*EL NINO/LA NINA FORECAST 2010-2011*

[thermostat]

Sept 5, 2011 21:18:25 GMT commonsense said:

Sept 5, 2011 0:50:46 GMT mien said:

Insulting each other will never lead to a conclusion in an internet debate, as one is unable to agree with someone who just disrepected them, no matter how good your research and arguments may be.

It's always better just to respond with no emotions involved and simply adressing the concerns made

I agree completely. Please note that I have done exactly as you said. I have stuck to the point and pretty much ignored all the insults. I did respond to Astromet's completely untrue accusation that I called him a nutjob, pointing out that he himself was the one who called himself a nutjob while pretending to use my voice.

This seems to be a good time to pause and take stock. The original post on this thread was Astromet's forecast of Jan 1. I've got a suggestion or two about it. First, it is in desperate need of organizing. It would be far better if it were posted in chronological order. For example, I randomly selected March 2011 as a basis for conversation. Trying to find out what Astromet actually said about that period is extremely time-consuming and difficult. In a forecast, March 2011 predictions should all be in one place. The way it is currently organized, which appears mostly random, appears to be a sort of sleight of hand, which does not lend credence to the forecast. I also note that the forecast itself claims to be written in December 2008 and then updated December 23, 2009. I think that's a mistake. Updates shouldn't be done to a forecast if one wants to show skill in forecasting, especially when one is believed by so few people. Of course, adding a link to an original time-stamped version is a quite acceptable way of handling this. Alternatively, start a new forecast. Astromet, do you have access to a December 2008 time-stamped version of your forecast? If not, then we'll have to limit this discussion solely to events after Jan 1, 2010, as things before that have been subject to (self-admitted) updates. Also, the use of the nonsensical term "ENSO" instead of the explicit terms "El Nino" and "La Nina" is both confusing and totally invalidates the forecast, as it opens up the opportunity to claim success when no skill was demonstrated at all. Yes, ENSO existed and will exist through 2012. That says nothing about the data values and how they change in ENSO. Also, it would be good to be more explicit about the difference between effects of El Nino and La Nina and the actual events themselves. It appears you forecast El Nino to be from 2010-2012 (a miss), and now fudge that to mean the effects of the 2009-2010 El Nino (not so bad), and then re-fudge that to 2009-2012 effects of ENSO, (something which is quite nebulous)

I would like to talk more about Astromet's forecast for the recent El Nino and La Nina, along with his predictions for March, 2011, which appears prominently in his Jan 1 2010 forecast. The storms in the Northeast are interesting, and a point in his favour, for example, while the lack of snow in the Southeast detracts from his forecast, as does the warm weather of March 2011 as a whole (when Astromet forecast cold conditions). Again, a time-stamped version of his original forecast would be most helpful. I googled and found a forecast at www.almanac.com/forum/weather-forum/theos-astromet-forecast-el-nino-2010

He joined that forum in September, 2009, which is only a couple months before his Jan 1, 2010 post here.

In September, 2009 he claims success at forecasting "the coming El Nino to arrive in mid-2009 " I've googled, and didn't notice any time-stamped version earlier, but from the bits online it seems that he actually forecast an El Nino to start in 2010 which was to last through 2012, with a three month mini La Nina interruption. At the time, (Jul 9, 2009), NOAA published a note that El Nino had arrived and forecast for El Nino to last through Winter 2009/2010.
www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html
In fact, El Nino fizzled out in May, 2010. It appears that NOAA was correct, and Astromet was wrong. Of course, I'm not counting the beginning of El Nino prediction as I don't see it online. Astromet, again, do you have a time-stamped 2008 version of your forecast?

commensense,

I guess you already know, but astromet is arguably the most long winded poster in the history of Solar Cycle 24. That is not to say that astromet has ever had anything of significance to post, just that astromet uses an aweful lot of words.

