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Post by sigurdur on Jan 1, 2011 19:16:07 GMT
Joe did an excellent job this time.
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 2, 2011 1:00:32 GMT
There's a lot of that BS coming from Glc, so it's not a wonder that he's a contrarian on anything he is ignorant of, and he is surely ignorant of astronomic forecasting.Astronomic - or any other - forecasting is irrelevant to the general global warming debate. The cold in the UK just means there has been a shift in weather patterns. It tells us nothing about whether there is an energy imbalance in the climate system. There are cycles - so what? It's the underlying trend that's the issue and it can't be explained by solar activity. You can't explain why this warm period is warmer than the last warm period. Opinions are just that, but knowledge is another thing, which isn't going to settle in to people such as that who continue with outworn thoughts and comments that like to cherry-pick on the fringe just to have an opinion.Since you appear to be completely ignorant of basic physics you should be the last one to talk. As for having opinions your long rambling posts are nothing but empty opinions. Of course long-range forecasting wouldn't mean a thing to him, why would it? He's not looking ahead - he's looking backwardsI've just had a look at Corbyn's forecast. It says snow will return on New Years Day. Well - it's New Years Day and it's grey and overcast but fairly mild. So I'll ask the question again ........... What use is Corbyn's forecast? Glc, you are writing to a professional astronomic forecaster, so you should not be the one telling me that I am "completely ignorant of basic physics," and that I "should be the last one to talk." Who are you kidding? Listen pal -> get this: until you come to the party with some basic understanding of physics yourself - you ought to keep your uninformed opinions to yourself - and they surely are just opinion. Get this - there's a big world out there Glc, and there are experts in it. I am an expert in my chosen field and if you cannot respect that, they don't even bother to comment because it not only shows just how ignorant you are, but also how low you stoop to be rude. Blow air elsewhere if you are unable to act your age, rather than your shoe size. Grow up. |
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Post by glc on Jan 2, 2011 1:15:53 GMT
GLC In 1988 James Hansen didn't just say it would continue to warm! He provided temperature predictions based on climate models (results of which he presented to the US congress). He modeled three scenarios: Scenario:A had an increasing rate of rise in CO2 emissions, (prediction for 2010 - 1.1) Scenario:B had constant rate of rise in CO2 emissions, (prediction for 2010 - 0.9) Scenario:C had REDUCED CO2 emissions rate from 1988 levels into the future.(prediction for 2010 - 0.6) As far as I am aware CO2 emmission rates have continued to rise since 1998 We await the final temperature anomolies for 2010 but less than 0.65 looks likely Levels of 0.9 and 1.1 will certainly not occur. So much for Mr.Hansen's 1998 predictive ability! (Hansen’s 1988 paper can be found at: pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/1988/Hansen_etal.html)Yes - thanks - I know exactly what Hansen's forecasts were and I accept that he has over-estimated the warming. However - there has been significant warming so I'm not sure you can call his prediction a failure. Apparently Piers Corbyn has been judged a huge success because he was only a week out with a prediction that was made just a few weeks previously. Hansen's prediction is pretty good (though I've criticised it on AGW blogs) considering no-one - NOT one Solar expert or astronomic forecaster or mystic meg - predicted warming in 1988. Hansen's prediction wasn't perfect but it was the only one that predicted significant warming. All the smart arses who claim to know all the answers now were conspicuous by their silence in 1988. |
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Post by glc on Jan 2, 2011 1:45:07 GMT
Astromet
Re: #826
Sorry I can't respond I'm too busy ploughing through all this snow that the genius astrometeor...crap...ologist predicted for New Years Day. Though I do have to find it first.
