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Post by AstroMet on Dec 22, 2010 1:03:02 GMT
A good moment to remember Christmas spirit. Best of the season to all. I second that. Merry Christmas everyone! |
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 22, 2010 1:09:06 GMT
I've made a list of changes I personally need to do to adapt to the change. Btw i live in Alberta, Canada the first 3 are VITAL 1: Important! Finish rest of school and learn a trade to make the money I need to finish the list 2: Cars are suicide! I need a good 4X4 truck in good running conditions, Travel is already hit hard enough and it will only get worse. 3: Good size deep freezer. With longer and more severe winters I'll need to stock up every winter much like those who lived in the 1800s 4: Some land out in the country near a major highway(that gets plowed more often) also with a good size greenhouse as frost even in midsummer will be more likely in the future. 5: A home fit for a 21st century Eskimo, a monolithic dome home. Concrete and extremely effective against the severe winters. 6: Off grid power for when severe winter storms down power lines and bury any effort to repair the grid. 7: Good drought proof water supply, a cool planet is also a dry one. Yea you got to be hardcore here in Canada when a "mini Ice age" hits, the winters are harsh enough as it is. This is a good start Solarstormlover. Long-range climate forecasts are critical for public and then individual preparation for colder climate and storms. If we look at what is happening in the UK - (see -> www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/dec/21/uk-snow-chaos-heathrow-weatherWe can see a total lack of preparation for colder climes. Most of this is due to the global warming mania which has all but ruined advanced preparation for the opposite - that is global cooling. Until policy-makers and industrialists change course, we will see many more world disruptions due to a colder and stormier climate, which I continue to forecast is on the way by the start of 2017 under the aegis of global cooling. These years are important to begin to make the adjustments to this coming climate change to cooling which will dominate the 2020s and 2030s. |
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Post by steve on Dec 22, 2010 10:42:44 GMT
astromet
A private compamy BAA has been bought out by another private company Ferrovial using a huge amount of debt that needed to be paid off. They took a gamble that in their spanish offices probably made sense to them. Their lack of deicing equipment caused the airport to snarl to a halt as they had over thirty planes in their deicing queue on Friday evening (despite them lying that all was fine till Saturday). I guess that once the planes were unable to get away on Friday evening they became even more contaminated by ice such that they were essentially unable to move.
The last two years were cold winters, and the current cold snap has been forecast phenomenally well by all and sundry, so they've had plenty of warning even if they were taken in by the "global warming mania". Perhaps they got confused by forecasts that told them that winter would not start till February.
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 22, 2010 23:34:17 GMT
astromet A private compamy BAA has been bought out by another private company Ferrovial using a huge amount of debt that needed to be paid off. They took a gamble that in their spanish offices probably made sense to them. Their lack of deicing equipment caused the airport to snarl to a halt as they had over thirty planes in their deicing queue on Friday evening (despite them lying that all was fine till Saturday). I guess that once the planes were unable to get away on Friday evening they became even more contaminated by ice such that they were essentially unable to move. The last two years were cold winters, and the current cold snap has been forecast phenomenally well by all and sundry, so they've had plenty of warning even if they were taken in by the "global warming mania". Perhaps they got confused by forecasts that told them that winter would not start till February. That's one jaded way of looking at it Steve, but I didn't forecast for the UK, but for the U.S. Moreover, the UK Met office did not forecast accurately seasonally for the last two winters, nor for the summers. Most meteorological centers have dismal rates forecasting seasonally. This year has been no different. Most of the European airports re-opened, because they were prepared with de-icing equipment, that is, except those at Heathrow. But then again, there were other factors for shutting down the airport that had nothing to do with the weather. However, the global cooling that is on the way, and it is on the way, will demand preparation for colder and stormier winters. This is easy to do with longer-range forecasts when the management isn't taken with the bull of anthropogenic global warming. And, for the 100th time with you - my ENSO forecast was about El Nino/La Nina, which I forecasted years in advance, including a U.S. forecast for December 2010. It is not winter everywhere in the U.S., as the latitude of colder weather remains along northern regions, including the UK globally. I continue to state that the deepest values of La Nina - and serious winter weather - will be felt between February through April 2011. |
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Post by magellan on Dec 22, 2010 23:56:56 GMT
astromet A private compamy BAA has been bought out by another private company Ferrovial using a huge amount of debt that needed to be paid off. They took a gamble that in their spanish offices probably made sense to them. Their lack of deicing equipment caused the airport to snarl to a halt as they had over thirty planes in their deicing queue on Friday evening (despite them lying that all was fine till Saturday). I guess that once the planes were unable to get away on Friday evening they became even more contaminated by ice such that they were essentially unable to move. The last two years were cold winters, and the current cold snap has been forecast phenomenally well by all and sundry, so they've had plenty of warning even if they were taken in by the "global warming mania". Perhaps they got confused by forecasts that told them that winter would not start till February.
