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Post by matt on Apr 1, 2011 12:24:02 GMT
Hi Twawki, Thanks for posting. I have La Nina finally waning in late August in my forecast. Until then, we will remain in this colder-than-normal phase overall. You may notice temperature spikes in the general climate in North America, with one day being above normal, mid-70s, then the following days cooler than normal. Spring wants to come, but La Nina keeps temperatures from stabilizing to seasonal temps. Overall, the spring is cooler than normal going into summer as La Nina values begin to show more slippage towards neutral phase, however. Until then the northern hemisphere will be cooler than normal overall during the spring season, according to my calculations. Your "calculations" are wrong. This spring has been warmer than normal by a large degree. You should look at some actual data occasionally. |
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Post by icefisher on Apr 1, 2011 15:15:31 GMT
Your "calculations" are wrong. This spring has been warmer than normal by a large degree. You should look at some actual data occasionally. Obviously you haven't looked at any data Matt. |
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Post by glc on Apr 1, 2011 19:33:15 GMT
Your "calculations" are wrong. This spring has been warmer than normal by a large degree. You should look at some actual data occasionally. Obviously you haven't looked at any data Matt. Why don't you produce the data to prove him wrong? I'd suggest the first 3 months of this year were pretty close to normal. This, though, assumes the last 30 year period was "normal". If we were to compare 2011 (so far) with most of the 20th century then - Matt's right - 2011 is above normal. According to UAH, the first 2 months of 2011 were very slightly cooler than the the first 2 months of 1987. There was an El Nino iin 1986/87 which just happened to be peaking in Jan/Feb 1987. So the coolest period of a La Nina in 2011 is almost as warm as the warmest period of an El Nino in 1987. I'm sure this has got something to do with thermal (solar) lags and/or a recovery from the LIA (whatever that's supposed to mean) or some other speculative garbage. |
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Post by matt on Apr 1, 2011 20:10:38 GMT
Your "calculations" are wrong. This spring has been warmer than normal by a large degree. You should look at some actual data occasionally. Obviously you haven't looked at any data Matt. Feb 2011 was a FULL .44C warmer than the 1951-1980 average. Obviously you are WAY wrong. |
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Post by hunterson on Apr 1, 2011 21:53:16 GMT
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Post by matt on Apr 1, 2011 22:49:53 GMT
You're taking temperatures elevated by global warming and calling them "normal"! UAH uses 1981-2010 to get that figure. February 2011 was SIGNIFICANTLY warmer than normal, using any reasonable definition of normal. Of course, the new normal is inflated temperatures, so I suppose you could call 2011 average. There certainly is no way to call 2011 "cooler than normal" which was what Astromet called it. |
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Post by icefisher on Apr 1, 2011 23:26:51 GMT
Matt said: "Your "calculations" are wrong. This spring has been warmer than normal by a large degree. You should look at some actual data occasionally." Obviously you haven't looked at any data Matt. Why don't you produce the data to prove him wrong? According to UAH, the first 2 months of 2011 were very slightly cooler than the the first 2 months of 1987. LOL! Last I checked GLC and Matt, Jan and Feb is winter, not spring. Spring officially started a little over a week ago. |
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 1, 2011 23:49:58 GMT
Hi Twawki, Thanks for posting. I have La Nina finally waning in late August in my forecast. Until then, we will remain in this colder-than-normal phase overall. You may notice temperature spikes in the general climate in North America, with one day being above normal, mid-70s, then the following days cooler than normal. Spring wants to come, but La Nina keeps temperatures from stabilizing to seasonal temps. Overall, the spring is cooler than normal going into summer as La Nina values begin to show more slippage towards neutral phase, however. Until then the northern hemisphere will be cooler than normal overall during the spring season, according to my calculations. Your "calculations" are wrong. This spring has been warmer than normal by a large degree. You should look at some actual data occasionally. How about you looking at an actual calendar more than occasionally Matt. |
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Post by matt on Apr 2, 2011 0:05:39 GMT
LOL! Last I checked GLC and Matt, Jan and Feb is winter, not spring. Spring officially started a little over a week ago. While it is true that we don't have official numbers for March yet, I'd be happy to bet you that March was indeed warmer than normal. |
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 2, 2011 0:10:56 GMT
LOL! Last I checked GLC and Matt, Jan and Feb is winter, not spring. Spring officially started a little over a week ago. While it is true that we don't have official numbers for March yet, I'd be happy to bet you that March was indeed warmer than normal. Why don't you try not wanting to see "warm" everywhere you look and remember that Spring 2011 has just begun in the northern hemisphere? My forecast was for a cooler-than-normal spring with winter conditions. Nothing has changed. The "official numbers for March" includes the end of the winter season traditionally as the vernal equinox begins in mid-March Matt. For more on the winter conditions which have continued into March, see the real weather events on the ground, in the real world: PORTLAND, Maine – An April Fools' snowstorm created a winter wonderland Friday in parts of northern New England, sending dozens of cars sliding off roads, knocking out power to thousands and giving tens of thousands of schoolchildren a surprise snow day.
The spring Nor'easter greeted folks on April Fools' Day with thick, wet snow that covered the pavement and stuck to trees, which drooped under the weight.
