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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Sept 9, 2011 21:05:28 GMT
NOAA did not forecast ENSO, neither did the other 21 major climate centers. I did. Also, quit with the silly NOAA product maps (more than half of them are not valid and biased to reflect their AGW ideology. Michael Mann had lots and lots of help in 'hiding the decline' you know and some of them work at NOAA.) And I don't appreciate you coming off telling me I did not forecast ENSO and nickel-and-diming me. You should know better at age 63 to mind your manners, but then again you are a baby boomer right? Listen man, don't come off telling me of my 'errors.' You're in no position to do that and there is not 'wriggling,' just a lot of hot air from you based on that AGW ideology. If you cannot accept my answers then don't ask stupid questions while coming off as a smart ass. The fact you believe in AGW shows how silly you are. I don't have the time to play games with you. I am a serious person and work for a living. Please, go play your games elsewhere and stop taking your AGW craps here. Use your own bathroom and wash your hands. Thank you very much. Rant On!!! Beware of spittle. Small children may need to leave the room. Asstroboy. wrong again. Last month NOAA issued a La Niña watch. On the 9th NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory. I'm pretty sure everyone here knows that a La Niña is coming except you. I predicted the exact course of ENSO months ago. And I am an IT guy, not a weather guy. You were arrogant, insulting, and wrong when you predicted ENSO neutral for this fall at that time. I quoted all of your posts so that you can not delete them or modify them. You are provably, repeatedly, wrong. You cover this up by being an insulting blow hard. Please stop being such an arrogant ah. I don't mind people making predictions, I like hearing about what other people think. I think being able to forecast the weather 6 months to a year in advance would be wonderful. Being able to forecast ENSO is necessary for this. No one, can do this, but we are trying. Your ENSO prediction is currently so wrong as to be laughable. La Niña conditions returned in August 2011. In less then two months it will be official. I was right you were wrong. Everyone on this board knows this. Admit that you were wrong and move on. Denying it this point makes you look more then just active stupid. Have you taken your meds lately? Furthermore, I want to hear what others have to say, your insulting, arrogant, and erroneous rants are interfering with the sharing of information on this thread. We need to get back to talking about the approaching La Niña and what it might be like without having to work around you and your unbelievably awful posts. I am not the only one on this thread that has a problem with you. A number of others have come forward to try and explain to you that you are not being helpful. Miraculously in your case all three camps (AGW supporters, AGW sceptics, and Lukewarmers) agree on this. I'm not sure we have ever agreed to anything before. Please wake up to the fact that everyone who has posted recently to you is asking you to respond to the clue bat that you are being repeatedly pummeled with and take a chill pill. /rant Sorry people, just needed to get that off my chest. |
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 9, 2011 21:09:34 GMT
Astromet, one thing is certain. If this drought continues unabated for much longer their will be far fewer farmers from the Lone Star State left to worry about global cooling in the coming decades.
What are your thoughts on the coming La Nina many NOAA is predicting for the coming winter? Im sure you know this but for Texas their is a high correlation between Nina's and droughts and the state climatologist has predicted this drought to continue into next summer.
