|
|
Post by AstroMet on Sept 6, 2011 7:19:12 GMT
Astromet, I don't want to come off as rude because you clearly put a lot of time and pride in your forecasts but a paragraph by paragraph review of your original post would indicate a very poor level of success. I certainly would be disappointed if I actually paid you for your services as I don't see any level of accuracy beyond chance. Experience has also taught me that those who truly are "master forecasters" and "professionals" in any field don't toot their own horn. They don't have to. Their record speaks for itself. I see nothing from your original post that would lead me to believe you are a "master forecaster" or persuade me to pay for your services. You clearly spend a great deal of time researching and pouring over the data but that does not make your "forecasts" statistically valid. There are hundreds of scholars spending thousands of hours trying to solve the "bible code". However, that does not make them master forecasters or even prove the existence of a code hidden within the pages of the bible. You are correct, forecasting is not a game but respect has to be earned and judging from your original post that would lead me to believe you are a "master forecaster". That's your opinion, fine, but it does not mean that you are right. I mean what I say and I say what I mean. There's no need to read between-the-lines for 'codes' or to do a line-by-line nickel-and-dime paragraph analysis of what I said. It is what it is. Period. You do not have to agree with it for it to be anything other than that. And that is the problem with some people in the world in my view; since you're looking for things that are not there rather than just accepting what is actually right there. I've earned respect with my hard forecasting work over decades and my clients and those who follow my forecasts give me that respect. I don't know about any 'codes' you talk of in the Bible, as from what I've read of the Bible, it pretty much is straight-forward and tells it like it is. Those looking for 'codes' aren't reading the same Bible I read. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and swims like a duck - then it's a duck. Where's the freaking code in that? |
|
|
|
Post by commonsense on Sept 6, 2011 7:31:15 GMT
You self-promote a lot, and ignore reasonable questions, refutations, and requests. We are looking at two very specific forecasts of yours, The El Nino/La Nina pair of 2009-2011 and March 2011's weather. I've asked for a time-stamped copy of your 2008 forecast to see if you forecast the beginning of the El Nino correctly. You haven't responded. I noted that you got the magnitude of the El Nino wrong. You haven't responded. I noted that you got the end of the El Nino wrong. Again, no data comes forth from you, just self-promoting claims of near-perfection. I noted you got March 2011 mostly wrong. You mentioned the storms in the Northeast, but didn't explain the temperatures or lack of snow in the Southeast. If you are a forecaster, then you should be able to point to the data and show how you got those two things "a bit off". Let's clear up these very specific points before going off on long-winded talks about being a tough-guy and knocking out teeth.
So, either defend your forecasts about El Nino/La Nina and March 2011 or admit you got them wrong. Nothing wrong with admitting that you got two forecasts wrong. Nothing wrong with saying you came close - after all, repeatedly getting close shows skill in the climate game. I won't play your game of bait and switch. The El Nino/la Nina is the core topic of this thread, so discussing whether you got it right and how you came about your forecast is primary to the thread. March 2011 was woven throughout your first post, so it too is primary. Additionally, since it was selected randomly as a test of your skill, its results are key.
Like I said, once we finish discussing these two forecasts, including the rationale for why you made them in the first place and whether you got them right, we can move on to other forecasts, like the Japanese earthquake. Otherwise, everyone will have to conclude that you get most things wrong and sometimes you make a lucky guess. You worried about my being biased. Well, you don't have to convince me - there's a lot of people watching. You need to show them. After all, that's the point of this thread, isn't it? To promote your brand of weather and climate forecasting?
I'm still waiting for a link to a time-stamped version of your December 2008 forecast. Please link to it and actually respond to some of the points I've made.
And please don't forget the future. What will the ENSO index be for each of the next six months? How do you resolve this latest prediction with your original forecast that El Nino would be very strong and last through 2012? (Or did I misread your original forecast? If so, give quotes we can all check, along with an explanation. To help you out, you could show how the quote I'm referring to actually was discussing El Nino effects, not the El Nino itself, and then explain that - though with such a strong recent La Nina I think you'll have a hard time explaining.) Things change and nobody's perfect. Don't be afraid to tell why your story has changed.
