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Post by magellan on Dec 30, 2010 2:10:35 GMT
astromet Reference please? I'm aware of the warning he issued in the middle of the cold spell and long after everyone else (including his bete noir) had issued snow forecasts. Since Astromet was piled on in recent months, now it is your turn. You said: I'm aware of the warning he issued in the middle of the cold spell and long after everyone else (including his bete noir) had issued snow forecasts.
References please, including forecasts for record cold. It is not difficult to find forecasts by Piers Corbyn throughout the web (and this forum), and you likely know they exist but are playing games. Nonetheless, www.americanthinker.com/2010/12/the_winner_of_this_years_best.htmlweatheraction.com/climaterealists.com/attachments/ftp/WAnews34.pdfThis is Piers Corbyn's detailed forecast dated November with references to June.  tinyurl.com/2ukfekxIn July, it won a five-year contract to supply weather forecasts to the BBC. So BBC gives a 5 year contract to Met O for weather forecasts but no "long range forecasts"? Uh huh. Also, your claim of news outlets "scraping" Met O improperly is odd as Met O posted "warmer than normal" temps and then denied making any forecasts. Was it just for fun? The caveat is they stopped providing forecasts for the public, and as they are funded with 170M of tax payer money, are we to believe government officials didn't consult Met O? How then did the UK get caught with their pants down? 5 days (Met O's self described forecast ability) is not enough time to prepare for 'once in a century' winters. |
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 30, 2010 3:29:30 GMT
Yes, and the main problem (again) is that until these people wake up they will not be able to "get it" when it comes to astronomic forecasting and its accuracy. These forecasts are given long-range, so there's plenty of time to prepare even in the most general ways for snow emergencies like the December 2010 events - which were forecasted in advance by the likes of Corbyn in the U.K., and me in the U.S. Look here at what the lack of preparation has caused in New York City and along the east coast -> www.nytimes.com/2010/12/30/nyregion/30response.html?hpThe main problem was the NWS timing. They relied on their computer models which told them that the storm would go out into the sea and not affect the eastern seaboard. Once I saw that I was not surprised because the NWS often waits until the last minute to correct their forecasts. These met offices cannot forecast seasonally. They know it too, but for the life of me they do not figure out that they cannot run an office of long-range forecasters without actually having some, and they do not. Rather, many of these met offices are staffed and run by people who cannot forecast. They rely on computer models that "report" the weather rather than forecasting it, and often wait until the last minute before making significant warnings - all to the chagrin of long-range forecasters, and, of course, the general public, who suffers the most. This fact of not being able to properly forecast using computer models with stormtracking radar already plotting the storm is common with meteorologists who show the inability to time events, much less forecast them a month, or even two weeks in advance. I keep saying things are a mess in climate science and meteorology because it is the truth. There is no getting around this fact and the events of December clearly prove it. What is needed is a complete shake-out of climate/met offices and new leadership that offers emergency management forecasts that allow cities to prepare - saving lives, time, property and money. Right now, what we have is a generational management clearly outworn and out of touch with realities and it shows in these events as it has with other weather events. Things will not change until those who have outworn their usefulness are put quickly out to pasture. Enough is enough. |
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Post by magellan on Dec 30, 2010 3:58:06 GMT
Yes, and the main problem (again) is that until these people wake up they will not be able to "get it" when it comes to astronomic forecasting and its accuracy. These forecasts are given long-range, so there's plenty of time to prepare even in the most general ways for snow emergencies like the December 2010 events - which were forecasted in advance by the likes of Corbyn in the U.K., and me in the U.S. Look here at what the lack of preparation has caused in New York City and along the east coast -> www.nytimes.com/2010/12/30/nyregion/30response.html?hpThe main problem was the NWS timing. They relied on their computer models which told them that the storm would go out into the sea and not affect the eastern seaboard. Once I saw that I was not surprised because the NWS often waits until the last minute to correct their forecasts. These met offices cannot forecast seasonally. They know it too, but for the life of me they do not figure out that they cannot run an office of long-range forecasters without actually having some, and they do not. Rather, many of these met offices are staffed and run by people who cannot forecast. They rely on computer models that "report" the weather rather than forecasting it, and often wait until the last minute before making significant warnings - all to the chagrin of long-range forecasters, and, of course, the general public, who suffers the most. This fact of not being able to properly forecast using computer models with stormtracking radar already plotting the storm is common with meteorologists who show the inability to time events, much less forecast them a month, or even two weeks in advance. I keep saying things are a mess in climate science and meteorology because it is the truth. There is no getting around this fact and the events of December clearly prove it. What is needed is a complete shake-out of climate/met offices and new leadership that offers emergency management forecasts that allow cities to prepare - saving lives, time, property and money. Right now, what we have is a generational management clearly outworn and out of touch with realities and it shows in these events as it has with other weather events. Things will not change until those who have outworn their usefulness are put quickly out to pasture. Enough is enough. At least the public was spared Met O's non-forecast forecast  This was posted already, but it's still got some mileage. The green hijack of the Met Office is crippling BritainWe might start with the strange affair of the Quarmby Review. Shortly after Philip Hammond became Transport Secretary last May, he commissioned David Quarmby, a former head of the Strategic Rail Authority, to look into how we might avoid a repeat of last winter’s disruption. In July and again in October, Mr Quarmby produced two reports on “The Resilience of England’s Transport System in Winter”; and at the start of this month, after our first major snowfall, Mr Quarmby and two colleagues were asked to produce an “audit” of their earlier findings.