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 9, 2011 21:10:51 GMT
NOAA did not forecast ENSO, neither did the other 21 major climate centers. I did. Also, quit with the silly NOAA product maps (more than half of them are not valid and biased to reflect their AGW ideology. Michael Mann had lots and lots of help in 'hiding the decline' you know and some of them work at NOAA.) And I don't appreciate you coming off telling me I did not forecast ENSO and nickel-and-diming me. You should know better at age 63 to mind your manners, but then again you are a baby boomer right? Listen man, don't come off telling me of my 'errors.' You're in no position to do that and there is not 'wriggling,' just a lot of hot air from you based on that AGW ideology. If you cannot accept my answers then don't ask stupid questions while coming off as a smart ass. The fact you believe in AGW shows how silly you are. I don't have the time to play games with you. I am a serious person and work for a living. Please, go play your games elsewhere and stop taking your AGW craps here. Use your own bathroom and wash your hands. Thank you very much. Rant On!!! Beware of spittle. Small children may need to leave the room. Asstroboy. wrong again. Last month NOAA issued a La Niña watch. On the 9th NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory. I'm pretty sure everyone here knows that a La Niña is coming except you. I predicted the exact course of ENSO months ago. And I am an IT guy, not a weather guy. You were arrogant, insulting, and wrong when you predicted ENSO neutral for this fall at that time. I quoted all of your posts so that you can not delete them or modify them. You are provably, repeatedly, wrong. You cover this up by being an insulting blow hard. Please stop being such an arrogant ah. I don't mind people making predictions, I like hearing about what other people think. I think being able to forecast the weather 6 months to a year in advance would be wonderful. Being able to forecast ENSO is necessary for this. No one, can do this, but we are trying. Your ENSO prediction is currently so wrong as to be laughable. La Niña conditions returned in August 2011. In less then two months it will be official. I was right you were wrong. Everyone on this board knows this. Admit that you were wrong and move on. Denying it this point makes you look more then just active stupid. Have you taken your meds lately? Furthermore, I want to hear what others have to say, your insulting, arrogant, and erroneous rants are interfering with the sharing of information on this thread. We need to get back to talking about the approaching La Niña and what it might be like without having to work around you and your unbelievably awful posts. I am not the only one on this thread that has a problem with you. A number of others have come forward to try and explain to you that you are not being helpful. Miraculously in your case all three camps (AGW supporters, AGW sceptics, and Lukewarmers) agree on this. I'm not sure we have ever agreed to anything before. Please wake up to the fact that everyone who has posted recently to you is asking you to respond to the clue bat that you are being repeatedly pummeled with and take a chill pill. /rant Sorry people, just needed to get that off my chest. A "La Nina Watch" is just that. NOAA always issues 'advisories' - so what? But it is not a forecast. They don't do long-range forecasts and NOAA sure did not forecast ENSO, did they? So, let's wait and see, but hold your water and take your own 'chill pill' dontgetoutmuch. Just needed to get that off my chest. |
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Post by commonsense on Sept 9, 2011 21:29:10 GMT
Yes, everyone is "wrong" common sense, that way, your AGW religion - which violates the laws of physics on Earth by the way - can then remain in its warmest little place, right? I mean what I say and say what I mean. Rather than reading into what is said and written as you desire, either accept it as it is, or be on your merry AGW way. "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." - Dr. Seuss I am not trying to read anything into what is written. I'm trying to understand it and compare it reality. That's why, when you wrote "a very strong El Nino" I questioned it, and accepted your response that El Nino is not like a light switch, its effects can be felt after it is gone. Since there was a huge La Nina in effect at the time, I added that into the equation, so your forecast of a very strong El Nino in a certain area would mean El Nino effects which override the La Nina within a specific locality. OK, I semi-accept that, though it makes me wonder why you didn't say so in the first place. Claiming a very strong El Nino instead of a huge La Nina with localized El Nino effects truly degrades the utility of your forecast. Finally, I checked out El Nino effects (again, sticking entirely with what you said and NOT reading anything into it), and found that El Nino's effects are completely opposite from what you claimed as evidence of El Nino. Now you throw in a final twist - that the experts deliberately lie about the Mid-Atlantic rainfall patterns of El Nino in order to kowtow to Mann's AGW religion. I'm sorry, Theodore, that is just too much to swallow, as there is no reason to falsify such data - it does nothing to advance the "AGW religion". No, you were wrong about El Nino and gave a wormy response to try to cover it up. Then when you got caught again, you resorted to your standard technique of claiming Conspiracy. Similarly, you were wrong about La Nina, which has re-emerged even though you forecast ENSO neutral conditions. I expect that you will not in any way shape or form admit that you were in the slightest bit wrong about this latest prediction either. I suppose there are ENSO-neutral type weather conditions somewhere on the planet, so I suggest you use that out. I guess another out might work for you if this La Nina ends up being very weak. In that case, it would be reasonable to claim that