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Post by trbixler on Nov 9, 2011 19:37:05 GMT
If you think about it for ten years or so maybe it will best be noticed.
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 12, 2011 15:46:54 GMT
As forecasted, the recent ENSO, with El Nino followed by La Nina from 2009-2011 has set climate and weather records worldwide. 2011 is now known as the wettest year in nearly 200 years of record keeping in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. A large, wet low pressure system soaked the Northeast U.S. on Wednesday and early Thursday, bringing 2.31 inches of rain to the City of Brotherly Love. This brings 2011's precipitation total in Philadelphia to 62.26 inches and breaks the former precipitation record of 61.20 inches, set in 1867. In a normal year, Philadelphia receives about 40 inches. According to weather historians this is one of the most difficult city records to break, since rainfall records in Philadelphia go back to 1820. Moreover, dozens of major cities in the Ohio Valley and Northeast set new wettest year records, or are close to breaking them. This was due to precipitation from 2011's tremendous tornado season in April in May, along with the exceptionally heavy summer thunderstorm rains, combined with rains from Tropical Storm Lee and Hurricane Irene that soaked portions of at least 12 states with more than twenty inches above average during 2011. For more on the record year of weather, see -> www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/article.html?entrynum=53 |
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Post by woodstove on Dec 19, 2011 10:52:54 GMT
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Dec 20, 2011 18:52:29 GMT
As 2011 winds down, we are in the midst of a moderate La Niña and I find myself wondering what 2012 will bring...
Where I live La Niña is firmly in control, which if you don't live here sounds kind of weird, but what La Niña bings us here in Alaska is weather patterns that tend to get entrenched. For basically the exact calendar month of November we were stuck in a cold, "wet" pattern. We had near record amounts of snow, but since it was so cold the moisture content was low hence the "wet". As of the second of Dec we have been stuck in a windy, (5 storms so far with 100+ mph gusts) "wet", (it just keeps on snowing, I'm getting sick of snow.) and warm, pattern. (The warm is why it is still snowing, usually we are cold and clear by this time of the year.) All of this is typical La Niña weather for us... All I want for Christmas is a persistent warm sunny pattern. :-)
I expect the current La Niña to continue for at least the next three months or so, and stay in the moderate range, perhaps a little strengthening, but not all that much.
Of course attempting to forecast what will happen over the summer and into the fall has proven (as far as I can see) to be impossible from this far out, but I'm beginning to see a few things happen and not happen. Which is a weird way of putting it, but it is the way I am approaching the problem.
Usually, as the Northern Hemisphere heads into winter, (in two days, the 22nd this year) mother nature begins to position the pieces (leading indicators) that could show us what will be happening in 2012. (As far as ENSO goes anyway).
The SOI is heading North.
The EMI is heading South.
SSTs are heading North, but look a little odd, and frankly I'm not seeing as much heat in the western pacific as I would have expected to see by now... call it a shrug...
Hmmmm...
I'm just not seeing any sort of rebound setting up at this time... Could we be looking at a triple dip?
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Post by magellan on Dec 26, 2011 8:10:08 GMT
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Jan 7, 2012 0:55:46 GMT
Looks Chilly! I'm tired of chilly, I wish I had some missing heat. :-) |
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Post by woodstove on Jan 7, 2012 0:57:21 GMT
Nice looking negative PDO horseshoe there!
