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Post by commonsense on Sept 9, 2011 3:05:01 GMT
Here is another gem from Astromet the self proclaimed "master forecaster". "By this time in fall 2010, the Mid-Atlantic should be well within the throes of El Nino, with above average rainfall, and warmer than average temperatures." Sounds great!, Short sweet and more specific. Only in the real world by fall of 2010 we were in a strong "La Nina". Note the key words are "El Nino" Not ENSO. Can you say "Bust"? Or our you going to try and wiggle and squirm your way out of it by saying I am not qualified to question such a Pro? Yes Glenn, you are sorry. Again, what are you saying here, that the effects of El Nino were not present? See anybody wearing winter coats in the video below? September 30, 2010 -> A rain storm moved up the East Coast, bringing heavy wind and flooding in some states. Dean Reynolds reports on the latest details of the storm and how some residents are preparing for the worst.See-> www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6916355n#ixzz1XP4GztwZNovember 30, 2010 - A potent storm system will come through the Mid Atlantic the next 36 hours dropping flooding rains, gusty winds, and locally severe storms. Flood watches have been posted for many as well as wind advisories over higher terrain. Stay tuned to news and radio outlets for watches and/or warnings. High winds, heavy rains will be the biggest threat. Isolated tornadoes could also occur. Theodore, I thought you were committed to being civil. Glenn was civil - his only "crime" was pointing out what appears to be an error of yours. Your response, calling him "sorry", was decidedly uncivil. You should apologize to him. Glenn was absolutely right that you'd try to wriggle out. Let's analyse your response. www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats2/enso/elnino/USpdist/son.gifLook at the precipitation map for fall El Nino effects. The mid-Atlantic coastal region is significantly drier than normal. As a matter of fact, it's the driest area in the entire country! You posted storms along the mid-Atlantic coast as "proof" that the region was in the throes of strong El Nino "effects". Yes, it seems that you don't know the effects of an El Nino on the Atlantic coast of the USA. By trying to wriggle out of your error, you dug the hole deeper. Or are you saying that NOAA is wrong about El Nino's effects on the mid-Atlantic states? |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 9, 2011 3:20:58 GMT
Yes Glenn, you are sorry. Again, what are you saying here, that the effects of El Nino were not present? See anybody wearing winter coats in the video below? September 30, 2010 -> A rain storm moved up the East Coast, bringing heavy wind and flooding in some states. Dean Reynolds reports on the latest details of the storm and how some residents are preparing for the worst.See-> www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6916355n#ixzz1XP4GztwZNovember 30, 2010 - A potent storm system will come through the Mid Atlantic the next 36 hours dropping flooding rains, gusty winds, and locally severe storms. Flood watches have been posted for many as well as wind advisories over higher terrain. Stay tuned to news and radio outlets for watches and/or warnings. High winds, heavy rains will be the biggest threat. Isolated tornadoes could also occur. Theodore, I thought you were committed to being civil. Glenn was civil - his only "crime" was pointing out what appears to be an error of yours. Your response, calling him "sorry", was decidedly uncivil. You should apologize to him. Glenn was absolutely right that you'd try to wriggle out. Let's analyse your response. www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats2/enso/elnino/USpdist/son.gifLook at the precipitation map for fall El Nino effects. The mid-Atlantic coastal region is significantly drier than normal. As a matter of fact, it's the driest area in the entire country! You posted storms along the mid-Atlantic coast as "proof" that the region was in the throes of strong El Nino "effects". Yes, it seems that you don't know the effects of an El Nino on the Atlantic coast of the USA. By trying to wriggle out of your error, you dug the hole deeper. Or are you saying that NOAA is wrong about El Nino's effects on the mid-Atlantic states? , neither did the other 21 major climate centers. I did. Also, quit with the silly NOAA product maps (more than half of them are not valid and biased to reflect their AGW ideology. Michael Mann had lots and lots of help in 'hiding the decline' you know and some of them work at NOAA.) And I don't appreciate you coming off telling me I did not forecast ENSO and nickel-and-diming me. You should know better at age 63 to mind your manners, but then again you are a baby boomer right? Listen man, don't come off telling me of my 'errors.' You're in no position to do that and there is not 'wriggling,' just a lot of hot air from you based on that AGW ideology. If you cannot accept my answers then don't ask stupid questions while coming off as a smart ass. The fact you believe in AGW shows how silly you are. I don't have the time to play games with you. I am a serious person and work for a living. Please, go play your games elsewhere and stop taking your AGW craps here. Use your own bathroom and wash your hands. Thank you very much. |
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 9, 2011 3:21:22 GMT
Astromet, I will agree that there is strange shit going on. The east coast has been soaked, down here in Texas we are on fire and are on pace to absolutely crush the record for the driest year in our recorded history. Add in the Japanese Earthquake, One Icelandic volcano that I can't spell and Katla possibly on the way along with a pretty big volcano in South America and one thought to be extinct in North East Africa and it certainly seems strange. In addition we had a record year in the both the number and size of tornados this spring. We have always had volcanic and seismic activity floods, famine and drought but it certainly has an ominous "feel".