Regarding ENSO, let me suggest you consider reducing this discussion to a few, more concise points. Or not, your call. But it might make the discussion more user friendly.

[AstroMet]

Sept 6, 2011 3:44:47 GMT thermostat said:

commensense,

I guess you already know, but astromet is arguably the most long winded poster in the history of Solar Cycle 24. That is not to say that astromet has ever had anything of significance to post, just that astromet uses an aweful lot of words.

Regarding ENSO, let me suggest you consider reducing this discussion to a few, more concise points. Or not, your call. But it might make the discussion more user friendly.

First - t'stat, if you are unable to concentrate, then it is not a wonder why you are clueless about the realities of the Earth's climate and what drives it. You cannot reduce the Earth's climate and all that goes into discussion of it, by means of a twitter-like mentality.

The fact that you complain about having to read what I write (which is not long-winded) proves that you'd rather quip on the shortest items possible than get both your oars in the water and think critically for longer periods of time. That is how you learn.

Second - if I am so 'long-winded' than that also proves that you cannot and do not read books or papers; since it is impossible for you to stay on something longer than two (2) minutes - the average attention-span time of TV watchers. Critical thinkers are able to concentrate for much long periods of time. AGW kool-aid drinkers are not.

Third - you, 'commonsense' and the AGW pushers on this board and elsewhere, hardly ever note the real world climate and weather, as if it is somehow outside the Earth. That is why you are unable to see how what is forecasted takes place.

Mother Nature validates all prior forecasts. You people are too busy believing in and playing with computer climate models that cannot forecast at all. In fact, none of the climate centers forecasted ENSO. Not a single one, but you continue to believe them after the fact.

Fourth - simply do not read what I write, and that will solve your problem right there - since I am so 'long-winded.' For that is why you do not learn and will not until you cross the threshold from the mind of a child to the critical thinking skills of a grown man.

[icefisher]

First t'stat, if you are unable to concentrate, then it is not a wonder why you are clueless about the realities of the Earth's climate and what drives it.


Good point.

For those of us who do not understand it the test that the modelers also do not understand it are that observations are not matching their predictions.

Apparently Tstat has difficulty with divining either answer.

[dartman321]

I'm pleased to see that Astro spends the majority of his time these days defending his prognostications and insulting his doubters. Any new member joining this stream would quickly see the vulgar, vituperative, side of this charlatan.
commonsense- What you are not seeing from this current version of "The Astromet" is his prognostications about earth's climate affected by the alignment of star's in other galaxies. That was a staple of his older posts. That is the "astro"logy part of his fake science. He has abandoned his strong assertions along these lines and now bases his prognostications on "it's the sun, you idiot" type statements. I do agree with this newer, more vulgar, version of "the Astromet", on one principle.
The sun is our primary driver of Earth's long term climate. I think that this stream has long since "jumped the shark".
Astro, I will haunt you on this blog as long as I am able. You are a fake.

[AstroMet]

Sept 6, 2011 4:01:25 GMT icefisher said:

First t'stat, if you are unable to concentrate, then it is not a wonder why you are clueless about the realities of the Earth's climate and what drives it.


Good point.

For those of us who do not understand it the test that the modelers also do not understand it are that observations are not matching their predictions.

Apparently Tstat has difficulty with divining either answer.

Of course Icefisher, it is the same with all the AGW pushers and wannabes attracted to climate science and meteorology. They cannot forecast, and are so attention-span starved that anything that is longer than a couple of paragraphs doesn't jive with them.

They want to 'predict' but are unable to, but never accept that fact; which is why they repeat the same mistakes.

None of them - not one - saw ENSO coming - even up to a couple of months away.

They all jump aboard the ENSO train when it was obvious that El Nino was here. That's because they are all short-term thinkers and reactionaries. Meteorology and climate science is full of these jokers.

It is not a wonder why the climate model players do not accept that AGW violates the laws of physics - these people are that stupid - they will believe anything other than the climate facts of the matter.

