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Post by AstroMet on Jan 24, 2011 14:35:50 GMT
Comments like the one above always come from the uninformed and ignorant who are using less than 10 percent of their own brain.
These are the people who "guess" and falsely act as if their "guesses" are somehow scientific as they read "causes" from "effects."
The only "smoke" are your own, which clouds whatever brains you are using to make such stupid statements Steve.
If you cannot accept the fact that this El Nina/La Nina was forecasted by me - a astrometeorologist - years ahead of time - not months - then that is clearly your problem.
Who cares what you want to believe or not believe? It does not change the truth of the matter.
Now, for the last time: get off my forecast thread and do your own thing ~ where you can throw insults, demean a forecasting science of which you are ignorant while you chuck off craps in your amateurish "guessing game" on the climate/weather and then presume to call it "science."
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 24, 2011 14:48:20 GMT
magellan I assume you are talking UAH. Then our guesses are similar. Though AQUA Channel 5 currently being above the 2002-2010 average is causing me some second thoughts. Though AQUA Channel 5 currently being above the 2002-2010 average is causing me some second thoughts
In what way? I'm thinking the LT is getting a lot of reflected energy because of the snow cover, which may also explain wider areas of surface cooling. We'll know for sure in the next three months where things are headed. Bottom line: this isn't a typical ENSO when comparing to previous ones, for the last 30 years anyway. I really didn't expect such a quick change from El Nino. In fact, as this was a Modoki El Nino, previous Modoki's were not followed by La Nina let alone one of this magnitude. On top of that the SOI normally doesn't get as deep as it has or for so long even in 1998. As there is about a 6-7 month lag response to SOI, it will certainly be interesting what happens through June/July. Honestly, none of it is making much sense at this point and is why I'm satisfied with just sitting back and see how it unfolds. Well, the polar air I called for is now in line for the northern U.S. and impacting the eastern U.S. with arctic temperatures. The thing about the astronomic signals for this winter into spring is that there are unusual alignments relative to the Earth's orbit at this time of year. These alignments show a deepening La Nina, with much colder temperatures while the southern hemisphere deals with ungodly amounts of precipitation based on the jet stream alterations, blocking and oscillation that is La Nina. We've certainly got a cooler than normal year just ahead for 2011 coming out of this deep La Nina. |
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Post by steve on Jan 24, 2011 15:26:48 GMT
I should add that the confidence in the forecast is not so serious as the confidence in the validation. ie. the "Here is the report of the floods/drought/cold/heat that I forecast" when no such forecast was issued.
Probabilistic forecasters have fallen into this trap by boasting of success when their most probable prediction comes true, but really success should be measured by them being right and wrong in exactly the proportions they expect, and, ideally, being more precise as time goes on.
PS. I suggest that anyone who does not wish to be criticised should say so in their signature line.
___
Steve
Happy to be criticised especially if done so politely and with valid reasons such as links to evidence.
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 24, 2011 15:34:59 GMT
I should add that the confidence in the forecast is not so serious as the confidence in the validation. ie. the "Here is the report of the floods/drought/cold/heat that I forecast" when no such forecast was issued. Probabilistic forecasters have fallen into this trap by boasting of success when their most probable prediction comes true, but really success should be measured by them being right and wrong in exactly the proportions they expect, and, ideally, being more precise as time goes on. PS. I suggest that anyone who does not wish to be criticised should say so in their signature line. ___ Steve Happy to be criticised especially if done so politely and with valid reasons such as links to evidence. The weather and climate validates all prior forecasts Steve. There is no need to provide you with "links" to "evidence." You can easily find proof of the climate and weather forecasted in the resulting weather events globally. I actually work for a living as a forecaster and warned of La Nina years in advance. I published my findings, produced astronomically, far ahead of time. The world is now experiencing the effects of the climate, as forecasted. I've done this before, so has Piers Corbyn, and we will do it again. It is the forecasting science of Astrometeorology. Get used to it because it's been around a very long time and has proven itself many times over. Now, you've been asked (more than once and politely) by more than one person, including myself, to kindly refrain from insults and demeaning of that which you are not expert. It is a common practice with the vulgar (the ignorant) to slander anything that is difficult of attainment for themselves.So, I will ask you one more time: please refrain from commenting on this thread since you seem to treat it as your toilet (which it is not.) If you must continue to excrete your urine Steve, then please use your own bathroom, or, in proper English terms - piss in your own Loo. Have a nice day. |
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 24, 2011 15:39:23 GMT
Seems the NY Times is wondering about the colder-than-normal temperatures: Topsy-Turvy Weather: U.S. Is Frigid, Arctic BalmyJudging by the weather, the world seems to have flipped upside down. For two winters running, an Arctic chill has descended on Europe, burying that continent in snow and ice.
