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Post by glc on Dec 31, 2010 19:48:10 GMT
Trick photography or photo shop like the IPCC flooding? " UK snow: Britain in gridlock as big freeze brings Christmas travel misery"  "A man makes a giant snowball in Ealing, west London. The Met Office said the conditions are likely to make this the coldest December on record. Photograph: Kirsty Wigglesworth/AP" www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/dec/18/uk-snow-travel-disruption-christmasGosh look at all that snow in Ealing. It looks like it might even be covering the tops of his shoes. Still it looks a bit more than what we got. Steve: I know the South West got heavy snowfall a few weeks back but has there been much since. We haven't seen a single snowflake for at least 10 days - despite what the american and australian bloggers keep posting. |
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 31, 2010 23:11:29 GMT
Funny thing.......I will take GLC's word verses the press. Last winter/spring there was a fine fellow who was trying to discredit me every day with my observations of local climate.
I got frustrated with him as he didn't have a clue what he was talking about.
When someone reports 1st hand knowledge, I take it as a given. There is no one on this board who is so fanatical pro AGW that they will knowingly post a lie. At least that is my feeling.
Sure, there is a lot of grey area in AGW discussions, but that is BECAUSE there is a lot of grey area in AGW.
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Post by raveninghorde on Jan 1, 2011 0:06:56 GMT
GLC:
It seems to me Piers got December right and you are calling his forecast useless because he didn't get a specific day right?
It's not just a "specific day". The whole week before christmas was dry. In fact, it was the driest week 51 ever recorded in our neck of the woods. THe forecast wasn't much use from that point of view.
Not in North Bucks. We had enough snow on 21st that my work force went home mid morning. The courier company wouldn't collect my last shipment of the year on 22nd because of snow.
Night temperatures didn't get above 0C until 25th.
I think you are treating the long term forecasts too parochially.
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Post by glc on Jan 1, 2011 0:32:01 GMT
Not in North Bucks. We had enough snow on 21st that my work force went home mid morning. The courier company wouldn't collect my last shipment of the year on 22nd because of snow.
Pathetic! In 1963 I had to get 2 buses to get to school. I never missed a day. Now run along and check the CET average temperature for Jan 1963 and compare it with December 2010 .
Night temperatures didn't get above 0C until 25th.
Totally irrelevant. There was very little snow after the 20th. So it was cold at night - big deal. The days were dry and clear.
I think you are treating the long term forecasts until 25th too parchially
What's that supposed to mean? Did you get blizzards on the 25th or 26th December or in the days before? Obviously you, like everyone else born after 1960, thinks that everything should shut down if we get a few flakes of snow. Oh dear me - was it cold? Ah - bless. The snow on xmas day had been laying for the best part of a week. Corbyn's forecast was totally useless.
Did you not hear the weather forecasts leading up to the main snowfall?
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Post by socold on Jan 1, 2011 2:09:10 GMT
Well new years eve isn't bitterly cold. But then how could he possibly forecast a day that far out? He forecasts snow returning on new years day. Isn't that a bit specific?
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Post by trbixler on Jan 1, 2011 2:30:01 GMT
Well even the MET office acknowledges how it is a AGW barbecue. "Looking at the year 2010 as a whole, the UK saw a mean temperature of 7.9 deg C, making it provisionally the 11th coldest year in the series back to 1910. Sunshine and rainfall were close to the long-term average, making 2010 provisionally the 10th driest and the 9th sunniest in the series. EARLY Mean temperature Sunshine duration Precipitation Provisional 1 Jan – 28 Dec Ann – 2010 Actual Difference from normal (71-00) Actual Difference from normal (71-00) Actual Difference from normal (7100) deg C deg C hours % mm % UK 7.9 -0.7 1476.8 109 937.9 83 England 8.7 -0.6 1578.9 108 720.2 86 Wales 8.1 -0.8 1611.1 116 1114.4 78 Scotland 6.5 -0.7 1276.2 107 1231.5 81 N Ireland 7.9 -0.8 1441.9 116 1045.3 94 The full provisional figures for December 2010 will be available in early January. Although it may be a little less cold than the -1.5 deg C recorded here up to the 28th, it is very likely that it will become the coldest December in the UK temperature series which dates back to 1910. Annual figures for 2010 will also be confirmed in January." metofficenews.wordpress.com/ |
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Post by icefisher on Jan 1, 2011 3:02:38 GMT
It's not just a "specific day". The whole week before christmas was dry. In fact, it was the driest week 51 ever recorded in our neck of the woods. THe forecast wasn't much use from that point of view. Since when is a missed one day forecast supposed to show up within a week of the day? His forecast for December was exceptional cold and blizzards. Did they occur or not? You see no value in longer term forecasts even if the specific day might be wrong?