The essence of their message was that they had consulted the Met Office, which advised them that, despite two harsh winters in succession, these were “random events”, the chances of which, after our long previous run of mild winters, were only 20 to one. Similarly, they were told in the summer, the odds against a third such winter were still only 20 to one. So it might not be wise to spend billions of pounds preparing for another “random event”, when its likelihood was so small. Following this logic, if the odds against a hard winter two years ago were only 20 to one, it might have been thought that the odds against a third such “random event” were not 20 to one but 20 x 20 x 20, or 8,000 to one. Just keep repeating; Met O doesn't release forecasts to the public and that gets them off the hook. |
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 30, 2010 4:25:54 GMT
Yes, and the main problem (again) is that until these people wake up they will not be able to "get it" when it comes to astronomic forecasting and its accuracy. These forecasts are given long-range, so there's plenty of time to prepare even in the most general ways for snow emergencies like the December 2010 events - which were forecasted in advance by the likes of Corbyn in the U.K., and me in the U.S. Look here at what the lack of preparation has caused in New York City and along the east coast -> www.nytimes.com/2010/12/30/nyregion/30response.html?hpThe main problem was the NWS timing. They relied on their computer models which told them that the storm would go out into the sea and not affect the eastern seaboard. Once I saw that I was not surprised because the NWS often waits until the last minute to correct their forecasts. These met offices cannot forecast seasonally. They know it too, but for the life of me they do not figure out that they cannot run an office of long-range forecasters without actually having some, and they do not. Rather, many of these met offices are staffed and run by people who cannot forecast. They rely on computer models that "report" the weather rather than forecasting it, and often wait until the last minute before making significant warnings - all to the chagrin of long-range forecasters, and, of course, the general public, who suffers the most. This fact of not being able to properly forecast using computer models with stormtracking radar already plotting the storm is common with meteorologists who show the inability to time events, much less forecast them a month, or even two weeks in advance. I keep saying things are a mess in climate science and meteorology because it is the truth. There is no getting around this fact and the events of December clearly prove it. What is needed is a complete shake-out of climate/met offices and new leadership that offers emergency management forecasts that allow cities to prepare - saving lives, time, property and money. Right now, what we have is a generational management clearly outworn and out of touch with realities and it shows in these events as it has with other weather events. Things will not change until those who have outworn their usefulness are put quickly out to pasture. Enough is enough. At least the public was spared Met O's non-forecast forecast This was posted already, but it's still got some mileage. The green hijack of the Met Office is crippling BritainWe might start with the strange affair of the Quarmby Review. Shortly after Philip Hammond became Transport Secretary last May, he commissioned David Quarmby, a former head of the Strategic Rail Authority, to look into how we might avoid a repeat of last winter’s disruption. In July and again in October, Mr Quarmby produced two reports on “The Resilience of England’s Transport System in Winter”; and at the start of this month, after our first major snowfall, Mr Quarmby and two colleagues were asked to produce an “audit” of their earlier findings.