Last year in the United States, historic blizzards afflicted the mid-Atlantic region. This winter the deep South has endured unusual snowstorms and severe cold, and a frigid Northeast is bracing for what could shape into another major snowstorm this week.
Yet while people in Atlanta learn to shovel snow, the weather 2,000 miles to the north has been freakishly warm the past two winters.
Throughout northeastern Canada and Greenland, temperatures in December ran as much as 15 or 20 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Bays and lakes have been slow to freeze; ice fishing, hunting and trade routes have been disrupted.
Iqaluit, the capital of the remote Canadian territory of Nunavut, had to cancel its New Year’s snowmobile parade.
David Ell, the deputy mayor, said that people in the region had been looking with envy at snowbound American and European cities. “People are saying, ‘That’s where all our snow is going!’ ” he said."For more, see -> www.nytimes.com/2011/01/25/science/earth/25cold.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rssThe cold continues to spread as forecasted, and positive La Nina values continue to deepen, as Kate James of Gather News reports January 24, 2011: "A bitter cold has hit the Northeast, and a woman died in her driveway because of it. In fact, it is so bone-chilling that many schools have either closed or delayed their opening in the region. The woman’s frozen body was found in her driveway, and another death has also been linked to the desperately cold weather. Denise O’Hara was found in her North Haven, Connecticut driveway on Sunday morning. She had fallen in her driveway on Saturday night where she froze to death. It is unbelievable that the weather was that serious. Alan Kurtz died after spending the night in his car in Lansford. The temperature in Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont and New Hampshire has been as low as 25 degrees below zero. It hurts to even think about weather this cold. With wind chills, many areas in New England could feel 50 degrees below zero. Thank goodness the schools closed to protect the students form these serious freezing conditions. For those who must get out in the chilling conditions, layered clothing is a must. Any employees and students who are out and about today must make sure they dress in plenty of layers of clothes in order to protect against the severe cold. What are you doing to protect yourself from this dangerously chilling weather?" |
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Post by steve on Jan 24, 2011 17:20:46 GMT
Your sensitivity belies your self-confidence.
It is these claims that *cause* me to respond. I cannot help myself! You said last year:
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Post by saturnv on Jan 24, 2011 18:33:46 GMT
This post should really be labelled the Steve and Astromet show, you guys spend so much time bickering you make yourselves look like schoolkids. Lets be honest no-one really knows where we headed probably cooling trend will continue but as far as forecasts go thats about as accurate as you can get. Piers Corbyn has hit lucky a couple of times as I'm sure you guys have but he was predicting a cruel January in Uk it's been average or well above for most of the month and it turned coldish for a few days and he jumps on it like its December all over again-don't think so. He may well have a better track record than some but it's in no way accurate and anyone who pays for the forecasts is wasting their money. Joe Bastardi seems to be pretty much on the money for long range forecasts but he doesn't put his reputation on the line by saying it's going to snow in Glasgow on the 24th February from 4-6pm and rubbish like that.
Keep it up though boys it's a good read.
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 24, 2011 18:39:07 GMT
Your sensitivity belies your self-confidence. It is these claims that *cause* me to respond. I cannot help myself! You said last year: Obviously, you cannot help yourself. Is La Nina not here? It is also obvious that you do not understand ENSO, nor have a clue as to what constitutes it -> iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/technical.htmlSo again, Steve, I ask you to do your childish trolling elsewhere. This board is for mature members. The weather and climate validates all prior forecasts. There is no need to provide you with "links" to "evidence." You can easily find proof of the climate and weather forecasted in the resulting weather events globally. I actually work for a living as a forecaster and warned of La Nina years in advance. I published my findings, produced astronomically, far ahead of time. The world is now experiencing the effects of the climate, as forecasted. I've done this before, so has Piers Corbyn, and we will do it again. It is the forecasting science of Astrometeorology. Get used to it because it's been around a very long time and has proven itself many times over. Now, you've been asked (more than once and politely) by more than one person, including myself, to kindly refrain from insults and demeaning of that which you are not expert. It is a common practice with the vulgar (the ignorant) to slander anything that is difficult of attainment for themselves.So, I will ask you one more time: please refrain from commenting on this thread since you seem to treat it as your toilet (which it is not.) If you must continue to excrete your urine Steve, then please use your own bathroom, or, in proper English terms - piss in your own Loo. |
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 24, 2011 18:44:33 GMT
