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Post by AstroMet on Sept 7, 2011 19:42:05 GMT
I do not ever have a problem discussing my long-range forecasts and I always back my thoughts on the climate/weather and astronomic forecasting with polite discourse and solid reasoning I've never seen an example of that. Several posters here have pasted specific forecasts of yours and attempted to engage you in polite discussion about those specific forecasts. You have responded with bile and evasion, mostly (it seems) because the posters have all been of the opinion that your forecasts were wrong. I'll give you another chance: I politely note that you forecast an historic maximum for solar cycle 24. Could you please explain what you mean by "historic maximum" and also tell us if your forecast has changed. Please give astrometric reasons why your forecast has changed, if it has. Also give astrometric reasons for your original forecast. Thank you. Again: I will not babysit you common sense. You play games on threads, like on the CERN thread, where you are just dense. I'm already scrolling past your posts because I know what to expect from you. I gave astronomic reasons and even moved up two tutorials since you do not know how to use the SC24 search engine. But I doubt you've read them, as I doubt you actually read Spenser's paper, because you'd rather mouth off and behave like you are able to 'judge' rather than read, learn and discuss to discover and explore. You do not really want to discuss because you pass yourself off as knowledgeable, but to this day you still cannot properly define ENSO though it has been explained to you more than several times. You are hardly in an position to judge anything professionals do, much less opine on them. So, I've had about enough of you and the games you play. Waste your 'retirement' as you please, however don't waste our time here, as we work for a living. Thanks. |
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Post by commonsense on Sept 7, 2011 19:46:23 GMT
I do not ever have a problem discussing my long-range forecasts and I always back my thoughts on the climate/weather and astronomic forecasting with polite discourse and solid reasoning as long as the fella on the other end can do the same. Sounds grand. Let's try that: I politely note that you forecast an historic maximum for solar cycle 24. You also disagree with the solar scientific community about the date of the coming maximum by a large margin. Could you please explain what you mean by "historic maximum" and also tell us if your forecast has changed, either for date or magnitude? Please give astrometric reasons why your forecast has changed, if it has. Also give astrometric reasons for your original forecast. Thank you. |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 7, 2011 19:47:18 GMT
I do not ever have a problem discussing my long-range forecasts and I always back my thoughts on the climate/weather and astronomic forecasting with polite discourse and solid reasoning as long as the fella on the other end can do the same. Sounds grand. Let's try that: I politely note that you forecast an historic maximum for solar cycle 24. You also disagree with the solar scientific community about the date of the coming maximum by a large margin. Could you please explain what you mean by "historic maximum" and also tell us if your forecast has changed, either for date or magnitude? Please give astrometric reasons why your forecast has changed, if it has. Also give astrometric reasons for your original forecast. Thank you. See my tutorials. Thanks. |
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 7, 2011 20:29:46 GMT
Astromet, Once again I don't want to be rude but your "forecasts" are way to vague to merit someone paying for them. If people actually pay you for your product more power to you. Personally I see no predictive value above chance. Good luck with your endeavors.
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 7, 2011 20:40:22 GMT
"If you want to learn, then never assume, or think that you actually know what it is that you are talking about. What do you know about the methodology of astrological climate/weather forecasting to sound off as you do?"
Astromet, I don't need a degree in meteorology to criticize the accuracy of the local weather man. Nor do I need a degree in economics to find out that my stock brokers advice sucks.
The proof is in the pudding. I have read nothing in your forecasts that would lead me to believe you have any skill above chance at predicting the weather based on astrological events. Once again I am not saying that there is no correlation with celestial events and our weather, only that your ability to apply them to seasonal forecasts is lacking.
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 7, 2011 21:50:51 GMT
"If you want to learn, then never assume, or think that you actually know what it is that you are talking about. What do you know about the methodology of astrological climate/weather forecasting to sound off as you do?" Astromet, I don't need a degree in meteorology to criticize the accuracy of the local weather man. Nor do I need a degree in economics to find out that my stock brokers advice sucks. The proof is in the pudding. I have read nothing in your forecasts that would lead me to believe you have any skill above chance at predicting the weather based on astrological events. Once again I am not saying that there is no correlation with celestial events and our weather, only that your ability to apply them to seasonal forecasts is lacking. Then that's your problem right there Glenn. Repeating your same opinion over and over doesn't make it true. I've already shown you several times how you have been plain wrong about the events of El Nino and La Nina - in the real world. Ignoring those climate and weather events simply based on your biases isn't wise at all. But you've stated your 'opinion' Glenn and it has been duly noted. Can we go now? |
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 7, 2011 23:41:58 GMT
"Then that's your problem right there Glenn. Repeating your same opinion over and over doesn't make it true. I've already shown you several times how you have been plain wrong about the events of El Nino and La Nina - in the real world."
Nor does putting out a forecast based on supposed celestial events.
We will agree to disagree on the accuracy of your forecasts. Good luck.