The essence of their message was that they had consulted the Met Office, which advised them that, despite two harsh winters in succession, these were “random events”, the chances of which, after our long previous run of mild winters, were only 20 to one. Similarly, they were told in the summer, the odds against a third such winter were still only 20 to one. So it might not be wise to spend billions of pounds preparing for another “random event”, when its likelihood was so small. Following this logic, if the odds against a hard winter two years ago were only 20 to one, it might have been thought that the odds against a third such “random event” were not 20 to one but 20 x 20 x 20, or 8,000 to one. Just keep repeating; Met O doesn't release forecasts to the public and that gets them off the hook. A good one Magellan, which proves, by the way, that the Met Office gambles, but does not forecast. It also has proven the misery of the man-made global warming cliques and cabals who haven't got a true forecasting bone in their bodies. This, from the British Daily Mail ~"Britain’s most tenacious ‘climate change denier’ Christopher Booker, occasionally of this parish, has just revealed the real reason why this country was so ill-prepared for the Arctic weather.
Airports, rail operators and local authorities all subscribe to the Met Office’s long-term forecasts. And over the past few years, the Met Office has become evangelical about ‘man-made global warming’.
Every weather forecast is now extruded through the prism of so-called climate change, even when all evidence points to the fact that the Earth is actually getting colder.
The Met Office’s predictions are based on a computer model which assumes ever-rising temperatures — so much so that it forecast that this winter would be significantly milder than the past two years.
Even though the winters of 2008 and 2009 were ferociously cold, they were dismissed as ‘random events’. The Met Office put the odds on a third harsh winter no higher than 20-1.
Those responsible for keeping our transport network running were stupid enough to swallow this bogus, optimistic forecast, and consequently failed to make proper provision for the blizzards which duly followed.
This, of course, was the same Met Office which predicted a ‘barbecue summer’ shortly before Britain was hit by gales and widespread flooding.
For this wildly inaccurate and deliberately skewed service, the British taxpayer is charged a staggering £200million a year.
Needless to say, the head of the Met Office is not even a weatherman. He’s a leading ‘climate change activist’ who buys into the propaganda pumped out by the fanatics at the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit (CRU) - exposed for blatantly suppressing evidence which contradicts their messianic belief in ‘global warming’.
Back in 2000, the CRU’s Dr David Viner told The Independent that winter snowfalls would soon be a thing of the past. ‘Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,’ he predicted confidently.
Even when they are proved wrong, the warmists will never admit it.
They simply move the goalposts — which is how global warming morphed into ‘climate change’.
You can’t argue with them. That’s because ‘climate change’ isn’t a science, it’s a religion.
Skeptics are trashed as heretics.
The climate change lobby is a curious mix of cultists and cynical opportunists. As I write, Sky News is spotlighting a project on Humberside aimed at brainwashing children into believing that wind is the fuel of the future."Again, they must be let go. Fired and retired, for good. If not, then all Met offices will continue their failure rate of seasonal and long-range climate forecasting - which is much closer to zero than those of astronomic forecasters. Our error rate, at maximum, is 15% - meaning we manage to get 8 out of 10 of our seasonal and long-range forecasts correct. Only skilled and experienced astronomic forecasters can produce reliable seasonal forecasts. Once this is accepted by conventional forecasters, they will be able to begin learning how to do so, but at present, there are no Met Offices with their meteorologists or climatologists who can forecast accurately seasonally. The problem, as seen with Climategate, are unskilled, ideological careerists concerned with their "contracts" with cities and nations, to maintain the illusion that they can forecast three months in advance - which is common for astronomic forecasters. Until the shakeout occurs of present senior management and then young forecasters learn how to forecast with success rates higher than their present three-percent (3%) - we will continue to see these guesses and "non-forecast forecasts," as you call them, proliferate. The ideological age of man-made global warming has been a total disaster. That much is clear. It has caused massive amounts of money to be wasted on a total lie as well as caused bad feelings among "skeptics" who battled for years in calling out the fact that AGW was never true to begin with. The time is coming for true climate science and this includes astronomic forecasting. This is the future of meteorology and climatology. |
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Post by glc on Dec 30, 2010 18:42:47 GMT
I've just read Piers Corbyn's forecast and am wondering what use it might have been. He was right about it being cold - but in November we'd already had the first wave of cold and even the local news weather men were telling us to expect colder conditions. In fact, they banged on about it every night for about 10 days before it eventually arrived.
But Piers talks about "blizzards and snow deluges over christmas day/boxing day". We didn't get any blizzards over christmas. In fact, christmas day itself was a peach. I went for a 6 mile walk in bright sunshine - and not a single cloud in the sky. I can't remember us getting any snow after about the 20th December.
What about Devon, Steve?
I'm sure some places got more snow than us (we only got a few inches) but most of the heavier snowfalls were well before christmas. He also reckons snow returns on New Years Day. Though, we don't really know where. I doubt we'll get much if any - so again not much use.