the current cold snap has been forecast phenomenally well by all and sundry
Who is all? Met O forecast a mild winter with higher than normal temperatures. www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/208012/Winter-to-be-mild-predicts-Met-Office/ |
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Post by steve on Dec 23, 2010 10:54:35 GMT
If you read chinless-wonder Delingpole's column you should know that:
IIRC the journo misinterpreted some data they scraped from the Met Office website.
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Post by glc on Dec 23, 2010 12:16:07 GMT
And, for the 100th time with you - my ENSO forecast was about El Nino/La Nina, which I forecasted years in advance ....
Astromet
I generally now try to avoid reading anything posted by you. It's not simply down to the fact that most of what you write is wrong or mistaken it's that even when it's clearly shown to be wrong you claim it's correct.
However, you now seem to be saying that your prediction was not just about the El Nino phase of ENSO but about the presence of an ENSO event (either El Nino or La Nina). Several points occur to me:
1. Why did you not make this clear at the time. You had plenty of opportunity and I distinctly remember a number of posters pointing to predictions that were contrary to your own. Why did you not set the record straight then.
2. I cannot see the logic of producing a forecast which combines the presence of El Nino and/or La Nina as a single event. The 2 phases are responsible for totally different weather conditions in specific regions of the world.
3. Between roughly April and June neither El Nino nor La Nina conditions were present, i.e. conditions were neutral. Does this not constitute a break in your "ENSO cycle"? If not how long would it need to remain neutral before the "cycle" had ended? 4 months? 6 months? or do you also include the neutral phase as well.
Using your rules, Astromet, I'm going to predict that an El Nino will be present in 2020 which will continue through to 2025. This of course means that I will also be correct if a La Nina exists and if neither are present then I'll just explain that I meant the ENSO cycle and that we are simply in the neutral phase.
I see how it's done now. Thanks for that.
Just one final comment. I feel that by posting on this blog you are perhaps neglecting your hordes of admiring customers. Pease don't put your business at risk on our account.
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 23, 2010 20:48:55 GMT
And, for the 100th time with you - my ENSO forecast was about El Nino/La Nina, which I forecasted years in advance .... Astromet I generally now try to avoid reading anything posted by you. It's not simply down to the fact that most of what you write is wrong or mistaken it's that even when it's clearly shown to be wrong you claim it's correct. However, you now seem to be saying that your prediction was not just about the El Nino phase of ENSO but about the presence of an ENSO event (either El Nino or La Nina). Several points occur to me: 1. Why did you not make this clear at the time. You had plenty of opportunity and I distinctly remember a number of posters pointing to predictions that were contrary to your own. Why did you not set the record straight then. 2. I cannot see the logic of producing a forecast which combines the presence of El Nino and/or La Nina as a single event. The 2 phases are responsible for totally different weather conditions in specific regions of the world. 3. Between roughly April and June neither El Nino nor La Nina conditions were present, i.e. conditions were neutral. Does this not constitute a break in your "ENSO cycle"? If not how long would it need to remain neutral before the "cycle" had ended? 4 months? 6 months? or do you also include the neutral phase as well. Using your rules, Astromet, I'm going to predict that an El Nino will be present in 2020 which will continue through to 2025. This of course means that I will also be correct if a La Nina exists and if neither are present then I'll just explain that I meant the ENSO cycle and that we are simply in the neutral phase. I see how it's done now. Thanks for that. Just one final comment. I feel that by posting on this blog you are perhaps neglecting your hordes of admiring customers. Pease don't put your business at risk on our account. For one Glc, you couldn't use my astrometeorological rules since you are not an astronomic forecaster. So I don't see how that is possible. Two, one of the reasons why you do not learn about astronomic forecasting is that you avoid reading anything by me. By doing this, you place a