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Post by AstroMet on Nov 16, 2010 0:49:28 GMT
I didn't say that your forecast from 2006 was a lie. I didn't mention your forecast from 2006. Your statement made on November 12 2010: did not accord with your January statement that: Why was that? January 2010, yes, El Nino was just getting started. What is your point? Oh, I see Steve, so you did not say that I was "wrong" about my forecast of ENSO in 2010-11? Really? Seems I misread all the times you called me a liar on this forecast thread. Again - El Nino's effects on the climate have been in effect this year, 2010, with heavy rains and floods. La Nina does not really get started until 2011 in the northern hemisphere. That is what I said, so I would appreciate it if you would stop nickel-and-diming what I say into your opinions - which have nothing at all to do with my long-range forecasts. This ENSO has been a very serious one, and has already caused lives to be lost along with billions in damage. The second phase is La Nina, and we are just about to enter into another serious climate cycle - a cold wet one - that is a prelude to what is coming for the planet in the 2020s and 2030s. |
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Post by AstroMet on Nov 16, 2010 1:28:23 GMT
There is an outside chance he might have gotten the signals right if the NWS/NCEP CFS raw models nail it.  Bottom line is would represent that the baseline between La Nina and El Nino has been overly influenced by the 20th century natural warming. . . .potentially putting recent events in kind of a weak La Nina/Neutral status. However the powers that be over in NWS/NCEP are correcting these runs to this:  Bottom line is these corrections are experience corrections and experience is fairly limited. So whatever it is NWS has been keying in on from observational data there apparently is a signal for that Astromet might have picked up on astronomically. I am not advocating that but I am content to sit back in my recliner and pop some corn while watching. I'm sure that some climate centers are just now taking into account the volcanic eruptions this year, and the ash that is high in the atmosphere as we head towards the winter. This La Nina has some interesting anomalous action going on from what I see in transits for winter and spring 2011. The precipitation of El Nino in 2010 continues to affect regions of world, such as Europe, where recently in Belgium a month's worth of rain fell in two days this past weekend. See - news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/news/newsid_9190000/9190464.stmWhat concerns me about this particular ENSO is the heavy precipitation of 2010 and the coming cold temperatures from La Nina's role this coming winter and spring. Mainly this will be colder-than-average temperatures, which along with increased precipitation spells out heavy snows and ice storms during winter and early spring months of 2011. The rising numbers of people falling ill in the northern hemisphere will be primarily due to the colder than normal air temperatures and wet climate conditions. March 2011 is particularly a bad month for public health according to what I see astrologically. The cold spring that follows will lead into a cooler than normal summer 2011 until about mid-July when temperatures begin to bounce back to around normal highs. Until then, it is cooler and wetter than normal for winter, spring, and early summer. This means higher rates of sick people suffering during winter/spring due to the colder-than-normal temperatures and wet climate. |
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Post by icefisher on Nov 16, 2010 2:18:02 GMT
Until then, it is cooler and wetter than normal for winter, spring, and early summer. This means higher rates of sick people suffering during winter/spring due to the colder-than-normal temperatures and wet climate. Since ENSO has really only been studied in the 2nd half of the 20th century it makes sense they have a lot of experience yet to earn. I find it fascinating that the raw uncorrected models have been spitting out the above results now for months and that they have also been performing better so far over the "experience" corrected runs have which originally resisted the idea of even a moderate La Nina. Now at issue is only weather it will be moderate to strong one or perhaps much stronger, record La Nina if the raw models continue to pan out and it goes below -2.1. Its pretty clear that we are in a solar mode not seen for at least a 100 years so 60 years of experience doesn't buy much. Steve and others are intent on discrediting your work. I am not in such a hurry as what was good for Benjamin Franklin works well enough for me until such time it is disproven, not by a deviation from a manufactured "normal" baseline but by something more fundamental. Considering that astronomically and without a detailed physical mechanism there is no way to know much more than the shape of things and the general timing of things, something the Farmer's Almanacs have not done too bad of job at over the centuries mostly just by looking at celestial bodies. I will hold you to more than the PDF corrected ENSO line on your prediction though. |