What is your opinion concerning this solar cycle from this point on. There has been much speculation that we may be entering a new Grand minimum? Although much more active here lately it certainly started off extremely slow. And do you see this 36 year cycle bringing the temps back to what we saw in the 1970's or colder?
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 9, 2011 3:37:59 GMT
Astromet, I will agree that there is strange shit going on. The east coast has been soaked, down here in Texas we are on fire and are on pace to absolutely crush the record for the driest year in our recorded history. Add in the Japanese Earthquake, One Icelandic volcano that I can't spell and Katla possibly on the way along with a pretty big volcano in South America and one thought to be extinct in North East Africa and it certainly seems strange. In addition we had a record year in the both the number and size of tornados this spring. We have always had volcanic and seismic activity floods, famine and drought but it certainly has an ominous "feel". What is your opinion concerning this solar cycle from this point on. There has been much speculation that we may be entering a new Grand minimum? Although much more active here lately it certainly started off extremely slow. And do you see this 36 year cycle bringing the temps back to what we saw in the 1970's or colder? Glenn, I have the next global cooling regime much colder - more active, with stronger storms and extended periods of cold, wetter seasons, floods and then droughts - in the southern latitudes climate conditions almost like what you would experience in a semi-arid desert in some regions, dry and hot during days, but freezing at night. The Sun has been acting as if it is gearing up for what could be the mother of all maximums, rather than a Grand Minimum. I expect the next grand minimum to get going after 2021. As for the rest of what you say, I hope not Glenn. It's wild, if we thought the last say, 30 years of climate was something, wait until global cooling starts and then sets in. We are thoroughly you know what. We are just not prepared. And think of the energy we would need to keep warm? The costs and the problems - geopolitical, etc., with oil and gas reserves. My sister lives in Texas and she told me that I was right about the drought I forecasted - it hadn't rained there since March and everyone is hurting big-time. This is very important because other than California, Texas adds a lot to the national economy. People sometimes don't realize just how important Texas is to our overall economy until serious drought strikes the region, along with the outbreaks of fires - like now. The 'extremes of weather' I forecasted years ago on the Farmer's Almanac have come true. I made many a forecast about radical temperature drops and snow falling in odd places when the winters were warm and people were talking about no snow for years. I knew that was not going to happen, and the events happened as I forecasted them because I was reading the astronomic signals. But something is definitely up, it's weird. You see astronomic signals that say this will happen - despite what others say - so you go ahead and make the forecast, but then there are these weirder events, almost as if another factor is at hand, something unnatural almost, deeper down - at the earth's crust, mingling with the atmosphere, which shows up in these wacky weather events straight out of left field. I've been monitoring these events and calculating how many times they show up (which has been a lot) and I think I've got a handle on them. But boy, are there some strange magnetic anomalies about, really weird signals. I've factored in enough to tweak my forecasts to account for them, but it adds many more hours to my usual schedule and I've got to eat, sleep and live life. I've got another long-range forecaster about to lend me a hand next year because he's seeing the same strange signals too so we will combine our efforts on the anomalous happenings. It's right out of the X-Files. |
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 9, 2011 3:58:52 GMT
When you say much colder do you mean maunder minimum/little ice age cold? Because that is a pretty extreme event considering the heat of this cycle.
