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Post by glennkoks on Sept 8, 2011 5:50:07 GMT
Astromet, all I want to debate is the validity (or lack there of) of your forecasts. If your going to be arrogant enough to call yourself an "expert", "master forecaster", "Pro" and post your "forecasts" on the internet have the fortitude to stand by them.
What you don't seem to understand is I do not dismiss astronomic forecasting. However I do dismiss your abilities as a forecaster.
Once again the proof is in the pudding.
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 8, 2011 18:05:55 GMT
Astromet, all I want to debate is the validity (or lack there of) of your forecasts. If your going to be arrogant enough to call yourself an "expert", "master forecaster", "Pro" and post your "forecasts" on the internet have the fortitude to stand by them. What you don't seem to understand is I do not dismiss astronomic forecasting. However I do dismiss your abilities as a forecaster. Once again the proof is in the pudding. First you say that "Nor does putting out a forecast based on supposed celestial events," then you say "I do not dismiss astronomic forecasting." How is that possible? Where do celestial events occur? Is that not astronomic? I am an expert astronomic forecaster. I earned that with plenty of years of hard work. I could care less what you 'think,' Glenn, no asked you and you are surely in no position whatsoever to dismiss anyone's abilities as a forecaster, much less mine. That is your bias, hubris and arrogance. You're a so-called 'new member' here with 17 posts. I see right through you 'Glenn.' Go waste time elsewhere and leave the forecasting to the experts. |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 8, 2011 18:07:01 GMT
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Post by commonsense on Sept 8, 2011 20:43:02 GMT
Astromet, all I want to debate is the validity (or lack there of) of your forecasts. If your going to be arrogant enough to call yourself an "expert", "master forecaster", "Pro" and post your "forecasts" on the internet have the fortitude to stand by them. What you don't seem to understand is I do not dismiss astronomic forecasting. However I do dismiss your abilities as a forecaster. Once again the proof is in the pudding. First you say that "Nor does putting out a forecast based on supposed celestial events," then you say "I do not dismiss astronomic forecasting." How is that possible? Where do celestial events occur? Is that not astronomic? I am an expert astronomic forecaster. I earned that with plenty of years of hard work. I could care less what you 'think,' Glenn, no asked you and you are surely in no position whatsoever to dismiss anyone's abilities as a forecaster, much less mine. That is your bias, hubris and arrogance. You're a so-called 'new member' here with 17 posts. I see right through you 'Glenn.' Go waste time elsewhere and leave the forecasting to the experts. Glenn, me, and everyone else understands that celestial events affect the weather and climate. The seasons are caused by the interaction of the orbit of the Earth around the sun with the tilt of the Earth's axis. Ice ages most likely were largely caused by changes in the Earth's orbit. Earth tides and atmospheric tides have some effect on weather, volcanoes, and earthquakes. The above facts do not lend support to your craft, which is the forecasting of solar cycles and weather events both large and small. For example, Earth tides SLIGHTLY influence micro-earthquake events. Thus, they may SLIGHTLY affect the probability of large earthquakes. To make the leap to "I can predict earthquakes" is logic of the Kindergarten variety. It just doesn't follow. Therefore, your claims of extraordinary ability and/or skill and/or expertness, can't be taken just on faith. Your claims that mere humans can't determine whether your forecasts come true or not - well, that's beyond bogus. You've made many forecasts. Some have succeeded. Glenn pointed out the 2010 Mississippi floods, for example. Most have failed miserably. Your prediction that 2010-2011 would be a very strong El Nino year, your prediction that March 2011 would be bitterly cold in North America, and your prediction that SC24 would be an historic maximum, for example. The ratio of failed to successful forecasts points strongly to the conclusion that you're about as good as random chance. How do you expect people to come around to astrometic forecasting, if you refuse to discuss your failures? I was wrong because ________ is a powerful tool for convincing people that you're not just full of _____. Repeated claims of being "expert" and so powerful and skilled that others can't even question you are tools of the skill-free and charlatans. I suggest you stop using such tools as they greatly diminish the possibility of anybody taking you seriously. Of course, if you are a charlatan, carry on! I note that not a single poster has acknowledged that you might have any skill at forecasting at all. Please folks, if anybody thinks Astromet has any skill at all at forecasting, take a moment and show him your support. |
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Post by commonsense on Sept 8, 2011 20:50:50 GMT