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Post by poitsplace on Nov 16, 2010 9:33:11 GMT
Steve and others are intent on discrediting your work. I am not in such a hurry as what was good for Benjamin Franklin works well enough for me until such time it is disproven, not by a deviation from a manufactured "normal" baseline but by something more fundamental. LOL, I think the mechanisms claimed are nonsense and that he was blatantly wrong in his prediction. I have no problem with the raw correlation between various phenomenon and the earth's weather. And I would have no problem with him being wrong...if he'd just admit to it instead of prevaricating and trying to reframe what he said when he was quite clear on his meaning in the first place. |
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Post by steve on Nov 16, 2010 10:15:43 GMT
astromet, Your blind spots, deliberate or otherwise, are fascinating to observe. I criticised the fact that you have not acknowledged the error in the following statement: and you completely ignored the erroneous bit by saying: So let's really focus. You are now saying: but you said the following in January, and repeated it many times when other people suggested you would end up with egg on your face: For the record, La Niña conditions are now strongly in place and have been for a while.  |
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Post by icefisher on Nov 16, 2010 14:09:35 GMT
For the record, La Niña conditions are now strongly in place and have been for a while. And what I was saying Steve if you are looking at the planets and lets say for a moment the planets, particularly the gas giants, do impact the climate on earth by some mysterious mechanism the best you are going to see is a general shape like the curved line on the charts above. Picking where the artificial line divides between La Nina and El Nino could only be done if you actually had an accurate quantitative description of the mechanism. When I look at that the curve above, uncorrected by experience, without the artificial indices of positive and negative anomaly I would pick the current state as a transition state between El Nino and La Nina which would be in line with Astromet's prediction. Whether Astromet's definition of La Nina pans out remains to be seen and the powers that be at NWS are saying their experience says no even if the observations they are using point to something very unusual never seen before (the index has never been below -2.1 but the raw model center line is pointing at something lower than -3. So yes technically Astromet missed his prediction but its just a technicality at this point as measured by an artificial measure that may well be biased. |
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Post by steve on Nov 16, 2010 14:21:06 GMT
Are you accusing astromet of getting his forecast wrong?  Don't you think you should actually *try* forecasting before hurling criticisms at hard-working professionals about something you clearly know little about while popping popcorn and lazing in your recliner.  |
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Post by icefisher on Nov 16, 2010 14:43:20 GMT
Steve and others are intent on discrediting your work. I am not in such a hurry as what was good for Benjamin Franklin works well enough for me until such time it is disproven, not by a deviation from a manufactured "normal" baseline but by something more fundamental. LOL, I think the mechanisms claimed are nonsense and that he was blatantly wrong in his prediction. I have no problem with the raw correlation between various phenomenon and the earth's weather. And I would have no problem with him being wrong...if he'd just admit to it instead of prevaricating and trying to reframe what he said when he was quite clear on his meaning in the first place. I haven't seen any reframing. You are holding his predictions to an artificial measure. If you expect Astromet to look at the stars and see the NWS anomaly lines then you have unreasonable expectations. I say wait until this plays out. Observations are noting very unusual conditions. The raw models are reporting their experience for "entry" conditions as a record shattering La Nina. This could be an indicator that astronomical phenomena are having effects. Processing those indicators through the 60 year filter of experience changes it to an anomaly driven by conventional wisdom in the corrected graph. It is notable that for the past few months the raw models have been outperforming the experience corrections. The connection to what a La Nina actually is is tenuous. That would fit his prediction if the nadir for the La Nina is in winter 2011. If ENSO was deepened by an internal ocean process taking us into La Nina earlier and combining with the celestial drivers hey dude could anybody in the world have gotten that right? I am just saying that because ENSO crossed an artificially-derived line, focused on a very small area of the Pacific Ocean, a bit early is not a good reason to reject his forecast. I think the jury is still out. Lets see what happens this winter. If you look at UAH, we are still experiencing an "atmospheric" El Nino with LT not yet below the trendline. Its only an area in the ocean that is unusually cold. These may not get together until winter. |