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 15, 2012 1:38:54 GMT
As 2011 winds down, we are in the midst of a moderate La Niña and I find myself wondering what 2012 will bring... Where I live La Niña is firmly in control, which if you don't live here sounds kind of weird, but what La Niña bings us here in Alaska is weather patterns that tend to get entrenched. For basically the exact calendar month of November we were stuck in a cold, "wet" pattern. We had near record amounts of snow, but since it was so cold the moisture content was low hence the "wet". As of the second of Dec we have been stuck in a windy, (5 storms so far with 100+ mph gusts) "wet", (it just keeps on snowing, I'm getting sick of snow.) and warm, pattern. (The warm is why it is still snowing, usually we are cold and clear by this time of the year.) All of this is typical La Niña weather for us... All I want for Christmas is a persistent warm sunny pattern. :-) I expect the current La Niña to continue for at least the next three months or so, and stay in the moderate range, perhaps a little strengthening, but not all that much. Of course attempting to forecast what will happen over the summer and into the fall has proven (as far as I can see) to be impossible from this far out, but I'm beginning to see a few things happen and not happen. Which is a weird way of putting it, but it is the way I am approaching the problem. Usually, as the Northern Hemisphere heads into winter, (in two days, the 22nd this year) mother nature begins to position the pieces (leading indicators) that could show us what will be happening in 2012. (As far as ENSO goes anyway). The SOI is heading North. The EMI is heading South. SSTs are heading North, but look a little odd, and frankly I'm not seeing as much heat in the western pacific as I would have expected to see by now... call it a shrug... Hmmmm... I'm just not seeing any sort of rebound setting up at this time... Could we be looking at a triple dip? It's not a La Nina, not as it was in 2011. With the exception of Alaska, which has been due for hard winter after several warm winters, this one winter is the best for that northern region. For most of the lower 48 states, this winter will be brief and not has heavy with precipitation as the winter seasons of 2010 and 2011. Last winter was La Nina-fueled. Moreover, my forecast has been for a brief winter of 2012 with an earlier than normal and warmer than average spring and summer 2012 to come. Astronomical configurations show a hot and dry year ahead for most of North America - very warm temperatures straight through 2012 and into 2013. |
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 21, 2012 23:49:57 GMT
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Post by AstroMet on Mar 28, 2012 8:21:40 GMT
Considering the fact that the fall season in the northern hemisphere is a month away and not here yet, I'm just wondering if you can read a calendar. We are past the worst of the 2009-2011 ENSO. You can play with 'products' from models all you want, but the fact remains that until you open your eyes to the natural world - that is the real world of climate and weather - you're only going to continue to fail to get both your oars in the water and all 52 cards in your deck. This is why I am so stringent on taking conventional 'forecast models' at more than just an arm's length. Those calling for another full-blown La Niña is not confirmed. If you look at what they are saying with the so-called 'forecast models' you will note that it is all uncertain and quite mixed. The majority of them are only "suggesting a double-dip La Niña," but they are not forecasting. They are waiting for "additional data before increasing the odds of a return to La Niña." Translated it Means This - All 22 major climate centers, including NOAA did not forecast this ENSO, nor have they scored above 10% in their seasonal forecasts stretching over the last decade. The modelers continue to confuse their research with forecasting - these are not the same. Moreover, since they did not predict the recent 2009-2011 ENSO, nor the arrival of La Nina on the back of El Nino, nor did they forecast the strength of ENSO when it was apparent to all that it had arrived in mid-2009 - they are now wishcasting La Nina to return. This, when even most of their 'models' show a return to neutral La Nina values you continue to have 'forecasters' who depend wholly on them guessing. That's not forecasting. Again, since I was the only forecaster who forecasted ENSO before it arrived I think I might have a decent idea as to when ENSO is over don't you think? I continue to state that the worst of the recent ENSO is past us. We will not see another significant ENSO until after 2017 according to my long-range astronomic calculations. Hey Astromet, It is time for you to eat some crow. I don't mind that your predictions have been so far wrong as to be laughable. But those of us on this thread that have had to listen to endless rants on your part as to how good a forecaster you were, and endure abuse when your forecasts where questioned. It is time to come down from your high horse and apologize to those of us you have abused. You were wrong. You were rude. And you need to admit these things. La Nina conditions are present. They will strengthen. And they will be confirmed. You are on the record assuring many people that you know what you were talking about and that we would see ENSO neutral conditions this fall. Because for the past 6 months you have been predicting ENSO neutral this fall. Everyone that questioned your forecast was forced to endure a rant about your meteorological prowess. Your forecasts were wrong. Time to come clean. I don't eat "crow." Some people never learn. Again, I forecasted that La Nina was waning and coming to an end. I also forecasted a mild winter for 2012 and an early spring with above average temperatures. We will continue to see above average temperatures in 2012 with dry conditions and high winds. Regarding La Nina, I told you so. How's that for 'coming clean?' La Nina is gone, as I forecasted -> www.businessweek.com/news/2012-03-27/la-nina-weather-pattern-is-dead-world-s-forecasters-say |