And it seems counter intuitive that we would enter a large maximum solar cycle at a time when many including you are calling for return to colder temps? Isn't there a stronger correlation between minimal solar cycles and colder weather?
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 9, 2011 4:05:07 GMT
When you say much colder do you mean maunder minimum/little ice age cold? Because that is a pretty extreme event considering the heat of this cycle. And it seems counter intuitive that we would enter a large maximum solar cycle at a time when many including you are calling for return to colder temps? Isn't there a stronger correlation between minimal solar cycles and colder weather? Yes, definitely a little ice age is on the way Glenn. But not just yet. I'm usually always the contrarian forecaster anyway. When everyone says look left - I look right. That's just how my mind works. I don't join popular views simply because they are popular. I see things remote from most conventions and think for myself. The global cooling will not peak until the mid-2030s, but we will see the start of it nearer to 2017-2018 and then into the Twenty-Twenties in my forecast. My call for a solar maximum is based on the astronomic cycles of the Sun and Jupiter, which show another maximum is just ahead. I put the range between 2010-2012 for the start of it in my last forecast and I'm sticking to that. We should see the Sun get more active this decade, soon, and finish global warming with a bang. Then the Sun will begin its slide to a grand minimum phase by 2017 or so, but really setting in by the early-to-mid-2020s - peaking in the 2030s - a cold decade if there ever was one. I mean really cold. Global cooling is on the way, that's for sure - even warmer regions of the Earth will suffer because of global cooling which is much, much worse than global warming could ever be. |
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Post by commonsense on Sept 9, 2011 6:46:32 GMT
Theodore, I thought you were committed to being civil. Glenn was civil - his only "crime" was pointing out what appears to be an error of yours. Your response, calling him "sorry", was decidedly uncivil. You should apologize to him. Glenn was absolutely right that you'd try to wriggle out. Let's analyse your response. www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats2/enso/elnino/USpdist/son.gifLook at the precipitation map for fall El Nino effects. The mid-Atlantic coastal region is significantly drier than normal. As a matter of fact, it's the driest area in the entire country! You posted storms along the mid-Atlantic coast as "proof" that the region was in the throes of strong El Nino "effects". Yes, it seems that you don't know the effects of an El Nino on the Atlantic coast of the USA. By trying to wriggle out of your error, you dug the hole deeper. Or are you saying that NOAA is wrong about El Nino's effects on the mid-Atlantic states? , neither did the other 21 major climate centers. I did. Also, quit with the silly NOAA product maps (more than half of them are not valid and biased to reflect their AGW ideology. Michael Mann had lots and lots of help in 'hiding the decline' you know and some of them work at NOAA.) And I don't appreciate you coming off telling me I did not forecast ENSO and nickel-and-diming me. You should know better at age 63 to mind your manners, but then again you are a baby boomer right? Listen man, don't come off telling me of my 'errors.' You're in no position to do that and there is not 'wriggling,' just a lot of hot air from you based on that AGW ideology. If you cannot accept my answers then don't ask stupid questions while coming off as a smart ass. The fact you believe in AGW shows how silly you are. I don't have the time to play games with you. I am a serious person and work for a living. Please, go play your games elsewhere and stop taking your AGW craps here. Use your own bathroom and wash your hands. Thank you very much. I note that you did not apologize to Glenn and are now being uncivil to me. Shame on you. You also state that you correctly forecast ENSO. Please, anybody think that Astromet correctly forecast ENSO? He could use your support. Just a quick note saying that you think Astromet correctly forecast the latest ENSO cycle would be appreciated. Astromet, we'll see if it is just my opinion, or everybody's opinion. I note that you reject NOAA's maps of El Nino effects. Since you now state that when your forecasts predict a strong El