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Post by poitsplace on Nov 16, 2010 19:41:20 GMT
I haven't seen any reframing. You are holding his predictions to an artificial measure. If you expect Astromet to look at the stars and see the NWS anomaly lines then you have unreasonable expectations. He repeatedly said we would be in an El Nino for ALL of 2010. He was passionate about it. The exchanges left no room for error...El Nino was here for ALL of 2010. He was clear that it was El Nino and NOT ENSO in general. I wouldn't take issue with it if he hadn't made such a fuss about it and then tried to redefine what he had so clearly defined earlier. Well, he redefined it AFTER several people (including myself) called him on the "as I prediced, it has changed to La Nina" (an outright lie). Honestly, I think everyone would have left him alone if he'd replied to our initial criticism with nothing but a simple "oops!" or "I guess I was wrong". |
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Post by matt on Nov 16, 2010 21:02:36 GMT
That would fit his prediction if the nadir for the La Nina is in winter 2011. If ENSO was deepened by an internal ocean process taking us into La Nina earlier and combining with the celestial drivers hey dude could anybody in the world have gotten that right? But that's exactly the point. Astro said he could do the impossible. Turns out he failed to guess correctly. And that's what it was, just a guess that had nothing to do with transits or other astronomical signs. Astro is a fraud. |
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Post by icefisher on Nov 16, 2010 21:43:03 GMT
That would fit his prediction if the nadir for the La Nina is in winter 2011. If ENSO was deepened by an internal ocean process taking us into La Nina earlier and combining with the celestial drivers hey dude could anybody in the world have gotten that right? But that's exactly the point. Astro said he could do the impossible. Turns out he failed to guess correctly. And that's what it was, just a guess that had nothing to do with transits or other astronomical signs. Astro is a fraud. It has neither gotten cold yet nor has it become 2011 yet. Are you predicting he is going to be wrong? Roy Spencer said in October he had given up trying to make that prediction. |
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Post by matt on Nov 17, 2010 1:38:52 GMT
It has neither gotten cold yet nor has it become 2011 yet. Are you predicting he is going to be wrong? Roy Spencer said in October he had given up trying to make that prediction. No, I'm saying that it isn't El Nino anymore. |
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Post by AstroMet on Nov 17, 2010 3:57:49 GMT
I haven't seen any reframing. You are holding his predictions to an artificial measure. If you expect Astromet to look at the stars and see the NWS anomaly lines then you have unreasonable expectations. He repeatedly said we would be in an El Nino for ALL of 2010. He was passionate about it. The exchanges left no room for error...El Nino was here for ALL of 2010. He was clear that it was El Nino and NOT ENSO in general. I wouldn't take issue with it if he hadn't made such a fuss about it and then tried to redefine what he had so clearly defined earlier. Well, he redefined it AFTER several people (including myself) called him on the "as I prediced, it has changed to La Nina" (an outright lie). Honestly, I think everyone would have left him alone if he'd replied to our initial criticism with nothing but a simple "oops!" or "I guess I was wrong". I don't think so Poitsplace. Your initial "criticism," if you can call what you said critical, is based on your own false understanding of what constitutes ENSO - and it was you who was passionate about this in your own comments. I am a expert long-range forecaster. There are experts in the world and you ought to show respect as well as listen, as you may learn about things you did not know about the Earth's climate and weather. I don't appreciate narcissistic twerps who are jealous and critical, but whom will not put in the observational work it takes to forecast long-range. My forecast has not changed on ENSO and I continue to state that La Nina will have the most impact in 2011, which some here have called "wrong," though they give no reasons for it along with the fact that 2011 is obviously not yet here. So we know what some of the surface "criticism" is all about. La Nina has not arrived in earnest as we are still in a baseline El Nino clime (which Icefisher pointed out) that is giving way to cooler sea-surface temperatures being picked up by observational measurements. I also forecasted, years ago, that this would be a strong La Nina - the least you can do is to wait for 2011 and see for yourself before mouthing off that my forecast is "wrong." |