Falling tree limbs knocked out electricity for more than 60,000 homes and businesses in Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Rhode Island at the storm's peak. In Maine, utility crews planned to work through the night to restore power.
Highways were treacherous during the morning commute, and state police reported that dozens of cars slid off the slippery roads.
Brunswick Naval Air Station spokesman John Ripley gave himself permission to work from home after an aborted attempt to drive to work on I-295.
"It was pretty dicey, to say the least," said Ripley, of Portland, who saw four vehicles off the highway and watched a fifth fishtail before turning back.
In Maine, the coastal town of Hope and the town New Sharon, 60 miles inland, both saw a foot of snow, and many locations approached that amount. But Portland saw only a half-foot of snow, far below the city's record of 11.1 inches for an April Fools' storm in 1922.
Elsewhere, the storm failed to live up to its billing.
In Massachusetts, Fitchburg got 8.1 inches and Boylston saw 7.7 inches, and the numbers tapered to the south. Eastern New York and western Massachusetts saw only a couple of inches of snowfall, far less than originally forecast.
Power outages were the biggest problem in Maine and New Hampshire.
About 25,000 homes and businesses in southern Maine and another 20,000 in southern New Hampshire were in the dark at the storm's peak, officials said. By early evening, more than 10,000 customer accounts were still without electricity in Maine, officials said.
In Portland, Pete Johnson was caught by surprise by the intensity of the storm Friday morning. He didn't believe the weather forecasters, especially after a relatively snow-free March. So, he took off his snow tires.
He said he should've known better.
"If you've done this long enough, you know it's going to snow again," he said, grabbing a cup of coffee before making a slippery drive to Boston for a business meeting.
In Concord, N.H., the parks and recreation department was boasting a week ago about getting its tennis courts ready for spring. On Friday, it switched gears, challenging followers of its Facebook page to submit pictures of snowmen in the parks.
"Old man winter is not giving up without a fight this year," department director David Gill said Friday.
Skiers like John Olif, 23, of Killington, Vt., were thrilled to have more new fallen snow on their local ski mountains.
"Last year at this time, everything was melting. But it's mid-February out here pretty much. It's definitely a treat," he said. "It's 100 percent open and it's April 1. It's a powder day on April Fools', not a joke or anything." |
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Post by icefisher on Apr 2, 2011 0:57:32 GMT
While it is true that we don't have official numbers for March yet, I'd be happy to bet you that March was indeed warmer than normal. I will take that bet as long as you agree to a reasonable definition of normal, like what a typical human being has experienced in his lifetime not try to employ hogwash hockey sticks or extrapolations. |
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Post by matt on Apr 2, 2011 2:14:21 GMT
While it is true that we don't have official numbers for March yet, I'd be happy to bet you that March was indeed warmer than normal. I will take that bet as long as you agree to a reasonable definition of normal, like what a typical human being has experienced in his lifetime not try to employ hogwash hockey sticks or extrapolations. OK, we each pick a dataset and average them. I'll take GISS. The base period should be before AGW got cranked up. GISS uses 1951-1980, I believe. That sounds like a reasonable base period to me. Winner gets bragging rights. How would you like to adjust these terms? |
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Post by matt on Apr 2, 2011 2:16:51 GMT
How about you looking at an actual calendar more than occasionally Matt. In order for March/April to be cooler than normal, April will have to be a degree cooler or so. It ain't happening. The concept is so ludicrous that I called it early. If that disturbs you, so be it. |
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Post by icefisher on Apr 2, 2011 4:44:22 GMT
I will take that bet as long as you agree to a reasonable definition of normal, like what a typical human being has experienced in his lifetime not try to employ hogwash hockey sticks or extrapolations. OK, we each pick a dataset and average them. I'll take GISS. The base period should be before AGW got cranked up. GISS uses 1951-1980, I believe. That sounds like a reasonable base period to me. Winner gets bragging rights. How would you like to adjust these terms? What is your basis for claiming 1951-1980 as normal? Further extrapolations are inappropriate for use in such an exercise unless you can claim a compelling practical basis for it. Obviously accuracy is not one of them as others have chosen to forego polluting their databases in such a manner. Finally averaging anything credible to crap produces nothing but crap. Producing crap might be your claim to fame but count me out as I am not willing to go looking for crap just to play your game. I will instead rely upon satellites as they represent by far the most standardized approach to sampling in this topic area. If you want to average satellite programs over their period of use for a baseline your on. |
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 2, 2011 5:11:14 GMT
How about you looking at an actual calendar more than occasionally Matt. In order for March/April to be cooler than normal, April will have to be a degree cooler or so. It ain't happening. The concept is so ludicrous that I called it early. If that disturbs you, so be it. What? Do you really believe anything you say? Exactly where do you come up with such pure bosh Matt? There are lots of people out there pretending to be forecasters who should check their own sanity (you included) because you simply do not have the most basic understanding of weather (much less climate) down to be able to comment on what temperatures will, or will not be. What is 'disturbing' is that you obviously think having a computer and a keyboard makes you a forecaster. It doesn't. Seeing "warm" everywhere you look, are we? |
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