|
|
Post by icefisher on Sept 15, 2011 19:21:25 GMT
For the love Riley...Let's keep deities out of this forum! Yep no sense in trying to predict what God is going to do! If he decides to turn us into stone he is going to just go off and do it like right now. . . .SNAP! Instant granite! |
|
|
|
Post by throttleup on Sept 15, 2011 19:28:43 GMT
For the love Riley...Let's keep deities out of this forum! Yep no sense in trying to predict what God is going to do! If he decides to turn us into stone he is going to just go off and do it like right now. . . .SNAP! Instant granite! Well, He already zapped Al Gore's brain into granite. Not to mention all those tuned in to his 24 Hour Climate Hilarity powerpoint screaming presentation. Although Miss Rhode Island 2006 was a nice touch! ;D |
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Sept 16, 2011 1:11:50 GMT
Handyman, I do not think this has anything to do with rapture. There are many natural cyclical climate patterns and oscillations like the AMO, PDO and ENSO that lead to natural warming and cooling. Since about 1980 for the most part we have had a "warm" PDO and a "warm" AMO which has probably helped contribute to the warm cycle we have been in. These patterns are starting to change, the PDO has turned negative and the AMO is probably five years or so away from turning negative as well which will probably lead to global cooling. The switch from warming to cooling is not an easy transition. The tornado outbreaks occur because of warm air flowing from the gulf meets cold air from northern latitudes. The clash can become very violent. Now imagine that on a global scale when a very warm earth due to natural cycles starts to cool. The clashes are bigger and more violent. We have decent records of the violent transition from the medieval warm period into the little ice age and the turbulent weather that was a prelude to the little ice age. Apparently there is a increase in extremes during such regime changes. More severe droughts, floods, heat waves, cold spells and blizzards. So one could with some accuracy say that the crazy worldwide weather we have seen the last several years is the beginning of a change in overall temperature and precipitation patterns. Then again it just may be crazy weather. That being said, again, all is astronomically-forced - all climate and weather are forced by the revolutions of celestial bodies - including ENSO. The Earth's climate cycles of global warming and global cooling are forced from space - driven by the Sun. Despite NOAA jumping to conclusions about La Nina's return, I remind people that NOAA did not forecast ENSO to begin with and that it is much too early to state La Nina will return, even though the U.S. National Weather Science's Climate Prediction Center did just that last week by means of their models, some which contradict each other. However, according to my estimation we are past the worst of La Nina, though the effects of ENSO will continue to be felt in some regions this year and into next for southern latitude regions, where drought is the main threat. It is my forecast that we will see winter arrive early this year to the Northern Hemisphere, but it will be a brief winter season which will give way to an early spring 2012 that will be warmer-than average. I also expect 2012 to be warmer-than-average as well straight into next autumn which is an Indian Summer. This will give farmers the extended growth season they need next year that has been cut short in the last 2-3 years by cooler-than-average temperatures and wetter climate conditions, particularly at the more northern latitudes of the hemisphere. |
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Sept 16, 2011 4:06:27 GMT
astromet:
Once again, I can only suggest that you follow NOAA and La Nina. They have done a good job since they switched the model to a cooling trend. I will freely admit that the rest of the IRI models are all wet.
The current La Nina phase is not expected to be as deep as the past phase.
I will remind you of a saying my grandmother gave me. ALL signs fail in times of drought. Extrapolate this on a larger scale. Nothing is absolute in this world. Even the sun and planets are not absolute in the response to certain forces. This is because as of yet we do not KNOW all of the forces.
|
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Sept 16, 2011 5:03:20 GMT
astromet: Once again, I can only suggest that you follow NOAA and La Nina. They have done a good job since they switched the model to a cooling trend. I will freely admit that the rest of the IRI models are all wet. The current La Nina phase is not expected to be as deep as the past phase. I will remind you of a saying my grandmother gave me. ALL signs fail in times of drought. Extrapolate this on a larger scale. Nothing is absolute in this world. Even the sun and planets are not absolute in the response to certain forces. This is because as of yet we do not KNOW all of the forces. Well, I don't know what you mean by 'absolute' however, you can speak for yourself, but not for everyone as a monolithic group. I always find it curious that some would believe such things as if we all are somehow on the same page because obviously, with the bullshit of AGW there are many who do not have a clue about even the basic principles of the Earth's climate. As for NOAA, I am well-versed in their methodologies and know that they are unable to perform seasonal forecasting so I fail to see how they would be able to forecast an ENSO, which they have not done a single time yet. Moreover, I remind you again that even during the onset of La Nina, when it was obvious that it was here, that NOAA could not forecast the depth of the event. All signs do not fail in times of drought. They can, and have been forecasted, well in advance. We do not live in the stone age, and there are forecasters out here in the world who have, and will continue to forecast well in advance of climate conditions to come. |
|
|
|
Post by codetalker on Sept 16, 2011 15:02:27 GMT
Astromet: You wrote "It is my forecast that we will see winter arrive early this year to the Northern Hemisphere" I read your post after reading this weather statement earlier in the morning it seems we are off to an early start to winter in the PNW www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/ |
|
|
|
Post by dontgetoutmuch on Sept 16, 2011 21:32:52 GMT
Awww Man, I live under one of the darker blue areas on the temp map! :-(
Imagine that, I worked my tail off this spring to lay in extra firewood. :-)
Of course I all ready burned half a cord in that last 30 days, and fall isn't even here yet. :-(
I don't think 5 cords will get it done this year. :-(
|
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Sept 16, 2011 23:05:52 GMT
sigurdur, I hope your getting your crops in OK. I have been in your fine state for the last week and I never thought I would be home sick for the warmth of Texas. I have been working in Lignite in the Northwest corner about 7 miles south of the Canadian border and it has been cold and blustery. I can only imagine how things are here in January. Do you have a fall in this state or does it just go straight into winter?