Not really. What use is a forecast if it's out by a week or more. You might postpone a trip or an event only to find the bad weather conditions arrive on the newly arranged date. Out by a week or more? What forecast are you talking about? You have to be moron to take for gospel any daily forecast out more than 10 days. The xmas day forecast was not characterized as to odds. He gives a high confidence that December will be very cold for Britain and Ireland. If a record or near record cold December results in 10 blizzard days, having a blizzard on any specific day might be a forecast with a 30% likelihood 3 weeks out. I would say GLC if you cannot take on the main forecast you should just concede. |
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Post by glc on Jan 1, 2011 3:49:53 GMT
I would say GLC if you cannot take on the main forecast you should just concede.
Concede what?
Could you tell me what possible use Piers Corbyn's forecast was. It was cold - so what? He said there would be blizzards. We (in the middle of the UK ) didn't get one. We did get some snow but it was far from being a blizzard. He said xmas day and boxing day would have "blizzards and snow deluges". Christmas day was bright and clear. Boxing Day much the same. The week before xmas was dry and bright. Since christmas it has been dull and grey and a bit foggy at times. He said snow would return on new years day - I doubt that very much.
If I'd been making travel plans over xmas - what fricking use would Corbyn's forecast have been? None whatsoever.
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Post by icefisher on Jan 1, 2011 3:54:50 GMT
I would say GLC if you cannot take on the main forecast you should just concede. Concede what? Could you tell me what possible use Piers Corbyn's forecast was. It was cold - so what? He said there would be blizzards. We (in the middle of the UK ) didn't get one. We did get some snow but it was far from being a blizzard. He said xmas day and boxing day would have "blizzards and snow deluges". Christmas day was bright and clear. Boxing Day much the same. The week before xmas was dry and bright. Since christmas it has been dull and grey and a bit foggy at times. He said snow would return on new years day - I doubt that very much. If I'd been making travel plans over xmas - what fricking use would Corbyn's forecast have been? None whatsoever. Since I know you can read and you did not take on his forecast but instead chose to nip away at the edges I will take that as a defacto concession. Its not my job to tell you what you could or could not use a forecast for. Its a non-starter as a criticism. |
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 1, 2011 5:26:34 GMT
It's not just a "specific day". The whole week before christmas was dry. In fact, it was the driest week 51 ever recorded in our neck of the woods. THe forecast wasn't much use from that point of view. Since when is a missed one day forecast supposed to show up within a week of the day? His forecast for December was exceptional cold and blizzards. Did they occur or not? You see no value in longer term forecasts even if the specific day might be wrong?
Not really. What use is a forecast if it's out by a week or more. You might postpone a trip or an event only to find the bad weather conditions arrive on the newly arranged date. Out by a week or more? What forecast are you talking about? You have to be moron to take for gospel any daily forecast out more than 10 days. The xmas day forecast was not characterized as to odds. He gives a high confidence that December will be very cold for Britain and Ireland. If a record or near record cold December results in 10 blizzard days, having a blizzard on any specific day might be a forecast with a 30% likelihood 3 weeks out. I would say GLC if you cannot take on the main forecast you should just concede. There's a lot of that BS coming from Glc, so it's not a wonder that he's a contrarian on anything he is ignorant of, and he is surely ignorant of astronomic forecasting. Opinions are just that, but knowledge is another thing, which isn't going to settle in to people such as that who continue with outworn thoughts and comments that like to cherry-pick on the fringe just to have an opinion. Of course long-range forecasting wouldn't mean a thing to him, why would it? He's not looking ahead - he's looking backwards. |
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Post by glc on Jan 1, 2011 11:56:41 GMT
There's a lot of that BS coming from Glc, so it's not a wonder that he's a contrarian on anything he is ignorant of, and he is surely ignorant of astronomic forecasting.