it was just too small to appear astrometrically. NOAA currently supports that possibility: " La Niña appears to have staged a more rapid comeback than anticipated last month, although the overall likelihood of a 'double-dip' La Niña has always been higher than 50%, given the reasoning I gave in September 2010: big La Niña events have a strong tendency to re-emerge after 'taking time off' during northern hemispheric summer, as last seen in 2008. On the other hand, this month's return to weak La Niña conditions is not guaranteed to continue into the winter either: the La Niña winter of 1988-89 was followed by a brief interlude of ENSO-neutral conditions in early summer of 1989, then a brief return to La Niña in late summer, and back to ENSO-neutral during the subsequent boreal fall and winter. However, that is the only such case in the last six decades, so La Niña is more likely to continue into the fall than not." Please, this thread would go much smoother if you would just state your errors and explain what went wrong astrometrically. Then we could actually learn a bit about your craft, and move on to the next subject and be done with it. I still think everyone would find it interesting to know what you think is different about Jupiter that bodes for an historic SC24 maximum. Care to comment? |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 9, 2011 21:48:22 GMT
Yes, everyone is "wrong" common sense, that way, your AGW religion - which violates the laws of physics on Earth by the way - can then remain in its warmest little place, right? I mean what I say and say what I mean. Rather than reading into what is said and written as you desire, either accept it as it is, or be on your merry AGW way. "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." - Dr. Seuss I am not trying to read anything into what is written. I'm trying to understand it and compare it reality. That's why, when you wrote "a very strong El Nino" I questioned it, and accepted your response that El Nino is not like a light switch, its effects can be felt after it is gone. Since there was a huge La Nina in effect at the time, I added that into the equation, so your forecast of a very strong El Nino in a certain area would mean El Nino effects which override the La Nina within a specific locality. OK, I semi-accept that, though it makes me wonder why you didn't say so in the first place. Claiming a very strong El Nino instead of a huge La Nina with localized El Nino effects truly degrades the utility of your forecast. Finally, I checked out El Nino effects (again, sticking entirely with what you said and NOT reading anything into it), and found that El Nino's effects are completely opposite from what you claimed as evidence of El Nino. Now you throw in a final twist - that the experts deliberately lie about the Mid-Atlantic rainfall patterns of El Nino in order to kowtow to Mann's AGW religion. I'm sorry, Theodore, that is just too much to swallow, as there is no reason to falsify such data - it does nothing to advance the "AGW religion". No, you were wrong about El Nino and gave a wormy response to try to cover it up. Then when you got caught again, you resorted to your standard technique of claiming Conspiracy. Similarly, you were wrong about La Nina, which has re-emerged even though you forecast ENSO neutral conditions. I expect that you will not in any way shape or form admit that you were in the slightest bit wrong about this latest prediction either. I suppose there are ENSO-neutral type weather conditions somewhere on the planet, so I suggest you use that out. I guess another out might work for you if this La Nina ends up being very weak. In that case, it would be reasonable to claim that it was just too small to appear astrometrically. NOAA currently supports that possibility: " La Niña appears to have staged a more rapid comeback than anticipated last month, although the overall likelihood of a 'double-dip' La Niña has always been higher than 50%, given the reasoning I gave in September 2010: big La Niña events have a strong tendency to re-emerge after 'taking time off' during northern hemispheric summer, as last seen in 2008. On the other hand, this month's return to weak La Niña conditions is not guaranteed to continue into the winter either: the La Niña winter of 1988-89 was followed by a brief interlude of ENSO-neutral conditions in early summer of 1989, then a brief return to La Niña in late summer, and back to ENSO-neutral during the subsequent boreal fall and winter. However, that is the only such case in the last six decades, so La Niña is more likely to continue into the fall than not." Please, this thread would go much smoother if you would just state your errors and explain what went wrong astrometrically. Then we could actually learn a bit about your craft, and move on to the next subject and be done with it. I still think everyone would find it interesting to know what you think is different about Jupiter that bodes for an historic SC24 maximum. Care to comment? How can I be 'wrong' about La Nina when I forecasted it? Listen, discussions with you 'common sense' would go ten times smoother if you would just quit with the sarcastic stupid crap. One always has to navigate through your debris just to see what you are actually saying - which often turns out not to be much. Moreover, this thing some of you have for NOAA's advisories on ENSO isn't saying much at all since I continue to remind all of you that NOAA did not forecast the 2009-2011 ENSO. I was the one who forecasted ENSO and I will forecast the next ENSO too. I already know when it will arrive. As for Jupiter, Saturn and The Sun -The spin-orbital coupling of the Sun along with that of Jupiter and Saturn is well known to astronomic climate forecasters. See -> landscheidt.wordpress.com/2011/05/24/a-guide-to-understanding-the-solar-powerwave/"We present evidence to show that changes in the Sun’s equatorial rotation rate are synchronized with changes in its orbital motion about the barycentre of the Solar System.
