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Post by AstroMet on Jan 26, 2010 19:54:17 GMT
You seem very confident about this 2010 El Nino Astromet I think Joe Bastardi is suggesting it is coming to an end If it continues into 2010 with renewed vigour it would equal the 1998 super El Nino If I have understood your comments is that what you are suggesting might happen? Yes. This El Nino is just getting started according to my calculations. I don't know why some would say that it is coming to an end, since I don't see that according to astronomical transits. My forecast shows that the entire year of 2010 will be El Nino, followed by La Nina in winter 2011. |
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Post by neilhamp on Jan 26, 2010 20:13:49 GMT
If you are right Astromet then the UK Met.Office forcast of 2010 to be the hotest year since records began is likely to come to fruition. This would mean solar minimists like myself will be eating our words.
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Post by dartman321 on Jan 26, 2010 20:24:38 GMT
Neilhamp: Astomet could not make himself any clearer. He describes this current, measurable, decrease in the PDO as only a brief lull in what will be .....let me see....I think I have the quote "I've forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year. This is caused mainly by the activity of the Sun, which will undergo an historic solar maximum that will bring to an end the 36-year global warming phase that began in the year 1980." His predictions run contrary to the current NASA prediction of solar activity associated with cycle 24, and the long range forecasts of Accuweather's, Joe Bastardi. I must confess that I am very skeptical of anyone who links Astrology with real science. I am also very skeptical of anyone, scientist, astrologist, or tea leaf reader, who predicts rain patterns two years into the future. Quoting Astromet again, "..developing ENSO state not only an historic one, but also an unusual climate phenomena worthy of lengthy study after all is said and done." He really stuck his neck out on this one! I made a copy of his original prediction and if this year plays out like he predicts, I will be shocked.
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 26, 2010 20:27:02 GMT
If you are right Astromet then the UK Met.Office forcast of 2010 to be the hotest year since records began is likely to come to fruition. This would mean solar minimists like myself will be eating our words. It may be one of the warmest years because of El Nino's effect on the Earth's atmosphere, but the warmest decade still was the 1930s, and the warmest year was 1934. I cannot say that I am confident of the UK Met Office's ability to forecast seasonally, however, because of El Nino in 2010, the real problem will be precipitation, which will match 1998's record when all is said and done after this year. As a long-range forecaster, that is what I do, and I publish my forecasts mainly as a public service. This is not the first time I have done so, as I've done this for years. Conventional mets and climatologists do not forecast astronomically as far as I've seen, which is why they do not have a good track record over the years. NASA, NOAA/NWS do not forecast long-range, though they may try using the methods they have learned, which is to study the effects, but not the causes of climate and weather events on Earth. I have not seen their seasonal forecasts over the past 30 years be accurate, and not much has changed to 2010. They did not forecast this current ENSO, however, I did, and did so several years in advance. You do not need a large organization to forecast medium and long-range weather. One can learn to do this from one's own local location first, and then to branch out from there applying the methods of Astrometeorology, which I have written on. However, forecasting astronomically is not new, except to those who have not learned of it, and should, since it does include astrological methods, which created meteorology in the first place. It is no secret that the Earth's climate and weather is astronomically forced, except to those who have not learned this basic fact of the laws that govern the Earth, and our climate. It is those who have not simply studied this history and the astronomical methods applied to forecast months and years in advance. Perhaps that is why it is a "shock" to those who have not done so. |
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Post by dartman321 on Jan 26, 2010 23:46:36 GMT
Astromet: You bear a striking resemblance to a Medieval alchemist. I'll use a Wiki quote.."It is a popular belief that Alchemists made mundane contributions to the "chemical" industries of the day—ore testing and refining, metalworking, production of gunpowder, ink, dyes, paints, cosmetics, leather tanning, ceramics, glass manufacture, preparation of extracts, liquors, and so on (it seems that the preparation of aqua vitae, the "water of life", was a fairly popular "experiment" among European alchemists). In reality, although Alchemists contributed distillation to Western Europe, they did little for any known industry. Long before Alchemists appeared, goldsmiths knew how to tell what was good gold or fake, and industrial technology grew by the work of the artisans themselves, rather than any Alchemical helpers.
