astromet, So when you said, yesterday, that:
you didn't mean that December and January would be cold?
That doesn't really answer my question because I cannot see any link between your forecast (first post of this thread) and the current conditions in northern Europe. But you implied that you forecast it.
I think what you are saying is that I am dumb if I think that a long term forecast can be of any use to anyone because it cannot be used to predict any weather and it cannot be verified. That's not true though. I don't think long term predictive forecasting can be done, and I think that long term probabilistic forecasts have some way to go to be useful to the general public. I have said this many times.
Given that, I am commenting on your inability to fairly validate your own stated forecasts.
There you go again - nickel-and-dime comments to then make an assumption that is not only wrong Steve, but you also compound your ignorance by playing some kind of judge in validating your own comments despite scientific evidence to the contrary.
Am I not allowed to have my own thoughts on the present climate and weather without you putting everything I say into stone? And for you to twist what I say into something it does not mean?
Long-range forecasts have plenty of use for people. I have clients who certainly think so, and so do other long-range forecasters.
I have no idea how you see the climate Steve, but you sure have some really weird ideas about it and climate science in particular from the content of your comments.
Your questions, and your argument defies the laws of physics. You also appear to have some strange ideas of what constitutes probabilities without prior knowledge and understanding of the baseline observations that prove astronomical forcing of the climate and weather.
Whatever "philosophy" you appear to have Steve is far from the realities of what causes the climate and weather on Earth, that much is sure.
So, how you choose to
see it is really a matter of your own study and building that knowledge, rather than opining from the basis of what you do not know.
No matter how many times you want to say what you "think" it is, you still seem to not be up on even
dated materials related to astronomical forcing of the weather.
I've posted tutorials, scientific papers and links on this before. There are many others. You would do yourself a favor by actually reading them several times?
Here are just two papers from among thousands on astronomical forcing of the Earth's climate and weather. One is from 1965 and the other scientific paper was published 2010.
See - > docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/093/mwr-093-02-0093.pdfSee -> www.fel.duke.edu/~scafetta/pdf/scafetta-JSTP2.pdfThe fact that you are also ignorant of how climate and weather have been forecasted for centuries is another testament to this: why do you pretend that astronomical forecasting is "useless" when it has been the number #1 method used by nations, navies, and tradesmen for centuries?
Ships navigate by the stars and the weather is also forecasted by astronomical means by navies. This method is also used by farmers worldwide - for centuries - to make sure that the food you eat is plenty for all.
Given your lack of ability to show basic knowledge of all this Steve, it is not curious to see you say that "probabilistic" is the only means by which something can be measured. Everything is probabilistic - as is the weather - but the way you use the word it appears to be "chaotic."
Everything society does is predictive. That is normal to us as human beings. Some are better at predicting than others and some are not? Yeah, so what? That's history, isn't it?
The climate and weather is predicted as best it can be by those who use their means to do so. I forecast astronomically.
So what?
Just because you, personally, do not have the skill to forecast the weather and climate in advance does not mean that no one else on this planet cannot.
If that is your problem, so what? If you want to learn to forecast long-range, then get off your duff and begin to do so. Complaining about it is not work Steve. That's just plain lazy. Everyone has an opinion just like everyone has an ass****. What's your point?
Study the forecasting of other astrometeorologists like Brahe, Kepler, Franklin, etc., and learn more about advanced astronomical forecasting of the climate and weather.
Get the box off your head, observe your local, and regional climate and weather while learning to read an astronomical ephemeris.
That is how you start. But it seems you haven't even gotten around to that basic first step.
You commented in droves long enough, so try also putting in some serious reading time about astronomical forecasting and some of the thousands of scientific papers available to you on the subject.
After you have read and studied long-range forecasting enough, along with the history of meteorology, then you will be able to discuss this topic with much more intelligence than you have shown to the present time.
Questions are fine, but you're not asking questions to learn more, you do so to mock me, and to stay inside your own limited philosophy.
That isn't science Steve.
Science is all about exploration and discovery
at all times. You're behind on your reading of astronomical long-range forecasting and the astronomical forcing of the Earth's climate, that's for sure. It is the
very origin of meteorology and climate science itself and is thousands of years old.
Where have you been all this time?
