to 1871 and found: “none of the behavior of recent ENSO events appears unprecedented, including duration, onset timing, and spacing in the last few decades compared to a full century before then.” Climate models predict that ENSO events should become more frequent and intense with global warming.

In other words, the climate model assumption of a positive feedback for carbon dioxide is wrong. And once again there is evidence that our carbon dioxide emissions have little actual effect on global temperature, and, there is still no physical evidence that carbon dioxide does have a significant effect. We, therefore, should not be basing policy decisions on flawed model scenarios.

ENSO is just one of several recognized oscillations driven by the Sun and the earth’s position relative to the Sun."

Yep, that stupid Astromet, he also forecasted that Spring 2011 would be late and the rough winter would extend into March & April 2011, so this did not happen in March 2011, according to your 'random' selection -> www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/forecast-spring-retreats-cold-and-damp-win-out-snow/2011/03/11/ABQOb1LB_blog.html

Yeah, Astromet 'completely failed' with his long-range cold, wet spring 2011 forecast for North America, that silly astrologer forecaster -> www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2011/03/01/17455036.html

Oops, but let's not look at the dates, that way, you can just say that it didn't happen and I was years off, or that it was 'random' and never happened, yeah, that's the ticket. Anything to make this guy look like a loony who "fails all the time." Yeah, that'll do it, boy am I a smart critic, no one will notice and Astromet will be a failure always.

Yeah, that nutty Astromet, forecasting that the Sun will wake up and all, that crazy forecaster -> www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2000596/Solar-flare-Sunspot-cycle-threatens-disrupt-Earth-communications-power.html

Sure, the Sun is nothing, it hasn't much activity at all, it's still asleep and not "dominant" at all, sure, that's the ticket, oh that nutjob Astromet, he can't forecast worth shit and all his forecasts "fail" -> www.resistance2010.com/forum/topics/the-sun-wakes-up-supernova?commentId=3228704%3AComment%3A185097

You said, "Not only has the Sun had several large CMEs; you pretend not to even notice since it is a 'quiet sun.' Anyway, in your view, the Sun having an effect on the Earth's climate is 'ridiculous.

Wait a minute. How the f**k can the Sun be a 'quiet sun" and yet have massive CMEs? What the hell is so 'quiet' about that? Oh, and disruptions of Earth's electrical power grids and satellite communications, as well as the powerful magnetic solar winds from the Sun's CMEs that set off earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, well, that is just plain 'ridiculous' - according to you because the Sun is quiet?

Tell me: do you regularly check to see if all 52 cards are in your deck because surely you are NOT playing with a full one pal.

Take a look at the star we call our Sun and stop insulting the intelligence of people who know better -> apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap060807.html

But okay, I'll play your game for a second: I'm wrong all the time 'Commonsense.' The Sun has nothing to do with the Earth's climate, is not a 'dominant' and I never forecasted ENSO, I never forecasted a cold spring. North America never had a cold winter and a cold wet spring as I forecasted. El Nino never went into 2010. Nope, just failed about it all (in advance of course) because I have nothing better to do with my time.

Oh, that silly Astromet.

You see, Astromet's forecasts have "no validity," and "his forecasts always fails." Yeah, "he's losing it," just like you said.

By and by, you have a lot of 'common sense.' Wow, you're the shit, you really know a lot about the Earth's climate and the Sun common sense.

We're sure to learn a lot about long-range forecasting from you. But that stupid Astromet, what a funny guy, always failing with his forecasts. What a 'nutjob' he is, glad you pointed that all out about him failing.

Wow, you really know your forecasting common sense. You really know a lot about the real world of weather and climate. Bet you're going to tell us when the next ENSO will arrive and when the Sun will wake up.

I'm waiting with baited breath to hear all the AGW ideological details from you. Can't wait. Wow, you're a great guy and a super forecaster. Thanks for all you do common sense. I've learned a lot from you.

Feel better?

Can I go now?

[commonsense]

I cut and paste your forecasts, generally keeping to the big ones, like ENSO, and you try to change them anyway. For example, I cut and paste where you said that El Nino would last through 2011 and be very strong, and that a three-month La Nina would follow. That turned out to be a failed forecast. That's a huge failure, as being wrong about something so system-wide throws doubt on your other predictions. I looked at your claims for March 2011, and most of what you forecast, such as heavy snows in the Southeast, turned out to be wrong. Making long, rambling posts doesn't cover up these basic errors.

The law of averages says that when you make hundreds of forecasts, some will turn out. You haven't shown a forecasting skill above random chance. As I suggested before, we could go through your Jan 1, 2010 forecast line by line and come up with a score. Of course, we'd have to vote on it, as your claims of victory when confronted with indisputable proof that you failed would tend to be a problem. I propose we get volunteers from this thread to vote, and we take sections of your Jan 1,2010 forecast, say 10 or 20 predictions at a time, and find out if you can actually forecast.

Another, probably more telling error of yours is your repeated claim that I called you a nutjob. I'm calling you on it. Point to where I did such a thing. No, pretty much you insult yourself (and others) all by yourself.

