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Post by icefisher on Sept 10, 2011 16:53:01 GMT
Any and all help with this project from some of you regulars would be more than welcome.
On daily stuff you will do better with fishermen and on seasonal stuff you will do better with farmers. The most amazing computer in world sits on our shoulders. Fishermen are tuned to daily stuff as their lives depend on it day by day. Since they don't grow fish they pay less attention to stuff further out. But not that they are complete buffoons on seasonal indicator stuff. Seasons are planned based on trends, forage availability, water conditions and temperatures; just that they don't think of that stuff in terms of long term weather forecasts nearly as much as a farmer whose entire net worth might be at risk for months primarily due to weather. For fishermen and weather that total net worth, and life, is at risk for the time it takes to return to port. A few fishermen still go out for long periods and distances from port, sometimes weeks from port (though generally a lot less than bygone days when speed was connected to winds), so you might want to consider that in your selection criteria.
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 10, 2011 17:32:13 GMT
icefisher, Thanks for your imput. Fishermen are more in tune with daily and weekly weather and much of the folklore from them is lost. Sonar, Fishfinders, Radar and other modern electronics has taken much of the need for lore out of the equation.
The same can be said but to a lesser extent for farmers. Advances in hybrid seeds, farm machinery and irrigation have made them less sensitive to weather then they once were.
Part of the reason I am writing the book is to try and capture some of this knowledge from the "old-timers" who pre-date all of our modern technology before much of it is lost.
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 10, 2011 17:36:04 GMT
I don't put much faith in any detailed forecast more than 10 days out. What I mean by detailed is specific weather events for specific towns. For instance predicting rain, sleet, snow for Houston, Texas. That holds true for Astromet, NOAA, or The Farmers Almanac. There are just too many variables and mother nature is quick to change. I think there is a limited amount of seasonal forecasting accuracy. For instance the effects of La Nina and El Nino are well established and a forecast for a dry, cool Fall/Winter can be semi-valid and have merit for farmers and fishermen that still make their living out in nature. I am in the process of writing a book "Back in the Day, Weather Lore from Fishermen and Farmers" in which I am trying to link weather lore with semi scientific reasoning. For example spiders may build their webs higher in trees because of certain changes in the PDO, or AMO or other subtle hardly detectable weather phenomenon that may be a pre-requisite for a colder winter. Any and all help with this project from some of you regulars would be more than welcome. Actually Glenn, you will discover when you study the history of meteorology that it was invented by astrologers and that long-range astronomic forecasting has been around for many centuries. Many assumptions are made by those unfamiliar with long-range forecasting, but it has been around for a very long time. The best way to learn is to obtain a scientific astronomic ephemeris (a calendar) and learn how to read it while noting climate and weather conditions. Everyone - from royalty, navigators, farmers and tradesmen, doctors, etc., depended on long-range forecasting and it was successful because you will note that geography expanded worldwide over the centuries. That did not happen by accident. Some people today take it for granted because they have been led into complacent thinking by modern conveniences, but that history is very young, as we've only had 100+ years of technological communications for weather forecasting - much of it in the short-range. That does not allow for proper planning over extended periods of time. Weather-lore, as it is called, is simply observation of the natural world, which gives signs to the keen observer of what seasonal conditions may or may not be just ahead. Study of nature's signs along with long-range forecasts were (and still are) essential for farmers to observe. Long-range forecasting has much better and more accurate successes than conventional climatology and meteorology, which does not perform seasonal and yearly forecasting because the only way to do this is by astronomic means. |
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Post by neilhamp on Sept 10, 2011 18:04:23 GMT
Wow! Astromet you seem very confident regarding the forthcoming solar maximum.
"It has been my forecast that the Sun will be in maximum through to about 2015-2017."
Most forcasts suggest 2013-2014. We can only wait to see if you are right. I decided to take a copy for future reference. You still haven't said if the maximum will exceed 65.