stumbling block in front of your own brain, of which you are using less than 10-percent of the power thereof. That is a recipe for continued ignorance. Not learning. In order to forecast long-range, you must do so astronomically, you have to have a baseline science to apply in order to forecast. I do so by the Sun, Moon, planets and magnetic resonances of space. Learn how to read seasonal forecasts produced astronomically. Those who comment negatively are less than novices when it comes to understanding how their own local weather is produced, so it isn't much of a surprise to read ignorant comments on advanced forecasting coming from them. They have much to learn. If you want to forecast long-range, then you must earn it. There are no shortcuts. Simply saying that it isn't so only proves that you are not only ignorant of the history of meteorology, but also proves that it is easier for you not to think than to think for yourself. Look to the skies, to space and the celestial bodies, of which Earth is a part (solar system) and you will come to know the principles which have ruled and regulated the Earth's climate since its origin. Using computer models to forecast from the effects (not the causes) of weather is a dog chasing its own tail. You will learn very little that way and will be unable to forecast, much less understand how major climate events like ENSO come about, much less how they function. The world is round Glc, not square. Events like ENSO are warm/cold events within the engine of the Earth, that is the Pacific Ocean. You treat warm and cold as separate entities without a basic knowledge of how these warm/cold events interact. Also, I am not a proponent of anthropogenic global warming as you Glc, which proves you are very far from understanding what truly drives the Earth's climate. Perhaps that is why you do not see the logic of long-range forecasting. Many more easily see the logic and for very good reasons. As for your El Nino forever - I don't think so. We are clearly on the down-end of solar-forced global warming with about six years remaining on this cycle. We will enter a new cycle, this time global cooling, however, seeing your forever warming mantra: if you continue to go about things that way, you will be very unprepared in the years and decades ahead. A much colder and stormier climate is on tap for the world. |
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Post by magellan on Dec 23, 2010 21:28:14 GMT
If you read chinless-wonder Delingpole's column you should know that: IIRC the journo misinterpreted some data they scraped from the Met Office website. So the government didn't rely on Met O for it's poor decisions? |
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Post by glc on Dec 24, 2010 11:06:43 GMT
Also, I am not a proponent of anthropogenic global warming as you Glc, which proves you are very far from understanding what truly drives the Earth's climate. Perhaps that is why you do not see the logic of long-range forecasting. Many more easily see the logic and for very good reasons.
Not on this blog they don't.
As for your El Nino forever - I don't think so. We are clearly on the down-end of solar-forced global warming with about six years remaining on this cycle.
What on earth are you talking about? Which cycle? I was talking about the ENSO cycle and "my prediction" was effectively for that to continue. Are you saying the El Nino/La Nina cycles will not continue?
We will enter a new cycle, this time global cooling, however, seeing your forever warming mantra: if you continue to go about things that way, you will be very unprepared in the years and decades ahead. A much colder and stormier climate is on tap for the world
Whether or not it's warming or cooling I don't see what this has to do with the ENSO cycle (apart from the fact that relative frequency of the La Nina/El Nino phases may change).
You don't appear to understand the fundamental difference between El Nino (warmer SST) and La Nina (cooler SST). One does not necessarily follow the other so they are not a complete cycle in that respect. Your claimed success in predicting El Nino is, therefore, total hogwash. However when I claim ENSO conditions will be present in 2020 - because according to you El Nino/La Nina/neutral are all phases of the El Nino cycle - you ramble on about the "warming cycle" ending.
When did the warm cycle start, by the way?
When did the last warm cycle end?
and what has this got to do with the ENSO?
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Post by icefisher on Dec 24, 2010 18:26:48 GMT
Astromet
I generally now try to avoid reading anything posted by you.