We propose that this synchronization is indicative of a spin–orbit coupling mechanism operating between the Jovian planets and the Sun. However, we are unable to suggest a plausible underlying physical cause for the coupling.
Some researchers have proposed that it is the period of the meridional flow in the convective zone of the Sun that controls both the duration and strength of the Solar cycle.
We postulate that the overall period of the meridional flow is set by the level of disruption to the flow that is caused by changes in Sun’s equatorial rotation speed.
Based on our claim that changes in the Sun’s equatorial rotation rate are synchronized with changes in the Sun’s orbital motion about the barycentre, we propose that the mean period for the Sun’s meridional flow is set by a Synodic resonance between the flow period (~22.3 yr), the overall 178.7-yr repetition period for the solar orbital motion, and the 19.86-yr synodic period of Jupiter and Saturn."See -> www.publish.csiro.au/nid/138/paper/AS06018.htmThis one is in French -> la.climatologie.free.fr/soleil/soleil1.htmSee -> www.springerlink.com/content/w57236105034h657/You can easily discover why these cycles are important if you did not waste your time on silliness. You will not learn by stating your uninformed opinion, because everyone has one, like everyone has an ass**** - so what? Why don't you get off that sinking AGW boat 'commonsense' - and join the winning team? |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 9, 2011 22:12:25 GMT
Astromet, one thing is certain. If this drought continues unabated for much longer their will be far fewer farmers from the Lone Star State left to worry about global cooling in the coming decades. What are your thoughts on the coming La Nina many NOAA is predicting for the coming winter? Im sure you know this but for Texas their is a high correlation between Nina's and droughts and the state climatologist has predicted this drought to continue into next summer. The drought will continue into 2012, that's what the astronomic signals say. Next year is worse for drought in Texas than this year with a little relief coming in 2013 though, a bit of precipitation is due which will help by then. As for this coming winter overall, my forecast in short is that it will be right on time, a traditional winter but with much less precipitation than the last two. It's a brief winter at that with spring 2012 earlier than normal and warmer-than-normal followed by a longer summer season (Indian Summer) in 2012. |
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Post by commonsense on Sept 9, 2011 23:57:08 GMT
How can I be 'wrong' about La Nina when I forecasted it? I think you are untruthing, to use a euphemism. I only saw your forecast that ENSO neutral conditions would persist for the next few years. Please point us to where you forecast the current La Nina. |
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Post by woodstove on Sept 10, 2011 0:09:37 GMT
How can I be 'wrong' about La Nina when I forecasted it? I think you are untruthing, to use a euphemism. I only saw your forecast that ENSO neutral conditions would persist for the next few years. Please point us to where you forecast the current La Nina. Astromet, you forecasted ENSO-neutral for the coming year(s). You insult us again. |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 10, 2011 0:23:24 GMT
How can I be 'wrong' about La Nina when I forecasted it? I think you are untruthing, to use a euphemism. I only saw your forecast that ENSO neutral conditions would persist for the next few years. Please point us to where you forecast the current La Nina. ENSO is not always in operation, as you famously said, how is that possible? Point you to where I forecasted ENSO? You're on the freaking thread itself bro. Geez. |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 10, 2011 0:24:33 GMT
I think you are untruthing, to use a euphemism. I only saw your forecast that ENSO neutral conditions would persist for the next few years. Please point us to where you forecast the current La Nina. Astromet, you forecasted ENSO-neutral for the coming year(s). You insult us again. Glad to serve you an ENSO-neutral woodstove. Don't forget to tip. |
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Post by commonsense on Sept 10, 2011 0:25:31 GMT
As for Jupiter, Saturn and The Sun -The spin-orbital coupling of the Sun along with that of Jupiter and Saturn is well known to astronomic climate forecasters. See -> landscheidt.wordpress.com/2011/05/24/a-guide-to-understanding-the-solar-powerwave/"We present evidence to show that changes in the Sun’s equatorial rotation rate are synchronized with changes in its orbital motion about the barycentre of the Solar System.
