I really didn't want to get involved in this, but since Astromet described others who disagree as narcissistic, it seemed necessary to look up the word. Strange, it never occurred to me after heated discussions with steve, socold, glc et al that they were narcissistic.
NARCISSISTIC PERSONALITY DISORDER Diagnostic Features:
Narcissistic personality disorder is a condition characterized by an inflated sense of self-importance, need for admiration, extreme self-involvement, and lack of empathy for others. Individuals with this disorder are usually arrogantly self-assured and confident. They expect to be noticed as superior. Many highly successful individuals might be considered narcissistic. However, this disorder is only diagnosed when these behaviors become persistent and very disabling or distressing.
Some have pointed out inconsistencies and downright errors in what you have posted as forecasts. Rarely do you address them, but instead treat the observation as a personal insult for even questioning your self-described superiority, which is followed by long lamented scoldings to the "inferior" class of know-nothings (the rest of us).
Is there one forecast you've been wrong about? Anything at all? steve said he wasn't accusing you of lying about forecasting this 2010 El Nino (and its magnitude) in 2006. Neither am I, but don't expect it to blow over when you constantly remind us all of your powers of forecasting 2010 several years ago. Now, can you point to one forum anywhere on the internet, maybe a book you've written or something verifiable where you forecast this El Nino? Believe me, I've searched for something to vindicate you, but have come up empty handed.
And again, I pointed out a simple inconsistency of one forecast for winter 2010 and another 180 deg out of phase with the first. That sent you into a tirade?
Put up or shut up? Wow.
There is a reason why you've been banned from at least one forum, probably more.
Yes, put up or shut up. A reasoned response is now a "tirade?"
Magellan, if you make accusations of anything being "wrong" then it is the scientific method to then say
why this is so, but not with mere opinion and narcissism behind it which says your opinion is correct without providing any reason why this is so.
While you spent time listing what narcissism means you continue to miss my point.
The attitude and those of some are the same that brought about Climategate, which made pronouncements which are not true and then playing with words (and computer models) to make what is impossible, true, when it is not and never has been.
There have been many scientists "banned" when confronting the truth - Climategate is a pure example of this which also bled right down to the public level - in discussions, including at forums where ideology rules rather than common sense - much less the scientific method.
When you debate anything, once you become personal, you've lost the debate. I have seen many others "banned" from weather forums who did not tow the line and suck up to others who clearly show narcissistic behavior thinking that because
they cannot do what the particular forecaster does that therefore it is not valid because it does not fall into line with their own ideology.
Not only is that childish but it does not follow the premises of science, which is about exploration and discovery - not banning views which do not confirm to anyone's personal viewpoints on the climate/meteorology or follow an ideology that defies the laws of physics itself.
It is amazing to me how many people make statements as if the Earth is flat. It is equally amazing to me that many who profess keen interest in climatology and weather show such ignorance about the Sun and the Moon and the fact that the Earth lives in space - which is where all our weather comes from.
I published my ENSO forecast right here, you can see the date, which tells you I forecasted ENSO in advance - both features, El Nino and La Nina. What do you need a "book" for to tell you that?
This is not the first time I have forecasted climate and weather events months and years in advance, nor will it not be the last. Whether or not you or anyone else wants to "believe" it is a personal choice. That has nothing at all to do with me.
I've done astronomical forecasting for years and I do not require the belief systems of others to legitimize it. Usually, people like you are far behind the times and only realize the truth until long after the fact.
And yes, I've been wrong in forecasts plenty of times in 36 years of forecasting. That is a part of the job. No pitcher throws a strike with every pitch. No QB throws a completed pass on every attempt. No player scores a goal with every shot.
Never have I ever said that I was right all the time. That is the view of a child. I try to maintain at least 80-85% accuracy in my public long-range climate forecasts. Much of what I forecast has to do with the time I have to invest in producing them. I have a family, I write and work for a living, so my time is quite packed.
The mistake amateurs and the ignorant make who think that because a forecaster has been correct (even once, or twice, or several times) is that they
think that means that the forecaster thinks he is perfect.
That is a fantasy. No true forecaster claims they are perfect.
Most true forecasters know that they learn as much from their "hits" as they do from their "misses." That is part of the job of forecasting. But it does not mean that they are "wrong." That is an ideological view that is so far from the truth as to be laughable, but we've all seen this take place in Climategate.