Astronomic - or any other - forecasting is irrelevant to the general global warming debate. The cold in the UK just means there has been a shift in weather patterns. It tells us nothing about whether there is an energy imbalance in the climate system. There are cycles - so what? It's the underlying trend that's the issue and it can't be explained by solar activity. You can't explain why this warm period is warmer than the last warm period.
Opinions are just that, but knowledge is another thing, which isn't going to settle in to people such as that who continue with outworn thoughts and comments that like to cherry-pick on the fringe just to have an opinion.
Since you appear to be completely ignorant of basic physics you should be the last one to talk. As for having opinions your long rambling posts are nothing but empty opinions.
Of course long-range forecasting wouldn't mean a thing to him, why would it? He's not looking ahead - he's looking backwards
I've just had a look at Corbyn's forecast. It says snow will return on New Years Day. Well - it's New Years Day and it's grey and overcast but fairly mild. So I'll ask the question again ...........
What use is Corbyn's forecast?
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Post by glc on Jan 1, 2011 12:53:25 GMT
Talking of long range forecasts. In 1988, James Hansen suggested that a AGW signal had been detected in the climate data and that he expected the world to continue to warm.
Result: UAH temperature trend since January 1988 is ~0.17 deg per decade.
Now you can argue all you lke about the reasons for this increase but you cannot deny that Hansen was right. What's more I can't find any solar 'expert' who predicted warming at that time. Note also that Jan 1988 was at the tail end of a pretty strong El Nino so 1988 is not "cherry-picked".
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 1, 2011 15:33:22 GMT
glc:
The main thing is to not get stuck on the "current" trend and realize that there has been a change in trend. The trend, if you know how to chart and use graphs, switched after 1998.
Everyone knows that you don't change direction in a trend in a few years noticeably.
What we do know is the cooling trend is accelerating, and that is NOT a good thing.
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Post by neilhamp on Jan 1, 2011 15:59:58 GMT
GLC In 1988 James Hansen didn't just say it would continue to warm! He provided temperature predictions based on climate models (results of which he presented to the US congress). He modeled three scenarios: Scenario:A had an increasing rate of rise in CO2 emissions, (prediction for 2010 - 1.1) Scenario:B had constant rate of rise in CO2 emissions, (prediction for 2010 - 0.9) Scenario:C had REDUCED CO2 emissions rate from 1988 levels into the future.(prediction for 2010 - 0.6) As far as I am aware CO2 emmission rates have continued to rise since 1998 We await the final temperature anomolies for 2010 but less than 0.65 looks likely Levels of 0.9 and 1.1 will certainly not occur. So much for Mr.Hansen's 1998 predictive ability! (Hansen’s 1988 paper can be found at: pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/1988/Hansen_etal.html) |
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Post by trbixler on Jan 1, 2011 17:06:22 GMT
Bastardi does not suggest that the solar cycle is the driver but sees just normal ocean cycle. We will see but I suspect he is on the high side of the reality. "Severe Arctic Outbreak Forecast for Mid-January" "The latest indications are that nasty cold will burst onto the Plains and spread over much of the nation during the middle of January. Warning, if you don't like cold, reading this could be painful as it appears the "ice man cometh." AccuWeather.com Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi says that while much of the eastern half of the nation will start the month with above-normal warmth, brutal cold will roll southward from the Arctic during weeks two and three of the month. "The worst of the cold will lie over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest but will spread out from there," Bastardi said." www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/43765/severe-arctic-outbreak-forecas.aspLow thirties on walk this morning in Desert Hot Springs windmills still sitting idle. |
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