ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Jan 4, 2011 7:49:42 GMT
Yeah i do...
When the warming starts to show up like 1998, in La Nina Years then i will get worried. At the moment we have warmistas carrying on about warm year on the back of an El Nino, and a modiki one if i am not mistaken.
If CFS is right, its going to be a long cold 24 months coming up..at best case Neutral ENSO, or more likely double dip.
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 4, 2011 8:22:24 GMT
Yeah i do... When the warming starts to show up like 1998, in La Nina Years then i will get worried. At the moment we have warmistas carrying on about warm year on the back of an El Nino, and a modiki one if i am not mistaken. If CFS is right, its going to be a long cold 24 months coming up..at best case Neutral ENSO, or more likely double dip. Most, if not all of the signals are quite clear on this - for 2011. My astronomic calculations back in 2005 when I estimated that El Nino with La Nina following would occur in 2010-2011 have proven correct. What I've seen with this particular La Nina is a 9-10 month phase, lasting to about mid-August 2011, when La Nina will have waned. La Nina will peak between February to about mid-May 2011 with the harshest months of winter in the northern hemisphere in Feb., March and April. |
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 4, 2011 8:39:05 GMT
While GLC dodges and weaves to do anything to avoid recognizing Corbin nailed the December climate prediction I will recognize I am not going to give up on NOAA for my daily forecast, particularly the 7 day and less. CET has a -.7 for December. That makes it the second or third coldest December, not in 100 years, but 350 years. For the country folk maybe the coldest. Of course with maybe 9 degrees UHI in downtown London maybe the Thames ice skates need to be kept on hold. Yes, there's a bit of that from some like Glc who seems to be living in his own world there without acknowledging the climate facts, but then again what can you expect from some who continue to push the falsity of man-made global warming? In my long-range forecast outlook, expect those 100+ year old temperatures records to get another work out this winter. La Nina continues to spread, as we can witness from the colder temperatures in the northern hemisphere and the major floods in the southern. This ENSO, as forecasted by me, will break many weather records. The data - just for precipitation alone - has made 2010 the year of the flood, as predicted. |
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Post by glc on Jan 4, 2011 9:30:07 GMT
Yeah i do... When the warming starts to show up like 1998, in La Nina Years then i will get worried. At the moment we have warmistas carrying on about warm year on the back of an El Nino, and a modiki one if i am not mistaken. If CFS is right, its going to be a long cold 24 months coming up..at best case Neutral ENSO, or more likely double dip. Well UAH is currently warmer than the 1986/87 El Nino which was a pretty intense one - so give it 10 years or so and you never know. |
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Jan 4, 2011 10:15:43 GMT
Yes but all the downturns are in a La Nina phase...when i see an upturn, like say right now, then start panicking.
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 5, 2011 2:30:32 GMT
Yes but all the downturns are in a La Nina phase...when i see an upturn, like say right now, then start panicking. This was forecasted by me years ago, so it's not a surprise La Nina followed El Nino. The problem with the Met Offices is that they can only forecast according to the limits of their models, and of course Doppler radar - five (5) day forecasts that people like Steve and Glc like to say is the best which can be done. The fact remains that long-range forecasting is superior and commonly has high percentages when it comes to seasonal weather and climate forecasting. Anyone who doesn't see any "use" for this doesn't have all 52 cards in their deck. Preparation, for those who can look further ahead than five days, is important because in this ENSO phase, we've already seen the floods I've forecasted. The deeper La Nina phase is ahead for February, March and April 2011, with a cold spring, and cooler-than-normal first half of summer to come. |
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 5, 2011 2:35:14 GMT
Astromet:
When you say cooler 1st half of summer, you are talking NH.....right?
And I would imagine that you are thinking through approx August to be cool? 1st day of summer being June 21st or there abouts.
