Sorry, no, absolutely not.
You did not say, "A cold, early start to winter, followed by an even colder late winter." You said A VERY LATE START TO WINTER. Do I actually have to go through threads and have you eat your words here in front of everyone? Or can you man up and admit that you were WAY OFF?
Well, I will "man up" when you learn to
read Woodstove. All those quotes you posted in your "ooops" posts just above were for
last winter. El Nino was in force at that time, it had just begun in the late months of 2009 and continued into 2010.
You can also try to post your remarks in a post or two rather than in your "ooops" chatline form, thanks.
Please learn to follow the discussion dates, which you confuse with
this winter when we were discussing last winter 2010.
Can I get a
"ooops" on you Woodstove?
Now, in my ENSO forecast, I did not say it would be a "very late start to winter."
Re-read what I actually wrote in my general long-range forecast ~
December 2010 continues the stormy, wet, and windy weather across regions of the nation; especially for the Mid-Atlantic, Southeastern U.S., and the central Midwestern states. There are rare tornado activity at the end of November, and into early December stretching from the Central Midwestern states into the Ohio Valley and parts of western Pennsylvania.
The last 2-3 days of November, and the first week of December 2010 is particularly stormy across the nation; stormy seas in the Gulf of Alaska; torrential rains stretching from the Great Lakes through the central Midwest and extending down into the Gulf of Mexico.
Dense fogs in the valleys of the Great Plains lead to below average cold temperatures and snowfall in the Desert Southwest; snow also falls in the Pocono Mountains of Pennsylvania, in Appalachia, and in the central Texas/Oklahoma panhandle, where winds, heavy rains lead to flooding.
The month of December 2010 is a very stormy month for most of the United States and offers a bit of everything from damaging winds, heavy torrential rains, blizzards, dense fogs, and thunder snow.
[Below are weather validations of my long-range forecast for December 2010]
See ->
www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/weather/2010/12/03/mxp.thunder.snow.hln.htmlSee ->
obama.net/california-breaks-rainfall-records-more-expected/See ->
www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMJgEfeUgo0&feature=relatedSee ->
www.srh.noaa.gov/hun/?n=hunsur_2009-12-09See ->
crazygreco.com/Weather/heavy-rains-in-pacific-northwest-trigger-mudslides-cause-flooding-along/See ->
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_h96lcjxeZkRadical and sudden temperatures shifts due the interplay between large warm and cold pressure systems that track through the country led by a powerful jet stream raging storms from the west to the southwest and then into southeastern U.S., and from the Northwest into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and the Northeastern U.S.
December 2010 will turn out to be one of the more significant weather months of the year before the climate weather settles down across most of the nation significantly by December 28, 2010.
Winter 2011, in my estimation, arrives later than normal (starting early February 2011 and ending late April 2011) for much of the U.S. The late winter 2011 season will have been due to the previous extended fall season, which is wetter and warmer than normal lasting in my estimation, through to late January 2011."
One of the problems you have Woodstove is that you appear to be rather immature and tend to see what you want, but you do not see in context of the overall and long-range.
And you should.
Why would a person wait to prepare for winter 2011 when it is obvious that it was forecasted to be colder and wetter than normal, long in advance?
Now, the reason for my contention that winter 2011 really doesn't get started until February 2011 is because that is what I've seen.
What we are seeing in December 2010, as I forecasted, confirms that I also saw these present conditions long ago, and I wrote down what I saw in my forecast.
2010 was indeed the wet year I forecasted in advance and a record year - especially for precipitation.
This winter was forecasted to be a La Nina Winter years back by me and we have just entered the second phase of ENSO, as forecasted.
Moreover, again, 2011 is not yet here, so what you call a 'hard winter' from present conditions in some locales isn't exactly having a clue as to what is to come. It's just a taste. Wait and you will see this for yourself rather than jumping the gun.
It isn't a rough winter yet in most places in the United States, and the winter season is just getting started in Europe.
Most of the regions experiencing snow are
northern ones, which do so nearly every season at this time of year.
It isn't a surprise to see snow in these northern regions in December. Things will calm down a bit after late December and into January. I had already forecasted on this month of December from several years ago as you can read in my ENSO forecast.
But what you will see coming, say mid-February onwards into March and through April 2011 will indeed break many winter records. These are the most powerful astronomic signals I've seen relating to ENSO and La Nina's phase. To me, this is real winter, from the astronomic configurations I've read.
What we are seeing now in the northern regions is just a
taste of what is to come for other regions that are not experiencing the winter conditions of northern regions.
So, while you are going "ooops" in a demeaning and ignorant manner, you are actually going "ooops" on being unconscious of what the climate is doing, as forecasted.
Seasonally, as a true winter, we're not there just yet.... almost now. We are still in the late phases of this transitional period going into the Earth's perihelion to the Sun in early January.
My calculations show a deeper fall in values, along with polar forcing, plus ENSO-La Nina that really is winter - and this extends into spring for the entire northern hemisphere, peak months are February, March and April 2011.
.
