This has been a most unproductive thread, and everyone knows steve and I have butt heads too many times to count. I never claimed to be a long range forecaster, but do think there are at minimum solar forces we don't understand that affects both weather and climate. The hydrological connection is quite evident (based on much evidence).
Astromet, I've read many of your posts in other forums. There seems to be a distinct pattern and I understand steve's frustration regardless of my many disagreements with him. You said above:
La Niña is here as forecasted.
Yet in January you said this:
tinyurl.com/2benbb5Yes. This El Nino is just getting started according to my calculations. I don't know why some would say that it is coming to an end, since I don't see that according to astronomical transits. My forecast shows that the entire year of 2010 will be El Nino, followed by La Nina in winter 2011.
I have no intention of getting caught up in what is now a worthless thread, but let's call a spade and spade: La Nina was not here as forecast.
Again, this goes against what ENSO shows that many do not even understand what they are talking about when they use the terms El Nino and La Nina - which is why they cannot forecast such climate events.
I can because I do so astronomically.
ENSO is both a "warm" AND "cold" oscillatory event. What is so difficult about understanding this? The problem as I see it is that far too many of some of you have some really strange concepts about the climate which have nothing to do with what is happening in the
real world.This is problem many show and mainly because they use computer models as a philosophy. I do
not and there is a very good reason why - because the solutions entered into models treat "effects as causes."
That is ass-backwards and has
nothing to do with what is happening in the real world. Period.
There is also the problem that some have of
synthesis. This is something that is at epidemic levels - seeing things as "separate" but unable to
synthesis the climate as a whole, and not just the sums of its parts.
The reasoning behind conventional forecasting, and those who depend on it, is linear thinking at best, which is why convention science fails at seasonal and yearly climate forecasting.
Remember - the Earth is
round.
It is a major reason why some cannot forecast at all, much less understand the basics of climate and weather events.
Moreover, it is amazing to see and hear how some do not understand the simplicity of hydro-science where if you use cold pressure to force out warm water, you will see the heat evaporate into the atmosphere to be replaced by colder temperatures. This is effectively what happens when El Nino transitions into La Nina in the Pacific - on a global level.
El Nino has released its heat into the atmosphere, and if some of you have been reading the weather news of 2010, you will see that it was a very wet year with high levels of precipitation, and floods. This was forecasted by me, saying it was not (whoever does so) ain't exactly proving that you are keen on the world's climate.
La Nina has not peaked, though some of you would like to "believe" it has, but you will be proven wrong as you observe La Nina's expansion into early 2011.
Moreover, I've forecasted 2011 to be a cooler-than-normal year according to my astronomical calculations, and this will be shown to be true as well.
Those who want to become forecasters of advanced climate and weather must put away the computer models that treat effects as causes and get back to the basics to be able to forecast into the future.
Until you do this, you will not be able to forecast anything outside of two weeks, much less a month, three months, or years into the future.
Also - look at ENSO for what is truly is - both warm and cold and observe how their oscillations transition - one into the other (and sometimes back as well) - in the Pacific. These major warm/cold oscillations effectively impact 50% of the Earth's climate.
I did not see anyone, at least on this board, forecast ENSO even back in 2008, so it is a little premature to call my forecast "wrong" when ENSO
is here (El Nino AND La Nina) as forecasted.
So what if you or anyone doesn't
like it? What does
that have to do with anything? That's a childish mentality which doesn't belong on any climate board.
There's far too much ideology and bullshit opinion out there that is useless. Climategate proved just how low some have stooped to make stars out of themselves.
I'm not interested in being a "star," - I work for a living, and I forecast astronomically. I do not need anyone's permission to do what I do. But I know this: the world needs more serious forecasters.
I talk the talk and
walk the walk. I publish my forecasts well ahead of time and let the chips fall where they may as the weather validates the hits and misses. That is the job of any professional forecaster who works for a living.
I forecasted ENSO for this time from years ago and have another ENSO forecast for a future year to come already plotted out. I will publish that one in 2012.
In the meantime, prepare for a strong La Nina in 2011, and a cold and wet winter season in the northern hemisphere. It's going to be a very good one, and with the volcanic eruptions in 2010, you can bet your socks that it is going to be a colder-than-normal winter, spring, and summer just ahead.
