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Post by socold on Oct 21, 2011 0:03:49 GMT
when has 3.4 ever gone below -3C?
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Post by hairball on Oct 21, 2011 0:30:00 GMT
when has 3.4 ever gone below -3C? In the year of our Lord 2008.  The ECHAM-5 General Circulation Model - as used by the prestigious IPCC - reckons it goes -4C every other year. And stays there for 6 months. |
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Post by socold on Oct 21, 2011 0:58:58 GMT
I think we want the PDF corrected one:  |
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Oct 21, 2011 1:32:03 GMT
Yes... A few thoughts...
1. I just can't see it falling off a cliff like that then remaining unchanged for months, especially since we are not seeing it 20 days into October. The free fall should be starting to show up by now and it hasn't.
2. It is clear that the most recent model runs are trending colder...
3. These runs usually have more "scatter" they are currently all playing nice.
So, what is going to happen? Are the models failing? (I mean more then usual) Are we looking down the throat of a very cold winter? Anyone care to guess if La Nina will hang on into Summer next year as the models suggest?
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
Posts: 54
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Oct 21, 2011 18:54:57 GMT
I've found La-nina here in Alberta is better off as strong as possible. The temp vs La-nina here is not exactly linear. With mild and moderate La-nina the temps drop at times below -40C during the winter. But with a strong La-nina things change. It's milder during a strong La-nina than a weaker one due to the very strong jet stream. Alberta is generally socked in cloud, fog, and heavy snow during a strong La-nina and thus the insulating factor of the clouds keeps things from dipping below -40C. Now as for La-nina during the summer. www.youtube.com/watch?v=E26J7mEGj34www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5cSx94vK6M&feature=relatedThats what La-nina does to our summers up here. La-nina summers of late have been muggy, sometimes hot. This of course means very severe thunderstorms. The last multi-year La-nina was 1998-2000 and during the summer of 2000 an F3 tornado killed 12 people here when it slammed into a crowded campground. www.youtube.com/watch?v=pw4atAxVDtMMy area also got hit with 4" hailstones in 1975 during yet another multi-year Enso event Multi El-nino seem to have the same effect. Edmonton got hit by an F4 tornado during the 1986-88 event. Though that could have been Madoki, and not a true el-nino The truth is I can't find too many devastating widespread storms Alberta outside of these extended Enso events. And we also know how La-nina ups the death and destruction in Tornado alley. I would almost say La-nina is more scary to me than El-nino. |
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s12a
New Member
Posts: 6 
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Post by s12a on Oct 22, 2011 17:54:08 GMT
I think we want the PDF corrected one: True, either that or the new CFSv2 forecast model introduced in March, which is supposedly better than CFS:  In doubt, at the moment I am saving images (for further use in animations, etc) from CFS, PDFcr-CFS and CFSv2. We'll see which one gets Nino SST anomalies better. |
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Post by throttleup on Oct 22, 2011 22:09:59 GMT
I think we want the PDF corrected one: True, either that or the new CFSv2 forecast model introduced in March, which is supposedly better than CFS: In doubt, at the moment I am saving images (for further use in animations, etc) from CFS, PDFcr-CFS and CFSv2. We'll see which one gets Nino SST anomalies better. s12a, That's sounds like a good idea. I look forward to your results... |
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Post by hairball on Oct 23, 2011 7:36:46 GMT
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Post by codetalker on Nov 1, 2011 16:23:19 GMT
Quick note. I never received a follow up email from CPC on how much snow to expect this season.
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Post by woodstove on Nov 1, 2011 16:58:12 GMT
Quick note. I never received a follow up email from CPC on how much snow to expect this season. I've had my first snowball fights of winter 2011-2012, following the October blizzard of 2011 (more of a minor snow event in Rhode Island), which I'm sure most of you heard about. The frozen battle began as my six-year-old daughter picked up a handful of snow, packed it, and said, "Bon appetit, Dad."  |
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Post by codetalker on Nov 9, 2011 6:40:28 GMT
Me thinks this board is dead...
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 9, 2011 13:18:33 GMT
Me thinks that the continued cooling has cooled of AGW.
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Post by magellan on Nov 9, 2011 13:30:37 GMT
Me thinks the Mullerittes shouldn't have canonized BEST before it was given 5 minutes of scrutiny.
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Post by throttleup on Nov 9, 2011 15:58:32 GMT
Me thinks it IS quiet...
Too quiet...
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Post by codetalker on Nov 9, 2011 15:59:04 GMT
What is a Mullerittes?? Google has no idea. Your search - Mullerittes - did not match any documents.
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