*EL NINO/LA NINA FORECAST 2010-2011*

[hunter]

I think predictions like this are quite useless.

[AstroMet]

Jan 5, 2010 13:24:06 GMT hunter said:

I think predictions like this are quite useless.

You will note that it is a forecast, not a "prediction." As for being useless, if that is so, then perhaps you can do better? I would be pleased to hear you explain how medium & long-range foreknowledge of potential climate and weather conditions months ahead of time is "useless?"

[curiousgeorge]

Jan 5, 2010 13:43:52 GMT AstroMet said:

Jan 5, 2010 13:24:06 GMT hunter said:

I think predictions like this are quite useless.

You will note that it is a forecast, not a "prediction." As for being useless, if that is so, then perhaps you can do better? I would be pleased to hear you explain how medium & long-range foreknowledge of potential climate and weather conditions months ahead of time is "useless?"

I doubt Mr. Hunter is a farmer. Reliable forecasting is certainly of interest to everyone who eats . Btw, Mike Palmerino of DTN is getting nervous about the spring planting -

www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/ag/blogs/template1&blogHandle=weather&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc25987ff10125fa799fd80477&showCommentsOverride=false .

Partial: "I'm not sure a weakening El Nino would have any significant impact in changing the weather pattern in the Midwest with the idea of a colder than normal and wetter than normal weather pattern continuing no matter what happens with El Nino. This could be another tough spring for planting with saturated soils and cool temperatures a strong possibility."

[gahooduk]

have never come across the term Scientific astrology in your signature i google it, still cant make out what the defintion of it is

from google:

" as Choisnard defines it, contrasts with the occult astrology of revelations (explained most effectively by his contemporary, Alan Leo), and with intuitive divinatory astrology (such as onomastic astrology not based on astronomical data). For Alan Leo, scientific astrology was only a refinement of the historical determinist tendency which had always caused astrologers so many problems with ecclesiastical authorities. Paul Choisnard's works brought great clarity and appreciable pedagogical quality to astrology.

Choisnard and Heredity:

In 1919, under his first pen-name, Paul Flambart, published a work titled La loi d'hérédité astrale [The Law of Astral Heredity].

He compared the zodiacal positions, the house positions, and the angular distances in astrological charts of unrelated individuals to those from the same family, and arrived at the following conclusion:

"In the disposition of the stars in the sky at birth, the resemblances are much more frequent among members of the same family than among unrelated individuals, which indicates that nature tends to create the newborn under celestial conditions similar to those of his family members."


How do you use this in your forcasts

[AstroMet]

Jan 7, 2010 22:52:40 GMT gahooduk said:

have never come across the term Scientific astrology in your signature i google it, still cant make out what the defintion of it is

from google:

" as Choisnard defines it, contrasts with the occult astrology of revelations (explained most effectively by his contemporary, Alan Leo), and with intuitive divinatory astrology (such as onomastic astrology not based on astronomical data). For Alan Leo, scientific astrology was only a refinement of the historical determinist tendency which had always caused astrologers so many problems with ecclesiastical authorities. Paul Choisnard's works brought great clarity and appreciable pedagogical quality to astrology.

Choisnard and Heredity:

In 1919, under his first pen-name, Paul Flambart, published a work titled La loi d'hérédité astrale [The Law of Astral Heredity].

He compared the zodiacal positions, the house positions, and the angular distances in astrological charts of unrelated individuals to those from the same family, and arrived at the following conclusion:

"In the disposition of the stars in the sky at birth, the resemblances are much more frequent among members of the same family than among unrelated individuals, which indicates that nature tends to create the newborn under celestial conditions similar to those of his family members."


How do you use this in your forcasts

Perhaps when you do search on scientific astrology, try not to just look at the first thing that pops up, and spend a little more time on the subject.

Some texts, that you can also google and find -

See - books.google.com/books?id=Hp-H4KhAvoUC&dq=scientific+astrology&printsec=frontcover&source=in&hl=en&ei=FGZGS5eEDs7SlAfuobES&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=12&ved=0CDkQ6AEwCw#v=onepage&q=&f=false

See - books.google.com/books?id=wEFIAAAAIAAJ&dq=scientific+astrology&printsec=frontcover&source=in&hl=en&ei=FGZGS5eEDs7SlAfuobES&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=11&ved=0CDcQ6AEwCg#v=onepage&q=&f=false

See - iandravid.wordpress.com/2007/12/14/the-case-for-scientific-astrology/

Also try astrometeorology, which is a branch of astrology that focuses on long-range climate and weather forecasting.

[gahooduk]

thanks

[AstroMet]

Jan 5, 2010 14:09:50 GMT curiousgeorge said:

Jan 5, 2010 13:43:52 GMT AstroMet said:

You will note that it is a forecast, not a "prediction." As for being useless, if that is so, then perhaps you can do better? I would be pleased to hear you explain how medium & long-range foreknowledge of potential climate and weather conditions months ahead of time is "useless?"

I doubt Mr. Hunter is a farmer. Reliable forecasting is certainly of interest to everyone who eats . Btw, Mike Palmerino of DTN is getting nervous about the spring planting -

www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/ag/blogs/template1&blogHandle=weather&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc25987ff10125fa799fd80477&showCommentsOverride=false .

Partial: "I'm not sure a weakening El Nino would have any significant impact in changing the weather pattern in the Midwest with the idea of a colder than normal and wetter than normal weather pattern continuing no matter what happens with El Nino. This could be another tough spring for planting with saturated soils and cool temperatures a strong possibility."