What you don't seem to understand is I do not dismiss astronomic forecasting. However I do dismiss your abilities as a forecaster. I agree that tidal forces and such things do have effects, but their affect on probabilities is likely so small that actual forecasting is probably impossible. "There will be a 0.1% larger chance than normal for an earthquake somewhere on the planet" does not constitute forecasting in my mind. Your comment that you specifically reject Astromet's purported skill is well taken. He obviously has no access to super-computers or giant telescopes. He doesn't have a massive staff to do the work. It's most likely just Astromet (in his parents' basement?) using a PC and the vague data one gets off the internet. |
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Post by commonsense on Sept 8, 2011 21:05:03 GMT
Sounds grand. Let's try that: I politely note that you forecast an historic maximum for solar cycle 24. You also disagree with the solar scientific community about the date of the coming maximum by a large margin. Could you please explain what you mean by "historic maximum" and also tell us if your forecast has changed, either for date or magnitude? Please give astrometric reasons why your forecast has changed, if it has. Also give astrometric reasons for your original forecast. Thank you. See my tutorials. Thanks. I did. I didn't see anything in it to indicate that forecasting solar cycles is possible using astrometric techniques. My contention stands: Theodore White was completely wrong in his forecast of an historic maximum for solar cycle 24. Since he can give no explanation as to why he forecast an historic maximum and his tutorial gives no clues either, it is likely that he merely guessed, and no "calculations" were done at all. |
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Sept 8, 2011 21:44:21 GMT
It's BAAAAAAAAAAACK!!
Now Astromet can finally admit he was wrong.
Contact: Susan Buchanan FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
301-713-0622, ext. 121 September 8, 2011
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: La Niña is back
La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter. Today, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory.
NOAA will issue its official winter outlook in mid-October, but La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.
“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states.”
Climate forecasts from NOAA’s National Weather Service give American communities advance notice of what to expect in the coming months so they can prepare for potential impacts. This service is helping the country to become a Weather Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise.
Seasonal hurricane forecasters factored the potential return of La Niña into NOAA’s updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, issued in August, which called for an active hurricane season. With the development of tropical storm Nate this week, the number of tropical cyclones entered the predicted range of 14-19 named storms.
The strong 2010-11 La Niña contributed to record winter snowfall, spring flooding and drought across the United States, as well as other extreme weather events throughout the world, such as heavy rain in Australia and an extremely dry equatorial eastern Africa.
La Niña is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon located over the tropical Pacific Ocean and results from interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. During La Niña, cooler-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures influence global weather patterns. La Niña typically occurs every three-to-five years, and back-to-back episodes occur about 50 percent of the time. Current conditions reflect a re-development of the June 2010-May 2011 La Niña episode.
NOAA’s National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 8, 2011 21:56:32 GMT
What you don't seem to understand is I do not dismiss astronomic forecasting. However I do dismiss your abilities as a forecaster. I agree that tidal forces and such things do have effects, but their affect on probabilities is likely so small that actual forecasting is probably impossible. "There will be a 0.1% larger chance than normal for an earthquake somewhere on the planet" does not constitute forecasting in my mind. Your comment that you specifically reject Astromet's purported skill is well taken. He obviously has no access to super-computers or giant telescopes. He doesn't have a massive staff to do the work. It's most likely just Astromet (in his parents' basement?) using a PC and the vague data one gets off the internet. Yeah, that's the ticket, just troll and make things up. This is how you spend your retirement years? |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 8, 2011 22:09:14 GMT
It's BAAAAAAAAAAACK!! Now Astromet can finally admit he was wrong. Contact: Susan Buchanan FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 301-713-0622, ext. 121 September 8, 2011 NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: La Niña is back La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter. Today, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory. NOAA will issue its official winter outlook in mid-October, but La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. “This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states.” Climate forecasts from NOAA’s National Weather Service give American communities advance notice of what to expect in the coming months so they can prepare for potential impacts. This service is helping the country to become a Weather Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise. Seasonal hurricane forecasters factored the potential return of La Niña into NOAA’s updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, issued in August, which called for an active hurricane season. With the development of