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 10, 2011 18:07:42 GMT
Here is a link to the Old Farmers Almanac's forcast for my geographical area. It indicates a cold September/October with early snow. I am on pins and needles as the potatoes won't be ready to harvest for 2 more weeks. The threat of a hard freeze to these vegtables.....makes me shudder. I will just have to continue to work hard, and harvest hard when the skin set is firm enough to do so. The economic loss of a hard freeze is hundreds of millions of dollars in my area. Thanks for the link. As a farmer do you put any faith weatherlore? Wooly Worms, Spider web height in trees etc? and their ability to forecast seasonal weather? I hope the weather cooperates with your harvest. Hopefully you have mineral rights on your land because I here that drilling in North Dakota has gone crazy with the Bakken Shale boom. Good luck and thanks for your impute.[/quote] Glenn: No oil on the eastern side of the state. 1. Rain before 7, quit before 11. 2. Full moon, there is a correlation between frost and full moon. Usually, if you can get past a full moon without a frost, you are safe for the moon cycle. This came to me from my grandmother. 3. Acorns. IF there are a lot of acorns, as a rule it will be a hard winter. I don't know why, but through my life this has been a pretty well definced metric that seems to work out. 4. All signs fail in times of drought. 5. The crecent on the 1/4/1/3 moon. IF the water will slide out of the bowl, the change for a wetter moon cycle is increased. IF the water would sit in the crecent, then that cycle will be dry. Just a few old analogies. |
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 10, 2011 18:31:18 GMT
Astromet, thanks one of the chapters in my book is going to brief, basic overview on some of the astronomical signs used by fishermen and farmers to help predict the weather. My main concerns are that much of the knowledge has been lost as much of it was never recorded and just passed on by word of mouth.
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 10, 2011 18:38:15 GMT
Sigurdur, Thanks for the analogies. I have read hundreds of weather lore tales but never the one about 1/4 or 1/3 crescent moon.
I can vouch for all the signs failing in time of drought. Down here in Texas the drought is so extreme nature seems to be in an eerie silence. Signs I have noticed for years are almost completely absent this year.
Thanks, for your help
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 10, 2011 19:23:36 GMT
Astromet, thanks one of the chapters in my book is going to brief, basic overview on some of the astronomical signs used by fishermen and farmers to help predict the weather. My main concerns are that much of the knowledge has been lost as much of it was never recorded and just passed on by word of mouth. Hi Glenn, In reality, you will find much of the knowledge written down, especially in Astrological Almanacs from Europe and the United States, as this is the place where many forecasts were printed and distributed. There's Old Moore's Almanac -> en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Moore's_Almanack Benjamin Franklin's Poor Richard's Almanac -> www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/FOS_Farmers%20Almanac.pdfBruce Scofield's paper,"A History and Test of Planetary Weather Forecasting" (2010) contains interesting data that may be of interest for you ~ Abstract -"A unique methodology for forecasting weather based on geocentric planetary alignments originated in ancient Mesopotamia. The method, called Astrometeorology, was further developed by Greek, Arab, and Renaissance scientists including Ptolemy, Al-Kindi, Tycho Brahe and Joannes Kepler.
A major 17th century effort to test the method in a Baconian fashion was made by John Goad. Building on the ideas of Kepler and Goad, I test an isolated component of the method, specifically a correlation between geocentric Sun-Saturn alignments and cold temperatures, using modern daily temperature data from New England, Central England, Prague and other locations.
My hypothesis states there is a correlation, shown in daily temperature records, between cooling trends in specific regions and the geocentric alignments of the Sun and the planet Saturn.
The hypothesis is supported by a number of tests that show lower temperatures on days when Sun-Saturn alignments occur, especially when near the equinoxes.
The astronomy of this positioning suggests that tidal forces on the atmosphere may be part of a mechanism that would explain this effect.
The abandonment of planetary weather forecasting by the intellectual elite in 16th and 17th century Europe is next organized as a history and discussion.
In the final section, applications of the methodology to climate cycles is explored, particularly in regard to a 1536-year recurring cycle of outer planets and a cycle of similar length found in climate records.
In addition, an account of biological processes that are structured around astronomical cycles is presented."