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 31, 2010 0:25:58 GMT
I've just read Piers Corbyn's forecast and am wondering what use it might have been. He was right about it being cold - but in November we'd already had the first wave of cold and even the local news weather men were telling us to expect colder conditions. In fact, they banged on about it every night for about 10 days before it eventually arrived. But Piers talks about "blizzards and snow deluges over christmas day/boxing day". We didn't get any blizzards over christmas. In fact, christmas day itself was a peach. I went for a 6 mile walk in bright sunshine - and not a single cloud in the sky. I can't remember us getting any snow after about the 20th December. What about Devon, Steve? I'm sure some places got more snow than us (we only got a few inches) but most of the heavier snowfalls were well before christmas. He also reckons snow returns on New Years Day. Though, we don't really know where. I doubt we'll get much if any - so again not much use. Long-range and seasonal forecasts are always of "use" Glc, which is something you just do not seem to get. The resulting weather in the UK disrupted Christmas travel internationally, if you haven't been watching events. One of the problems that people like you have is that you theorize to no end about the climate then go on a short-range and quite limited view of events based only on your particular local weather. Again, this is one the major issues you have is that you only see what you want to see through the prism of your own limited thinking: that isn't forecasting and has nothing at all to do with the world's climate and weather. |
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Post by glc on Dec 31, 2010 12:27:27 GMT
Long-range and seasonal forecasts are always of "use" Glc, which is something you just do not seem to get. The resulting weather in the UK disrupted Christmas travel internationally, if you haven't been watching events.
"watching events"? I live slap bang in the middle of the UK. We were given at least 10 days notice of the weaher conditons by the local weather stations. There was no disruption to me.
Piers Corbyn told us there would be "blizzards and snow deluges over christmas day and boxing day". That was crap. Both christmas day and boxing day were clear. Christmas day, in particular was gorgeous.
Piers Corbyn's forecast was of no use whatsoever.
One of the problems that people like you have is that you theorize to no end about the climate then go on a short-range and quite limited view of events based only on your particular local weather.
In this case my "local weather" was relevant to the forecast. I live in the middle of England which is the largest country in the UK. Corbyn's forecast was useless to me. In fact, I would suggest it was useless to anyone living in the majority of the UK since the heaviest snowfall happened at least a week before xmas.
My local weather station had the forecast right to the hour.
And , pease stop keep telling me about conditions in the UK. I live here.
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Post by AstroMet on Dec 31, 2010 14:32:38 GMT
Long-range and seasonal forecasts are always of "use" Glc, which is something you just do not seem to get. The resulting weather in the UK disrupted Christmas travel internationally, if you haven't been watching events."watching events"? I live slap bang in the middle of the UK. We were given at least 10 days notice of the weaher conditons by the local weather stations. There was no disruption to me. Piers Corbyn told us there would be "blizzards and snow deluges over christmas day and boxing day". That was crap. Both christmas day and boxing day were clear. Christmas day, in particular was gorgeous. Piers Corbyn's forecast was of no use whatsoever. One of the problems that people like you have is that you theorize to no end about the climate then go on a short-range and quite limited view of events based only on your particular local weather.In this case my "local weather" was relevant to the forecast. I live in the middle of England which is the largest country in the UK. Corbyn's forecast was useless to me. In fact, I would suggest it was useless to anyone living in the majority of the UK since the heaviest snowfall happened at least a week before xmas. My local weather station had the forecast right to the hour. And , pease stop keep telling me about conditions in the UK. I live here. Well if you live there, then you must not have been outside in the month of December Glc, that's for sure. "December 25th and nights before and after were some of the coldest ever recorded in the UK especially in Shropshire in the West Midlands." What planet are you on now Glc? See -> climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6914&linkbox=true&position=6Piers Corybn is a long-range forecaster, who not only beat the UK Met Office, but forecasted Europe's recent climate event which, by the way, shut down Heathrow Airport. |
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Post by icefisher on Dec 31, 2010 14:36:22 GMT
My local weather station had the forecast right to the hour. As Steve requested on Piers how about you give us a link to the November 29, or earlier, local weather station Christmas forecast for your area? |
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Post by glc on Dec 31, 2010 16:19:33 GMT
Well if you live there, then you must not have been outside in the month of December Glc, that's for sure.
Are you having trouble understanding? I go for a walk most days. I have been out EVERY single day in December. I rarely walk less than 5 miles. On Christmas day I walked over 6 miles. It was the best xmas day weather-wise I can remember. There were several other people out walking as well.
