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Post by woodstove on Apr 2, 2011 12:15:19 GMT
In order for March/April to be cooler than normal, April will have to be a degree cooler or so. It ain't happening. The concept is so ludicrous that I called it early. If that disturbs you, so be it. What? Do you really believe anything you say? Exactly where do you come up with such pure bosh Matt? There are lots of people out there pretending to be forecasters who should check their own sanity (you included) because you simply do not have the most basic understanding of weather (much less climate) down to be able to comment on what temperatures will, or will not be. What is 'disturbing' is that you obviously think having a computer and a keyboard makes you a forecaster. It doesn't. Seeing "warm" everywhere you look, are we? SC24.com used to be a little less ad-hom... Joe Bastardi points out that the daily SOI shows the highest single-day value in two decades: www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=688 |
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Post by glc on Apr 2, 2011 12:47:52 GMT
Why don't you produce the data to prove him wrong? According to UAH, the first 2 months of 2011 were very slightly cooler than the the first 2 months of 1987. LOL! Last I checked GLC and Matt, Jan and Feb is winter, not spring. Spring officially started a little over a week ago. Why don't you try following the discussion instead of quoting comments out of context. This exchange of comments was initiated by Astromet who stated Overall, the spring is cooler than normal going into summer as La Nina values begin....Note the word 'is' - implying the present tense. Astromet is trying to convince you that the La Nina has produced cooler than normal temperatures. It hasn't. Sorry, guys, despite your much awaited La Nina, this year will probably still end up warmer than the El Nino year of 1987. |
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Post by matt on Apr 2, 2011 14:29:22 GMT
What is your basis for claiming 1951-1980 as normal? To give you a sporting chance. Normal is what the climate was before man started spewing CO2. You can't logically say that CO2 doesn't cause warming then ask for a base period that includes CO2-induced warming. |
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Post by throttleup on Apr 2, 2011 17:03:50 GMT
What is your basis for claiming 1951-1980 as normal? To give you a sporting chance. Normal is what the climate was before man started spewing CO2. You can't logically say that CO2 doesn't cause warming then ask for a base period that includes CO2-induced warming. matt, I'm not trying to be rude and I'm not here for an argument. But your term, "man started spewing CO2" seems a little odd. You make it sound like CO2 is what your child pukes up all over the carpet after a bad meal or what your dog barfs up after eating a load of grass. ("Oh crap! I just stepped in a pile of CO2!") I think CO2 has been around a long time. I think it's almost natural. I think it has cycled up and down along with earth's temperature since... well, since before algore. And, CO2 does have some wonderful qualities I'm sure we all can appreciate. I think my point is the planet also "spews" CO2. And since earth has "spewed" CO2 over the years and it has varied up and down without "man" around to do any "spewing" then how far back to you go and do you differentiate "man-spewed" CO2 from the much better (apparently) "earth-spewed" CO2? In a perfect Universe, to get rid of CO2 completely, would require the utter destruction of this planet. |
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Post by glc on Apr 2, 2011 19:33:08 GMT
He is wrong. The anomaly of -0.018 is not significantly different to ZERO, i.e. the mean February anomaly for the 1981-2010 period. Even if you assume the last 30 years were "normal" then clearly the last 2 La Nina-affected months have not been "cooler than normal". |
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 2, 2011 22:18:36 GMT
LOL! Last I checked GLC and Matt, Jan and Feb is winter, not spring. Spring officially started a little over a week ago. Why don't you try following the discussion instead of quoting comments out of context. This exchange of comments was initiated by Astromet who stated Overall, the spring is cooler than normal going into summer as La Nina values begin....Note the word 'is' - implying the present tense. Astromet is trying to convince you that the La Nina has produced cooler than normal temperatures. It hasn't. Sorry, guys, despite your much awaited La Nina, this year will probably still end up warmer than the El Nino year of 1987. "Much awaited La Nina?" Where have you been for the last several months glc? |
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Post by glc on Apr 3, 2011 0:37:44 GMT
"Much awaited La Nina?" Where have you been for the last several months glc?
Many of the posters on this blog were anticipating a much bigger drop in global temperatures than has actually occurred. March could end up slightly cooler than normal but overall the temperature drop has not been particularly remarkable. This is where your arguments about Solar or ENSO being the dominant drivers falls down. Temperatures are cooler only compared to very recent measurements. i.e.
