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Post by AstroMet on Sept 20, 2011 1:24:36 GMT
Astromet: You wrote "It is my forecast that we will see winter arrive early this year to the Northern Hemisphere" I read your post after reading this weather statement earlier in the morning it seems we are off to an early start to winter in the PNW www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/That's correct Codetalker. I've been saying this for months now, since according to my astronomic forecast this winter will arrive earlier than normal. We should see snowfalls at higher elevations in the northern hemisphere this month. And more to come in October 2011 as well. This winter will extend because of the colder fall season, but will ultimately be a short traditional winter more or less over by February with signs of an early spring in February as well. So, the chilly air of October, November and December will constitute the bulk of winter. January is a transition month with February-type weather then February starts to feel more like March, and March will feel more like April. An early spring in 2012. |
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Post by codetalker on Sept 22, 2011 14:14:07 GMT
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Post by handyman on Sept 23, 2011 0:42:48 GMT
So, can I infer that the abbreviated (yet harsh) winter is going to be the result of an expected "waking up" of the sun over the next few months? Are you expecting the average sunspot number to increase significantly by early next year? |
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Post by handyman on Sept 23, 2011 3:21:24 GMT
For the love Riley...Let's keep deities out of this forum! Yep no sense in trying to predict what God is going to do! If he decides to turn us into stone he is going to just go off and do it like right now. . . .SNAP! Instant granite! You guys crack me up. |
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Post by codetalker on Sept 23, 2011 18:21:31 GMT
Interesting exchange I heard on the radio yesterday. I was listening to a discussion about the weather satellite falling back to earth and the expert being interviewed said NASA is not able to positively identify where it will hit because the sun causes variations in the atmosphere which in turn will effect the trajectory. I immediately thought of this forum and the discussions I've read about effects the sun has on the earth.
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 24, 2011 1:29:30 GMT
So, can I infer that the abbreviated (yet harsh) winter is going to be the result of an expected "waking up" of the sun over the next few months? Are you expecting the average sunspot number to increase significantly by early next year? No, you cannot 'infer' that. Nor did I say that the coming winter was going to be 'harsh' either. Those are your words, not mine. I said I expect winter 2012 to arrive early. I also expect spring 2012 to be early, and warmer than normal. As for increasing sunspots - This is something which has been ongoing since 2009, 2010 and that continues into this year. A solar maximum is on its way, and has been expected, so of course sunspot numbers would naturally increase. You will understand astronomic forecasts if you just read them, observe the world's climate and weather. More observing, much less inferring, thank you very much. |
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 24, 2011 1:41:44 GMT
I don't know how to read astromnomical charts. But remember when I said the sky was the color that we were going to get a back to back La Nina? And the temp signatures etc.....well folks.....for whatever it is worth.....sure looks like back to backs.
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Sept 25, 2011 7:47:11 GMT
When you say an early winter are you referring the the populations on the eastern side of the continent, Because Winter is a speck compare to the weather in the west. That Texas heat now extends its way at times well into Canada, A normally crisp September day and it's sweltering in the 80s and 90s. I dare say hot and humid in the Pacific northwest. Almost tropical, right down to the "tropical downpours". Though I do myself predict a severe winter(mild to start, but ending extremely cold), but it will be a late winter in the west. Likely beginning with a blizzard with several feet of snow. Spring I feel will be late and cold in the west. Summer 2012 will see the heat come with a vengeance, From New Mexico to the Yukon, the heat will dominate the west. Areas that spent 2010 and 2011 underwater could go right back to drought conditions. These wild shifts will only get worse.
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Post by handyman on Sept 26, 2011 20:57:35 GMT
So, can I infer that the abbreviated (yet harsh) winter is going to be the result of an expected "waking up" of the sun over the next few months? Are you expecting the average sunspot number to increase significantly by early next year? No, you cannot 'infer' that. Nor did I say that the coming winter was going to be 'harsh' either. Those are your words, not mine. You will understand astronomic forecasts if you just read them, observe the world's climate and weather. More observing, much less inferring, thank you very much. Yes, my words, based on reading your various predictions. Trying to absorb and learn from all this. The observation continues, though much of what you have predicted over the past year has similarly come to pass. You have said that you expect this solar maximum to be one for the record books. Is that going to be by the peak of the coming maximum (sunspot numbers/flares released), by extremes in the weather patterns observed on earth, or both? Certainly, I can see that the stage is set, should the sun have some kind of grand maximum while most are expecting it's going to be a dud (sunspot # average around 70-80), and the weather down here certainly continues to make its case. |
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 28, 2011 4:27:50 GMT
No, you cannot 'infer' that. Nor did I say that the coming winter was going to be 'harsh' either. Those are your words, not mine. You will understand astronomic forecasts if you just read them, observe the world's climate and weather. More observing, much less inferring, thank you very much. Yes, my words, based on reading your various predictions. Trying to absorb and learn from all this. The observation continues, though much of what you have predicted over the past year has similarly come to pass. You have said that you expect this solar maximum to be one for the record books. Is that going to be by the peak of the coming maximum (sunspot numbers/flares released), by extremes in the weather patterns observed on earth, or both? Certainly, I can see that the stage is set, should the sun have some kind of grand maximum while most are expecting it's going to be a dud (sunspot # average around 70-80), and the weather down here certainly continues to make its case. I see. Well, it is important to state what I've actually said rather than to infer. Too many people take it upon themselves to say things I never forecasted and I have to remind them not to put words into my mouth. I've forecasted a solar maximum to come several years ago in my long-range outlooks and my forecast has not changed as I expect this solar maximum to be quite strong into the middle-years of this decade. I can't speak for those who say that it will be a 'dud' because in reality there are few true forecasters in the world today. Most are trying to hit one big because they want to make names for themselves, which is quite prevalent in these ideological and greedy times; however there are but few true forecasters who care little for ego, name and career building. I've often repeated my forecast that we are in the last six or so years of solar-forced global warming and that these remaining years will end with a bang, not a whimper. This means a strong solar maximum, which I continue to stand by. |