They never actually observe the physics that drive Earth's climate. Most of them are in denial about the Sun. They would rather make things up than to do some hard forecasting work in the real world.

[AstroMet]

Sept 6, 2011 4:04:31 GMT dartman321 said:

I'm pleased to see that Astro spends the majority of his time these days defending his prognostications and insulting his doubters. Any new member joining this stream would quickly see the vulgar, vituperative, side of this charlatan.
commonsense- What you are not seeing from this current version of "The Astromet" is his prognostications about earth's climate affected by the alignment of star's in other galaxies. That was a staple of his older posts. That is the "astro"logy part of his fake science. He has abandoned his strong assertions along these lines and now bases his prognostications on "it's the sun, you idiot" type statements. I do agree with this newer, more vulgar, version of "the Astromet", on one principle.
The sun is our primary driver of Earth's long term climate. I think that this stream has long since "jumped the shark".
Astro, I will haunt you on this blog as long as I am able. You are a fake.

Laughing out loud. You've got to be kidding. If you think I'm fake because I forecast applying the Sun (which is in our solar system by the way)- and that drives the Earth's climate - you'll be waiting forever to 'prove' anything that is right in front of your face. It's just all too stupid. 'Haunt me?' What, like a ghost? Lol.

Get a job kiddo and get a life.

[thermostat]

I see astromet remains in verbose form.

My point; got something to say bro? just say it.

[AstroMet]

Sept 6, 2011 4:24:57 GMT thermostat said:

I see astromet remains in verbose form.

My point; got something to say bro? just say it.

Wake up. Quality trumps quantity. How's that bro?

[thermostat]

Sept 6, 2011 4:27:17 GMT AstroMet said:

Sept 6, 2011 4:24:57 GMT thermostat said:

I see astromet remains in verbose form.

My point; got something to say bro? just say it.

Wake up. Quality trumps quantity. How's that bro?

Astromet,

You flatter yourself! You assume you ever had something of substance to say!

[AstroMet]

Sept 6, 2011 4:32:24 GMT thermostat said:

Sept 6, 2011 4:27:17 GMT AstroMet said:

Wake up. Quality trumps quantity. How's that bro?

Astromet,

You flatter yourself! You assume you ever had something of substance to say!

Thermostat, quality over quantity. Now, I said that, because if you look at the board's list, you are on four of the leading threads here with your comments. You do this a lot, nearly every night in fact, with short comments that you believe make you correct.

I am twice your age, much more experienced and know what I am doing. For you to claim I have nothing of 'substance' to say is not only insulting but stupid. My expertise is not for you to mock since you do not have knowledge or experience in astronomic long-range climate/weather forecasting. You will not learn about it by behaving as an ignoramus either.

Since joining SC24 last June, you have made 1,322 posts. Many of them very short comments. This is not Twitter bro. It also shows that you are young, ideological and inexperienced, and falsely believe that having to what 'appears' to be the 'last word' makes you right - when it does not.

That is what I mean by quality over quantity.

[thermostat]

Sept 6, 2011 4:42:35 GMT AstroMet said:

Sept 6, 2011 4:32:24 GMT thermostat said:

Astromet,

You flatter yourself! You assume you ever had something of substance to say!

Thermostat, quality over quantity. Now, I said that, because if you look at the board's list, you are on four of the leading threads here with your comments. You do this a lot, nearly every night in fact, with short comments that you believe make you correct.

I am twice your age, much more experienced and know what I am doing. For you to claim I have nothing of 'substance' to say is not only insulting but stupid. My expertise is not for you to mock since you do not have knowledge or experience in astronomic long-range climate/weather forecasting. You will not learn about it by behaving as an ignoramus either.

Since joining SC24 last June, you have made 1,322 posts. Many of them very short comments. This is not Twitter bro. It also shows that you are young, ideological and inexperienced, and falsely believe that having to what 'appears' to be the 'last word' makes you right - when it does not.