One of the problems with conventional meteorology and climatology is that they desire to perform such forecasting, but without following the laws of planetary physics and operation that force the Earth's climate. This is why centers like NOAA and other international climate bodies are unable to do seasonal forecasting, much less year-over-year long-range forecasting. They do not follow the laws that obviously force the world's climate. Much of this is ideological, but ideology does not successful forecast because it is based on uninformed opinion and violates the laws of physics. What is most curious is that weather prophecy, what is called meteorology and climate science today, was invented by astrologers, which is the reason why conventional forecasters are in denial and cannot forecast outside of 10 days. Space weather science is still in its infancy, but continues to gradually confirm the principles of Astrometeorology. By the time conventional mets and climatologists catch up, the current generation and those who were trained in conventional methods will again be left far behind. This is seen in their very poor forecasting abilities, despite wanting to be able to do just that - forecast in advance. The ideological conflicts and bias from those who are unable to forecast has been one barrier to the proper understanding of variable mathematical astronomical climate/weather forecasting - so you will find very few qualified long-range forecasters in the world because of the ideology and resistance to being open not to "new ideas" but the very origins of the practice of meteorology. What I am saying here is the most climatologists and meteorologists desire to be ignorant of the past - not the future - because they are in philosophical and moral objections to the use of what is called 'astrology' - a term that the great majority misunderstand and do not know the meaning. Rather, conventional mets and climatologists would rather pretend that the past did not exist, so that they then can attempt to 'replace' it with their ideological biases. However, the laws of thermodynamics and physics do not care for ideology. It is a silly notion to even consider that the laws of planetary physics would change themselves because of moral objections to the science of astrological forecasting. The forcing of the Earth's climate and regulation of its weather by astronomic means is a law that cannot be altered by opinion, ideology or ignorance. Until the conventional pseudo-forecasters turn away from their ideology and blindness to the past, and the physical laws of nature, they will never be able to forecast medium and long-range climate and weather in advance. A History And Test Of Planetary Weather Forecasting -> scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1235&context=open_access_dissertations |
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Post by commonsense on Sept 10, 2011 22:26:16 GMT
A few fishermen still go out for long periods and distances from port, sometimes weeks from port (though generally a lot less than bygone days when speed was connected to winds), so you might want to consider that in your selection criteria.
The percentage of catch by factory ships is growing rapidly. They stay out for extended periods as their catch is frozen or canned immediately and at sea. People like what they do as the to-market freshness is far superior to what one can get from a traditional fishing vessel - excluding the home port, of course. My guess is that the factory ships almost exclusively rely on modern weather forecasting for guidance. I would also guess that smaller boats utilize modern weather forecasting almost exclusively as well, as modern forecasts are nearly completely accurate over the course of a single day. |
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Post by commonsense on Sept 10, 2011 23:02:39 GMT
How does that success rate compare to other long range meteorological forecast? I am merely suggesting accuracy could be quite subjective in this case. Long range forecasts generally suck. The Farmer's almanac and Astromet are about as accurate as a coin toss. They show no skill at all. The "modern" computer-based forecasters do little better. Note that the Met Office in the UK pulled their long range forecasts when it became apparent that they just didn't have the "stuff" to predict weather far in advance. The big point is that the modern forecasters are continually getting better, while Astromet and the Farmer's Almanac will continue to rely on fuzzily-worded prognostications that aren't specific enough to be easily falsified. That's why the study on the Farmer's Almanac limited itself to big picture predictions, and why I limited my analysis of Astromet to big picture predictions like ENSO state and sunspots. Note that when Astromet does get specific, as in "2011 will be a strong El Nino year", he's often wrong. An objective look at his big-picture forecasts shows no skill at all. I find it very interesting that Ice and Sig both came out in support of Astro. I suppose that is to be expected of science skeptics. They'd far more like to follow witchcraft and folklore than modern science. Of course, perhaps there is something to be said for that. Folklore does have a reasonable track record for one-day forecasting, for example. However, modern science has gone far beyond that. Scientists can forecast three days in advance extremely accurately, a far better result than any traditional technique. One good issue is earthquakes. As Steve pointed out, Astromet predicted a big quake for southern California that didn't pan out. Who knows how many other failed earthquake predictions Astro made. But make enough earthquake predictions and you'll get a hit, as evidenced by Astro's hit with the Japanese earthquake. Does that show skill? I doubt it, but others would disagree. I will give Astromet credit for really trying. Unfortunately, it is likely that the tools he's using just don't work. It is likely that scientists will get better at predicting ENSO states (they've made great strides in the last few years already), and so will likely become useful pretty soon with regard to long-range weather forecasting. However, the chaos in the system may be too great to make that possible. We'll find out, I suppose. Anyway, until then, you can just pick whichever hand-waving prognosticator you want to follow. It's a crapshoot. The BIG point is that the weather is governed by chaos, and chaos by definition resists forecasting very far in advance. |
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Post by icefisher on Sept 10, 2011 23:26:18 GMT
icefisher, Thanks for your imput. Fishermen are more in tune with daily and weekly weather and much of the folklore from them is lost. Sonar, Fishfinders, Radar and other modern electronics has taken much of the need for lore out of the equation.
Indeed a lot has been lost. Fish managers work hard to try to get the old timers to pass along their knowledge. Absolutely none of the stuff you mention above was available at all to fishermen until after WWII. Then it still took 20 years for it to get popular. When I got involved in the early 60's still there were very few choices and almost all of what was available was military surplus. All of the new technology that was available was beyond the means of almost all fishermen.
Part of the reason I am writing the book is to try and capture some of this knowledge from the "old-timers" who pre-date all of our modern technology before much of it is lost.
