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Post by AstroMet on Jan 24, 2011 20:18:54 GMT
Steve: Astrometeorology is actually quit good at predicting long range climatic trends. It is very poor at forcasting site specific weather. Anyone who says otherwise is blowing smoke. In the interview i saw they actually claimed he did predict the russian heatwave months prior to it happening. This is why i wanted to find some evidence that he really predicted that. Actually, he did, and not only for Europe, but for North America, which did experience a super heatwave -> www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=216&c=5He also forecasted when the heatwave in Russia would break, again, applying astronomic forecasting methods. It's no secret. It's not like he's not doing this, Piers has done it before, so looking for one thing he did or did not forecast isn't going to allow anyone to say, "see it doesn't work." And, he does not claim to be perfect either. But astronomic forecasting is accurate and consistent. The work is very time intensive and quite complex but there is plenty of validation in the weather itself (which some like to ignore so they can continue blowing a lot of hot air around nay saying everything under the Sun. Say it ain't so Joe!?) |
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 25, 2011 0:08:15 GMT
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 25, 2011 3:30:28 GMT
Thanks for the updated link Sigurdur. The very cold temperatures forecasted is now setting in, and there is much more to come in February and March with unbelievable record cold and fierce storms. As forecasted, I expect this ENSO to set many records and to be quite deep and strong, as it has been showing so far. Again, there is more to come from this historic climate event... |
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 25, 2011 3:50:14 GMT
Thanks for the updated link Sigurdur. The very cold temperatures forecasted is now setting in, and there is much more to come in February and March with unbelievable record cold and fierce storms. As forecasted, I expect this ENSO to set many records and to be quite deep and strong, as it has been showing so far. Again, there is more to come from this historic climate event... Folks in my area have had enough Astromet. You can shut this off anytime in the veryyyyyy nearrrrrrrr future! |
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Post by scpg02 on Jan 25, 2011 4:51:08 GMT
Thanks for the updated link Sigurdur. The very cold temperatures forecasted is now setting in, and there is much more to come in February and March with unbelievable record cold and fierce storms. As forecasted, I expect this ENSO to set many records and to be quite deep and strong, as it has been showing so far. Again, there is more to come from this historic climate event... Folks in my area have had enough Astromet. You can shut this off anytime in the veryyyyyy nearrrrrrrr future! It has been warm enough to almost open the house up here in the central valley. |
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Post by steve on Jan 25, 2011 9:40:05 GMT
In the interview i saw they actually claimed he did predict the russian heatwave months prior to it happening. This is why i wanted to find some evidence that he really predicted that. Actually, he did, and not only for Europe, but for North America, which did experience a super heatwave -> www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=216&c=5He also forecasted when the heatwave in Russia would break, again, applying astronomic forecasting methods. It's no secret. This is not a forecast of the Russian heat wave. It is a forecast issued *during* the Russian heatwave that says that the heatwave will break down mid-July. There was no mention of the heatwave in the forecast archive for dates prior to it starting. The heatwave did not break down in July. It continued to August 18th: en.rian.ru/russia/20100809/160128496.htmlwww.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE67H16K |
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Post by steve on Jan 25, 2011 10:28:50 GMT
saturnv This post should really be labelled the Steve and Astromet show, you guys spend so much time bickering you make yourselves look like schoolkids. Lets be honest no-one really knows where we headed probably cooling trend will continue but as far as forecasts go thats about as accurate as you can get. Piers Corbyn has hit lucky a couple of times as I'm sure you guys have but he was predicting a cruel January in Uk it's been average or well above for most of the month and it turned coldish for a few days and he jumps on it like its December all over again-don't think so. He may well have a better track record than some but it's in no way accurate and anyone who pays for the forecasts is wasting their money. Joe Bastardi seems to be pretty much on the money for long range forecasts but he doesn't put his reputation on the line by saying it's going to snow in Glasgow on the 24th February from 4-6pm and rubbish like that. Keep it up though boys it's a good read. I'm comparing what is being claimed as success with what was originally forecast. I'm really trying *not* to bicker. Lots of the contributors do this to each other across this forum all the time. Mostly, our heated discussions go somewhere - even if it is clarification of why we still disagree. If people want to try out forecasting techniques, then good for them. But they won't get any better if they simply pretend that the forecast was successful or useful when it wasn't, and have a rant when criticised. I'm not the only one who has got the sharp end of astromet's filthy tongue when they have pointed out his poor people skills. Yes I might be overly persistent. I can't help myself because I have an interest in the psychology of pseudoscience. astromet needs to check his English dictionary though to get the correct use of the "w" word  |
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 25, 2011 20:54:01 GMT