Give a specific six month forecast for any single place on the planet, again, month by month. Add in any forecast for major events, including the day, location, and intensity, for any places you desire. This late in the season, you surely know the intensity and track of each and every Atlantic hurricane in the works. Even a hurricane count would be helpful. Don't limit yourself to my suggestions, but give us a few of your strongest forecasts. I'm not looking for a massive forecast for everywhere and anywhere, but just a few specific forecasts we can use as a sample to test your skill. Give us your best, explain why they will happen, and we'll have fun seeing how well you do.
|
|
|
|
Post by commonsense on Sept 6, 2011 7:40:40 GMT
There's no need to <snip> do a line-by-line nickel-and-dime paragraph analysis of what I said. That's obviously wrong. You are making line-by-line forecasts. Determining your skill as a forecaster absolutely requires going line by line through the original forecast and scoring how it turned out. Either you're right more often than random chance, or you aren't. You seem to be afraid of the results of such analysis. Why? |
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Sept 6, 2011 7:47:40 GMT
There's no need to <snip> do a line-by-line nickel-and-dime paragraph analysis of what I said. That's obviously wrong. You are making line-by-line forecasts. Determining your skill as a forecaster absolutely requires going line by line through the original forecast and scoring how it turned out. Either you're right more often than random chance, or you aren't. You seem to be afraid of the results of such analysis. Why? If I were 'afraid' of the results of any analysis then I would not publish my forecasts for all to see, yes? Also, there is no such thing as 'random chance' in my forecasting. That is a silly thing to say. You are a linear thinker by the content of your own comments, so you do not see things holistically, or by interdisciplinary means. That is a major problem you have which you need to correct. My forecasting work speaks for itself. If it were all crap then you would not constantly comment since you would have much better things to do then to be around a forecaster who is always 'wrong,' yes? The problem with you appears to be that you want to deny that which you do not want to believe which you see with your own eyes. That is a personal issue you have kiddo that only you can correct - no one can do it for you. Moreover, who said you are qualified to determine the skill of any forecaster? Who gave you that right? Where did you earn it? How are you able to say you are qualified to do such a thing, or to analyze at all when you do not possess the skill set? |
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Sept 6, 2011 7:49:14 GMT
You self-promote a lot, and ignore reasonable questions, refutations, and requests. We are looking at two very specific forecasts of yours, The El Nino/La Nina pair of 2009-2011 and March 2011's weather. I've asked for a time-stamped copy of your 2008 forecast to see if you forecast the beginning of the El Nino correctly. You haven't responded. I noted that you got the magnitude of the El Nino wrong. You haven't responded. I noted that you got the end of the El Nino wrong. Again, no data comes forth from you, just self-promoting claims of near-perfection. I noted you got March 2011 mostly wrong. You mentioned the storms in the Northeast, but didn't explain the temperatures or lack of snow in the Southeast. If you are a forecaster, then you should be able to point to the data and show how you got those two things "a bit off". Let's clear up these very specific points before going off on long-winded talks about being a tough-guy and knocking out teeth. So, either defend your forecasts about El Nino/La Nina and March 2011 or admit you got them wrong. Nothing wrong with admitting that you got two forecasts wrong. Nothing wrong with saying you came close - after all, repeatedly getting close shows skill in the climate game. I won't play your game of bait and switch. The El Nino/la Nina is the core topic of this thread, so discussing whether you got it right and how you came about your forecast is primary to the thread. March 2011 was woven throughout your first post, so it too is primary. Additionally, since it was selected randomly as a test of your skill, its results are key. Like I said, once we finish discussing these two forecasts, including the rationale for why you made them in the first place and whether you got them right, we can move on to other forecasts, like the Japanese earthquake. Otherwise, everyone will have to conclude that you get most things wrong and sometimes you make a lucky guess. You worried about my being biased. Well, you don't have to convince me - there's a lot of people watching. You need to show them. After all, that's the point of this thread, isn't it? To promote your brand of weather and climate forecasting? I'm still waiting for a link to a time-stamped version of your December 2008 forecast. Please link to it and actually respond to some of the points I've made. And please don't forget the future. What will the ENSO index be for each of the next six months? How do you resolve this latest prediction with your original forecast that El Nino would be very strong and last through 2012? (Or did I misread your original forecast? If so, give quotes we can all check, along with an explanation. To help you out, you could show how the quote I'm referring to actually was discussing El Nino effects, not the El Nino itself, and then explain that - though with such a strong recent La Nina I think you'll have a hard time explaining.) Things change and nobody's perfect. Don't be afraid to tell why your story has changed. Give a specific six month forecast for any single place on the planet, again, month by month. Add in any forecast for major events, including the day, location, and intensity, for any places you desire. This late in the season, you surely know the intensity and track of each and every Atlantic hurricane in the works. Even a hurricane count would be helpful. Don't limit yourself to my suggestions, but give us a few of your strongest forecasts. I'm not looking for a massive forecast for everywhere and anywhere, but just a few specific forecasts we can use as a sample to test your skill. Give us your best, explain why they will happen, and we'll have fun seeing how well you do. Have fun. I work for a living. You seem to have a lot of time on your hands. That's a big mistake in this world economy. You go right ahead and have fun - but do it elsewhere. I will work. |
|
|
|
Post by commonsense on Sept 6, 2011 8:14:19 GMT
If I were 'afraid' of the results of any analysis then I would not publish my forecasts. Also, there is no such thing as 'random chance' in forecasting. That is simply a silly thing to say.