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Oct 6, 2011 1:23:33 GMT
Astromet, does this mean that you are standing by your prediction that we will not see La Nina reemerge this fall? I'm just wondering how that is working out for you? Considering the fact that the fall season in the northern hemisphere is a month away and not here yet, I'm just wondering if you can read a calendar. We are past the worst of the 2009-2011 ENSO. You can play with 'products' from models all you want, but the fact remains that until you open your eyes to the natural world - that is the real world of climate and weather - you're only going to continue to fail to get both your oars in the water and all 52 cards in your deck. This is why I am so stringent on taking conventional 'forecast models' at more than just an arm's length. Those calling for another full-blown La Niña is not confirmed. If you look at what they are saying with the so-called 'forecast models' you will note that it is all uncertain and quite mixed. The majority of them are only "suggesting a double-dip La Niña," but they are not forecasting. They are waiting for "additional data before increasing the odds of a return to La Niña." Translated it Means This - All 22 major climate centers, including NOAA did not forecast this ENSO, nor have they scored above 10% in their seasonal forecasts stretching over the last decade. The modelers continue to confuse their research with forecasting - these are not the same. Moreover, since they did not predict the recent 2009-2011 ENSO, nor the arrival of La Nina on the back of El Nino, nor did they forecast the strength of ENSO when it was apparent to all that it had arrived in mid-2009 - they are now wishcasting La Nina to return. This, when even most of their 'models' show a return to neutral La Nina values you continue to have 'forecasters' who depend wholly on them guessing. That's not forecasting. Again, since I was the only forecaster who forecasted ENSO before it arrived I think I might have a decent idea as to when ENSO is over don't you think? I continue to state that the worst of the recent ENSO is past us. We will not see another significant ENSO until after 2017 according to my long-range astronomic calculations. Hey Astromet, It is time for you to eat some crow. I don't mind that your predictions have been so far wrong as to be laughable. But those of us on this thread that have had to listen to endless rants on your part as to how good a forecaster you were, and endure abuse when your forecasts where questioned. It is time to come down from your high horse and apologize to those of us you have abused. You were wrong. You were rude. And you need to admit these things. La Nina conditions are present. They will strengthen. And they will be confirmed. You are on the record assuring many people that you know what you were talking about and that we would see ENSO neutral conditions this fall. Because for the past 6 months you have been predicting ENSO neutral this fall. Everyone that questioned your forecast was forced to endure a rant about your meteorological prowess. Your forecasts were wrong. Time to come clean. |
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Post by codetalker on Oct 6, 2011 14:30:43 GMT
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Oct 6, 2011 18:49:20 GMT
Codetalker
Just a moment. (Jumps in joy, someone actually wants to talk about the current ENSO...)
Sorry about that, could not resist.
First things first we need to make sure what we are talking about. The first link to the Bellingham Herald is probably discussing the EFFECTS of a La Niña in the Washington State region. This is consistent with recent information I have seen regarding current predictions. Insert a lot legalese here because I don't know what is going to happen, and there are a lot of differing opinions. Here are a few items to think about...
1. Expect a moderate to strong La Niña for winter 2011-2012.
2. Forecasters I respect indicate that the more severe weather impacts will move further east this year and focus on the western great lakes area. (Note: I am on the record thinking that these impacts would be farther west say from Coeur d'Alene, Idaho to Vancouver, BC but I could be wrong.) If this is the case then the Bellingham area might have a weaker La Niña impact.
3. Joe's article is nine months old and is a general prediction about La Niña's effects on winter temperatures for all of the U.S. for the following several years, the Bellingham article is specific about this winter for the local area from today.
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Post by codetalker on Oct 7, 2011 15:07:59 GMT
The local papers have been publishing telling folks to get ready for winter. Puget sound energy has come out asking the same. seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2016387779_lanina03m.htmlseattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2013066838_winterbystorm04m.htmlThis independent site offers this forecast www.exactaweather.com/USA_Long_Range_Forecast.html"We expect North America and the Pacific Northwest region to experience a very severe winter, the Cascades snowpack is likely to see increased levels due to the negative (cold) phase of PDO. Our weather models are also showing an increased likelihood for major snow events in Northeastern and Midwestern parts of the US throughout December 2011 and January 2012, that could see severe blizzard conditions hit New York City and Chicago." All that said I would like a clarification? Is you speak of an ENSO is that saying a la Nina or El Nino event is possible? If you were to say a neutral ENSO is that saying equal chances of a La Nina or a El Nino? I've read the Wikipedia and that's what I made of it. |
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Oct 7, 2011 17:59:31 GMT
Ok, I'm not sure how much you know about ENSO, La Niña, El Niño. I am not a very good teacher but I think I can tackle part of this. Simply put ENSO is the name of a pattern of currents off west coast of South America that Scientists have identified as having a worldwide effect on the weather. El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO. La Niña is the cold phase. ENSO Neutral conditions occur when ENSO is in between the two extremes. Here is a link to a graph. www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/teleconnections/eln-5-pg.gif The PDO is a whole different animal. If you are interested I will post what I think about that, but honestly what I think about the PDO is probably not mainstream. :-) 1. NOAA is predicting a weak to moderate La Niña this winter. La Niña conditions are already occurring. 2. I think there will be a moderate to strong La Niña for winter 2011-2012. 3. As for Seattle area affects. I don't know for sure, but I used to live in Tacoma (86, 87) right down the road, and if Seattle does get snow and cold, the roads become impassible. Plan on that. |
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