-Followed by two pages of criticisms of Astromet's forecasting ability, deleted-
It seems to be a pattern of yours to skip read and then criticize. It was evident in your discussion of primary responses to TOA summed attenuation of the GHE where you kept disregarding the relocation of heat in the atmosphere system and never identified the source of the outgoing radiation, merely concluding it all originates from the ground. But thats another story. You are missing points in this story. El Nino and La Nina tend to only be closely coupled around solar minimums. At other times ENSO events are relatively widely spaced. Using NOAAs definitions of ENSO there has to be a gap between El Nino and La Nina to allow a transition. Neutral non-ENSO should probably be consistently defined (5 months). That would mean neutrals were only absent following the 1976, 86, 96, and 2008 minimums in the last 35 years and they were absent there every time. You need to not be so closed minded and then clumsily throw out a prediction of your own as if you had clue one. I am not sure what you expect. What he does and what even illustrious practicalists and scientists like Benjamin Franklin did was observe, listen, ask questions on these topics. . . .not just go on some kind of elitist crusade of something akin to I am a wannabee scientist/famous scientist and what you do I only have time to criticize and not pay any attention to. I have been around a long time and one thing I have learned that everybody who has devoted a lot of years at learning a craft is worth listening to. . . .not necessarily believing. . . .but taking careful consideration of. . . .at least as long as they have not compromised their integrity by producing hoaxes. This is a lesson a lot of scientists need to learn that integrity is more important than method. Astromet may not speak in the language you have learned but that is a product of his study of something else or a different approach. Criticizing Astromet based upon your limited sycophant-like definitions of ENSO by NOAA merely portrays your ignorance of interdisciplinary communications and are focusing on form over substance. I am interested in his predictions of colder temps for late winter and spring and I am interested in the 6 year prediction of his. I am aware that he missed the cold transition via the "official" definition of El Nino but also I know that nobody has a great record on these kinds of forecasts and I am not sure of the basis of why you seem to think everything that happens is consistent with what you believe in. One thing is clear is if La Nina strengthens in late winter and early spring, Astromet will have beaten the pants off of NOAA and 22 international ENSO modeling groups and they are not even forecasting out as far as Astromet. NOAA didn't forecast a La Nina at all (picking an extended Modoki neutral period following the El Nino of 2009/10) |
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 26, 2010 8:05:37 GMT
Astromet
I generally now try to avoid reading anything posted by you.
-Followed by two pages of criticisms of Astromet's forecasting ability, deleted-
It seems to be a pattern of yours to skip read and then criticize. It was evident in your discussion of primary responses to TOA summed attenuation of the GHE where you kept disregarding the relocation of heat in the atmosphere system and never identified the source of the outgoing radiation, merely concluding it all originates from the ground. But thats another story. You are missing points in this story. El Nino and La Nina tend to only be closely coupled around solar minimums. At other times ENSO events are relatively widely spaced. Using NOAAs definitions of ENSO there has to be a gap between El Nino and La Nina to allow a transition. Neutral non-ENSO should probably be consistently defined (5 months). That would mean neutrals were only absent following the 1976, 86, 96, and 2008 minimums in the last 35 years and they were absent there every time. You need to not be so closed minded and then clumsily throw out a prediction of your own as if you had clue one. I am not sure what you expect. What he does and what even illustrious practicalists and scientists like Benjamin Franklin did was observe, listen, ask questions on these topics. . . .not just go on some kind of elitist crusade of something akin to I am a wannabee scientist/famous scientist and what you do I only have time to criticize and not pay any attention to. I have been around a long time and one thing I have learned that everybody who has devoted a lot of years at learning a craft is worth listening to. . . .not necessarily believing. . . .but taking careful consideration of. . . .at least as long as they have not compromised their integrity by producing hoaxes. This is a lesson a lot of scientists need to learn that integrity is more important than method. Astromet may not speak in the language you have learned but that is a product of his study of something else or a different approach. Criticizing Astromet based upon your limited sycophant-like definitions of ENSO by NOAA merely portrays your ignorance of interdisciplinary communications and are focusing on form over substance. I am interested in his predictions of colder temps for late winter and spring and I am interested in the 6 year prediction of his. I am aware that he missed the cold transition via the "official" definition of El Nino but also I know that nobody has a great record on these kinds of forecasts and I am not sure of the basis of why you seem to think everything that happens is consistent with what you believe in. One thing is clear is if La Nina strengthens in late winter and early spring, Astromet will have beaten the pants off of NOAA and 22 international ENSO modeling groups and they are not even forecasting out as far as Astromet. NOAA didn't forecast a La Nina at all (picking an extended Modoki neutral period following the El Nino of 2009/10) That's basically the brunt of it Icefisher. Well said. What is amazing about people like that is that they often want to play forecaster rather than actually learning how to do it. Few people saw the ENSO 2010-2011 coming, and most did not see La Nina coming either. In fact, when I forecasted ENSO back in 2006, most did not see it that way. Nonetheless, the astronomic signals were, and now are there, and here we are in an ENSO-state that is quite powerful. This was the year of the flood, and we are now entering into the second phase of ENSO which is La Nina. The negative values, along with the expected polar air treatment I expect this winter will make it wetter and colder than normal, as forecasted. For the U.S., the astronomic signals I saw gave way to this December 2010 forecast I wrote several years back in my ENSO forecast: "December 2010 continues the stormy, wet, and windy weather across regions of the nation; especially for the Mid-Atlantic, Southeastern U..S., and the central Midwestern states. There are rare tornado activity at the end of November, and into early December stretching from the Central Midwestern states into the Ohio Valley and parts of western Pennsylvania.