Thanks for the updated link Sigurdur. The very cold temperatures forecasted is now setting in, and there is much more to come in February and March with unbelievable record cold and fierce storms. As forecasted, I expect this ENSO to set many records and to be quite deep and strong, as it has been showing so far. Again, there is more to come from this historic climate event... Folks in my area have had enough Astromet. You can shut this off anytime in the veryyyyyy nearrrrrrrr future! There will be a little break coming, but not much I'm afraid. There's the month of February and March to contend with. The early spring months look cooler than normal, and though there will be enough pack for the strongest of roots to survive the colder temperatures in the months ahead will cause some damage. |
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Post by steve on Jan 26, 2011 17:04:37 GMT
My analysis of the forecasts as January comes to a close: Forecast from Piers Corbyn at the turn of the new year was: MAJOR miss. UK January temps near average for the UK. Slightly warmer than average for Europe (due to the very warm spell a couple of weeks ago). Obviously the CO2 got in the way of the solar-lunar impact on the jet stream  Up to now January is probably balancing out as average temperatures. At the moment it is quite warm, with the minimum temperatures within a degree of the record warm minimum for January (though the max temperatures are not exceptional). He disagrees with the "standard view" of Met Office whose 6-15 day outlook currently says: which I interpret to say is near normal then cool then mild - but a pretty average rest of January.[/quote] The near normal then cool bit was OK. It's currently a bit unsettled with two weak fronts passing over the UK at the moment, and near average temperatures. There are some gales in Scotland but only on hill-tops. Not too bad, but then again there was nothing notable to forecast. |
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 26, 2011 21:16:09 GMT
Folks in my area have had enough Astromet. You can shut this off anytime in the veryyyyyy nearrrrrrrr future! It has been warm enough to almost open the house up here in the central valley. That will continue into February, until the new rains and cold arrives in Northern California. Until then, it is two-thirds of the country to the east which is feeling La Nina's power. |
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 26, 2011 22:17:56 GMT
saturnv This post should really be labelled the Steve and Astromet show, you guys spend so much time bickering you make yourselves look like schoolkids. Lets be honest no-one really knows where we headed probably cooling trend will continue but as far as forecasts go thats about as accurate as you can get. Piers Corbyn has hit lucky a couple of times as I'm sure you guys have but he was predicting a cruel January in Uk it's been average or well above for most of the month and it turned coldish for a few days and he jumps on it like its December all over again-don't think so. He may well have a better track record than some but it's in no way accurate and anyone who pays for the forecasts is wasting their money. Joe Bastardi seems to be pretty much on the money for long range forecasts but he doesn't put his reputation on the line by saying it's going to snow in Glasgow on the 24th February from 4-6pm and rubbish like that. Keep it up though boys it's a good read. I'm comparing what is being claimed as success with what was originally forecast. I'm really trying *not* to bicker. Lots of the contributors do this to each other across this forum all the time. Mostly, our heated discussions go somewhere - even if it is clarification of why we still disagree. If people want to try out forecasting techniques, then good for them. But they won't get any better if they simply pretend that the forecast was successful or useful when it wasn't, and have a rant when criticised. I'm not the only one who has got the sharp end of astromet's filthy tongue when they have pointed out his poor people skills. Yes I might be overly persistent. I can't help myself because I have an interest in the psychology of pseudoscience. astromet needs to check his English dictionary though to get the correct use of the "w" word Steve, you've been asked (more than several times) to discuss in a manner that does not demean the forecasting techniques of others ~ namely myself. Now, I can speak for myself, and certainly defend myself if need be, but you have a bad habit of just sounding stupid. You do not show any knowledge of astronomic forecasting or of the basic principles of climate and weather forecasting to sound off as you do. We can only surmise that you are doing so to be prissy, which is unfit, especially for a man, and for a person who claims to have knowledge about the Earth's climate. Moreover, my "people skills" are just fine. The fact is that you are not used to getting put into your place by an expert. That is your problem - not mine. Again, I do not babysit grown men. You have shown little respect for a forecasting science that regularly outperforms all other world climate and met centers, yet you come off as being some kind of "critic," which you're not - you just blow a lot of hot air and you know it. This isn't a "chatroom," where you can hide behind your moniker and behave like a teenage boy who is pissed off at the world. This is a place for serious scientific discussion on the world's climate. You've shown little knowledge about forecasting and are vulgar, which again, is common to those who have not attained what others have - which is forecast. So, act your age and not your shoe-size? Come correct so perhaps you may be able to actually learn something from the experts rather than blowing steam about what you "believe" and what you do not "believe." It is also not about "you," as whenever you comment, it always comes down to what you do, or do not believe. From your comments I surmise you are over, or at the age of 60+, are a conventional rationalist and stuck in outmoded forms of thinking, dominated by a belief system that is narrow and not open to learning things which you have not learned during the course of your lifetime. That is where your problem appears to be. There is no "psychology of pseudo-science," - it's all in your head and a complete waste of time at that. That's personal. Believe whatever ideology you want, but it has no place in this setting. Welcome to the 21st Century. Try getting into it. |
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Post by steve on Jan 26, 2011 23:41:46 GMT
You might be on better grounds with that request if you were less demeaning about climate scientists.