|
|
|
|
Post by codetalker on Sept 16, 2011 23:46:55 GMT
Best wishes to all the farmers. I would like to hear about what you're growing and what the crops are looking like (quality). Take Care.
|
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Sept 17, 2011 2:46:13 GMT
sigurdur, I hope your getting your crops in OK. I have been in your fine state for the last week and I never thought I would be home sick for the warmth of Texas. I have been working in Lignite in the Northwest corner about 7 miles south of the Canadian border and it has been cold and blustery. I can only imagine how things are here in January. Do you have a fall in this state or does it just go straight into winter? This is fall....  I hope you get the pleasure of staying here all winter. One does get used to cold, and then when it gets up to 32 degrees F, everyone is running around without jackets at all and thinks it is a heat wave. At times it does get a bit nippy tho. |
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Sept 17, 2011 2:50:12 GMT
Glennkoks:
Before you head south again, be sure you take a horseback ride in Theodore Roosevelt National Park. Another site to be sure and see is on the eastern side, I think it is called painted canyon. When the sun comes up.....it is marvelous to watch the colors materialize.
And another thing to remember.....you are on the warm side of the state....LOL.
Codetalker:
Thank you. Just thought of what your name means. I used to be able to send and recieve approx 65wpm of code......kinda rusty now but still not toooooo bad.
|
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Sept 17, 2011 3:43:02 GMT
Astromet: You wrote "It is my forecast that we will see winter arrive early this year to the Northern Hemisphere" I read your post after reading this weather statement earlier in the morning it seems we are off to an early start to winter in the PNW www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/It certainly will be chillier going into the autumn season with winter coming on the early side. However, it will be a brief winter this year for most of North America with spring earlier than normal and warmer as well. We will have a warmer spring, and a longer summer season in 2012 that will extend well into next autumn, an Indian summer in 2012. That's my brief long-range outlook. |
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Sept 19, 2011 1:29:07 GMT
Awww Man, I live under one of the darker blue areas on the temp map! :-( Imagine that, I worked my tail off this spring to lay in extra firewood. :-) Of course I all ready burned half a cord in that last 30 days, and fall isn't even here yet. :-( I don't think 5 cords will get it done this year. :-( You're probably right, and should get a bit more for your region in Alaska. Although we are past the worst of ENSO, as ocean temperatures flux, there will be pockets where the effects of La Nina will continue to be felt, particular northern latitudes like the PNW and Alaska and drought in southern latitudes, like Texas. Astronomic signals continue to show weak La Nina conditions in the Pacific Basin. Sea surface temperatures at the equatorial Pacific have fallen 0.5 degrees below average during the past month. The effect in the southern hemisphere countries like Australia for their coming spring season will experience reduced daytime temperatures because of increased cloud cover and rainfall. They will have another wet and cool spring, but not as bad as last year with minimal effects in places like western Australia, in the Tasmania region, into western Australia and the southern Australia and Victoria. In the northern hemisphere, the west coast of the U.S. will experience the same effects with a waning La Nina, with pockets of cooler air by means of cloud condensation should bring snow by early October and at higher elevations late September. |
|
|
|
Post by icefisher on Sept 19, 2011 15:20:16 GMT
The official NWS forecast is now:
La Niña conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific.
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have become increasingly negative in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean during the last several weeks
Atmospheric circulation anomalies are consistent with La Niña.
La Niña is expected to strengthen and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12.
The NCEP models are predicting a fairly strong La Nina with the IRI statistical models predicting a less strong La Nina
The Dynamic (GCM-based) Models continue to predict neutral conditions, led by the Jim Hansen controlled Cola CCSM3 model as the only model continuing to predict El Nino conditions by December with a full blown El Nino continuing into spring 2012.
I guess a single IPCC GCM can allow 14-year cooling trends within about 99 standard deviations but I seriously doubt the ensemble or Hansen's model can do it.
|
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Sept 19, 2011 18:13:11 GMT
The official NWS forecast is now: La Niña conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have become increasingly negative in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean during the last several weeks Atmospheric circulation anomalies are consistent with La Niña. La Niña is expected to strengthen and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12.The NCEP models are predicting a fairly strong La Nina with the IRI statistical models predicting a less strong La Nina The Dynamic (GCM-based) Models continue to predict neutral conditions, led by the Jim Hansen controlled Cola CCSM3 model as the only model continuing to predict El Nino conditions by December with a full blown El Nino continuing into spring 2012. I guess a single IPCC GCM can allow 14-year cooling trends within about 99 standard deviations but I seriously doubt the ensemble or Hansen's model can do it. I doubt any of their models can do it. These are measurements, but they should not be confused with forecasting, and that right there has always been the problem with the NCEP models, the IRI statistical models and Dynamic (GCM-based) Models - which conflict. The 2009-2011 ENSO caught all the climate centers off guard, so its not a surprise that they have been trying to make calls the ENSO which has been in process. We are past the worst of ENSO with the Sun waking up, so we will see weakening as ENSO translates as it does this time of year winding down the summer in the northern hemisphere. |
|
