*EL NINO/LA NINA FORECAST 2010-2011*

[AstroMet]

Sept 6, 2011 22:53:06 GMT glennkoks said:

Astromet, the last el nine ended in may 2010. This from Wiki.

According to NOAA, El Niño conditions were in place in the equatorial Pacific Ocean starting June 2009, peaking in January–February. Positive SST anomalies (El Niño) lasted until May 2010. Since then, SST anomalies have been negative (La Niña) and expected to stay negative for the next northern winter.[46]
The 2010-2011 La Niña was one of the strongest ever observed. The effect on Eastern Australia was devastating.[47].

Your original post did not say ENSO it said and I quote "I've forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year." The Nino was over by May and the strongest La Nina in years ensued.

Perhaps not a "total bust" but five out of seven months is less stellar.

Would you like to continue the review of your predictions?

Once again the key word in your original quote is "El Nino" which was over by may.

Glenn, one of the problems you are having is that you do not seem to understand how ENSO, that is El Nino and La Nina operate, so I strongly doubt that you are able to do any 'review' of my 'predictions.'

What you need to do first is to go back on what happened - in the real world - from ENSO, that is both El Nino and then La Nina, both which I forecasted and stop playing stupid games. Why don't you try that?

You obviously are out of touch with both ENSO events - that is, once again, El Nino and La Nina, which caused massive damage from flooding, winds, snowfall and now drought for a wide variety of nations on Earth.

Transitions of climate events do not switch on and off like a light, they transition. What you did not notice in the world's weather of mid-2010 was that El Nino was still in play as La Nina was building.

This is a major misunderstanding some of you people have about how the Earth's climate works, particularly ENSO, which is why you pine on and on splitting hairs and nickel-and-diming to death without noticing the clear nuances of how the climate truly works and how it is forced from space.

This is a major problem with people such as you to understand. It is not a wonder why you fail to notice the climate events that have taken place (and continue to) because you are disconnected from the Earth, treating the Earth as if it were flat; with climate events turning themselves off and on in a blink.

You won't even see how things transition and it is there that many of the essentials to forecasting are to be found.

The oceans transition with atmospheric changes as you can see here in this rendition ->

www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/video/2011/2010-began-with-el-nino-ended-with-la-nina

The video depicts daily sea-surface temperature anomalies in 2010. The regions that were warmer than long-term average temperatures (1980-2010) are in red, and regions that are cooler than average are in blue. The areas where temperatures were near average are in white.

You will note in the climate video how the transition of El Nino to La Nina gradually switched hemispheres, with colder temperatures to the equator and warmer further north - you can observe the changes by color, blue for cold, red for warm in the climate video.

NOAA reported that, "When 2010 began, temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific were warmer than average (red), an indication that El Niño, the warm phase of a naturally occurring climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), was underway."

El Niño and La Niña events cycle with recurrent warmings and coolings of the ocean surface in the central and eastern Pacific known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

El Niño refers to the warmer phase of the oscillation and La Niña refers to the cooler phase. These phases affect weather patterns globally and changes precipitation and drought impacts.

The droughts were are seeing is a result of ENSO. These transitions are part and parcel of ENSO, but La Nina does not always follow El Nino, but as forecasted, it did.

This is part of the larger picture of astronomic forcing. We will see increasing La Ninas and decreasing El Nino over this decade in advance of the official start of global cooling, which I have forecasted to begin in 2017.

The new global climate regime to global cooling is very important to prepare for because it brings to an end 36-years of solar-forced global cooling. I also know when the next ENSO will take place as I did with this last recent ENSO.

How we all transition into the next global climate regime of global cooling will be all important. So, as some of you bicker and nickel-and-dime, I would remind all of you that global cooling is on the way and will make global warming look pale in comparison.

Storms are more powerful under global cooling. We have about six years to the official start, so there's not too much time left to do the great amount of work needed to get structures prepared.