Nino it could mean a huge La Nina with localized El Nino-type weather, and that the experts are generally wrong about what El Nino-type weather is, doesn't that make your El Nino forecasts entirely worthless? I knew that it would be a mistake to tell you my age (I forecast that correctly). You've been rude and crude about it ever since. Therefore, I may or may not have told you my age. Let's just say my age comment was likely to be as accurate as your forecasts. So in real life, you have no clue as to how old I am. Like I said, it is generally unwise to give out personal information on the internet, Theodore. You can keep pretending you know my age, if you like. Obviously you do have plenty of time to waste on this site. Your claim otherwise is simply an untruth. You just don't like it when people point out your errors, even when they do it quite civilly. I don't think "AGW crap" has entered the discussion at all here (other than your slinging the phrase as an insult to try to deflect from the subject at hand. Please stick to the topic and stop tossing gratuitous off-topic insults. I love your 2010-2012 or 2015-2016 solar maximum. That pretty much guarantees you're right - that is unless the experts who have been saying May 2013 ever since 2009 are right. Well, I note that you've slipped in the words "start" and "end", so I guess that you can claim victory even if the experts are spot-on, as long as people don't go back to your original forecast, that is. (Then it will be tough to erase that pesky "three years later than most scientists believe", which pegs the solar maximum to 2016.) There, that answers your post. Now, back to the meat of the topic: Astromet has been consistent about predicting Solar Cycle 24's maximum being historic. Glenn, I believe he's saying that SC24 will be a huge last-hurrah for the large modern solar cycles. Thus, the planet will continue to warm through SC24, and then the grand minimum will begin, and temperatures will plummet. He believes there will be no lag time, which means that Icefisher's 40-year lag theory would have to be incorrect. (or even Icefisher's shorter lag theory, if one ignores 1958) Now an on-topic question for the resident astrometric expert: You said that Jupiter and its interaction with the sun is the reason SC24 will have an historic maximum. Can you expand on that? What is different about Jupiter this time that will make this cycle an historic maximum? I'd also like your thoughts on why the experts, including the resident solar expert Dr Svalgaard, are all so completely wrong about the date and magnitude of SC24's maximum. Also, since Jupiter's astrometric conditions (primarily its orbit, right?) are known to many decimal places, why is the solar maximum only known to within a two year window? Thanks in advance. |
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Post by neilhamp on Sept 9, 2011 7:25:45 GMT
Astromet you claim
"The Sun has been acting as if it is gearing up for what could be the mother of all maximums"
Wow! This is looking left when everyone else is looking right
I like "commonsense" seek clarification.
Are you saying this current cycle will be a super active cycle?
By "super active" do you mean the number of sun spots will be high? (i.e greater than 100)
Or do you mean sun spot numbers will be as predicted (about 65) but some will be particularly violent with large coronal mass emmissions directed to earth?.
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 9, 2011 15:12:12 GMT
commonsense, In my honest opinion and with all due respect to astromet I do not think he or anyone else can accurately forecast day to day, week to week or even month to month using astrometeorology.
However, I do think that there are seasonal, yearly and multi year patterns that are clearly effected by celestial happenings. The sun is a very active star and I think changes in sunspot cycles, magnetism and solar winds have a larger effect on our climate system than many in the AGW camp would admit. I also suspect that Astromets longer range forecasts may have merit.
Concerning AGW I really do not have a dog in the hunt. I think it is a valid theory but, I also believe its effect has been overstated. CO2 plays a role but land usage and deforestation probably plays a bigger role than many in the scientific community are giving credit. Natural cycles clearly play a larger role. I am trying to keep an open mind until the end of the decade when both the PDO, AMO and solar cycles are due to switch.