Forecasting success is judged by how much better it is shown to be than random chance. Your forecasts are not structured for easy analysis and they seem to change. For example, you forecast a very strong El Nino to last from 2010 through 2012. The last forecast of yours was that there would neutral ENSO values through 2016, I think. Thus, you could be afraid of a detailed analysis of your forecasts and how they change over time versus what happens in reality. It shows up your errors.
Moreover, who said that you are qualified to determine the skill of any forecaster? Who gave you that right? Where did you earn it?
I'm qualified to read your forecasts and look up (or ask for links to) the results. I'm qualified to note your errors and give you a chance to clarify. As to determining your skill? That's for each and every individual reader of this thread. Yes, to actually translate the results of this discussion into a scientific accuracy score is beyond the scope of a blog, but then you can't get a real scientific analysis done to your work because like you have said yourself, scientists mostly respond to you with scorn and derision. Frankly, I think estimating whether you are anywhere close to 85% accurate will be easy. It won't take nearly that much to convince me that you're not a complete fake.
How are you able to say you are qualified to do such a thing, or to analyze at all when you do not possess the skill set?
You are worried about the wrong thing. My conclusion shouldn't worry you in the slightest. There are a lot of people watching. Your goal should be to convince them. Besides, it is pretty easy to evaluate statements you made, such as that March 2011 would be extremely cold in North America, and compare it to the weather in March 2011 (average to relatively warm).
I note that instead of providing data to back up your claims for El Nino and La Nina of 2009-2012 and March 2011 weather, you are squirming and evading. Your audience is probably drawing very negative conclusions about your purported skills. I'd switch tactics and actually provide some evidence of skill or rationale as to why you erred pronto if I were you -- that is unless you are totally skillless - in that case I'd continue to do exactly what you're doing.
|
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Sept 6, 2011 8:19:51 GMT
If I were 'afraid' of the results of any analysis then I would not publish my forecasts. Also, there is no such thing as 'random chance' in forecasting. That is simply a silly thing to say.
Forecasting success is judged by how much better it is shown to be than random chance. Your forecasts are not structured for easy analysis and they seem to change. For example, you forecast a very strong El Nino to last from 2010 through 2012. The last forecast of yours was that there would neutral ENSO values through 2016, I think. Thus, you could be afraid of a detailed analysis of your forecasts and how they change over time versus what happens in reality. It shows up your errors. Moreover, who said that you are qualified to determine the skill of any forecaster? Who gave you that right? Where did you earn it? I'm qualified to read your forecasts and look up (or ask for links to) the results. I'm qualified to note your errors and give you a chance to clarify. As to determining your skill? That's for each and every individual reader of this thread. Yes, to actually translate the results of this discussion into a scientific accuracy score is beyond the scope of a blog, but then you can't get a real scientific analysis done to your work because like you have said yourself, scientists mostly respond to you with scorn and derision. Frankly, I think estimating whether you are anywhere close to 85% accurate will be easy. It won't take nearly that much to convince me that you're not a complete fake. How are you able to say you are qualified to do such a thing, or to analyze at all when you do not possess the skill set? You are worried about the wrong thing. My conclusion shouldn't worry you in the slightest. There are a lot of people watching. Your goal should be to convince them. Besides, it is pretty easy to evaluate statements you made, such as that March 2011 would be extremely cold in North America, and compare it to the weather in March 2011 (average to relatively warm). I note that instead of providing data to back up your claims for El Nino and La Nina of 2009-2012 and March 2011 weather, you are squirming and evading. Your audience is probably drawing very negative conclusions about your purported skills. I'd switch tactics and actually provide some evidence of skill or rationale as to why you erred pronto if I were you -- that is unless you are totally skillless - in that case I'd continue to do exactly what you're doing. Perhaps if you learned how to read long-range forecasts and also how to look at the Earth's climate than you would not have such problems. The evading here is being done by you - not me. Moreover, there is no need to have 'tactics' with me. The use of that word by you presumes dishonesty, as does the use of the word "worry?" All you have to do is to look at the world's real weather and climate which I made in my ENSO forecast. There would be your so-called 'analysis.' Again, the weather and climate conditions/events validates all forecasts. I've been forecasting a long time and my work is published for all to see. you certainly are not going to change anyone's views. People can see and think for themselves. They do not need you for that. One more thing: answer some questions: How old are you? And why do you post anonymously? If you are able to be qualified to 'test' anything then shouldn't we know who you are? I mean, is your name really 'common sense' and just what does that name pertain to? Now, if you do not do this, then I will simply ignore you, because I believe that you are intellectually being dishonest. Prove me wrong. |