ENSO and (other drivers) only cause fluctuations over a relatively short period - they are not responsible for the long term trend.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 3, 2011 0:52:37 GMT
"Much awaited La Nina?" Where have you been for the last several months glc? Many of the posters on this blog were anticipating a much bigger drop in global temperatures than has actually occurred. March could end up slightly cooler than normal but overall the temperature drop has not been particularly remarkable. This is where your arguments about Solar or ENSO being the dominant drivers falls down. Temperatures are cooler only compared to very recent measurements. i.e. ENSO and (other drivers) only cause fluctuations over a relatively short period - they are not responsible for the long term trend. And the long term trend has flatlined. Now we must understand why, over a period of more than a decade, that this has happened. Is this signaling a change to a colder climate? IF so, are we ready? It is obvious the fish and dolphins and turtles are not ready. Huge kills in the Gulf of Mexico because of the cold sea temps there. I don't relish the huge kills of mankind because of a colder climate that might be coming. |
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Post by thermostat on Apr 3, 2011 2:38:50 GMT
"Much awaited La Nina?" Where have you been for the last several months glc? Many of the posters on this blog were anticipating a much bigger drop in global temperatures than has actually occurred. March could end up slightly cooler than normal but overall the temperature drop has not been particularly remarkable. This is where your arguments about Solar or ENSO being the dominant drivers falls down. Temperatures are cooler only compared to very recent measurements. i.e. ENSO and (other drivers) only cause fluctuations over a relatively short period - they are not responsible for the long term trend. And the long term trend has flatlined. Now we must understand why, over a period of more than a decade, that this has happened. Is this signaling a change to a colder climate? IF so, are we ready? It is obvious the fish and dolphins and turtles are not ready. Huge kills in the Gulf of Mexico because of the cold sea temps there. I don't relish the huge kills of mankind because of a colder climate that might be coming. sigurdur, Some climatologists are predicting that the recent La Nina will be followed by a very strong El Nino. I would pause for now before making predictions. Six or twelve months would be a better time to make a guess. |
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 3, 2011 3:40:31 GMT
And the long term trend has flatlined. Now we must understand why, over a period of more than a decade, that this has happened. Is this signaling a change to a colder climate? IF so, are we ready? It is obvious the fish and dolphins and turtles are not ready. Huge kills in the Gulf of Mexico because of the cold sea temps there. I don't relish the huge kills of mankind because of a colder climate that might be coming. sigurdur, Some climatologists are predicting that the recent La Nina will be followed by a very strong El Nino. I would pause for now before making predictions. Six or twelve months would be a better time to make a guess. I was not infering a prediction, but what would happen if we cool for an extended period of time. |
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Post by thermostat on Apr 3, 2011 3:48:59 GMT
sigurdur, Some climatologists are predicting that the recent La Nina will be followed by a very strong El Nino. I would pause for now before making predictions. Six or twelve months would be a better time to make a guess. I was not infering a prediction, but what would happen if we cool for an extended period of time. sigurdur, Let me suggest, there is no reason to think things will cool anytime soon. |
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 3, 2011 7:27:49 GMT
"Much awaited La Nina?" Where have you been for the last several months glc? Many of the posters on this blog were anticipating a much bigger drop in global temperatures than has actually occurred. March could end up slightly cooler than normal but overall the temperature drop has not been particularly remarkable. This is where your arguments about Solar or ENSO being the dominant drivers falls down. Temperatures are cooler only compared to very recent measurements. i.e. ENSO and (other drivers) only cause fluctuations over a relatively short period - they are not responsible for the long term trend. The Earth's climate is always variable glc. It does not matter if anyone was expecting a much bigger drop in global temperatures. The only way to determine any kind of climate 'trend' is by astronomical means - and not by any other means. Also - ENSO is not a 'driver' of the climate. It is a geophysical effect of astronomic causes. You cannot compare ENSO to Solar. The Sun is the prime driver of all climate on Earth and causes major climate events like ENSO. We remain in a solar-forced global warming cycle. This is the 30th year. There are six (6) years to go. I fully expect variable climate conditions to be warmer in 2012 and 2013, with an anomalous colder-than-normal winter in 2014, then a return again to warmer winters in 2015 and 2016. The major shift to the official start of global cooling in the year 2017. |