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 5, 2011 4:24:33 GMT
Astromet: When you say cooler 1st half of summer, you are talking NH.....right? And I would imagine that you are thinking through approx August to be cool? 1st day of summer being June 21st or there abouts. Yes, the northern hemisphere. I expect to continue to see flooding events in the southern hemisphere - especially through their summer and autumn seasons. In the northern hemisphere, all astronomic signals show a cooler-than-average climate through winter, spring, and into summer to about mid-August, when we see temperatures, at least for two-thirds of the U.S., and Europe, return to average summer temperatures. So, from now through to mid-August, I expect cooler climate conditions to predominate. |
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Post by glc on Jan 5, 2011 16:58:56 GMT
So, from now through to mid-August, I expect cooler climate conditions to predominate.
Wow - such a revelation. La Nina conditions are now firmly established so our resident astro_something_or_other expert tells us that he expects "cooler climate conditions". I think there might be one or two others on this blog who also expect cooler climate conditions. Not to worry this might be a forecast you actually get right.
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Post by steve on Jan 5, 2011 17:19:52 GMT
So, from now through to mid-August, I expect cooler climate conditions to predominate. Wow - such a revelation. La Nina conditions are now firmly established so our resident astro_something_or_other expert tells us that he expects "cooler climate conditions". I think there might be one or two others on this blog who also expect cooler climate conditions. Not to worry this might be a forecast you actually get right. I would be very surprised if surface temps fell below the normal current definition of average (1961-90 average), so I think it will continue to be warmer than average. Using Roy's new 30-year baseline (1981-2010) then I will guess that the 13 month running mean won't drop below -0.1C this year. www.drroyspencer.com/2011/01/dec-2010-uah-global-temperature-update-0-18-deg-c/ |
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Post by magellan on Jan 5, 2011 17:48:39 GMT
So, from now through to mid-August, I expect cooler climate conditions to predominate. Wow - such a revelation. La Nina conditions are now firmly established so our resident astro_something_or_other expert tells us that he expects "cooler climate conditions". I think there might be one or two others on this blog who also expect cooler climate conditions. Not to worry this might be a forecast you actually get right. How will you cope with not being able to cherry pick 2010 (El Nino) to assist your trend "analysis"  |
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 5, 2011 22:35:14 GMT
So, from now through to mid-August, I expect cooler climate conditions to predominate. Wow - such a revelation. La Nina conditions are now firmly established so our resident astro_something_or_other expert tells us that he expects "cooler climate conditions". I think there might be one or two others on this blog who also expect cooler climate conditions. Not to worry this might be a forecast you actually get right. Yes, and from four years ago I made this forecast. So, despite your rudeness you should expect much cooler climate conditions in your region as well - much colder than you have recently experienced. In light of this Glc, since you have more time to observe the climate than you've been doing in your limited "five-day" world - you might come to your senses and find the remaining cards in your mental deck so you do not continue to embarrass yourself with such stupid comments. |
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 5, 2011 22:39:29 GMT
So, from now through to mid-August, I expect cooler climate conditions to predominate. Wow - such a revelation. La Nina conditions are now firmly established so our resident astro_something_or_other expert tells us that he expects "cooler climate conditions". I think there might be one or two others on this blog who also expect cooler climate conditions. Not to worry this might be a forecast you actually get right. I would be very surprised if surface temps fell below the normal current definition of average (1961-90 average), so I think it will continue to be warmer than average. Using Roy's new 30-year baseline (1981-2010) then I will guess that the 13 month running mean won't drop below -0.1C this year. www.drroyspencer.com/2011/01/dec-2010-uah-global-temperature-update-0-18-deg-c/You will not see warmer than average temperatures for most of 2011, but the opposite - cooler-than-normal. Moreover, there has not been a consensus on global average temperature, which is difficult to ascertain due to the Earth's highly fluid climate. Attempts to state that global average temperatures are warmer than ever have simply been actions by the AGW careerists to make a mountain out of a molehill. One cannot believe anything they say since they have had vested interests and have altered raw global weather data for years. |
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Post by steve on Jan 6, 2011 13:22:34 GMT
So Roy Spencer is an AGW careerist who has been faking the warming of the UAH record then. Interesting?
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Post by icefisher on Jan 6, 2011 13:38:52 GMT
So Roy Spencer is an AGW careerist who has been faking the warming of the UAH record then. Interesting? Do you have a link where Spencer "state(s) that global average temperatures are warmer than ever?" |
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