This post should really be labelled the Steve and Astromet show, you guys spend so much time bickering you make yourselves look like schoolkids. Lets be honest no-one really knows where we headed probably cooling trend will continue but as far as forecasts go thats about as accurate as you can get. Piers Corbyn has hit lucky a couple of times as I'm sure you guys have but he was predicting a cruel January in Uk it's been average or well above for most of the month and it turned coldish for a few days and he jumps on it like its December all over again-don't think so. He may well have a better track record than some but it's in no way accurate and anyone who pays for the forecasts is wasting their money. Joe Bastardi seems to be pretty much on the money for long range forecasts but he doesn't put his reputation on the line by saying it's going to snow in Glasgow on the 24th February from 4-6pm and rubbish like that. Keep it up though boys it's a good read. Well, the case with "Steve" is that he cannot forecast and thinks no else can, as is common with the vulgar. Try to find him forecasting at all and you'll be waiting a very long time. He spends more time with his wanker out on how other forecasters are "wrong" and how everything is "warming" everywhere, than he does seeing what's happening in the real world of the climate. Go figure... As for Corbyn, he's very accurate and has a successful long-range forecasting percentage. Bastardi has gotten better over the past three years with his conventional seasonal forecasts as he has applied space weather conditions, as he correctly should. All forecasters put their "reputation" on the line. That's what they do when they forecast. It is a normal part of the job. Only amateurs and wannabes shirk from getting on the forecasting field with both feet. Opinions are not forecasts and are based solely on ignorance. That's not science and never will be. Again, you will find the ignorant dismissive because they are unable to accomplish what others successfully achieve. That's people like Steve in a sentence. Lazy people never get it because they do not want to work for it. It's that simple. People like that come a dime a dozen. |
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Post by saturnv on Jan 24, 2011 18:45:00 GMT
BINGO!!!
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Post by codetalker on Jan 24, 2011 18:56:28 GMT
Quick Question for Astromet. This past weekend we saw some very high tides caused by the Sun and Moon. When the gravitational pull is strong enough to tug on the surface water does it also pull on the water in clouds? It would seems so?
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 24, 2011 19:01:30 GMT
Quick Question for Astromet. This past weekend we saw some very high tides caused by the Sun and Moon. When the gravitational pull is strong enough to tug on the surface water does it also pull on the water in clouds? It would seems so? We get them every month, syzergies. Some are stronger than others, and there are sea and earth tides of lunar gravitational pulls. We do get atmospheric tides, these are strong enough to raise the ocean of atmosphere, thus the cold of space retreats further from Earth when the Moon is above the horizon and then returns when the Moon is below the horizon. |
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Post by codetalker on Jan 24, 2011 19:15:03 GMT
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 24, 2011 19:24:58 GMT
Not really, it is a hypothetical model (based on those computer modelers who love to make up wild and unbelievable disaster scenarios based on their gaming theory of "chaos" everywhere.) The solar system is orderly. There are regular intervals of stellar and planetary transits that cause the Earth to react according to the astrophysical and geophysical laws that rule our system. Ark is yet another attempt by the maniacs in their careerist circles to scare the public about Nature, which has been doing its own thing since the dawn of humanity. And humanity adjusts and survives everything thrown at it. We humans will be just fine. We pick ourselves up and we survive. What is a bigger threat are those computer modelers, who throw out the laws of physics in favor of playing with themselves, you know, with their "chaos games" posing as real science. Too much LSD over the years, mixed in with tons of cocaine and disco music to boot has fried out the synapses of their brains. It's Baby Boomers afraid of aging. They want the world to end before they have to start wearing their Depends. But, they are already old: they've ruined the economy and screwed over climate science. So they are devising more "disaster scenarios" since man-made global warming has gone the way of the dinosaur. That's what you need to watch out for, but those wacky computer modelers couldn't forecast a bowl of soup on a cold winter day. |
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Post by boxman on Jan 24, 2011 20:04:32 GMT
I also went through Piers' forecasting archive last summer looking for any mention of Russian heatwaves, Pakistan flooding, Bolivian cold and found nothing. Piers appears to be quite good at prediction outrageous weather that usually never arrives. It seems to me that occasionally luck gives him a hit and then subsequently the publicity he needs. His winter forecast has been way off since the week before Christmas. Should the weather go as the conventional forecasters see it then he will have used up his 15% of errors before the year has got going! Steve: Astrometeorology is actually quit good at predicting long range climatic trends. It is very poor at forcasting site specific weather. Anyone who says otherwise is blowing smoke. In the interview i saw they actually claimed he did predict the russian heatwave months prior to it happening. This is why i wanted to find some evidence that he really predicted that. |
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