"I think you are just as good as anyone else at recognizing some obvious weather trends, in advance. You are also a very experienced and adept writer. You then make lengthy predictions based on these trends, and wrap them in the cloak of "astrometerology". Toss in a bit of mysticism and voila ! we have a new Nostradamus. I think you were "on point" with recognizing in 2008, that the winter 2008 and 2009 would be colder and wetter in many area's. I made the same observations to my friends and family at that time, given that we were well into a solar minimum. The hairs on the back of my neck start to raise when you start introducing pluto, neptune, saturn, and Regulus into your various predictions.
For example, quoting a post of yours, "Most people at this time in summer 2007 have heard of the crash in the American housing markets and the resulting credit crunch, as markets over the summer dived on news of what is being called one of the worst housing crisis since the Great Depression. Transits revealed this back in 2003, when Saturn made ingresses into tropical Cancer; however, much of the corruption during the real estate boom did not become known by the public until spring 2007."
You're not an alchemist, are you?
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 27, 2010 2:58:26 GMT
Astromet: You bear a striking resemblance to a Medieval alchemist. I'll use a Wiki quote.."It is a popular belief that Alchemists made mundane contributions to the "chemical" industries of the day—ore testing and refining, metalworking, production of gunpowder, ink, dyes, paints, cosmetics, leather tanning, ceramics, glass manufacture, preparation of extracts, liquors, and so on (it seems that the preparation of aqua vitae, the "water of life", was a fairly popular "experiment" among European alchemists). In reality, although Alchemists contributed distillation to Western Europe, they did little for any known industry. Long before Alchemists appeared, goldsmiths knew how to tell what was good gold or fake, and industrial technology grew by the work of the artisans themselves, rather than any Alchemical helpers. "I think you are just as good as anyone else at recognizing some obvious weather trends, in advance. You are also a very experienced and adept writer. You then make lengthy predictions based on these trends, and wrap them in the cloak of "astrometerology". Toss in a bit of mysticism and voila ! we have a new Nostradamus. I think you were "on point" with recognizing in 2008, that the winter 2008 and 2009 would be colder and wetter in many area's. I made the same observations to my friends and family at that time, given that we were well into a solar minimum. The hairs on the back of my neck start to raise when you start introducing pluto, neptune, saturn, and Regulus into your various predictions. For example, quoting a post of yours, "Most people at this time in summer 2007 have heard of the crash in the American housing markets and the resulting credit crunch, as markets over the summer dived on news of what is being called one of the worst housing crisis since the Great Depression. Transits revealed this back in 2003, when Saturn made ingresses into tropical Cancer; however, much of the corruption during the real estate boom did not become known by the public until spring 2007." You're not an alchemist, are you? I consider myself a Polymath, and a scientific astrologer. I am no more an alchemist than say was Issac Newton, or Benjamin Franklin, who were mundane astrologers and polymaths themselves, among many others such as Galileo, Kepler, and Copernicus for instance. What was called "alchemy" is called chemistry today. However, from your comments, I think you may have a misunderstanding of how the science of forecasting is done. I don't use "tea leaves" (never did) and I don't take part in such foolishness as those who think astrology is practiced that way. It isn't. What is your point? |
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Post by icefisher on Jan 27, 2010 3:21:48 GMT
You seem very confident about this 2010 El Nino Astromet I think Joe Bastardi is suggesting it is coming to an end If it continues into 2010 with renewed vigour it would equal the 1998 super El Nino If I have understood your comments is that what you are suggesting might happen? Yes. This El Nino is just getting started according to my calculations. I don't know why some would say that it is coming to an end, since I don't see that according to astronomical transits. My forecast shows that the entire year of 2010 will be El Nino, followed by La Nina in winter 2011. Well you are out there. Only one model shows El Nino surviving next fall and every one is in decline within two months. |
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 27, 2010 4:33:02 GMT
Yes. This El Nino is just getting started according to my calculations. I don't know why some would say that it is coming to an end, since I don't see that according to astronomical transits. My forecast shows that the entire year of 2010 will be El Nino, followed by La Nina in winter 2011. Well you are out there. Only one model shows El Nino surviving next fall and every one is in decline within two months. Hi Icefisher, yes, I know. However, none of those models forecasted El Nino either, so, we'll have to see what is happening by the end of this year, and into the winter of 2011. Re/ the "declines" - these are not so. They are magnetohydrodynamical variations according to the rhythm of the transits as these impact the equatorial Pacific, which acts as the boiler room of the Earth. From astronomical calculations, I have this ENSO lasting into 2011. There's a long way to go before this one is over, and by that time, it will have affected 50% of the planet. This should be a good one to study, and my estimates has this ENSO rivaling the 1998-99 event. However, this current ENSO has just started to get going. The variations are the fluxes of astronomical causes, and the ENSO is building up. After the end of February, we should see stronger signals as the Earth approaches the equinox by mid-March. There is much more precipitation on the way for the geographic regions affected by El Nino and La Nina. |
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Post by neilhamp on Jan 28, 2010 5:17:46 GMT
Wow! You certainly are out there in an exposed position Astromet
If you are right it doesn't bode well for AGW sceptics such as myself
The UK Met. Office have forcast 2010 to be the warmer than 1998
With the current solar minimum and negative PDO I was hoping they might be wrong
If you and they turn out to be right it will further enhance the Met.Office's warmist views
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Post by glc on Jan 28, 2010 10:16:48 GMT
This gem from Astromet
It may be one of the warmest years because of El Nino's effect on the Earth's atmosphere, but the warmest decade still was the 1930s, and the warmest year was 1934.