We propose that this synchronization is indicative of a spin–orbit coupling mechanism operating between the Jovian planets and the Sun. However, we are unable to suggest a plausible underlying physical cause for the coupling.
Some researchers have proposed that it is the period of the meridional flow in the convective zone of the Sun that controls both the duration and strength of the Solar cycle.
We postulate that the overall period of the meridional flow is set by the level of disruption to the flow that is caused by changes in Sun’s equatorial rotation speed.
Based on our claim that changes in the Sun’s equatorial rotation rate are synchronized with changes in the Sun’s orbital motion about the barycentre, we propose that the mean period for the Sun’s meridional flow is set by a Synodic resonance between the flow period (~22.3 yr), the overall 178.7-yr repetition period for the solar orbital motion, and the 19.86-yr synodic period of Jupiter and Saturn."See -> www.publish.csiro.au/nid/138/paper/AS06018.htmThis one is in French -> la.climatologie.free.fr/soleil/soleil1.htmSee -> www.springerlink.com/content/w57236105034h657/ thanks for the response, Astromet. I note that all your sources admit that they have no clue as to an underlying physical cause, so they are based solely on correlation, as opposed to causation. That makes it weak, indeed. As I understand it, the sun is always in free-fall, and so is not affected, other than by tidal forces, which are small indeed. Tides on the sun are a few millimetres, I believe. Can you supply some insight? Further, the matter at hand is why SC24 will be an "historic maximum". I note nothing at all supporting that prediction. As a matter of fact, Landscheidt predicts a small SC24 in this graph: www.landscheidt.info/images/Powerwave.pngAre you saying Landscheidt is wrong? It is curious that you post sources which completely disagree with you as a reference. What did Landscheidt miss? Again, what astrometric data leads you to believe that SC24 will have an historic maximum? |
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Post by commonsense on Sept 10, 2011 0:49:35 GMT
I think you are untruthing, to use a euphemism. I only saw your forecast that ENSO neutral conditions would persist for the next few years. Please point us to where you forecast the current La Nina. ENSO is not always in operation, as you famously said, how is that possible? Point you to where I forecasted ENSO? You're on the freaking thread itself bro. Geez. From your post 1895 on Sept 2: "Yes, this most recent ENSO (2009-2011) will be nearly back to neutral. We are past the worst of it. We will not see another ENSO of significance until after 2017. That is my long-range forecast on the next ENSO." and "As for the recent ENSO, as I've said, we will return to neutral conditions and are past the worst of El Nino and La Nina." And from that you now say you forecast the current La Nina! You sure aren't much for truth and honesty, are you? Or did you simply forget what you posted a week ago? |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 10, 2011 1:00:53 GMT
ENSO is not always in operation, as you famously said, how is that possible? Point you to where I forecasted ENSO? You're on the freaking thread itself bro. Geez. From your post 1895 on Sept 2: "Yes, this most recent ENSO (2009-2011) will be nearly back to neutral. We are past the worst of it. We will not see another ENSO of significance until after 2017. That is my long-range forecast on the next ENSO." and "As for the recent ENSO, as I've said, we will return to neutral conditions and are past the worst of El Nino and La Nina." And from that you now say you forecast the current La Nina! You sure aren't much for truth and honesty, are you? Or did you simply forget what you posted a week ago? Common sense, are you taking your medication? |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 10, 2011 1:16:57 GMT
commonsense, In my honest opinion and with all due respect to astromet I do not think he or anyone else can accurately forecast day to day, week to week or even month to month using astrometeorology. However, I do think that there are seasonal, yearly and multi year patterns that are clearly effected by celestial happenings. The sun is a very active star and I think changes in sunspot cycles, magnetism and solar winds have a larger effect on our climate system than many in the AGW camp would admit. I also suspect that Astromets longer range forecasts may have merit. Concerning AGW I really do not have a dog in the hunt. I think it is a valid theory but, I also believe its effect has been overstated. CO2 plays a role but land usage and deforestation probably plays a bigger role than many in the scientific community are giving credit. Natural cycles clearly play a larger role. I am trying to keep an open mind until the end of the decade when both the PDO, AMO and solar cycles are due to switch. No interest in paying the taxes based on AGW religion. No worry about any economy wasting Billions on AGW because it is the current vogue. So far your take on natural cycles seems reasonable to me but the precautionary idea, well that does not make any sense to me. For me I am getting kind of old but I do have kids. The drought in Texas will cause a lot of pain for many regions later this year and into next year as the economic damage from climate conditions continues to be tabulated from the effects of the recent ENSO, as forecasted: In the meantime, I am also forecasting that the years of late 2009 to 2016 will feature some of the world's wildest climate and weather events of the early 21st century that, by the mid-2010s, will have seen the close of the current 36-year phase of global warming that Earth has experienced since 1980.