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Post by trbixler on Sept 9, 2011 16:27:29 GMT
commonsense, In my honest opinion and with all due respect to astromet I do not think he or anyone else can accurately forecast day to day, week to week or even month to month using astrometeorology. However, I do think that there are seasonal, yearly and multi year patterns that are clearly effected by celestial happenings. The sun is a very active star and I think changes in sunspot cycles, magnetism and solar winds have a larger effect on our climate system than many in the AGW camp would admit. I also suspect that Astromets longer range forecasts may have merit. Concerning AGW I really do not have a dog in the hunt. I think it is a valid theory but, I also believe its effect has been overstated. CO2 plays a role but land usage and deforestation probably plays a bigger role than many in the scientific community are giving credit. Natural cycles clearly play a larger role. I am trying to keep an open mind until the end of the decade when both the PDO, AMO and solar cycles are due to switch. No interest in paying the taxes based on AGW religion. No worry about any economy wasting Billions on AGW because it is the current vogue. So far your take on natural cycles seems reasonable to me but the precautionary idea, well that does not make any sense to me. For me I am getting kind of old but I do have kids. |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 9, 2011 19:52:09 GMT
NOAA did not forecast ENSO, neither did the other 21 major climate centers. I did. Also, quit with the silly NOAA product maps (more than half of them are not valid and biased to reflect their AGW ideology. Michael Mann had lots and lots of help in 'hiding the decline' you know and some of them work at NOAA.) And I don't appreciate you coming off telling me I did not forecast ENSO and nickel-and-diming me. You should know better at age 63 to mind your manners, but then again you are a baby boomer right? Listen man, don't come off telling me of my 'errors.' You're in no position to do that and there is not 'wriggling,' just a lot of hot air from you based on that AGW ideology. If you cannot accept my answers then don't ask stupid questions while coming off as a smart ass. The fact you believe in AGW shows how silly you are. I don't have the time to play games with you. I am a serious person and work for a living. Please, go play your games elsewhere and stop taking your AGW craps here. Use your own bathroom and wash your hands. Thank you very much. I note that you did not apologize to Glenn and are now being uncivil to me. Shame on you. You also state that you correctly forecast ENSO. Please, anybody think that Astromet correctly forecast ENSO? He could use your support. Just a quick note saying that you think Astromet correctly forecast the latest ENSO cycle would be appreciated. Astromet, we'll see if it is just my opinion, or everybody's opinion. I note that you reject NOAA's maps of El Nino effects. Since you now state that when your forecasts predict a strong El Nino it could mean a huge La Nina with localized El Nino-type weather, and that the experts are generally wrong about what El Nino-type weather is, doesn't that make your El Nino forecasts entirely worthless? I knew that it would be a mistake to tell you my age (I forecast that correctly). You've been rude and crude about it ever since. Therefore, I may or may not have told you my age. Let's just say my age comment was likely to be as accurate as your forecasts. So in real life, you have no clue as to how old I am. Like I said, it is generally unwise to give out personal information on the internet, Theodore. You can keep pretending you know my age, if you like. Obviously you do have plenty of time to waste on this site. Your claim otherwise is simply an untruth. You just don't like it when people point out your errors, even when they do it quite civilly. I don't think "AGW crap" has entered the discussion at all here (other than your slinging the phrase as an insult to try to deflect from the subject at hand. Please stick to the topic and stop tossing gratuitous off-topic insults. I love your 2010-2012 or 2015-2016 solar maximum. That pretty much guarantees you're right - that is unless the experts who have been saying May 2013 ever since 2009 are right. Well, I note that you've slipped in the words "start" and "end", so I guess that you can claim victory even if the experts are spot-on, as long as people don't go back to your original forecast, that is. (Then it will be tough to erase that pesky "three years later than most scientists believe", which pegs the solar maximum to 2016.) There, that answers your post. Now, back to the meat of the topic: Astromet has been consistent about predicting Solar Cycle 24's maximum being historic. Glenn, I believe he's saying that SC24 will be a huge last-hurrah for the large modern solar cycles. Thus, the planet will continue to warm through SC24, and then the grand minimum will begin, and temperatures will plummet. He believes there will be no lag time, which means that Icefisher's 40-year lag theory would have to be incorrect. (or even Icefisher's shorter lag theory, if one ignores 1958) Now an on-topic question for the resident astrometric expert: You said that Jupiter and its interaction with the sun is the reason SC24 will have an historic maximum. Can you expand on that? What is different about Jupiter this time that will make this cycle an historic maximum? I'd also like your thoughts on why the experts, including the resident solar expert Dr Svalgaard, are all so completely wrong about the date and magnitude of SC24's maximum. Also, since Jupiter's astrometric conditions (primarily its orbit, right?) are known to many decimal places, why is the solar maximum only known to within a two year window? Thanks in advance. Yes, everyone is "wrong" common sense, that way, your AGW religion - which violates the laws of physics on Earth by the way - can then remain in its warmest little place, right? I mean what I say and say what I mean. Rather than reading into what is said and written as you desire, either accept it as it is, or be on your merry AGW way. "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." - Dr. Seuss |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 9, 2011 20:36:01 GMT