|
|
|
Post by commonsense on Sept 6, 2011 8:26:44 GMT
Have fun. I work for a living. You seem to have a lot of time on your hands. That's a big mistake in this world economy. You go right ahead and have fun - but do it elsewhere. I will work. I'm retired, so yes, I do have a lot of time on my hands. I'll have fun right here, thank you very much. We're talking about ENSO forecasting here, so please stick to the subject. Why did your prediction of a very strong El Nino for 2010-2012 not come to pass and why didn't you forecast the extremely strong La Nina we recently had (though you did forecast a mini-la Nina to be embedded in the El Nino)? |
|
|
|
Post by commonsense on Sept 6, 2011 8:46:55 GMT
One more thing: answer some questions: How old are you? And why do you post anonymously? If you are able to be qualified to 'test' anything then shouldn't we know who you are? I mean, is your name really 'common sense' and just what does that name pertain to? Now, if you do not do this, then I will simply ignore you, because I believe that you are intellectually being dishonest. Prove me wrong. Since you asked, I'll tell you the truth. I'm 63. I put in my profile that I'm in my mid-40s - just to pick a random age. It's the internet and age and other personal data isn't relevant at all. What one has to say is what's important. I post anonymously because I'm a firm believer in privacy. I like my life the way it is and don't need to have some nut with a gun show up on my doorstep, for example. The screen name CommonSense pertains to what I think should be used on a scientific blog. That's why I have been providing what I think would be entertaining ways for everyone here to form conclusions about this new (old) type of forecasting you call astrometeorology. If it is a valid science and your skills at it are adequate, then you should welcome my presence. I'm giving you a chance to showcase your skill set. Like I said, you don't have to worry about my individual conclusions, but those of the readers as a whole. Note that one guy who reads this thread, Glennkoks, piped in with his current analysis. There's got to be a lot more Glennkoks out there. So far, I don't think I've seen a single defender of your forecasting ability chime in. That should tell you something. (Here's where all you readers who believe in Astromet's skill post something showing your support) |
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Sept 6, 2011 13:38:08 GMT
Astromet, It is not my opinion. It is fact. A line by line, paragraph by paragraph review of your forecast clearly reveals the inaccuracies. Opinion has nothing to do with it.
|
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Sept 6, 2011 16:48:49 GMT
Have fun. I work for a living. You seem to have a lot of time on your hands. That's a big mistake in this world economy. You go right ahead and have fun - but do it elsewhere. I will work. I'm retired, so yes, I do have a lot of time on my hands. I'll have fun right here, thank you very much. We're talking about ENSO forecasting here, so please stick to the subject. Why did your prediction of a very strong El Nino for 2010-2012 not come to pass and why didn't you forecast the extremely strong La Nina we recently had (though you did forecast a mini-la Nina to be embedded in the El Nino)? Well, I'm not retired and do not have a lot of free time on my hands. I publish my public long-range climate/weather forecasts as a public service to give people a heads up on the longer-term outlook, of which there are very few of in the world. Considering the fact that you just got here, on a board called SolarHam, and SolarCycle 24; yet you belittle the major role of the Sun on Earth's climate; I am not surprised as to why you falsely believe that I do not have people who follow my work. There are tens of thousands of them around the world. As I've said, I was working on my ENSO forecast back in 2006, see -> www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/6879-The-Next-ENSO-An-Astromet-ReportDuring the time of working on my ENSO forecast, I shared some of my preliminary findings in 2006 while I was working on a long-range outlook >http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/cyclesi/message/12256?var=1&l=1 I posted another ENSO outlook in 2007, then my full ENSO forecast in 2008, again in 2009, and here on SC24 on Jan. 1, 2010, on this thread. I provide, as a public service, my long-range forecasts. If you have a problem with my forecasts, simply do not read them. That would solve your problem right then and there. On your second comment - ENSO came about as forecasted, with a La Nina that followed (which is not always the case after El Nino) and I forecasted that as well. Whether or not you want to accept that is an issue you have, not me. Again, I am not retired like you; so do not have the time to sit around. You would be better off using all that free time you have to learn about astronomic long-range forecasting. Meteorological astrology or Astrometeorology is the practice of applying the astrological/astronomical placements of the Sun, Moon, and planets to forecast the weather. Astrometeorology is thousands of years old and based on astronomical positions that directly affect the weather on Earth. Ancient classical astrologers created weather forecasting known as meteorology by noting the positions of stars, planets, the Sun, and Moon.