December 25th and nights before and after were some of the coldest ever recorded in the UK especially in Shropshire in the West Midlands."
I live in West Midlands. The nights were some of the coldest December nights - nowhere near the coldest ever recorded. Even so I also went out at night. I went to a local club on christmas night and boxing night (26th) .... and christmas eve (24th) and several other nights besides.
The weather caused me no disruption whatsoever.
What planet are you on now Glc?
Probably not the same one as you. However, I do live in central England so I do know what I'm talking about. It did not snow on Christmas Day nor did it snow on Boxing Day. The last snowfall was around a week before christmas.
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Post by glc on Dec 31, 2010 16:24:52 GMT
As Steve requested on Piers how about you give us a link to the November 29, or earlier, local weather station Christmas forecast for your area?
The weather bulletins were from local TV programmes. I do recall a few newspaper articles on the expected extreme conditions but can't remember the exact dates, but let me assure you we were given plenty of advanced warning about the snow.
Piers Corbyn's forecast was a big fat waste of space. The christmas period was by and large, clear and dry.
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Post by icefisher on Dec 31, 2010 16:59:43 GMT
The weather bulletins were from local TV programmes. I do recall a few newspaper articles on the expected extreme conditions but can't remember the exact dates, but let me assure you we were given plenty of advanced warning about the snow. Piers Corbyn's forecast was a big fat waste of space. The christmas period was by and large, clear and dry. It seems to me Piers got December right and you are calling his forecast useless because he didn't get a specific day right? We saw a year or two ago where the Met forecast as mild winter and the road departments in the UK were caught undersupplied and the UK practically shut down. You see no value in longer term forecasts even if the specific day might be wrong? |
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Post by glc on Dec 31, 2010 17:43:19 GMT
It seems to me Piers got December right and you are calling his forecast useless because he didn't get a specific day right?
It's not just a "specific day". The whole week before christmas was dry. In fact, it was the driest week 51 ever recorded in our neck of the woods. THe forecast wasn't much use from that point of view.
We saw a year or two ago where the Met forecast as mild winter and the road departments in the UK were caught undersupplied and the UK practically shut down.
Two things you need to know about the UK
1. It's always under-prepared whatever the eventutality. A couple of inches of snow can often bring everything to a standstill.
2. The press love to exaggerate the situation. Contrary to what you might read in the papers most of us went about our day to day lives with very little disruption.
You see no value in longer term forecasts even if the specific day might be wrong?
Not really. What use is a forecast if it's out by a week or more. You might postpone a trip or an event only to find the bad weather conditions arrive on the newly arranged date.
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Post by trbixler on Dec 31, 2010 17:49:46 GMT
Trick photography or photo shop like the IPCC flooding? " UK snow: Britain in gridlock as big freeze brings Christmas travel misery"  "A man makes a giant snowball in Ealing, west London. The Met Office said the conditions are likely to make this the coldest December on record. Photograph: Kirsty Wigglesworth/AP" www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/dec/18/uk-snow-travel-disruption-christmas |
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Post by steve on Dec 31, 2010 18:34:26 GMT
Magellan, perhaps you don't understand that forecasting requires a number of different inputs, and they may not all give the same signal. Again, my recollection was that the journo was criticised for misunderstanding this, and in addition the critic suggested that most of the signals were for a cold winter. But I can't find the article so I can't check it.
If Piers has forecast details then the details should be examined. He gets a plus for going for a very cold winter - though he does tend to predict a lot of extreme weather that doesn't then happen.
"far SW England less cold with short milder SW air flows". No it suffered the same cold for the same periods and got lots more snow than normal.
"Scotland probably drier than other parts". Is this the forecast that the Scottish transport minister was using - remember he had to resign for failing to deal with the snow adequately.
"frequent black ice and freezing fog". Was there much of a black ice issue? Mostly it was cold and snowy which does not tend to result in black ice. Certainly not in Yorkshire, Devon or Berkshire - three places from which I get regular reports.
The last snow in Devon happened the Monday morning, 5 days before Christmas. I was in Yorkshire over Christmas. Christmas Eve was light cloud and cold - the Wharfe was frozen at Bolton Abbey, and I was able to cross without use of the stepping stones. On Christmas day it rained a little bit, and the thaw was beginning to burst pipes!
"active low pressures dominate south europe/biscay" - certainly the first couple of weeks, south europe was getting the same cold weather. Below freezing for a few nights in Toulouse.
So nearly all the details of his forecast are wrong.
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