By 2010, in my estimation, we will have entered the 30th year of Solar-forced global warming. These last six-to-seven-and-a-half years, from 2010 to about 2017, will likely feature some of the warmest global temperatures recorded in the entire 36th year global warming cycle.What's happening in the real world of climate & weather - Texas – Crops & Cattle Ravaged By Wildfires
Sept. 9, 2011 -- The Lone Star state is enduring historically extreme weather events and a spate of natural disasters that are slashing harvests of cotton and wheat - forcing ranchers to cull cattle at unprecedented rates.
A year-long drought has affected 80% of Texas – with over 50% of the state described by the USDA as suffering from 'exceptional drought.'
Climatologists note that only six inches of rain have fallen all year, against the recent average of 16 inches per year. These arid conditions have set off a cycle – triggering heat waves and sending temperatures soaring to at least 150 year highs – or perhaps longer given that record keeping began in 1895.
The dry conditions on the ground have withered vegetation and wicked away any moisture that might have brought down temperatures and set the stage perfectly for yet another catastrophe, this time in the form of wildfires that have raged across 3.6 million acres of the state so far this year.
These fires have been further fanned by the winds of tropical storm Lee this week.
Texas is the biggest producer in the U.S. of wheat, cotton and cattle, and the estimated $5.2 billion of agricultural losses caused by the wildfires will have devastated what few crops had survived the drought.
Cotton production is expected to suffer the most, with 50% of areas planted already abandoned by farmers.
For wheat, 40% of the Texan crop has already been described by the USDA in August as in “very poor” condition. At least a third of the average Texan wheat crop – about 100 million bushels per year – will have been destroyed.
Other forecasts are more negative, and draw parallels with the disastrous harvests of 2009 or even worse, 2006.
For ranchers, the scarcity of hay and water has left them no option but to slaughter breeding cattle in order to avoid crippling feed costs that are already running at three time normal prices, and likely to climb even higher this winter.
All in all, it’s a terrible time for Texan farmers, and American consumers will feel the effects on their food prices soon – the state is also a major producer of sorghum, peanuts, grapefruit, sugarcane, carrots and melon.
While meat prices might come down in the short term, they will rise again pretty quickly as the price of feed – from hay to grains – goes up due to shortages caused by the fires." |
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Post by commonsense on Sept 10, 2011 1:25:08 GMT
From your post 1895 on Sept 2: "Yes, this most recent ENSO (2009-2011) will be nearly back to neutral. We are past the worst of it. We will not see another ENSO of significance until after 2017. That is my long-range forecast on the next ENSO." and "As for the recent ENSO, as I've said, we will return to neutral conditions and are past the worst of El Nino and La Nina." And from that you now say you forecast the current La Nina! You sure aren't much for truth and honesty, are you? Or did you simply forget what you posted a week ago? Common sense, are you taking your medication? It's clear that you were wrong (again), attempted to weasel out of it (again), got caught (again), and resorted to baseless insults (again). |
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