According to their texts, when planets occupy constellations as seen from the earth, and that are harmonious to one another, or that are favorable, the earth in general experiences positive weather conditions.
But when planets hold mathematical aspects that are discordant across regions of the earth, the atmosphere responds and the weather is unseasonable.
Classical astrologers of note such as Claudius Ptolemy constructed a treatise on forecasting weather via astrological means, but it wasn't until the year 1686 that a large volume written in English was devoted only to astrometeorology by Dr. J. Goad in his book, Astro-Meteorologica published in London, England.
Goad's volume consisted of principles and rules forecasting weather astrologically. One of the most famous astrometeorologists was the mundane astrologer Johannes Kepler, who forecast weather in Europe applying astrological principles.You can start reading Claudius Ptolemy, the mundane astrologer who was known as the father of astronomy and weather forecasting. Start with his Tetrabiblois - meaning 'four books.' Additional materials - See -> astrofactoria.webcindario.com/Opus2.htmSee -> www.john-daly.com/sun-enso/revisit.htmSee -> cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/aa7704-07.pdfSee -> cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/nature02995.pdfSee -> astrofactoria.webcindario.com/Book6.htmSee -> books.google.com/books?id=ny1t6ZHQtNQC&pg=PA15&lpg=PA15&dq=astrometeorology&source=bl&ots=t77j0L9Jbw&sig=_maJ9V3I0PsHSKfrrE5_yeGskPw&hl=en&ei=UFZmTtyVAeb40gGp9-TMDQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2&ved=0CCYQ6AEwATiCAQ#v=onepage&q&f=falseGood luck with your studies. |
|
|
|
Post by commonsense on Sept 6, 2011 19:03:31 GMT
As I've said, I was working on my ENSO forecast back in 2006, see -> www.hardcoreweather.com/showthrea....Astromet-ReportGreat. Let's look at the highlights and see how you did. "At this present time, the Earth is seeing a Solar minima cycle, but all that is about to change with the coming of what should be one of the strongest solar maxima in 50 years that will begin next year and peak during the years 2010, 2011 and 2012"Well, gee, Astromet, it looks like you got it completely wrong. "According to my calculations, we can expect to witness another ENSO event between 2006-2011."Now there's a "strong" forecast. What sort of ENSO event? Golly, sometime over a six year period? That doesn't sound like much of a forecast, other than that we wouldn't have ENSO neutral conditions for six years. Too vague to score. This one goes into the bit bucket. "What is frightening about this is the fact that the strength of the Sun will be much stronger than that of 1958"Oops, yet another miss. That's 0 for 2 from this forecast. Thanks for the link! During the time of working on my ENSO forecast, I shared some of my preliminary findings in 2006 while I was working on a long-range outlook >http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/cyclesi/message/12256?var=1&l=1
" an El Nino is most likely to occur later this year, and into 2007. This was confirmed by the retrograde of the planet Venus in December 2005. The same retrograde of Venus took place at the end of 1997, and coincided with an El Nino in 1998.