[commonsense]

Looks like we cross-posted. Your posts are getting more interesting. March 2011 keeps coming up in your Jan 1 post. What happened astrometeorology-wise then?

[mien]

Insulting each other will never lead to a conclusion in an internet debate, as one is unable to agree with someone who just disrepected them, no matter how good your research and arguments may be.

It's always better just to respond with no emotions involved and simply adressing the concerns made

[AstroMet]

Sept 4, 2011 21:19:40 GMT commonsense said:

I cut and paste your forecasts, generally keeping to the big ones, like ENSO, and you try to change them anyway. For example, I cut and paste where you said that El Nino would last through 2011 and be very strong, and that a three-month La Nina would follow. That turned out to be a failed forecast. That's a huge failure, as being wrong about something so system-wide throws doubt on your other predictions. I looked at your claims for March 2011, and most of what you forecast, such as heavy snows in the Southeast, turned out to be wrong. Making long, rambling posts doesn't cover up these basic errors.

Read what was said to you. There's nothing rambling about it. I meant every word. I mean what I said, and say what I mean. It's not for you to 'like.' It is for you to 'get.'

Got that?

[AstroMet]

Sept 5, 2011 0:50:46 GMT mien said:

Insulting each other will never lead to a conclusion in an internet debate, as one is unable to agree with someone who just disrepected them, no matter how good your research and arguments may be.

It's always better just to respond with no emotions involved and simply adressing the concerns made

People are not machines, people are not robots. And there are never 'conclusions' in internet debates, especially with disrespecting trolls.

Climate science and meteorology are chock full of wannabe forecasters who never forecast but have plenty of time to waste with their ignorant words. I just put one of them in his place, which he duly deserved.

[commonsense]

Sept 5, 2011 0:50:46 GMT mien said:

Insulting each other will never lead to a conclusion in an internet debate, as one is unable to agree with someone who just disrepected them, no matter how good your research and arguments may be.

It's always better just to respond with no emotions involved and simply adressing the concerns made

I agree completely. Please note that I have done exactly as you said. I have stuck to the point and pretty much ignored all the insults. I did respond to Astromet's completely untrue accusation that I called him a nutjob, pointing out that he himself was the one who called himself a nutjob while pretending to use my voice.

This seems to be a good time to pause and take stock. The original post on this thread was Astromet's forecast of Jan 1. I've got a suggestion or two about it. First, it is in desperate need of organizing. It would be far better if it were posted in chronological order. For example, I randomly selected March 2011 as a basis for conversation. Trying to find out what Astromet actually said about that period is extremely time-consuming and difficult. In a forecast, March 2011 predictions should all be in one place. The way it is currently organized, which appears mostly random, appears to be a sort of sleight of hand, which does not lend credence to the forecast. I also note that the forecast itself claims to be written in December 2008 and then updated December 23, 2009. I think that's a mistake. Updates shouldn't be done to a forecast if one wants to show skill in forecasting, especially when one is believed by so few people. Of course, adding a link to an original time-stamped version is a quite acceptable way of handling this. Alternatively, start a new forecast. Astromet, do you have access to a December 2008 time-stamped version of your forecast? If not, then we'll have to limit this discussion solely to events after Jan 1, 2010, as things before that have been subject to (self-admitted) updates. Also, the use of the nonsensical term "ENSO" instead of the explicit terms "El Nino" and "La Nina" is both confusing and totally invalidates the forecast, as it opens up the opportunity to claim success when no skill was demonstrated at all. Yes, ENSO existed and will exist through 2012. That says nothing about the data values and how they change in ENSO. Also, it would be good to be more explicit about the difference between effects of El Nino and La Nina and the actual events themselves. It appears you forecast El Nino to be from 2010-2012 (a miss), and now fudge that to mean the effects of the 2009-2010 El Nino (not so bad), and then re-fudge that to 2009-2012 effects of ENSO, (something which is quite nebulous)

I would like to talk more about Astromet's forecast for the recent El Nino and La Nina, along with his predictions for March, 2011, which appears prominently in his Jan 1 2010 forecast. The storms in the Northeast are interesting, and a point in his favour, for example, while the lack of snow in the Southeast detracts from his forecast, as does the warm weather of March 2011 as a whole (when Astromet forecast cold conditions). Again, a time-stamped version of his original forecast would be most helpful. I googled and found a forecast at www.almanac.com/forum/weather-forum/theos-astromet-forecast-el-nino-2010

He joined that forum in September, 2009, which is only a couple months before his Jan 1, 2010 post here.

In September, 2009 he claims success at forecasting "the coming El Nino to arrive in mid-2009 " I've googled, and didn't notice any time-stamped version earlier, but from the bits online it seems that he actually forecast an El Nino to start in 2010 which was to last through 2012, with a three month mini La Nina interruption. At the time, (Jul 9, 2009), NOAA published a note that El Nino had arrived and forecast for El Nino to last through Winter 2009/2010.
www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html
In fact, El Nino fizzled out in May, 2010. It appears that NOAA was correct, and Astromet was wrong. Of course, I'm not counting the beginning of El Nino prediction as I don't see it online. Astromet, again, do you have a time-stamped 2008 version of your forecast?