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Post by AstroMet on Nov 17, 2010 3:59:16 GMT
That would fit his prediction if the nadir for the La Nina is in winter 2011. If ENSO was deepened by an internal ocean process taking us into La Nina earlier and combining with the celestial drivers hey dude could anybody in the world have gotten that right? But that's exactly the point. Astro said he could do the impossible. Turns out he failed to guess correctly. And that's what it was, just a guess that had nothing to do with transits or other astronomical signs. Astro is a fraud. Where did I ever say I could do the impossible? Define "impossible." As for guessing - I never guess. As for me being a "fraud," - screw you pal. I work for a living. What is your excuse Matt? You're a guy that pitches AGW as a reality - if anyone is the "fraud" it's you. |
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Post by AstroMet on Nov 17, 2010 4:12:34 GMT
Steve and others are intent on discrediting your work. I am not in such a hurry as what was good for Benjamin Franklin works well enough for me until such time it is disproven, not by a deviation from a manufactured "normal" baseline but by something more fundamental. LOL, I think the mechanisms claimed are nonsense and that he was blatantly wrong in his prediction. I have no problem with the raw correlation between various phenomenon and the earth's weather. And I would have no problem with him being wrong...if he'd just admit to it instead of prevaricating and trying to reframe what he said when he was quite clear on his meaning in the first place. I haven't seen any reframing. You are holding his predictions to an artificial measure. If you expect Astromet to look at the stars and see the NWS anomaly lines then you have unreasonable expectations. I say wait until this plays out. Observations are noting very unusual conditions. The raw models are reporting their experience for "entry" conditions as a record shattering La Nina. This could be an indicator that astronomical phenomena are having effects. Processing those indicators through the 60 year filter of experience changes it to an anomaly driven by conventional wisdom in the corrected graph. It is notable that for the past few months the raw models have been outperforming the experience corrections. The connection to what a La Nina actually is is tenuous. That would fit his prediction if the nadir for the La Nina is in winter 2011. If ENSO was deepened by an internal ocean process taking us into La Nina earlier and combining with the celestial drivers hey dude could anybody in the world have gotten that right? I am just saying that because ENSO crossed an artificially-derived line, focused on a very small area of the Pacific Ocean, a bit early is not a good reason to reject his forecast. I think the jury is still out. Lets see what happens this winter. If you look at UAH, we are still experiencing an "atmospheric" El Nino with LT not yet below the trendline. Its only an area in the ocean that is unusually cold. These may not get together until winter. Exactly my point, and a good explanation of what is being seen now Icefisher. The problem with some is that they are not keen on baselines - in that they want to see only what they want to see - but not what is actually there. We are not in a La Nina phase fully as yet, but will be as we enter the winter season. My forecast is for La Nina to peak during the winter/spring 2011, and then to be in effect into the early summer until giving way later in the summer. What is notable about the second half of ENSO is that I continue to see anomalous activity associated with this particular La Nina and its power this coming winter as I forecasted. Those who complain that this is "wrong,"do not explain their reasons for it, but also jump the gun by making wild statements about my ENSO forecast, and then make conclusions which they can give no reason for other than mere opinion and guessing. That is never good enough. The causes are astronomical, of course, with most of the planets relative to the Earth in the southern hemisphere of the zodiac. There have been times in the past when this has happened that is associated with colder climate anomalies. What is going to be interesting about this winter/spring 2011 is the added atmospheric problems from the volcanic eruptions in 2010 and the effects on the already colder-than-normal climate due to La Nina. |
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