tropical storm Nate this week, the number of tropical cyclones entered the predicted range of 14-19 named storms. The strong 2010-11 La Niña contributed to record winter snowfall, spring flooding and drought across the United States, as well as other extreme weather events throughout the world, such as heavy rain in Australia and an extremely dry equatorial eastern Africa. La Niña is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon located over the tropical Pacific Ocean and results from interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. During La Niña, cooler-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures influence global weather patterns. La Niña typically occurs every three-to-five years, and back-to-back episodes occur about 50 percent of the time. Current conditions reflect a re-development of the June 2010-May 2011 La Niña episode. NOAA’s National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook. For one, La Nina is not back as it was and 2) NOAA often does these kinds of things, so I wouldn't place too much confidence in their climate models seeing they did not forecast ENSO in the first place, and 3) NOAA said just a few months ago from these same models that, "The Climate Prediction Center sums the forecast up this way: “Nearly all of the ENSO model forecasts weaken La Nina in the coming months. A majority of the models predict a return to ENSO-neutral conditions by May-June-July 2011, although some models persist a weaker La Nina into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011 and 4) when ENSO wanes, we see droughts spreading from a lack of rain at the latitudes affected, in this case, southern latitudes - these droughts were forecasted by me several years ago for this time. We will continue to see spreading drought conditions worsen even as ENSO weakens. ENSO does not simply turn off like a switch - this major climate event has effects as it builds, during and as they wane. I also expect to see the lingering effects of ENSO into early 2012, which I stated in my ENSO Forecast, for those who can actually read. Regarding NOAA - wait and see what their seasonal winter 2012 outlook is, and you will note that they will claim that it will be 50/50 (as they do every year.) However, if they were certain that La Nina was going to return, (they did not forecast La Nina to follow El Nino) last year, then they would obviously have made their forecast for this winter already. I will wait until they make their winter forecast before I make mine - and I will include my spring 2012 forecast with it as well. It does not include La Nina, excepting the waning climate effect of drought, but that is only partially La Nina's effect, as there are additional astronomic forcing factors in play. One of the problems with some people who are ignorant of how the climate works is that they are unable to tell the difference between climate and weather and how transitions within climate events like ENSO operate in the real world. We are past the worst of the 2009-2011 ENSO. There will be lingering effects in the climate during the transition phase, which we are already in as we enter another climate regime that will be warmer-than-average temperatures with drier than normal conditions (drought) for the next several years. Those who continue to claim that AGW is responsible for global warming think in an infantile manner without accepting that the Earth's climate can never become a greenhouse. Yet, those who claim otherwise persist - despite the fact that man-made global warming - the so-called cause of 'climate change' violates the laws of thermodynamics and physics. This is one of the prime reasons why climate science is in such a sad state because of careerists who cannot forecast as they depend on faulty climate models, along with the reactionaries who gulp it all down - the AGW kool-aid - without critically seeing that the Earth's climate is highly fluid and forced by variable astronomic forces that are always in motion - like the weather. These are the people who are wholly blind to the Earth's true climate events - in the real world - while wishcasting whatever they want to see based on nutty models fueled by the lies of man-made global warming. But, keep on observing the world's climate and see for yourselves what Mother Nature has in store for the globe next year and beyond in these last remaining years of solar-forced global warming. |
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 8, 2011 22:27:51 GMT
Here is another gem from Astromet the self proclaimed "master forecaster".
"By this time in fall 2010, the Mid-Atlantic should be well within the throes of El Nino, with above average rainfall, and warmer than average temperatures."
Sounds great!, Short sweet and more specific. Only in the real world by fall of 2010 we were in a strong "La Nina". Note the key words are "El Nino" Not ENSO.
Can you say "Bust"? Or our you going to try and wiggle and squirm your way out of it by saying I am not qualified to question such a Pro?
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 8, 2011 22:37:58 GMT
"I am an expert astronomic forecaster. I earned that with plenty of years of hard work."
I am sorry but here in the real world years of hard work do not necessarily make you an expert. Being correct would make you an expert. At this point I would just say that you have wasted years of your time and your forecasts are no better than chance.
For you the good news is your "forecasts" can only get better, from what I have read they certainly could not get much worse.