Food & energy sources will become paramount in the 2020s, 2030s and 2040s. What is most critical is preparation of infrastructure and helping our good friends - the farmers - who feed the world. They will need more resources and longer-range weather forecasts to be able to feed the planet.

[glennkoks]

Astromet, No one is playing games I know exactly what ENSO is and how it operates. You are the one who put forth a very vague so called "forecast" for an entire Continent and claim to be a "pro" and a "master forecaster" with thousands of "clients".

Your "forecasts" when narrowed to specific events or geographic locations are consistently wrong. I challenged you to go paragraph by paragraph over your forecasts and as predicted by others on this site your replies have been the same old, same old defensive and rude.

I don't claim to be a Pro or a "Master Forecaster" but you don't have to be Nostradamus to predict that North America will have droughts, floods, record cold and record heat and then find examples of them to validate your vague forecasts.

I have no doubt that the natural cycles of our sun has an effect on our climate, and yes there are celestial effects like Milankovitch Cycles that also play a role. However, I do doubt your ability to predict with any accuracy the weather on this earth. The proof is in the pudding.

Once again would you like to review your original "forecast" on a paragraph by paragraph basis to validate your claims or come back with another long winded rant? In poker the term is put up or shut up.

[glennkoks]

Lets try another paragraph:


For example, I see 2010 seasonally this way for North America - these are general guidelines from my astronomical calculations on our nation's long-range climate next year -

"*Winter 2010 - early - active, done by March 2010."

I live in Texas, winter was not early, nor active but I'm sure it was somewhere across our nation. Did you spend tons of time with your astrolabe coming up with this detailed and highly informative premonition?

[commonsense]

A direct quote from your forecast, as pasted by Glennkoks:

"From my long-range astronomical calculations for North America, I've forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year. This is caused mainly by the activity of the Sun, which will undergo an historic solar maximum that will bring to an end the 36-year global warming phase that began in the year 1980 while opening a new global cooling phase that will get underway by the year 2017."

Your response:

I forecasted the 2009-2011 ENSO - that's El Nino to be followed by La Nina - before it occurred. How is that the biggest bust?

Please read the direct quote again. You didn't mention ENSO at all. You didn't mention 2009 either. No, we're talking solely about El Nino and SC24 and 2010-2011. My take is that you are wriggling out by saying that you meant that a moderate El Nino's effects will be magnified by an historic solar maximum, and those effects, delayed as effects are, will be very strong in 2010-2011. Is that a correct amended reading of your forecast? Frankly, if this is so, shouldn't you have said it yourself? Instead of insulting Glenn with declarations that there are no switches, you should have explained that your original post was unclear and you meant El Nino's effects, not El Nino itself.

Assuming so, we still have problems. There's that huge La Nina to contend with. Wouldn't it interfere with El Nino's effects? Second, your statement of cause, an historic SC24 maximum, didn't happen in 2010-2011, so any purported skill in weather forecasting must be pure luck - if the cause didn't happen, the results can't be because of the cause.

I suppose you could wriggle even further by saying SC24 isn't over, and even its beginning was "special" enough to cause very strong El Nino effects in the midst of a huge La Nina. That strains credulity (and might not be what you're saying - feel free to actually state what you meant by "a very strong El Nino in 2010-2011") That brings us back to SC24. From:
solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
"The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 70 in May of 2013. We are currently over two and a half years into Cycle 24."
and
"Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs"

Thus, we're far enough along to fairly reliably predict a sunspot maximum of 70, while it takes a score of over 200 to be an historic maximum. Are you stating that SC24's maximum will still climb over 200?

[AstroMet]

Sept 7, 2011 2:33:29 GMT glennkoks said:

Astromet, No one is playing games I know exactly what ENSO is and how it operates. You are the one who put forth a very vague so called "forecast" for an entire Continent and claim to be a "pro" and a "master forecaster" with thousands of "clients".

Your "forecasts" when narrowed to specific events or geographic locations are consistently wrong. I challenged you to go paragraph by paragraph over your forecasts and as predicted by others on this site your replies have been the same old, same old defensive and rude.