While astromet appears to look to the sun and the planets to explain the weather on earth he seems remarkably US orientated when considering the weather effects.
1934 may have been the warmest year in the US, it was most certainly not the warmest year in the rest of the world. Also the recent decade (2000-2009) was considerably warmer than the 1930s - even in the US.
This leads me on to his 36 year warm/cold phases. Astromet seems to have latched on to the fact that there was warming in the early 20th century and some cooling in the middle part. This is true. However this does not mean that the middle part was cooler than the early part. It wasn't. Temperatures in the early part of the 20th century started from a low base. The so-called cooling in the 1944-1980 period (Astromet's 36 year period) did not cause temperatures to fall anywhere near those in the the early 1900s.
Clearly something else is in play here and no amount of jiggery-pokery with planetary orbits or whatever can explain it. There are cycles but ther is also an underlying warming trend.
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Post by glc on Jan 28, 2010 10:46:57 GMT
This should be a good one to study, and my estimates has this ENSO rivaling the 1998-99 event. However, this current ENSO has just started to get going. The variations are the fluxes of astronomical causes, and the ENSO is building up.
Is this just a typo or a poor attention to detail?
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Post by magellan on Jan 28, 2010 13:55:52 GMT
This gem from Astromet It may be one of the warmest years because of El Nino's effect on the Earth's atmosphere, but the warmest decade still was the 1930s, and the warmest year was 1934. While astromet appears to look to the sun and the planets to explain the weather on earth he seems remarkably US orientated when considering the weather effects. 1934 may have been the warmest year in the US, it was most certainly not the warmest year in the rest of the world. Also the recent decade (2000-2009) was considerably warmer than the 1930s - even in the US. This leads me on to his 36 year warm/cold phases. Astromet seems to have latched on to the fact that there was warming in the early 20th century and some cooling in the middle part. This is true. However this does not mean that the middle part was cooler than the early part. It wasn't. Temperatures in the early part of the 20th century started from a low base. The so-called cooling in the 1944-1980 period (Astromet's 36 year period) did not cause temperatures to fall anywhere near those in the the early 1900s. Clearly something else is in play here and no amount of jiggery-pokery with planetary orbits or whatever can explain it. There are cycles but ther is also an underlying warming trend. 1934 may have been the warmest year in the US, it was most certainly not the warmest year in the rest of the world. Also the recent decade (2000-2009) was considerably warmer than the 1930s - even in the US. Only through manipulation and planning. chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/01/27/temperatures-now-compared-to-maintained-ghcn/ |
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Post by aj1983 on Jan 28, 2010 14:06:17 GMT
glc: most people in the US seem to think that the US ISthe whole world, so by using this definition, they are right. 
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Post by magellan on Jan 28, 2010 14:16:10 GMT
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gfw
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 55
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Post by gfw on Jan 28, 2010 17:32:46 GMT
Ha Ha, that link to chiefio is hilarious.
Let's see. He takes a data set that is strongly biased towards land in general and northern hemisphere land in particular (and there's a lot more northern hemisphere land to start with), and then takes December 2009, which is
a) Northern hemisphere winter, and
b) A single month that just happened to have an Arctic Oscillation that pushed cold air into two of the regions well covered by the data set while warming the high arctic (mostly not in the data set).
He then compares this unusually cold NH hemisphere winter month to a 15 year baseline - which completely removes seasonal effects from the baseline.
Brilliantly composed cherry picking. Well done sir!
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