The last 2-3 days of November, and the first week of December 2010 is particularly stormy across the nation; stormy seas in the Gulf of Alaska; torrential rains stretching from the Great Lakes through the central Midwest and extending down into the Gulf of Mexico.
Dense fogs in the valleys of the Great Plains lead to below average cold temperatures and snowfall in the Desert Southwest; snow also falls in the Pocono Mountains of Pennsylvania, in Appalachia, and in the central Texas/Oklahoma panhandle, where winds, heavy rains lead to flooding.
The month of December 2010 is a very stormy month for most of the United States and offers a bit of everything from damaging winds, heavy torrential rains, blizzards, dense fogs, and thunder snow.
Radical and sudden temperatures shifts due the interplay between large warm and cold pressure systems that track through the country led by a powerful jet stream raging storms from the west to the southwest and then into southeastern U.S., and from the Northwest into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and the Northeastern U.S.
December 2010 will turn out to be one of the more significant weather months of the year before the climate weather settles down across most of the nation significantly by December 28, 2010."The astronomic signals going into this winter are odd. I won't get into advanced details, however, the formulas I use in long-range forecasting points to a very strong La Nina which is at its height between February - April 2011. Overall, I estimated that the La Nina phase will last about nine (9) months to about mid-August 2011 and then weaken more or less to relative values before we see sea surface temperatures start to warm back up in 2012. The cooler-than-normal temperatures at present for the northern and southern latitudes, as well as for the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. extend into spring 2011 and the first half of summer. Those on the weather boards who like to play with computer models and discuss only the short-range are missing the more important and bigger picture of what's coming in the climate - and that's not global warming. There's nothing we can do about climate change. The only thing we are able to do is forecast and then make preparations. That is in our power. We cannot change the climate to what we want. The Sun, planets and space are the causes, all we can do is adjust to the climate change in advance. It will take time for people like Glc to open his eyes to the causes of climate and weather, but the clock is ticking. The transitional state we are in is leading to a new climatic change, and man has very little to do with that, but will have to live with it by preparing. Astronomic forecasting gives us that advantage so we can prepare for the future. Once the short-range gallery out there starts looking at space weather, only then will they be able to get on the path towards astronomical forecasting. Opinions do not make forecasts, nor does ideology. Those who cannot forecast long-range are in no position to be critical of it since ignorance of this scientific application is not a remedy for their dismissive attitudes. If people think global warming is something - just wait for global cooling. I tell you, it is on the way, in a major way too, with stronger storms, floods and colder-than-normal average temperatures. My projections, in my ENSO forecast indicated to me several years back that this transitional climate state is showing us what to expect down the road when we enter a new global cooling cycle later this decade. |
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 27, 2010 0:00:03 GMT
astromet A private compamy BAA has been bought out by another private company Ferrovial using a huge amount of debt that needed to be paid off. They took a gamble that in their spanish offices probably made sense to them. Their lack of deicing equipment caused the airport to snarl to a halt as they had over thirty planes in their deicing queue on Friday evening (despite them lying that all was fine till Saturday). I guess that once the planes were unable to get away on Friday evening they became even more contaminated by ice such that they were essentially unable to move. The last two years were cold winters, and the current cold snap has been forecast phenomenally well by all and sundry, so they've had plenty of warning even if they were taken in by the "global warming mania". Perhaps they got confused by forecasts that told them that winter would not start till February.