That is what I mean by quality over quantity.

Astromet,

I keep waiting for you to say something of significance. I'm stilll waiting.

[thermostat]

Astromet,

This forum stuff is tough. Fair enough!

If you have some key points to make, what are they?

[commonsense]

Sept 6, 2011 3:55:22 GMT AstroMet said:

Third - you, 'commonsense' and the AGW pushers on this board and elsewhere, hardly ever note the real world climate and weather, as if it is somehow outside the Earth. That is why you are unable to see how what is forecasted takes place.

Mother Nature validates all prior forecasts. You people are too busy believing in and playing with computer climate models that cannot forecast at all. In fact, none of the climate centers forecasted ENSO. Not a single one, but you continue to believe them after the fact.

Nonsense. I have looked at two very specific forecasts of yours and the subsequent real-world events. Did you notice that I posted a July 2009 forecast from NOAA which correctly predicted the end of the El Nino? Obviously, the experts do have some skill. Your claims to the contrary are wrong.

1) After it started, you forecast a very strong El Nino to last through 2012. REALITY was a mediocre El Nino that ended in early 2010, exactly as predicted by NOAA.

2) March 2011. You forecast bitterly cold weather in North America. It turned out fairly warm. You forecast heavy snows in the Southeast USA. There was little to no snow. There were huge storms in the Northeast, so you get a consolation prize on that one.

I asked for an explanation of the astrometeorological reasons for your March 2011 forecast. You haven't responded yet. Please do.

I asked for a December 2008 copy of your forecast. You haven't responded yet. Please do. It could bolster your claim to have forecast the start of the 2009 El Nino.

That December 2008 time-stamped copy of your forecast is needed to fully discuss your El Nino prediction. If you don't provide it we will all rightly assume that you didn't make the forecast in 2008, or its contents are not supportive of your case. Spend more time defending yourself and explaining your science and less time ranting.

Once we complete the analysis of your previous El Nino and La Nina and March 2011 predictions, we can look at others if you like. I assume there are some that you cherish (Most likely related to the Japanese earthquake. That one looks very interesting!). We can also discuss your current short-term predictions for weather and ENSO. Everyone will enjoy seeing if they pan out.

And in the future, please sort your forecasts chronologically. The random slop method you currently use is near useless.

What I'm doing on this thread should greatly assist you, assuming your magnificent powers of forecasting with 90% accuracy are true. You've got to get organized enough to convince others. You've got to be more specific and stop using useless terms like ENSO and instead refer to specific phases. You've got to stop ranting. You've got to stop insulting. The worst was when you called yourself a nutjob and all those other things while pretending to use my voice. That really hurt your credibility.

I must say there are things about your forecast that indicate some skill. The Japanese earthquake. The Northeast storms of March 2011. The beginning of the El Nino might be one. The La Nina is another. You got the magnitudes and specifics wrong, but the generalities could still have some skill. Let's explore together and find out.

[AstroMet]

Sept 6, 2011 5:46:54 GMT commonsense said:

Sept 6, 2011 3:55:22 GMT AstroMet said:

Third - you, 'commonsense' and the AGW pushers on this board and elsewhere, hardly ever note the real world climate and weather, as if it is somehow outside the Earth. That is why you are unable to see how what is forecasted takes place.

Mother Nature validates all prior forecasts. You people are too busy believing in and playing with computer climate models that cannot forecast at all. In fact, none of the climate centers forecasted ENSO. Not a single one, but you continue to believe them after the fact.

Nonsense. I have looked at two very specific forecasts of yours and the subsequent real-world events. Did you notice that I posted a July 2009 forecast from NOAA which correctly predicted the end of the El Nino? Obviously, the experts do have some skill. Your claims to the contrary are wrong.

1) After it started, you forecast a very strong El Nino to last through 2012. REALITY was a mediocre El Nino that ended in early 2010, exactly as predicted by NOAA.