Good luck in your endeavor! It is really needed. There are old timers still but they are going fast.
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 10, 2011 23:42:22 GMT
How does that success rate compare to other long range meteorological forecast? I am merely suggesting accuracy could be quite subjective in this case. Long range forecasts generally suck. The Farmer's almanac and Astromet are about as accurate as a coin toss. They show no skill at all. The "modern" computer-based forecasters do little better. Note that the Met Office in the UK pulled their long range forecasts when it became apparent that they just didn't have the "stuff" to predict weather far in advance. The big point is that the modern forecasters are continually getting better, while Astromet and the Farmer's Almanac will continue to rely on fuzzily-worded prognostications that aren't specific enough to be easily falsified. That's why the study on the Farmer's Almanac limited itself to big picture predictions, and why I limited my analysis of Astromet to big picture predictions like ENSO state and sunspots. Note that when Astromet does get specific, as in "2011 will be a strong El Nino year", he's often wrong. An objective look at his big-picture forecasts shows no skill at all. I find it very interesting that Ice and Sig both came out in support of Astro. I suppose that is to be expected of science skeptics. They'd far more like to follow witchcraft and folklore than modern science. Of course, perhaps there is something to be said for that. Folklore does have a reasonable track record for one-day forecasting, for example. However, modern science has gone far beyond that. Scientists can forecast three days in advance extremely accurately, a far better result than any traditional technique. One good issue is earthquakes. As Steve pointed out, Astromet predicted a big quake for southern California that didn't pan out. Who knows how many other failed earthquake predictions Astro made. But make enough earthquake predictions and you'll get a hit, as evidenced by Astro's hit with the Japanese earthquake. Does that show skill? I doubt it, but others would disagree. I will give Astromet credit for really trying. Unfortunately, it is likely that the tools he's using just don't work. It is likely that scientists will get better at predicting ENSO states (they've made great strides in the last few years already), and so will likely become useful pretty soon with regard to long-range weather forecasting. However, the chaos in the system may be too great to make that possible. We'll find out, I suppose. Anyway, until then, you can just pick whichever hand-waving prognosticator you want to follow. It's a crapshoot. The BIG point is that the weather is governed by chaos, and chaos by definition resists forecasting very far in advance. Total hot air from you and completely untrue. The fact really is that the subject matter of astronomic forecasting is too complex for you to handle common sense. So, it is much easier for you to sound off as a baffoon, which is sad to say the least, because with much less opining and more intelligence, you might actually increase your IQ by learning. There are no shortcuts. I could care less if you did not like my Japan Earthquake forecast, or my ENSO forecast. Appeals to emotion based on your "belief system" does not make astrological forecasting any less true. I have forecasted many things you have not heard of, and when my public forecasts come true, or not, does not give you the right to dismiss them outright. Who are you? Science always notices many things and it takes time to fit the pieces into the overall puzzle. Sometimes it takes months, years for some and centuries for the lower IQs among us. However, the narrow-minded swallowers of paradigms-that-they-are-taught-to-ignore who poo poo anything they surely have not studied or possess by skill only make fools out of themselves. As for your hostility, that is immature and infantile for a person of your age. So we can assume that there are personal issues you have. Nonetheless, it is inappropriate for this forum and for science as well. There is no common sense or logical rhetoric coming from you - just simply opinion. This clearly shows how ignorant you are, or, decide to showcase for all to see. Why would you behave in such a manner? Anonymously of course - under the odd name of "common sense" which shows cowardice since you do not feel comfortable actually being who you are while making your case without hiding behind such silliness Steve? Facts of the Climate & Weather - The weather is not governed by 'chaos,' - if that were true then you would not have any clear, sunny days at all, and there would be no seasons whatsoever, but, somehow, under this 'chaos" the same seasons return year after year? How is that "chaotic?" Please, you clearly do not have both oars in the water. Quoting from Scofield's paper ~ "German judge and scientist Theodor Landscheit, who defended Astrology from the 1970’s until his death in 2004, correlated climate patterns with the movement of the solar system’s barycenter, which itself is modulated by planetary cycles.
He viewed the Sun and planets together as an intricate “organism” regulated by complex feedback loops.
The Sun, making the planets revolve around itself, is in turn influenced by the planets which make it revolve around the center of mass (barycenter) of the entire system.
These complex movements stimulate solar activity which influences the Earth’s atmosphere via the solar wind.
Landscheidt’s work is related to that of scientists Rhodes Fairbridge and John Sanders, who have also stressed the importance of planetary patterns in determining the Sun’s
motion with respect to the barycenter and the corresponding effects on the Earth.