I agree, you see that sometimes. People who are unaware of long-range forecasting tend to have a short-sighted view of the climate and weather and falsely believe that long-range forecasting isn't possible when it has been accomplished for a long time - right under their noses. All they had to do was to look for it.

Re/ El Nino ~

This ENSO will be heading from moderate to strong values into this spring, and will affect 50% of the world. We can already witness the early affects of El Nino in the winter weather across the northern hemisphere stretching from northern Asia to North America to Europe. There are also effect taking place in South America, and in my 2010 ENSO forecast I expect this year to be a very strong El Nino year affecting the climate of many nations.

See ENSO update here ~ www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

[AstroMet]

Jan 3, 2010 0:48:26 GMT aj1983 said:

You can add the floods in Italy, and maybe also the snow in the UK...

Here, however, except from the snow it has been a very quiet fall and winter until now.

That's pretty typical for Holland in the fall, but, the winter season is much colder now, and it should last until mid-to-late February, when arctic pressure eases off for what will become another warm year heading into the winter of 2011 - which arrives late for much of the northern hemisphere according to my long-range forecast.

[aj1983]

Thanks for the forecast. We do however usually have much more gales in fall and winter than we currently have had. It can be bad, with (near) hurricane force winds.

[AstroMet]

Jan 12, 2010 13:04:29 GMT aj1983 said:

Thanks for the forecast. We do however usually have much more gales in fall and winter than we currently have had. It can be bad, with (near) hurricane force winds.

Sure, this year should be a great year of climate and weather seeing that it will be an El Nino year, with La Nina on the back-end, according to my ENSO long-range forecast.

[AstroMet]

Jan 5, 2010 14:09:50 GMT curiousgeorge said:

Jan 5, 2010 13:43:52 GMT AstroMet said:

You will note that it is a forecast, not a "prediction." As for being useless, if that is so, then perhaps you can do better? I would be pleased to hear you explain how medium & long-range foreknowledge of potential climate and weather conditions months ahead of time is "useless?"

I doubt Mr. Hunter is a farmer. Reliable forecasting is certainly of interest to everyone who eats . Btw, Mike Palmerino of DTN is getting nervous about the spring planting -

www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/ag/blogs/template1&blogHandle=weather&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc25987ff10125fa799fd80477&showCommentsOverride=false .

Partial: "I'm not sure a weakening El Nino would have any significant impact in changing the weather pattern in the Midwest with the idea of a colder than normal and wetter than normal weather pattern continuing no matter what happens with El Nino. This could be another tough spring for planting with saturated soils and cool temperatures a strong possibility."

Yes, I know. You hear these kinds of things from people sometimes who just do not have a clue about climate, health, and of course the impact on agriculture. Everyone has to eat, and people sometimes forget that the climate decides everything about crops.

Right now, I see the southern jet bringing back a very wet and windy second half of January for the western U.S., including the northwest - heavy rains are on the way, and heavy snows for the Sierra mountains.

See - www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.gif

In my ENSO forecast, I continue to warn about heavy floods as a result of the Mississippi River overflowing this late winter, and into spring.

This ENSO is just starting to power up now, and it will dominate the entire year.

[nautonnier]

Jan 15, 2010 14:28:39 GMT AstroMet said:

Jan 5, 2010 14:09:50 GMT curiousgeorge said:

I doubt Mr. Hunter is a farmer. Reliable forecasting is certainly of interest to everyone who eats . Btw, Mike Palmerino of DTN is getting nervous about the spring planting -

www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/ag/blogs/template1&blogHandle=weather&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc25987ff10125fa799fd80477&showCommentsOverride=false .

Partial: "I'm not sure a weakening El Nino would have any significant impact in changing the weather pattern in the Midwest with the idea of a colder than normal and wetter than normal weather pattern continuing no matter what happens with El Nino. This could be another tough spring for planting with saturated soils and cool temperatures a strong possibility."

Yes, I know. You hear these kinds of things from people sometimes who just do not have a clue about climate, health, and of course the impact on agriculture. Everyone has to eat, and people sometimes forget that the climate decides everything about crops.

Right now, I see the southern jet bringing back a very wet and windy second half of January for the western U.S., including the northwest - heavy rains are on the way, and heavy snows for the Sierra mountains.

See - www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.gif

In my ENSO forecast, I continue to warn about heavy floods as a result of the Mississippi River overflowing this late winter, and into spring.

This ENSO is just starting to power up now, and it will dominate the entire year.

"This ENSO is just starting to power up now, and it will dominate the entire year."

Interesting counterpoint as Joe Bastardi from Accuweather is saying the opposite.

" the peak of this nino seems to a) have been reached earlier than normal and b) did not reach the peak of 06-07, when it Jim Hansen who went nuts on hottest ever."

www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp

Looks like a validation test coming up

[sigurdur]

That area east of NZ is still troubling to me. That is a lot of heat being expressed.

And being the area does NOT seem to be normal, is it current related, vocanic related, or what?

[nautonnier]

Jan 17, 2010 16:16:27 GMT sigurdur said:

That area east of NZ is still troubling to me. That is a lot of heat being expressed.

And being the area does NOT seem to be normal, is it current related, vocanic related, or what?

It seems too large to be caused by wind or volcanism I suppose it could be the effect of the negative PDO as it has not been 'seen' by satellites before.

What _must_ be the case is that it will affect global weather in a way that may not be usual - perhaps there are records of this in the previous negative PDO.

[sigurdur]

An area as large as it is, should not have been overlooked in the past.

I am short of time at the moment to reserach this further, but if someone else would, that would be most welcome.

I have written before that this El Nino is not producing the expected weather pattern over NA. Maybe there is a relationship to this?