2) March 2011. You forecast bitterly cold weather in North America. It turned out fairly warm. You forecast heavy snows in the Southeast USA. There was little to no snow. There were huge storms in the Northeast, so you get a consolation prize on that one.

I asked for an explanation of the astrometeorological reasons for your March 2011 forecast. You haven't responded yet. Please do.

I asked for a December 2008 copy of your forecast. You haven't responded yet. Please do. It could bolster your claim to have forecast the start of the 2009 El Nino.

That December 2008 time-stamped copy of your forecast is needed to fully discuss your El Nino prediction. If you don't provide it we will all rightly assume that you didn't make the forecast in 2008, or its contents are not supportive of your case. Spend more time defending yourself and explaining your science and less time ranting.

Once we complete the analysis of your previous El Nino and La Nina and March 2011 predictions, we can look at others if you like. I assume there are some that you cherish (Most likely related to the Japanese earthquake. That one looks very interesting!). We can also discuss your current short-term predictions for weather and ENSO. Everyone will enjoy seeing if they pan out.

And in the future, please sort your forecasts chronologically. The random slop method you currently use is near useless.

What I'm doing on this thread should greatly assist you, assuming your magnificent powers of forecasting with 90% accuracy are true. You've got to get organized enough to convince others. You've got to be more specific and stop using useless terms like ENSO and instead refer to specific phases. You've got to stop ranting. You've got to stop insulting. The worst was when you called yourself a nutjob and all those other things while pretending to use my voice. That really hurt your credibility.

I must say there are things about your forecast that indicate some skill. The Japanese earthquake. The Northeast storms of March 2011. The beginning of the El Nino might be one. The La Nina is another. You got the magnitudes and specifics wrong, but the generalities could still have some skill. Let's explore together and find out.

I forecasted the Japan Earthquake with the same skill set which I forecasted ENSO. All by the princips of astrological forecasting. I am not the first to do this, as others like Brahe, Kepler, Newton and Franklin - all mundane astrologers & astrometeorologists who practiced the science, were able to, by astronomic means.

What was once known as 'weather prophecy' is today known as meteorology and climate science - invented by the forecasting astrologers of yore. It is, and has always been a Science.

Moreover, no, you are not qualified to do an analysis of my forecasts because you have shown bias. You can easily find my successes and busts online yourself with the results of the climate and weather in the real world. I already did some of that for you earlier on this thread. You can easily find my public forecasts online. Anyone who is not biased knows I forecasted ENSO far in advance. I will forecast the next ENSO too. I already know when it will happen.

Also -

I am a very busy professional forecaster. I do not 'rant' - what I do not like, nor will accept are non-equals who play silly games with insults. For you to say you did not insult me and my work simply insults my intelligence. Go back and re-read your own comments to me, and then tell me, do you think you were respectful in the least?

There are people out there who lie saying that I did not forecast what I actually did forecast, simply because they do not want to believe it, or think because they cannot do it, then no one can. That is not only arrogant and intellectually dishonest, but it is also stupid.

Climatology/meteorology, in my view, has been corrupted for decades by losers who cannot forecast, but who pretend to be able to do just that. You will find their busts - of which there are tens of thousands - very easily. They cannot forecast but do not like it when others are able to do just that.

That is why the field has suffered so much. The ideology, careerism and amateurism has turned a great professional field into the realm of pseudo-science fueled by careerism, cheating, lying, jealousy, rudeness and freshman high-school antics. Not exactly a credible way to manage a serious business as climate and weather forecasting, is it?

And me defending myself has nothing to do with my 'credibility.' What should I do, allow people to step over my hard work with their bullshit?

When that happens, I fight back and put those who play stupid games back in their place. I do not like tooting my own horn, but some of you are so ignorant you don't know any better, so no, I do not need you to validate anything for me thank you very much, the weather and events do that quite fine all by themselves.