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 8, 2011 1:27:23 GMT
"Then that's your problem right there Glenn. Repeating your same opinion over and over doesn't make it true. I've already shown you several times how you have been plain wrong about the events of El Nino and La Nina - in the real world." Nor does putting out a forecast based on supposed celestial events. We will agree to disagree on the accuracy of your forecasts. Good luck. You say 'supposed celestial events.' Just where do you think the Earth lives, in a box? You do realize that the Earth is a planet and transits in space, right? You do realize that our seasons are regulated by the motion of the Earth relative to the Sun, right? Or is the Earth just sitting still, with no motion at all, and of course, the Sun, well, that's nothing since it is celestial? Yeah, that's the ticket. Our weather comes from nowhere since the Earth is flat, right? You do realize that without the motion of the planets that there would be no such thing as Time, right? Why you don't even celebrate a birthday because to do so would be admitting celestial facts such as the Sun returning to the area of the skies when you were born. Or have you surpassed Plato's, Brahe's, Kepler's, and Newton's contention of these and other 'supposed celestial facts? Yeah, that wacky guy Isaac Newton with his celestial influences -> webapp1.dlib.indiana.edu/newton/mss/norm/ALCH00042The 'supposed celestial' events do not require your believe to operate as they always have Glenn. The Sun, the Moon and the planets (including the Earth) do not require your 'belief' one bit. Once you get that, and get off the hubris raft, then you might actually learn something, but that depends on you because no one is going to do that for you. Disagree all you want, but open your eyes and get out of the Stone Age. Good luck with all that Glenn. |
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Post by thermostat on Sept 8, 2011 2:54:55 GMT
Checking in it looks like the El Nino thread has really jumped the shark.
Just a comment, too bad. There used to be some interesting points of view posted here,
Whatever, I'm easy.
(Maybe somebody could start a new ENSO thread and we could all continue the relevant discussion, just btw.)
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 8, 2011 3:50:47 GMT
Checking in it looks like the El Nino thread has really jumped the shark. Just a comment, too bad. There used to be some interesting points of view posted here, Whatever, I'm easy. (Maybe somebody could start a new ENSO thread and we could all continue the relevant discussion, just btw.) There's plenty of interest in ENSO, as long as ideology is kept out of the discussion since ideologues are not interested in Science. |
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Post by thermostat on Sept 8, 2011 4:05:20 GMT
Checking in it looks like the El Nino thread has really jumped the shark. Just a comment, too bad. There used to be some interesting points of view posted here, Whatever, I'm easy. (Maybe somebody could start a new ENSO thread and we could all continue the relevant discussion, just btw.) There's plenty of interest in ENSO, as long as ideology is kept out of the discussion since ideologues are not interested in Science. Well said Astromet. Well said. |
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 8, 2011 4:37:55 GMT
Astromet, I have no doubt that celestial events play a large role in our climate. What I do have a problem with is your ability based on your forecasts to predict our weather. I also have my doubts about your so called "clients" paying for such highly detailed info as "*Winter 2010 - early - active, done by March 2010." Im sure such detailed forecasting probably saved billions to farmers in crop losses.
And do you have any formal training in the budding science of astrometeorology or did you get your degree from Gryffindor at Hogwarts?
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 8, 2011 5:23:27 GMT
Astromet, I have no doubt that celestial events play a large role in our climate. What I do have a problem with is your ability based on your forecasts to predict our weather. I also have my doubts about your so called "clients" paying for such highly detailed info as "*Winter 2010 - early - active, done by March 2010." Im sure such detailed forecasting probably saved billions to farmers in crop losses. And do you have any formal training in the budding science of astrometeorology or did you get your degree from Gryffindor at Hogwarts? Appeals based on ignorance, insults and emotion is the realm of an infant Glenn. If you are to debate a subject such as astronomic forecasting then have the intelligence to gain knowledge about the subject before you choose to debate with an expert in the field. Harry Potter is for children. Please grow up. |
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Post by billlee49 on Sept 8, 2011 5:28:07 GMT
Does anyone care to comment on or perhaps move toward a discussion about current Pacific equatorial sea temperature trends and how that might impact the coming winter? Just a thought, since that's supposed to be the topic for this thread. :-\
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 8, 2011 5:41:55 GMT
Does anyone care to comment on or perhaps move toward a discussion about current Pacific equatorial sea temperature trends and how that might impact the coming winter? Just a thought, since that's supposed to be the topic for this thread. :-\ Yes, it is, and thanks for getting back to forecasting after having to respond to immaturity and ignorance. There already have been several months of near-average ocean temperatures in the Pacific. Some climatologists and meteorologists suggest La Niña will return this winter, but according to my calculations we will not see the records that were set in last winter's snowfall. I forecast near neutral conditions for this upcoming autumn season. Historically, La Niña often fails to come back for a second round after the strong event of this past winter and spring. Some climate centers will confuse the signals of La Niña in their climate models with calls for a return, but that's not what I've forecasted. We are more or less past La Niña and will see a slightly wetter, but average autumn season with a less snowy winter for North America along with near-average temperatures and the onset an early and warmer spring season ahead in 2012. |
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