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Post by magellan on Jan 2, 2011 4:23:10 GMT
Magellan, perhaps you don't understand that forecasting requires a number of different inputs, and they may not all give the same signal. Again, my recollection was that the journo was criticised for misunderstanding this, and in addition the critic suggested that most of the signals were for a cold winter. But I can't find the article so I can't check it. If Piers has forecast details then the details should be examined. He gets a plus for going for a very cold winter - though he does tend to predict a lot of extreme weather that doesn't then happen. "far SW England less cold with short milder SW air flows". No it suffered the same cold for the same periods and got lots more snow than normal. "Scotland probably drier than other parts". Is this the forecast that the Scottish transport minister was using - remember he had to resign for failing to deal with the snow adequately. "frequent black ice and freezing fog". Was there much of a black ice issue? Mostly it was cold and snowy which does not tend to result in black ice. Certainly not in Yorkshire, Devon or Berkshire - three places from which I get regular reports. The last snow in Devon happened the Monday morning, 5 days before Christmas. I was in Yorkshire over Christmas. Christmas Eve was light cloud and cold - the Wharfe was frozen at Bolton Abbey, and I was able to cross without use of the stepping stones. On Christmas day it rained a little bit, and the thaw was beginning to burst pipes! "active low pressures dominate south europe/biscay" - certainly the first couple of weeks, south europe was getting the same cold weather. Below freezing for a few nights in Toulouse. So nearly all the details of his forecast are wrong. I'm not saying Piers Corbyn is perfect, certainly not, but when comparing to Met O's performance there really is no argument who has the far better record. Like Met O, NOAA gives their "seasonal forecast" that leave openings big enough for a 747 to taxi through so at the end of the year they claim "NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment". Look at NOAA's maps even now, huge regions of "equal chances". They have nothing to lose, nobody is going to get fired or demoted. In fact as is typical in government, they probably get promoted to the next level of incompetence, perhaps lead authors for IPCC. Joe Bastardi ate NOAA's lunch the past few years, and he's not too proud to admit when wrong. As Joanne Nova puts it Lets remember when comparing success rates that the BOM prediction of “above average rain” over a season has a 50:50 chance of being right and isn’t very specific. A prediction about a particular region three weeks in advance with an extreme forecast, “worst blizzards for decades”, is in a different class. Piers Corbyn predicts the seasonal swings so well, no one seems to notice that we expect an entirely different standard from one small business than from a large well funded government agency.
But yes, I too would like a list of big hits and big misses, documented, but it’s a big job. I mean, is a forecast 6 months ahead a hit or a miss if he revises it one month ahead and gets it right then?
You and glc will need to do better than throwing out anecdotals. |
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Post by glc on Jan 2, 2011 11:21:51 GMT
Magellan
Re: #829
1. Met Office: You won't find anywhere where I've supported the Met O. By and large, their performance is woeful.
2. I agree with Steve. Piers gets credit for predicting the cold - BUT I think Steve will agree with me that the general consensus among meteorologists was that we were in for a cold spell well in advance of the actual event. If you want to argue Corbyn was first with the prediction - perhaps I don't know for sure.
3. My argument was that Piers' prediction wasn't any use. He predicted snow on xmas day. Now if he was really sure he could have placed a bet on this. William Hill's run a book on xmas day snowfall every year. I do not believe a multi-million pound firm like Hill's would be in any way concerned that Piers Corbyn and taken them for £20K over the past 12 years, so forget that line of argument. I do, however, believe they would be reluctant to tie up the time of their highly paid odds compilers for the sake of a few hundred quid - and very little publicity.
In any case - anyone who had faith in Corbyn's forecasts could have placed a bet themselves. They'd have lost.
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Post by icefisher on Jan 2, 2011 18:04:51 GMT
Magellan Re: #829 1. Met Office: You won't find anywhere where I've supported the Met O. By and large, their performance is woeful. LOL! Skeptic vs the Met Office. Nothing going on there right GLC? Move along nothing to see here. ROTFLMAO! |
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Post by raveninghorde on Jan 2, 2011 18:25:45 GMT
Not in North Bucks. We had enough snow on 21st that my work force went home mid morning. The courier company wouldn't collect my last shipment of the year on 22nd because of snow.Pathetic! In 1963 I had to get 2 buses to get to school. I never missed a day. Now run along and check the CET average temperature for Jan 1963 and compare it with December 2010 . Night temperatures didn't get above 0C until 25th.Totally irrelevant. There was very little snow after the 20th. So it was cold at night - big deal. The days were dry and clear. I think you are treating the long term forecasts until 25th too parchiallyWhat's that supposed to mean? Did you get blizzards on the 25th or 26th December or in the days before? Obviously you, like everyone else born after 1960, thinks that everything should shut down if we get a few flakes of snow. Oh dear me - was it cold? Ah - bless. The snow on xmas day had been laying for the best part of a week. Corbyn's forecast was totally useless. Did you not hear the weather forecasts leading up to the main snowfall? How you got to school is irrelevent. 1963 didn't stop me getting to school either. However the inabilty of government to cope with the last 3 winters is down to them believing the Met Office and it's pathetic forecasts. If they had listened to Corbyn at least they would have been prepared. The infrastructure for dealing with bad winters has collapsed. Back in the 80s when I was a councillor we had all the local farmers, amongst others, under contract for snow clearing. And no I don't think 6+ inches of snow should shut things down. You're just attacking a straw man there. Come to think of it that's your normal style. |