During the 1980’s and 1990’s English astronomer Percy Seymour argued that planetary alignments affect the magnetic properties of the Sun, and also may directly affect the Earth’s magnetic field.
In this regard he has suggested that very small gravitational forces can produce very large effects on magnetic fields and has proposed a theory of magnetotidal resonance.
The argument of my thesis is essentially that Natural Astrology has a long history, was a contributing factor in the scientific revolution, with the right approach can be investigated
scientifically - and it still exists.
Further, I argue that the subject holds a "space" of its own – while it incorporates material and methodologies from Astronomy, Meteorology, Geology, and many related sub-disciplines, it organizes geocosmic studies into one category instead of many.
The 155-subject matter of this field [Astrometeorology] are dynamic natural systems and dissipative structures such as magnetic fields (solar and terrestrial), the atmosphere (weather and climate) and the biosphere (biological cycles), all of which lend themselves to a non-linear scientific approach.
Such a subject matter is not easily quantified using classical reductionist scientific methodologies and should be examined in the light of emerging scientific paradigms – systems, chaos and complexity.
Again, this is surely one reason for the decline of astrology during the rise of Newtonian science – the subject is inherently too complex for reductionist investigation.
If one defines Natural Astrology as the study of correlations between astronomical forcing and processes on, but not limited to, the Earth system, it appears to me that a kind of natural astrology exists within the scientific community.
In today’s geoscience and climatology, correlations between the orbital cycles of the Earth and various geological and climatological phenomena have relatively recently become accepted as a primary mechanism for climate change and also as a means of establishing a chronology.
Tidal forces have long explained marine and atmospheric phenomena and are now seen as a force that keeps planetary moons like Europa, Io and Enceladus geologically active.
Also, correlations between solar cycles and geophysical phenomena are likewise considered legitimate study areas. I
argue that these topics are examples of a modern natural astrology."Now, one the problems you have is most likely that you are a reductionist linear thinker who comes from an ideological base where "randomness" rules - this, despite the fact that all the great scientists known to humanity, Ptolemy, Kepler, Newton, Einstein, etc., among many others - have proved otherwise. I do not understand why you comment as if the Earth is flat and is not a planet. Not only do you rarely if ever talk of the Sun - the driver of our world's climate system - but you behave as if the Sun does not exist in the way you comment. It's odd, frankly, it is too weird. So common sense, either you are joking with this crap (which isn't funny when you really think about it) or you are biased to the extreme with set, fixed, uninformed opinions that go against all of the laws of the physical world. The fact that you go on about AGW, which has been proven to be mathematically impossible on Earth as it violates the laws of physics and thermodynamics is proof positive that you, well, just simply do not know what you are talking about. The real question is, are you being dysfunctional and maladaptive on purpose - simply for show - or is this a real emotional condition that you require help to resolve? Either way, your behavior is inappropriate for this platform because Science is about exploration and discovery - not for mouthing off and citing your opinion as fact, nor for demeaning the skill set of others which you are no knowledgeable. Actually, you are making a fool out of yourself. People are already scrolling past your posts because they know what to expect from you. You are much better off keeping opinion to yourself while spending the majority of your time studying that which you do not know. Again, that is how you learn common sense. Why are you adverse to learning? Or, have you decided somehow that you know all that there is to know? That is hubris and arrogance my friend, and at your age, you should know better. |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 10, 2011 23:57:59 GMT
Astromet, thanks one of the chapters in my book is going to brief, basic overview on some of the astronomical signs used by fishermen and farmers to help predict the weather. My main concerns are that much of the knowledge has been lost as much of it was never recorded and just passed on by word of mouth. I would be interested in reading your book once it is completed Glenn. If you need any additional materials to help, please feel free to ask and I will see what I can do to assist you. |
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Post by neilhamp on Sept 11, 2011 6:24:58 GMT
Commonsense,
I hope you noticed Astromet's precise predictions regarding the current solar maximum
It will not reach its peak until 2015-17.
Most other forcasts suggest 2013-14 and by 2016 the cycle should be well into decline
If Astromet has got this one right we should all listen to him more often
He has not given any estimate of the peak value other than the claim that it will be super-active
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Post by steve on Sept 11, 2011 12:01:31 GMT
commonsense
Not entirely true. The Met Office still generate seasonal forecasts but they pulled their publication on the basis that they are useless to most people in the UK and are hugely embarrassing when the lower probability event (according the the model ensemble) happens.
They show more skill in some parts of the world, but really they need to be run at much higher resolution and have better input data. Still, you have to start some where.
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