I don't claim to be a Pro or a "Master Forecaster" but you don't have to be Nostradamus to predict that North America will have droughts, floods, record cold and record heat and then find examples of them to validate your vague forecasts.

I have no doubt that the natural cycles of our sun has an effect on our climate, and yes there are celestial effects like Milankovitch Cycles that also play a role. However, I do doubt your ability to predict with any accuracy the weather on this earth. The proof is in the pudding.

Once again would you like to review your original "forecast" on a paragraph by paragraph basis to validate your claims or come back with another long winded rant? In poker the term is put up or shut up.

In poker Glenn, you have to be a player to sit at the forecasting table, and I haven't seen you forecast next month's weather, much less a major climate event like ENSO. I put my ENSO cards on the 'poker' table years ago.

Where did you put up yours? I think you're the one who needs to "shut up."

Word.

[AstroMet]

Sept 7, 2011 4:10:46 GMT commonsense said:

A direct quote from your forecast, as pasted by Glennkoks:

"From my long-range astronomical calculations for North America, I've forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year. This is caused mainly by the activity of the Sun, which will undergo an historic solar maximum that will bring to an end the 36-year global warming phase that began in the year 1980 while opening a new global cooling phase that will get underway by the year 2017."

Your response:

I forecasted the 2009-2011 ENSO - that's El Nino to be followed by La Nina - before it occurred. How is that the biggest bust?

Please read the direct quote again. You didn't mention ENSO at all. You didn't mention 2009 either. No, we're talking solely about El Nino and SC24 and 2010-2011. My take is that you are wriggling out by saying that you meant that a moderate El Nino's effects will be magnified by an historic solar maximum, and those effects, delayed as effects are, will be very strong in 2010-2011. Is that a correct amended reading of your forecast? Frankly, if this is so, shouldn't you have said it yourself? Instead of insulting Glenn with declarations that there are no switches, you should have explained that your original post was unclear and you meant El Nino's effects, not El Nino itself.

Assuming so, we still have problems. There's that huge La Nina to contend with. Wouldn't it interfere with El Nino's effects? Second, your statement of cause, an historic SC24 maximum, didn't happen in 2010-2011, so any purported skill in weather forecasting must be pure luck - if the cause didn't happen, the results can't be because of the cause.

I suppose you could wriggle even further by saying SC24 isn't over, and even its beginning was "special" enough to cause very strong El Nino effects in the midst of a huge La Nina. That strains credulity (and might not be what you're saying - feel free to actually state what you meant by "a very strong El Nino in 2010-2011") That brings us back to SC24. From:
solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
"The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 70 in May of 2013. We are currently over two and a half years into Cycle 24."
and
"Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs"

Thus, we're far enough along to fairly reliably predict a sunspot maximum of 70, while it takes a score of over 200 to be an historic maximum. Are you stating that SC24's maximum will still climb over 200?

I've got nothing to say to that bro. ENSO is nearly history and you've very very late to the station. That train left the station before you even noticed and you're just too silly for me to even grace you with a response to whatever you call that 'random' logic of yours.

Good night and good luck. I'm way way ahead of you.

[glennkoks]

Astromet, I am not the one claiming to be a "pro" or a "master forecaster". I make no preposterous predictions that I can't back up. The fact that I am not a "player" at the table does not add validity to your "forecasts".

Next paragraph in our rather one sided debate:

"*Summer 2010 - early, hotter than normal, but a short summer. It seems to zip right by, coming early in May 2010 like it did - so that after the first 10 days of August, one should be able to detect a "late September-like chill" in the air in the August nights. By mid-September, for certain, brisk autumn like days, with cooler than average temperatures felt across a third of the country. It appears that summer isn't going to stick around for long, and there are wetter months ahead, more than usual for the strange fall season of 2010 just ahead."

Where was it supposed to be hotter than normal? Miami or Seattle? Did summer zip right buy in Phoenix Arizona or Bangor Maine? Where was there a detectable late summer like chill? I sure did not feel one down here in Texas.