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 3, 2011 12:00:15 GMT
Not in North Bucks. We had enough snow on 21st that my work force went home mid morning. The courier company wouldn't collect my last shipment of the year on 22nd because of snow.Pathetic! In 1963 I had to get 2 buses to get to school. I never missed a day. Now run along and check the CET average temperature for Jan 1963 and compare it with December 2010 . Night temperatures didn't get above 0C until 25th.Totally irrelevant. There was very little snow after the 20th. So it was cold at night - big deal. The days were dry and clear. I think you are treating the long term forecasts until 25th too parchiallyWhat's that supposed to mean? Did you get blizzards on the 25th or 26th December or in the days before? Obviously you, like everyone else born after 1960, thinks that everything should shut down if we get a few flakes of snow. Oh dear me - was it cold? Ah - bless. The snow on xmas day had been laying for the best part of a week. Corbyn's forecast was totally useless. Did you not hear the weather forecasts leading up to the main snowfall? How you got to school is irrelevent. 1963 didn't stop me getting to school either. However the inabilty of government to cope with the last 3 winters is down to them believing the Met Office and it's pathetic forecasts. If they had listened to Corbyn at least they would have been prepared. The infrastructure for dealing with bad winters has collapsed. Back in the 80s when I was a councillor we had all the local farmers, amongst others, under contract for snow clearing. And no I don't think 6+ inches of snow should shut things down. You're just attacking a straw man there. Come to think of it that's your normal style. This is a good point because not being prepared is really what this is all about. Those in MET Offices know full well that they cannot forecast seasonally - at all. Rather, they guess. Most people who are unaware of long-range seasonal forecasting often miss these forecasts entirely because they are ignorant of astronomic forecasting, so they say they "do not believe" it because of their ignorance, which some show in their comments here on SC#24. Many have short-term memories (except when it suits them to criticize) while not seeing the larger climate picture and the events when they occur. People like Glc, and Steve, for instance, confuse weather reporting (what is called 5-day forecasts) with seasonal forecasts, which are a month or more out. Moreover, the so-called contrariness we see from them is based more on any lack of understanding of the Earth's climate in general to take either of them seriously in this day and age. The problem for cities, airports, etc., is that they rely on Met Office's seasonal forecasts, which are highly inaccurate up to getting less than 1-percent accuracy on seasonal forecasts. So, cities are often not prepared to the point of having anything stored for snow removal and/or to have their emergency plans in place just in case. This recently occurred in England as well as New York City. Very few of the climatologists and meteorologists in their positions have good forecasting skills outside of 2 or more weeks. The failure rates are very high, but year after year they continue to pretend they can forecast, which again, are merely guesses. |
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Post by glc on Jan 3, 2011 12:39:16 GMT
People like Glc, and Steve, for instance, confuse weather reporting (what is called 5-day forecasts) with seasonal forecasts, which are a month or more out.
I don't confuse any such thing. Piers Corbyn's forecast - accurate or not - was no more useful than the regular updates I was receiving on the local TV weather slots.
Corbyn predicted snow over xmas and the New Year which was completely wrong - we haven't had snow for over a fortnight. The local weather news predicted the snow 10 days in advance and with 3 days to go gave a forecast that was accurate to the nearest hour.
Moreover, the so-called contrariness we see from them is based more on any lack of understanding of the Earth's climate in general to take either of them seriously in this day and age.
Since your recent 'research' on UK weather seems to come from the pages of the Daily Mail, the Sun and the Star I'm not sure what your understanding of earth's climate is. Perhaps you should stick to the horoscope pages.
Let me clarify the situation in the UK from where I'm sitting. The sun is shining and there is not a single trace of snow anywhere. This has been the case for about a week. Before that we had a layer of snow about 2 inches thick which was the result of a snowfall about a week or so earlier. I haven't been housebound in any way. I've gone out whenever I wanted. My post has arrived every day (though the postman has stopped wearing shorts recently) and the young girl who delivers our local paper has arrived every day withour fail. My brother travelled up from Kent for a visit and it sounds as though Steve made it from Devon to Yorkshire without too much trouble.
I'm sorry this doesn't quite meet with your perception of a frozen hell but that was - and is - the reality for the majority of us.
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Post by icefisher on Jan 3, 2011 13:53:12 GMT
While GLC dodges and weaves to do anything to avoid recognizing Corbin nailed the December climate prediction I will recognize I am not going to give up on NOAA for my daily forecast, particularly the 7 day and less.
CET has a -.7 for December. That makes it the second or third coldest December, not in 100 years, but 350 years. For the country folk maybe the coldest.
Of course with maybe 9 degrees UHI in downtown London maybe the Thames ice skates need to be kept on hold.