the current cold snap has been forecast phenomenally well by all and sundry
Who is all? Met O forecast a mild winter with higher than normal temperatures. www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/208012/Winter-to-be-mild-predicts-Met-Office/Other than Piers Corbyn, who forecasted the UK winter to be harsh applying astronomic techniques, the Met Office failed again to forecast seasonally. We are seeing astronomic causes on northern latitude nations show signs of what is to come the rest of this winter. For instance, in Moscow, the rains turning to ice have started. See -> news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101226/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_europe_weatherWe will see a kind of mini "ice age" this winter due to the condition of the Sun, it's effect on La Nina and the combined influences of volcanic ash particles in the upper atmosphere. This coming new year, as was 2010, will be a year of broken weather records. |
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 27, 2010 23:33:25 GMT
Looks very much like the double dip La Nina could be a possibility. Not a double-dip La Nina, but just a strong one. My ENSO forecast called for La Nina into 2011 and that's what we continue to see. The northern latitude countries have already been experiencing colder than normal temperatures and heavy snows. Regions further south have gotten a taste of the winter to come; especially the period from February through April 2011. The lack of accurate seasonal forecasting by modeling groups, NOAA/NWS and Met Offices is nothing new. The failure rates have been bad for many decades because they are not able to forecast long-range, much less seasonally. La Nina will be with us at least through to August 2011, when I expect negative values to weaken; however, we will continue to see wetter and colder climate conditions, peaking by March/April 2011. |
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Post by glc on Dec 28, 2010 11:28:24 GMT
It seems to be a pattern of yours to skip read and then criticize. It was evident in your discussion of primary responses to TOA summed attenuation of the GHE where you kept disregarding the relocation of heat in the atmosphere system and never identified the source of the outgoing radiation, merely concluding it all originates from the groundIcefisher I said it was pointless discussing this with you because you struggle with the concept of IR transmission through the atmosphere. But let me make a few points clear: I never said or "concluded" that outgoing radiation is emitted DIRECTLY from the ground. It's clearly not. If it were the earth would be considerably colder than it currently is. Radiation is emitted from the TOA. The TOA is not a precisely defined layer in the troposphere but rather a position where the radiation received by the earth has been emittd to space. Some is emitted from the surface (IR window), some from atmospheric water vapour, and some ultimately from CO2. There are thousands of absorptions and emissions - both UP and DOWN - going on all the time before radiation is finally emitted to space. Here is an emssion spectrum graph www.barrettbellamyclimate.com/page15.htmHave a good look at it. Note how emission is from different temperature layers (altitudes) dependant on the concentration og ghgs. Energy from the surface finds it's way up to these layers by radiation and also by evaporation and convection. But energy can only leave the atmosphere BY RADIATION. The Surface emits ~390 w/m2 of radiant energy. This is driven by the surface temperature. If we increase Ghgs in the atmosphere the surface temperature will increase. That will almost certainly result in a convection/evaporation feedback - but this will act to further increase the ghg effect. Your argument seems to be that the increase in evaporation and convection will transport heat to an altitude where it can be emitted "quicker" to space. But your numbers were all over the place. You hadn't considered the multiple absorptions and emissions throughout the atmosphere. To be honest there's no point in trying to point out the errors and the irrelevance in you posts because you don't appear to have the basic understanding. However, if you think you've found a strongly negative feedback mechanism then try emailing Spencer or Lindzen. I'm sure they would be glad to hear it. Let me just end with this quote from Lindzen For example, if one simply doubles the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, the temperature increase is about 1°C.See wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/30/lindzen-on-negative-climate-feedback/So Lindzen, with more than 30 years experience in climate science, recognises the relevance of the 1 deg no feedback estimate (along with several other leading scientists) but icefisher (and Jim Cripwell), despite having little or no understanding of the physics of the atmosphere and how it relates to the surface argue against him.
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