Astromet you claim "The Sun has been acting as if it is gearing up for what could be the mother of all maximums" Wow! This is looking left when everyone else is looking right I like "commonsense" seek clarification. Are you saying this current cycle will be a super active cycle? By "super active" do you mean the number of sun spots will be high? (i.e greater than 100) Or do you mean sun spot numbers will be as predicted (about 65) but some will be particularly violent with large coronal mass emmissions directed to earth?. Yes Neil, the Sun has been waking up, though you will find that as with the climate and weather in the real world, the doubters are always the last on the train while they talk cheap. The point is that the Sun, in my estimation, is about to enter a new maximum. It emerged out of minimum at its low, which was in December 2008. The cycles of minimum and maximum are timed by planetary alignments with the Sun, mainly those of Jupiter, and we are now seeing the Sun more active with CMEs - See -> sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime-images.htmlIt is not surprising that those who chime in with their uninformed opinions do not notice, since all of them take the Sun for granted and could care less to mind forecasts or to observe the Sun itself except when it suits them. It is much, much easier to sound off with opinion, criticize and pretend one knows what one is talking about - common fare for many who could not be bothered to work hard, to observe closely and to mind real astronomic events. This will be an historic solar maximum, that has been my forecast for a long time. This one will usher out global warming with a bang, not a whimper, and we will witness very active solar activity soon, in this new decade of the Twenty-Tens. The Sun recycles its very powerful magnetic waves, the next one due are those from the historic maximum of the late 1950s. The Sun is ramping up to its maximum through 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, with a bit of leveling off in 2016 and 2017 and then more so in 2018, 2019, 2020, to begin a new grand minimum phase. We will have entered a global cooling cycle officially in 2017 in my forecast and will see global cooling take more and more of a hold on the Earth's new climate regime. We have been seeing increasing sunspots continuing to emerge since 2009, in 2010 and more so in 2011 with CMEs. The Earth is in for quite a show to come with major geomagnetic storms and auroras. It has been my forecast that the Sun will be in maximum through to about 2015-2017, when we will see a gradual leveling off towards its grand minimum phase, which helps to usher in global cooling. |
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 9, 2011 20:42:51 GMT
Astromet, Do you think the maximum will occur in Solar cycle 24 or 25? And what are your thoughts on the southern hemisphere during the next cold cycle. Is the cooling limited to the Northern Hemisphere or worldwide?
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 9, 2011 20:50:51 GMT
Astromet, if Solar Cycle 24 does not really become much more active and actually levels off do you see that pushing us into a colder cycle earlier?
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 9, 2011 20:59:06 GMT
Astromet, Do you think the maximum will occur in Solar cycle 24 or 25? And what are your thoughts on the southern hemisphere during the next cold cycle. Is the cooling limited to the Northern Hemisphere or worldwide? Hi Glenn, I made my forecast for the next solar maximum years ago. One of the problems with those who are critical is that they are short-term thinkers. I am not, I am a long-range forecaster as this maximum is Solar Cycle #24. The next grand minimum will be SC#25, but that's further down the road as we've got a maximum to go though. To answer your second question - Some climatologists who believed NCAR's solar forecast jumped the gun, and so were premature and disappointed when the Sun did not immediately switch right into maximum. Then El Nino came, followed by La Nina, and the cooling talk started because of the misunderstanding when the maximum would take place. But solar maximums never jump start like that. The sunspots are gradual and timed by planetary motion, mainly that of Jupiter. We see more and more sunspots as the Sun heads to maximum activity. As for global cooling, it will affect the entire planet, both hemispheres. We will see increasing signs of anomalous cold events, which foretell what is coming with the colder global climate regime, this means increasing La Ninas and less El Ninos. In Texas for instance, with global cooling, there will be more drought popping up frequently, so the idea for the state is to prepare and adapt to the new cold regime with innovative means for farming and infrastructure. It can be done, as Americans are very innovative people, but we have to get the dummies out of the way - because stupidity is very, very expensive. |
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