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Post by glc on Apr 3, 2011 9:05:18 GMT
"Much awaited La Nina?" Where have you been for the last several months glc? Many of the posters on this blog were anticipating a much bigger drop in global temperatures than has actually occurred. March could end up slightly cooler than normal but overall the temperature drop has not been particularly remarkable. This is where your arguments about Solar or ENSO being the dominant drivers falls down. Temperatures are cooler only compared to very recent measurements. i.e. ENSO and (other drivers) only cause fluctuations over a relatively short period - they are not responsible for the long term trend. And the long term trend has flatlined. Now we must understand why, over a period of more than a decade, that this has happened. Is this signaling a change to a colder climate? IF so, are we ready? It is obvious the fish and dolphins and turtles are not ready. Huge kills in the Gulf of Mexico because of the cold sea temps there. I don't relish the huge kills of mankind because of a colder climate that might be coming. . Any 'flatlining' that is evident in the recent record (i.e. past 7 or 8 years) is entirely due to ENSO. La Nina in 2008 and 2010 has resulted in lower temperatures recently. Even if we entered a period where La Nina became more frequent there is nothing to suggest that this will lower global temperatures significantly. The land and oceans are still well above 20th century averages. Astromet You're still not understanding the point. Whether or not there are cycles is not the issue. This warm period was warmer than the last warm period. The next cool period (if it comes) will be warmer than the previous cool period.... and when that ends the next wamer period will be warmer than this warm period. In fact it's qute likely that the next COOL period (Easterbrook says were in it) will be warmer than the last WARM period. Fluctuations can be explained by cycles - but the underlying trend cannot. |
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Post by woodstove on Apr 3, 2011 10:34:38 GMT
And the long term trend has flatlined. Now we must understand why, over a period of more than a decade, that this has happened. Is this signaling a change to a colder climate? IF so, are we ready? It is obvious the fish and dolphins and turtles are not ready. Huge kills in the Gulf of Mexico because of the cold sea temps there. I don't relish the huge kills of mankind because of a colder climate that might be coming. . Any 'flatlining' that is evident in the recent record (i.e. past 7 or 8 years) is entirely due to ENSO. La Nina in 2008 and 2010 has resulted in lower temperatures recently. Even if we entered a period where La Nina became more frequent there is nothing to suggest that this will lower global temperatures significantly. The land and oceans are still well above 20th century averages. Astromet You're still not understanding the point. Whether or not there are cycles is not the issue. This warm period was warmer than the last warm period. The next cool period (if it comes) will be warmer than the previous cool period.... and when that ends the next wamer period will be warmer than this warm period. In fact it's qute likely that the next COOL period (Easterbrook says were in it) will be warmer than the last WARM period. Fluctuations can be explained by cycles - but the underlying trend cannot. Again, taking the global mean temperature (problematically derived and mathematically dodgy, no matter how you slice it), worse, the "anomaly" version of same, as significant of ANYTHING is a piece of intellectual malignancy. The planet knows little or nothing of these minute perturbations, which have, at any rate, been occurring throughout the Holocene and long, long before. Our body temperature fluctuates throughout the day. There's a reason most people don't send panicked e-mails to their friends about this. Or maybe some of you do?  Meanwhile, the SOI has been on an impressive tear these last several days. tinyurl.com/449yp9e |
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Post by matt on Apr 3, 2011 11:23:42 GMT
And the long term trend has flatlined. Now we must understand why, over a period of more than a decade, that this has happened. Is this signaling a change to a colder climate? IF so, are we ready? It is obvious the fish and dolphins and turtles are not ready. Huge kills in the Gulf of Mexico because of the cold sea temps there. I don't relish the huge kills of mankind because of a colder climate that might be coming. The long term trend has not flatlined. Each decade has been warmer than the previous. Natural variation has made temperatures flat over the short term but the underlying trend is definitely up. We are essentially as warm now during a La Nina as we were in during 1998's super El Nino. Your fears are unwarranted. There is no evidence that we will cool back to what used to be normal, let alone cooler than normal. It isn't happening. You might as well be concerned that the sun will nova. |
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