It is the ignorant who say things like this because if a forecaster is consistent, above 70-80% - then they think the forecaster is saying they are never "wrong."
I've never seen one forecaster ever say that.
When did I ever say that about my forecasts? My long-range forecasts are for the public - a free service so people can prepare for potential climate events in advance. That is the whole point of forecasting.
It isn't about "ego" like the ignorant think, and that is most likely the reason why the ignorant cannot forecast their own local weather, much less the climate months and years in advance.
I am much more accurate with local and regional forecasts that my clients pay for because I am a professional. This is not a hobby for me.
Again, it is quite common in these times for bozos to go about making things up which are not true, then to spout off their ignorance off as truth (Climategate) while acting to then "ban" perspectives from other scientists and forecasters that do not tow the ideological line.
That is
not forecasting - it is ideology - and ideology does
not forecast the climate and weather, nor does it belong in science.
It is simply bullshit passing itself off as wanting to be "special" when it is not. That
is narcissism in climate science and meteorology and we've seen plenty of it over the last 15 years especially with the lie of anthropogenic global warming.
Now that all that has been proven to be bullshit (AGW and cap and trade) the model players are looking to continue their "forecasts" of climate years into the future when they cannot even forecast seasonally.
How is that even
possible?
So yes, put up or shut up. I hear some of you guys talking the talk but you do not walk the walk.
You do not get out on the field and knock heads with the rest of us forecasters. It is so much easier to sit on the sidelines and be critical when it is obvious that you've not the talent, skill or knowledge to do the very thing you are so critical of while professing that this and that is wrong, but you never prove it is so.
That is exactly how Climategate took place. With a bunch of bozos claiming they can forecast the world's climate years in advance but not able to forecast the weather a month ahead of time.
Falsifying models, altering global weather data, banning views that do not tow the ideological lines and being jealous of those who actually forecast the real climate and weather in advance.
I was "banned" when my forecasts came true. One, by a 17-year-old kid who served as a moderator of a forum who told me that anthropogenic global warming was real and that astrometeorology was a lie because he never heard of it! How is that for telling you just how low climate science has sunk? I am not the only one this has happened to.
I have seen others "banned" from weather boards run by people who believe that long-range forecasting is not possible - but who are ignorant of the history of meteorology to the point of narcissism - gazing at their own images and falling in love with their limited ideology.
Some of the people on these forums are barely over the age of 30, but come off as if they are "experts" which is a joke. They play at forecasting like it is a game and it is
not a game.
They lack both knowledge and experience. The great majority, if not nearly all of them, cannot even read a scientific ephemeris, much less heard of one. Some have emotional problems as is evident by the comments on some of these forums.
I know several climate scientists who were banned from several weather boards stating, with plenty of scientific evidence, that AGW was not true. Does the fact that they were "banned" mean that they are wrong?
I think not.
The astrologer Galileo was banned. So were the findings of the astrologers Copernicus, Kepler, and others. If I were you, I would read these guys and others who were "banned" as you are more than likely to find the truth with them than you are with those who do the banning.
Hasn't Climategate shown you enough or are you dense as well?
We have just emerged out of the age of stupidity. The dumbing down of science and forecasting by the ignorant, the rude, and yes, the narcissistic.
You have weather forums where some talk to death about short-term weather events, and then profess "knowledge" of the medium and long-term by using faulty computer models that treat effects as causes (ass-backwards) and then argue, yell, and throw out personal insults as proof that they are right?
Consensus is not a means to proper forecasting. There are so many people out there on weather forums who cheat, lie, and take from others or demean them but who cannot forecast two weeks of their own weather in advance but come off as being "experts" on a forum.
There are students, amateurs or those interested in weather who talk as if they are experts when they are far, far from it, but who confuse the ability to swipe a "model product" from the Internet, from NOAA/NWS as proof that they know what it is that they are talking about when they make their own forecasts - playing "forecaster" with guesses from their PC when they should be outside noting the astronomical motions and the real world's climate and weather.
All of this is
not climate science or meteorology but bullshit coming from those who
cannot forecast even a month in advance, but who then say that no one else can do this either.
How ignorant is that?
That
is narcissistic - and it has
no place in climate science and meteorology.
So, yes, put up or shut up. What is so hard about that Magellan? You want a try at saying that astrometeorology is not valid?
Then be my guest and forecast - in advance - the coming climate of winter/spring 2011 in the northern hemisphere. It is the climate and weather that validates all forecasts. Not ideology.