Paragraph after paragraph of completely worthless drivel. Your forecasts have no more predictive value than the morning horoscope in the town paper.

The sad part about it is I had no intention of hurting your feelings by being brutally honest. I even implored you in my initial post to remain civil but knowing your history of attacking your skeptics I knew the outcome of challenging your forecasts. I get no satisfaction or in know way feel better by pointing out your errors.

For what it is worth I suspect that there may be some predictive value in 11 and 36 year solar cycles. Their effect on our climate seems to have merit and there may even be a weak link in solar cycles and volcanic activity. The AMO, PDO, Arctic and other well documented oscillations may all be linked to one degree or another. The error in your methodology comes in trying to specifically tie these poorly understood natural variations into your seasonal forecasts.

[glennkoks]

Astromet, I will give credit where credit is due with your forecast of flooding in 2010 along the Mississippi River. It was specific and accurate.

I also happen to agree with your forecast of an upcoming multi-decadal dip near the end of this decade in global temps. The PDO seems to have flipped back to a colder cycle. If history is correct the AMO would be due to change near the end of the decade as well. In combination with many have called a new grand solar minimum their appears to be a favorable correlation towards colder temps.

I would like to take this time to thank you for your posts which are not without merit and implore you to change the dialog on these boards from a very negative tone to a more positive one. All I ask is you back up your forecasts with solid reasoning and polite discourse.

[commonsense]

Sept 7, 2011 4:33:24 GMT AstroMet said:

I've got nothing to say to that bro. ENSO is nearly history and you've very very late to the station. That train left the station before you even noticed and you're just too silly for me to even grace you with a response to whatever you call that 'random' logic of yours.

Good night and good luck. I'm way way ahead of you.

I note that you won't support or revise your SC24 "historic maximum" prediction.

Not a single post suggesting that anybody believes you have forecasting skill. (Anybody? If you have an inkling that Astromet might have any forecasting skill at all, please speak up. He needs the support.)

And here I was looking forward to discussing the Japanese earthquake.

[steve]

Anyone who understands forecasting knows that their forecast has to have meaning to their customers.

Different customers, though, have different requirements. An ice cream seller is not interested in a seasonal and decadal forecasts, but builders and owners of big infrastructure and reinsurance companies are.

Perhaps sigurdur would say what interests him. Would he change his planting patterns based on a probabilistic forecast for late season (which is essentially the closest description of astromet's broad approach to continental forecasts), or is he more interested in planning his next week (when to water, when to harvest etc.).

It's not clear to me that astromet has an appreciation of these differing requirements, so he and his clients (if any) may only be interested in it as a hobby and due to a wish to believe in solar/astrophysical forcings as the only thing of interest. That would be a good explanation for a lack of interest in forecast validation - when my gambler friend tells me about his winnings he hates me asking him about his losses because he knows it undermines a reason for his hobby.

[glennkoks]

Steve, I can't think of any occupations that would be reliant on a prediction as vague as "*Summer 2010 - early, hotter than normal, but a short summer." It certainly would not have an impact on farmers, fisherman, insurance companies or offshore drilling.

[AstroMet]

Sept 7, 2011 5:25:40 GMT glennkoks said:

Astromet, I will give credit where credit is due with your forecast of flooding in 2010 along the Mississippi River. It was specific and accurate.

I also happen to agree with your forecast of an upcoming multi-decadal dip near the end of this decade in global temps. The PDO seems to have flipped back to a colder cycle. If history is correct the AMO would be due to change near the end of the decade as well. In combination with many have called a new grand solar minimum their appears to be a favorable correlation towards colder temps.

I would like to take this time to thank you for your posts which are not without merit and implore you to change the dialog on these boards from a very negative tone to a more positive one. All I ask is you back up your forecasts with solid reasoning and polite discourse.