What did you think of Piers January forecast?
And do you still think that he correctly forecast the Russian heatwave when the evidence is that he only issued a forecast *during* the heatwave, and that he forecast its end a full month, and many thousands of deaths, early?
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 27, 2011 7:53:15 GMT
You might be on better grounds with that request if you were less demeaning about climate scientists. What did you think of Piers January forecast? And do you still think that he correctly forecast the Russian heatwave when the evidence is that he only issued a forecast *during* the heatwave, and that he forecast its end a full month, and many thousands of deaths, early? It doesn't matter what I "think" about Piers' January forecast. He does just fine applying his astronomic techniques on his own. Ask him. In my view, Piers is an expert and knows his business. That should be good enough for anyone, including you. Now, if you can do better than the rest of us professional forecasters, then please Steve, by all means, show us, so we can learn from your expertise there on your "better ground," so us little people down here on the field can try to match your unequaled success of advanced climate and weather forecasting. |
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Post by matt on Jan 27, 2011 9:27:14 GMT
You might be on better grounds with that request if you were less demeaning about climate scientists. What did you think of Piers January forecast? And do you still think that he correctly forecast the Russian heatwave when the evidence is that he only issued a forecast *during* the heatwave, and that he forecast its end a full month, and many thousands of deaths, early? It doesn't matter what I "think" about Piers' January forecast. He does just fine applying his astronomic techniques on his own. Ask him. In my view, Piers is an expert and knows his business. That should be good enough for anyone, including you. Now, if you can do better than the rest of us professional forecasters, then please Steve, by all means, show us, so we can learn from your expertise there on your "better ground," so us little people down here on the field can try to match your unequaled success of advanced climate and weather forecasting. Steve is not the one claiming what is essentially super-powers with regard to forecasting. Steve is not the one making personal attacks, put-downs, and insults. Astromet, you couldn't forecast your way out of a paper bag and your people skills are non-existent. How about a challenge? Pick your best region and do a monthly forecast including the reasons - "The moon is_____ so February will be cold." Let's see if you can actually beat the experts 85% to 10% |
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Post by steve on Jan 27, 2011 10:31:13 GMT
You might be on better grounds with that request if you were less demeaning about climate scientists. What did you think of Piers January forecast? And do you still think that he correctly forecast the Russian heatwave when the evidence is that he only issued a forecast *during* the heatwave, and that he forecast its end a full month, and many thousands of deaths, early? It doesn't matter what I "think" about Piers' January forecast. He does just fine applying his astronomic techniques on his own. Ask him. In my view, Piers is an expert and knows his business. That should be good enough for anyone, including you. Now, if you can do better than the rest of us professional forecasters, then please Steve, by all means, show us, so we can learn from your expertise there on your "better ground," so us little people down here on the field can try to match your unequaled success of advanced climate and weather forecasting. It does matter what you think because you have promoted Corbyn's forecasts and also promoted his claims of success. In the post above you said that he had forecast the Russian heatwave correctly. But my view is that he forecast it disastrously wrong. On the basis of his forecast the powers that be in Moscow would have all disappeared off to their dachas on Lake Baikal for their annual August holiday, leaving the poor citizens to suffer heat exhaustion, thirst and smoke inhalation. So I want to know why you think it was worth referring to. He may be an expert and know his business. But an expert in what? You say that validating forecasts is easy because it is validated by the weather (!) but that doesn't really mean anything. When you say you are 85% correct. 85% of what? 85% of temperatures to within 0.1C? 85% of forecasts that it will rain somewhere in the whole of the US? I forecast that on Christmas day in 2014 that it will rain in some areas and snow in others. Some areas will receive warmer than average temperatures whilst others suffer from cold. I would advise that those in the cold areas wrap up warm and make sure they buy their Christmas presents and turkey early. I forecast that this forecast will be 100% accurate. |
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