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Post by icefisher on Oct 7, 2012 17:11:32 GMT
June 12 ENSO forecast: Oct 7 ENSO forecast: Boy this is outside of normal ENSO modeling huh? Note the Oct 7 forecast for the first data point for October's average it is still decreasing almost daily the forecasts are run daily and this these charts are composites of the previous 10 days with the red lines being the oldest and the blue lines being the newest. I noticed this effect back in July when it became apparent sea ice loss was going to be great. A comparison of ENSO and Arctic ice shows a strong visual correlation. A big event occurred in 2007 that came on perhaps the La Nina cycle of ENSO leading to the deep cooling globally. Here it is occuring on the El Nino leg of the cycle and may not lead to as much global cooling but instead knocking the crap out of Hansen's El Nino driven temperature predictions. The theoretical basis of an almost immediate flow increase in thermal haline currents might be due to a cooling ocean in the arctic sucking water by gravity (as the ocean cools it shrinks) from the tropics with the cold dense water sinking and applying pressure on the back end of the currents. (since water is not compressible it has to move) What is driving this? During the warming phase of the PDO ice volume was probably increasing from more moisture in the air. When the PDO started to shift in the other direction in 1993-1995 thats when the ice started to measurably shrink. With the last five PDO cycles probably lasting between 32 and 33 years each (using Hadcrut temperature effects as a delayed proxy) ice could continue to shrink for another 12 to 15 years and it could be getting cooler all that time as well. Perhaps that portends up to another 50% reduction or so. If this is a bond event effect maybe we are just now nearing the peak warming of it but it does seem that it would be very difficult to estimate within a few hundred years where such a peak might exist.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 7, 2012 20:37:14 GMT
Well if this is an El Nino then it may have its gender wrong ...  A long streamer of cold water along the equator from Peru is a La Nina. I think that the Nino 3.4 method of assessing the existence of an El Nino or La Nina is failing in the cold PDO especially with the large areas of cold water left from the La Nina modoki No-one has watched the cold PDO via satellite before. All the rules of thumb are based on a warm PDO - things seem to be totally different in the cold. Let's hope this is just a return to the 1970's as Joe Bastardi is forecasting. If it is a Bond Event or a DO event then I may be grateful for being in Florida  |
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 7, 2012 22:47:49 GMT
nautonnier:
Hey....it can get cold in Florida as well.
Just bite the bullet and move north to God's country. That way you appreciate warmth more=so. Cause it can be a tad on the chilly side up here.
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Post by icefisher on Oct 7, 2012 23:38:39 GMT
If it is a Bond Event or a DO event then I may be grateful for being in Florida "Bond events" might take 750 years to materialize. A 1500 year cycle could well be how long the entire ocean system takes to cycle. The 70 year PDO cycle which appears capable of .7degC warming over 33 years may be just 1/4th of all the cycles that add up to a 1500 year cycle and might be just a shortterm harmonic, with each PDO cycle the system may be recharging more thoroughly for a deeper subsequent PDO cycle. To get to the maximum perhaps there needs to be an extended summer period with no ice in the arctic. Perhaps Tstat will jump in with some references to the underlying natural cooling he has suggested. Milankovitch cycles would not seem to be sufficient to explain the bond events as they might be 4 deg C or more and the Milankovich cycles seem to need about 50,000 years plus to half cycle. |
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Post by icefisher on Oct 7, 2012 23:48:15 GMT
the gulf stream runs pretty fast. ocean current oscillations are probably overwhelmed by annual variation shorter than the ENSO events. With a chaotic ocean and according to thermohaline current models the oldest water in the thermohaline loop is about 1,600 years, one might expect a few dominant oscillations, driven by winds and bathymetry when in fact the system is oscillating on all time scales based upon the size of the current loops.
A bond event may be simply an event that has all these oscillations lined up in one direction. It may take 800 years to see a cold bond event from when ever a warm one peaks.
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