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 8, 2011 22:50:17 GMT
Here is another gem from Astromet the self proclaimed "master forecaster". "By this time in fall 2010, the Mid-Atlantic should be well within the throes of El Nino, with above average rainfall, and warmer than average temperatures." Sounds great!, Short sweet and more specific. Only in the real world by fall of 2010 we were in a strong "La Nina". Note the key words are "El Nino" Not ENSO. Can you say "Bust"? Or our you going to try and wiggle and squirm your way out of it by saying I am not qualified to question such a Pro? Yes Glenn, you are sorry. Again, what are you saying here, that the effects of El Nino were not present? See anybody wearing winter coats in the video below? September 30, 2010 -> A rain storm moved up the East Coast, bringing heavy wind and flooding in some states. Dean Reynolds reports on the latest details of the storm and how some residents are preparing for the worst.See-> www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6916355n#ixzz1XP4GztwZNovember 30, 2010 - A potent storm system will come through the Mid Atlantic the next 36 hours dropping flooding rains, gusty winds, and locally severe storms. Flood watches have been posted for many as well as wind advisories over higher terrain. Stay tuned to news and radio outlets for watches and/or warnings. High winds, heavy rains will be the biggest threat. Isolated tornadoes could also occur. You'll ignore that real world weather too, right? So here we are once again Glenn, with the problem you have: which is how you see ENSO and the fact that during transitional ENSO phases you can have both El Nino-like and La Nina-like conditions in various regions around the world. With you, it's either hot or cold, black or white, this or that - so that's how it goes for a short & sweet kind of person with a even shorter-range memory? What about in-between? What ever happened to that Glenn? How's the "proof in that pudding?" Hot____________________________________ in-between________________________________Cold The great majority of Earth's weather takes place somewhere in-between, along the diverse and wide spectrum of Earth's climate. It is the 'extremes' (the anomalies) that often make headlines, but also the transitions as well - but few notice, except astronomic forecasters that is. The Earth has a highly variable climate system - the great 'in-between.' This is what you must understand clearly about your own planet's climate - it is not in equilibrium because of this, it is always in motion. And that is what I am an expert in - variable mathematics - the core of astrological forecasting. This is why I keep saying that you are a l inear thinker for a reason. You think one or the other but never both at the same time as they transition. The Earth is not flat Glenn, it is round and its moves in an epileptic motion around the Sun. That should tell you a lot about the climate and the weather, but you're too busy dissing 'celestial influences' to even as so much notice. When will people like you ever wake up? Do you take a shower in all hot water or all cold water Glenn? You bathe in water that is in-between, neither too hot, nor too cold, right? Welcome to the Earth, of which constitutes 70-71% fluid, just like your own body. You have two hemispheres that form your whole brain. You have a left hand and a right hand and there is hot and cold - both can, and often do, work in tandem in climate and weather - and this is one of the nuances of ENSO that you fail to see, which is why you are ignorant of that which you speak. Transitions of climate events, like ENSO's El Nino/La Nina are one of my specialties in forecasting because in astronomic forcing, it is the transitions that can cause some of the worst effects, mainly because they are often unexpected. So, before you go around throwing insults and trying to take a Glenn-crap on me, why don't you first learn about ENSO's transitions and what happens i n the real world before going around mouthing off as if you are knowledgeable - because you have shown very clearly that you are not at this point. Or get off this thread, since you "dismiss me as a forecaster" and I don't know anything and am 'wrong' all the time. I never claimed to be right all the time, nor wrong all the time. All true forecasters strive to be the best they can be. I produce my public long-range forecasts as a public service to give people a head's up on my longer-term climate and weather views. I do not do that to allow some to take a crap on my forecasts. If you don't like what I forecast then simply do not read them. I am an expert forecaster in my own skill set and if you cannot respect that then be on your way, but don't expect me to sit around while you take judgmental pisses on my hard work without both your oars in the water and all 52 cards in your deck. If that is going to be the case with you, then go and find someone else to troll since I - according to you - do not know what I am talking about and all that... Thanks for the vote of confidence by the way. It's appreciated. |
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 9, 2011 2:00:28 GMT
Yes Glenn, you are sorry. Again, what are you saying here, that the effects of El Nino were not present?
My point exactly, your forecasts are so vague they can be interpreted any way you want. You clearly forecasted the mid atlantic to be in the "throes of El Nino" in the fall of 2010. The fact of the matter is the mid atlantic was in the throes of a la nina during the fall of 2010. You were 180 degress out on your forecast.
If your forecasting to be an El Nino and the exact opposite happens your forecast in incorrect. Admit it, and move on. I don't expect anyone to be correct forecasting that far out 100% of the time. Letting your pride and arrogance get the better of you and trying to say you were right when you were wrong is not the way to deal with it.
It's not that I don't like your forecasts or I would not read them. It's not a popularity contest, its about their accuracy.