Do you think that professionals are not tough? They are very tough kiddo, so beware, and mind your manners or be prepared to get bruised. This is the real world and I am a grown man, not a child. If you do not behave like a bully then you will not get beat up. I do not like bullies. I give bullies what they deserve, a mouth full of loose teeth. So, just don't go there. I'm no 'girly man.'

As for exploring together -

The best way to learn, is to ask good questions, and then to study. That has not changed since the origin of humanity. You do not demean others practicing a skill set you do not possess via improper criticism based on your ignorance. I can smell that coming from miles away and will defend astronomic forecasting and my work with ferocity. I could care less if you like it or not.

I am tougher than you think and have a very thick skin, so do not go there and you won't be hurt. That will not change, especially in light of the lies and corruption in climate science and meteorology with the AGW bullshit shoved down humanity's throat. I fight that crap with knowledge - and I walk my talk. I forecast and let the chips fall where they may. I don't pretend to know everything because I don't.

I either do or I do not. It is that simple.

My so-called 'magnificent powers' as you call it, are not such. It is my skill set. It is what I do. My forecasting expertise comes from HARD WORK - something I see lacking in the field of forecasting.

Too many wannabes want 'glamor' but are lazy. They simply do not want to put in the thousands of hours it takes to become a good forecaster. I never sought, and never will seek 'glamor' for I am too busy just working. Period. I will leave it to others to say what they want. The world is full of people who want lots for very little. I chose to do what comes naturally to me.

I work - that is all I do.

I have forecasted many things before that you know nothing about, so it is your own lack of knowledge on this that you go by, not anything that is lacking with me. I have forecasted many storms and climate events - by astronomical means - well in advance which you have not even heard about. Every time a new member comes here, they act as if I just started or something based on their own lack of knowledge. I've been forecasting for many years.

Climate and weather events validate all forecasts - successes and busts. I have had both and will continue to have them. That is part of the business of forecasting which many of you wannabes do not get. You think one has to be 'perfect' or something to be of value. That is the mindset of an infant.

I strive to be at least 85% in my forecasts, which are long-range. In order for you to see this for yourself, you have to look at the actual events with better eyes than you have right now, since many of you have such short-range views and even shorter memories and lack concentration abilities.

Forecasting is not a game. It is serious work, so if you want to learn from a master forecaster, then give the respect where it is due, or be on your way.

Mocking, insulting, playing games, etc., I have no time for and will put you in your place as well because I am not a wimp. If I chose to defend myself against anyone - including you - then take it like a man and stop whining with stupid posts on my thread.

You want nice? Then be nice. You want mean? Well, I can be mean too if that is the game you want to play. It's a two-way street pal. I can throw punches with the best of them; but I'd rather just be working.

I am not adverse to helping you learn about astrometeorology and long-range forecasting. I am a gentleman and a master forecaster, so give respect, then you may find me much more palatable. However, do not confuse my gentleness for weakness. That is a big mistake to make with me.

[glennkoks]

Astromet, I don't want to come off as rude because you clearly put a lot of time and pride in your forecasts but a paragraph by paragraph review of your original post would indicate a very poor level of success. I certainly would be disappointed if I actually paid you for your services as I don't see any level of accuracy beyond chance.

Experience has also taught me that those who truly are "master forecasters" and "professionals" in any field don't toot their own horn. They don't have to. Their record speaks for itself. I see nothing from your original post that would lead me to believe you are a "master forecaster" or persuade me to pay for your services.

You clearly spend a great deal of time researching and pouring over the data but that does not make your "forecasts" statistically valid. There are hundreds of scholars spending thousands of hours trying to solve the "bible code". However, that does not make them master forecasters or even prove the existence of a code hidden within the pages of the bible.

You are correct, forecasting is not a game but respect has to be earned and judging from your original post that would lead me to believe you are a "master forecaster".