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Post by steve on Jan 3, 2011 14:09:33 GMT
Yes. It did not get above -2C all the way, but as forecast by the conventional forecasters, there was no fresh snow. Despite the cold the motorways are well salted and the only warning of slippery roads was due to a spillage of baked bean cans on the M1. Ditto (except for the baked d beans) the days before and after when different members of my family made long trips north.
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Post by raveninghorde on Jan 3, 2011 23:56:28 GMT
People like Glc, and Steve, for instance, confuse weather reporting (what is called 5-day forecasts) with seasonal forecasts, which are a month or more out.I don't confuse any such thing. Piers Corbyn's forecast - accurate or not - was no more useful than the regular updates I was receiving on the local TV weather slots. Corbyn predicted snow over xmas and the New Year which was completely wrong - we haven't had snow for over a fortnight. The local weather news predicted the snow 10 days in advance and with 3 days to go gave a forecast that was accurate to the nearest hour. Moreover, the so-called contrariness we see from them is based more on any lack of understanding of the Earth's climate in general to take either of them seriously in this day and age. Since your recent 'research' on UK weather seems to come from the pages of the Daily Mail, the Sun and the Star I'm not sure what your understanding of earth's climate is. Perhaps you should stick to the horoscope pages. Let me clarify the situation in the UK from where I'm sitting. The sun is shining and there is not a single trace of snow anywhere. This has been the case for about a week. Before that we had a layer of snow about 2 inches thick which was the result of a snowfall about a week or so earlier. I haven't been housebound in any way. I've gone out whenever I wanted. My post has arrived every day (though the postman has stopped wearing shorts recently) and the young girl who delivers our local paper has arrived every day withour fail. My brother travelled up from Kent for a visit and it sounds as though Steve made it from Devon to Yorkshire without too much trouble. I'm sorry this doesn't quite meet with your perception of a frozen hell but that was - and is - the reality for the majority of us. No snow for a fortnight? www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5hnGH63fpR8NnnlCNeFYGt1rfxddQ?docId=N0427531294000764393AAs I said parochial |
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 4, 2011 5:30:17 GMT
People like Glc, and Steve, for instance, confuse weather reporting (what is called 5-day forecasts) with seasonal forecasts, which are a month or more out.I don't confuse any such thing. Piers Corbyn's forecast - accurate or not - was no more useful than the regular updates I was receiving on the local TV weather slots. Corbyn predicted snow over xmas and the New Year which was completely wrong - we haven't had snow for over a fortnight. The local weather news predicted the snow 10 days in advance and with 3 days to go gave a forecast that was accurate to the nearest hour. Moreover, the so-called contrariness we see from them is based more on any lack of understanding of the Earth's climate in general to take either of them seriously in this day and age. Since your recent 'research' on UK weather seems to come from the pages of the Daily Mail, the Sun and the Star I'm not sure what your understanding of earth's climate is. Perhaps you should stick to the horoscope pages. Let me clarify the situation in the UK from where I'm sitting. The sun is shining and there is not a single trace of snow anywhere. This has been the case for about a week. Before that we had a layer of snow about 2 inches thick which was the result of a snowfall about a week or so earlier. I haven't been housebound in any way. I've gone out whenever I wanted. My post has arrived every day (though the postman has stopped wearing shorts recently) and the young girl who delivers our local paper has arrived every day withour fail. My brother travelled up from Kent for a visit and it sounds as though Steve made it from Devon to Yorkshire without too much trouble. I'm sorry this doesn't quite meet with your perception of a frozen hell but that was - and is - the reality for the majority of us. There you go again... you consider "two" a majority? Try for much better numbers Glc, because you're not there yet - not by a long shot. "Since your recent 'research' on UK weather seems to come from the pages of the Daily Mail, the Sun and the Star I'm not sure what your understanding of earth's climate is. Perhaps you should stick to the horoscope pages."Really low brow remark that seems to be your standard comeback to matters beyond your knowledge. Listen, if you think your pop-culture view of what constitutes "astrology" is anywhere near the truth of astronomic forecasting, then you really need to check your own mental health. Why not unclog your brain? There is snow on the ground in England - over the Christmas holidays which stranded tens of thousands of travelers - so, despite what seems to be your relatively "local"perception of what's been happening climate-wise in your own country, again you continue with these juvenile comments? Just how old are you... really? |
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Post by thermostat on Jan 4, 2011 5:46:14 GMT
Everyone,
I do enjoy these ongoing discussions about the weather. Still, I remain mostly interested in climate.
Does anyone here have some useful insight?
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