What is frightening about this El Nino is the fact that the strength of the Sun in the years ahead will be much stronger than that of 1958"and "It is almost as if this El Nino wants to stick around a while, just plain weird, like it won't go away or something?"Looks a bit better! On July 9 you forecast an El Nino that arrived in September. Not much lead time, but certainly a HIT! Unfortunately, you got the solar output wrong. I note that your forecast kinda contradicts itself. You mentioned 2007, but then added the sticks around phrase for El Nino's end. Others may disagree, but I've got to score the end of El Nino forecast as a miss. That's 1 out of 3. Let's add up the score. You got 1 out of 5 right, for an accuracy of perhaps 20%. Not very good. Looks like random chance so far.
|
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Sept 6, 2011 19:32:09 GMT
As I've said, I was working on my ENSO forecast back in 2006, see -> www.hardcoreweather.com/showthrea....Astromet-ReportGreat. Let's look at the highlights and see how you did. "At this present time, the Earth is seeing a Solar minima cycle, but all that is about to change with the coming of what should be one of the strongest solar maxima in 50 years that will begin next year and peak during the years 2010, 2011 and 2012"Well, gee, Astromet, it looks like you got it completely wrong. "According to my calculations, we can expect to witness another ENSO event between 2006-2011."Now there's a "strong" forecast. What sort of ENSO event? Golly, sometime over a six year period? That doesn't sound like much of a forecast, other than that we wouldn't have ENSO neutral conditions for six years. Too vague to score. This one goes into the bit bucket. "What is frightening about this is the fact that the strength of the Sun will be much stronger than that of 1958"Oops, yet another miss. That's 0 for 2 from this forecast. Thanks for the link! During the time of working on my ENSO forecast, I shared some of my preliminary findings in 2006 while I was working on a long-range outlook >http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/cyclesi/message/12256?var=1&l=1
" an El Nino is most likely to occur later this year, and into 2007. This was confirmed by the retrograde of the planet Venus in December 2005. The same retrograde of Venus took place at the end of 1997, and coincided with an El Nino in 1998.
What is frightening about this El Nino is the fact that the strength of the Sun in the years ahead will be much stronger than that of 1958"and "It is almost as if this El Nino wants to stick around a while, just plain weird, like it won't go away or something?"Looks a bit better! On July 9 you forecast an El Nino that arrived in September. Not much lead time, but certainly a HIT! Unfortunately, you got the solar output wrong. I note that your forecast kinda contradicts itself. You mentioned 2007, but then added the sticks around phrase for El Nino's end. Others may disagree, but I've got to score the end of El Nino forecast as a miss. That's 1 out of 3. Let's add up the score. You got 1 out of 5 right, for an accuracy of perhaps 20%. Not very good. Looks like random chance so far. That's your opinion, but again, doesn't make you right. My ENSO forecast was a long-range one, a climate forecast and ENSO occurred. I don't know anything about your 'random scoring' methodology since there's nothing random about my forecasts. So, if you call that 'not very good' so be it but that's your opinion and it doesn't count for much at all. If you can do better, be my guest. |
|
|
|
Post by commonsense on Sept 6, 2011 19:33:48 GMT
You clearly spend a great deal of time researching and pouring over the data but that does not make your "forecasts" statistically valid. There are hundreds of scholars spending thousands of hours trying to solve the "bible code". However, that does not make them master forecasters or even prove the existence of a code hidden within the pages of the bible. Excellent analogy! I agree that it is likely that Astromet spends much time and effort on his forecasts, and also that he sincerely believes in himself. But, as you say, effort and belief don't translate into fact. |
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Sept 6, 2011 19:46:24 GMT
You clearly spend a great deal of time researching and pouring over the data but that does not make your "forecasts" statistically valid. There are hundreds of scholars spending thousands of hours trying to solve the "bible code". However, that does not make them master forecasters or even prove the existence of a code hidden within the pages of the bible. Excellent analogy! I agree that it is likely that Astromet spends much time and effort on his forecasts, and also that he sincerely believes in himself. But, as you say, effort and belief don't translate into fact.  ?. You make many assumptions that have nothing to do with the truths of these climate and forecasting matters. What's with this 'thing' you have me? I mean, what do you know what I believe or what effort I put into my work? You have no clue whatsoever but talk as if you do. Also, there is nothing 'random' about the Earth's climate and weather - all is ordered and regulated by the laws of physics, the Sun and planetary motion. These laws do not require your belief to operate. They never did and never will. You would be better off actually observing the Earth's climate and weather as it is, rather than what you want to 'believe' in your random little world. You have a lot to learn. |
|
?. You make many assumptions that have nothing to do with the truths of these climate and forecasting matters. What's with this 'thing' you have me? I mean, what do you know what I believe or what effort I put into my work? You have no clue whatsoever but talk as if you do.