I do not ever have a problem discussing my long-range forecasts and I always back my thoughts on the climate/weather and astronomic forecasting with polite discourse and solid reasoning as long as the fella on the other end can do the same. Some cannot, and are without 'merit' but choose to sound off negative. So, as I've said before, mind your manners. I'm not a babysitter.

[AstroMet]

Sept 7, 2011 12:26:56 GMT steve said:

Anyone who understands forecasting knows that their forecast has to have meaning to their customers.

Different customers, though, have different requirements. An ice cream seller is not interested in a seasonal and decadal forecasts, but builders and owners of big infrastructure and reinsurance companies are.

Perhaps sigurdur would say what interests him. Would he change his planting patterns based on a probabilistic forecast for late season (which is essentially the closest description of astromet's broad approach to continental forecasts), or is he more interested in planning his next week (when to water, when to harvest etc.).

It's not clear to me that astromet has an appreciation of these differing requirements, so he and his clients (if any) may only be interested in it as a hobby and due to a wish to believe in solar/astrophysical forcings as the only thing of interest. That would be a good explanation for a lack of interest in forecast validation - when my gambler friend tells me about his winnings he hates me asking him about his losses because he knows it undermines a reason for his hobby.

Dream on Steve.

[AstroMet]

Sept 7, 2011 5:57:53 GMT commonsense said:

Sept 7, 2011 4:33:24 GMT AstroMet said:

I've got nothing to say to that bro. ENSO is nearly history and you've very very late to the station. That train left the station before you even noticed and you're just too silly for me to even grace you with a response to whatever you call that 'random' logic of yours.

Good night and good luck. I'm way way ahead of you.

I note that you won't support or revise your SC24 "historic maximum" prediction.

Not a single post suggesting that anybody believes you have forecasting skill. (Anybody? If you have an inkling that Astromet might have any forecasting skill at all, please speak up. He needs the support.)

And here I was looking forward to discussing the Japanese earthquake.

It does not surprise me that at age 63 you act as your generation does, always thinking you are better than others, and putting down those who can do what you cannot.

This is one of the reasons for the sad state of climate science. That day that we are rid of you people will be a great day. You've done much damage with your ideological AGW crap. But those days are now numbered.

[AstroMet]

Sept 7, 2011 12:50:57 GMT glennkoks said:

Steve, I can't think of any occupations that would be reliant on a prediction as vague as "*Summer 2010 - early, hotter than normal, but a short summer." It certainly would not have an impact on farmers, fisherman, insurance companies or offshore drilling.

And that is where you are wrong - again Glenn. If you are to comment on long-range climate/weather forecasts then you are going to have to learn before sounding off with uninformed opinions and silly comments like the one from you above.

That is exactly what farmers, fishermen and companies want to know so that they can advance plan. My private long-range forecasts for paying clients are much more detailed, but they are still produced to cover as much calendar space as possible which allows for more time to prepare.

The Sun controls the constitution of the atmosphere.

Planets regulate organic changes in weather -

(a) By changing impressions when they are at certain point in their eccentric orbits, or by varying declinations north or south of the earth's equator, thereby affecting both electrical and chemical changes in the Earth's atmosphere;

(b - When in major stations, that is, either on the celestial equator, in maximum declination, in perigee (closest to Earth), in perihelion (closest to the Sun), or when apparently stationary in geocentric longitude;

(c - By angular relationship with the Sun or between each other in longitude, and

(d - By radical occupancy or eastward transit over any given terrestrial meridian or in angular relation to that meridian. These factors may be interpreted from key charts calculated for the exact times the sun crosses the equinoctial or solstice points; secondary charts prepared for the times of the New and Full Moons provide a more exact timing reference.

The Moon is the functional element; it reflects Barometric and Atmospheric tidal changes that have already been indicated by solar and/or planetary phenomena.

Seasonal anomalies of weather are determined as much by celestial bodies in declination (north or south of the celestial equator) as by longitude.

If you want to learn, then never assume, or think that you actually know what it is that you are talking about. What do you know about the methodology of astrological climate/weather forecasting to sound off as you do?