Since this back and forth is counter productive and I get no pleasure from "crapping" on your forecasts I will ask a simple question. What was the biggest factor in you predicting an El nino in the fall of 2010 and what do you think went wrong or was it based on a multitude of factors? And what do you think about NOAA forecasting another la nina starting this fall?
You teach, I will listen.
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Post by commonsense on Sept 9, 2011 2:37:44 GMT
It's BAAAAAAAAAAACK!! Now Astromet can finally admit he was wrong. I seriously doubt it. I think it's far beyond his ability to man-up and admit a mistake of any kind. |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 9, 2011 3:01:43 GMT
Yes Glenn, you are sorry. Again, what are you saying here, that the effects of El Nino were not present? My point exactly, your forecasts are so vague they can be interpreted any way you want. You clearly forecasted the mid atlantic to be in the "throes of El Nino" in the fall of 2010. The fact of the matter is the mid atlantic was in the throes of a la nina during the fall of 2010. You were 180 degress out on your forecast. If your forecasting to be an El Nino and the exact opposite happens your forecast in incorrect. Admit it, and move on. I don't expect anyone to be correct forecasting that far out 100% of the time. Letting your pride and arrogance get the better of you and trying to say you were right when you were wrong is not the way to deal with it. It's not that I don't like your forecasts or I would not read them. It's not a popularity contest, its about their accuracy. Since this back and forth is counter productive and I get no pleasure from "crapping" on your forecasts I will ask a simple question. What was the biggest factor in you predicting an El nino in the fall of 2010 and what do you think went wrong or was it based on a multitude of factors? And what do you think about NOAA forecasting another la nina starting this fall? You teach, I will listen. That's better. Pride and arrogance has nothing to do with it. I am not one of those kinds of guys. That's not me. Don't confuse confidence with over-confidence, or hubris either. I don't play those games because it simply has no role in science. Now, the mid-Atlantic was not in the throes of La Nina, but on the verge. The power of ENSO gave us a double-whammy effect when La Nina followed El Nino, which is not always the case, but was in this recent ENSO. It wasn't that I was 'wrong' by La Nina, I knew it was coming, and forecasted it, but I also said that this La Nina looked 'odd' to me because of the associated astronomic configurations I was seeing. This climate regime - via ENSO - was just plain weird because it did not look like a 'normal ENSO' in the way it was behaving. There is something going down at the very crusts of the Earth's sea-floors... ominous things. What I think is also happening is that the coming global cooling climate regime is trying to establish itself a bit earlier than normal - which I hope is not happening Glenn, because the world is just not ready for it. The Sun is out of minimum and started SC24, but the recycling of its magnetic poles is strange, it's picking up, then slowing down, but doing so with strong CMEs. It's as if someone is trying to tell us something. It looks like a warning. Now that can lead into some mystical spiritual talk, but you have to admit, there's been strange shit going down worldwide and its not AGW but something else at work here. I still have the official start of global cooling, by my calculations, to start by 2017 and last a total of 36 years with these last six (6) years of global warming to go. However, the Sun's activity, along with the transits of the planets (by electromagnetic/mathematical configurations - not distance) spurred increases in volcanic activity and earthquakes. I made my Japan earthquake forecast based on this, but the California quake did not happen, and it should have, which proves that something is happening that is very weird down at the earth's crust plates and along the sea-floors - mingling with the atmosphere. We've had a strong year of quakes - worldwide, and not only in the usual places. Magnetic activity has been high since last year, remember the strange bird deaths? Also, the international science centers that do exploring and monitoring of these deep crustal plate regions have been acting odd since last year. Something is up, I know it, but they are not telling. The cooling down of the climate is a big worry. We're just not prepared - food, energy, infrastructure, transportation, etc., and these cold regimes are nasty man, storms are bigger, stronger and temperature variations wacky to say the least. ENSO raised the water tables among northern latitude nations, with records for monthly precipitation broken along the US east coast as La Nina wanes with drought spreading along southern latitudes. There are many strong, and rather strange astronomic signals relative to the Earth that are unique which show that we've got some strong climate factors still in play (not just ENSO) going forward - floods and drought - at the same time in various regions. A nightmare scenario is setting up. The weakness of the global economy is a worry too, right at the time we need to spend money to repair and strengthen infrastructures, we're cutting back. Not good news. Plus, the food concerns are there. It's been a bad couple of years for farmers, too wet at the wrong times with commodity prices higher. A perfect storm is in the making that could make the entry into a global cooling regime worse than it could have been if not for the waste of billions on AGW over the last decade. |
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