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Post by AstroMet on Mar 17, 2011 0:48:33 GMT
NOAA predicts return to ENSO-neutral conditions by summer. 30-day SOI remains in NINA mode. Double dip? We'll see ... Yes, as forecasted. We will see signs of La Nina weakening, only to stabilize, and remain in place. We also have snow in Japan on top of the crisis in that nation. The coming lunar perigee will bring about large storms, heavy rains, unusual snowfalls and temperature swings from above normal to below normal this month and into April. We are very much still inside of a La Nina climate phase. |
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Post by matt on Mar 17, 2011 2:35:39 GMT
NOAA predicts return to ENSO-neutral conditions by summer. 30-day SOI remains in NINA mode. Double dip? We'll see ... Yes, as forecasted. We will see signs of La Nina weakening, only to stabilize, and remain in place. We also have snow in Japan on top of the crisis in that nation. The coming lunar perigee will bring about large storms, heavy rains, unusual snowfalls and temperature swings from above normal to below normal this month and into April. We are very much still inside of a La Nina climate phase. LOL Temperature swings from above normal to below normal. Can you get any more nebulous than that? |
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Post by twawki on Mar 17, 2011 5:31:35 GMT
Listening to BOM on radio today they were saying atmosphere is staying in La Nina mode though oceans wernt (temps rising). This happened previously in the 70s where the La Nina ended up being 3 years long. Too hard to tell at the moment and their 'models' are giving conflicting advice!
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Post by AstroMet on Mar 17, 2011 6:23:34 GMT
Listening to BOM on radio today they were saying atmosphere is staying in La Nina mode though oceans wernt (temps rising). This happened previously in the 70s where the La Nina ended up being 3 years long. Too hard to tell at the moment and their 'models' are giving conflicting advice! Hi Twawki, Thanks for posting. I have La Nina finally waning in late August in my forecast. Until then, we will remain in this colder-than-normal phase overall. You may notice temperature spikes in the general climate in North America, with one day being above normal, mid-70s, then the following days cooler than normal. Spring wants to come, but La Nina keeps temperatures from stabilizing to seasonal temps. Overall, the spring is cooler than normal going into summer as La Nina values begin to show more slippage towards neutral phase, however. Until then the northern hemisphere will be cooler than normal overall during the spring season, according to my calculations. |
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Post by neilhamp on Mar 17, 2011 8:22:36 GMT
I follow your forcasts with interest Astromet. Comparison of recent conditions with historic La Niña events is shown below. If your forcasts come about which of these previous events looks like the pattern for 2010-11 ?  |
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Post by twawki on Mar 17, 2011 19:17:39 GMT
it may go towards neutral temporarily then bounce back to full la nina tho SOI still strongly positive
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Post by AstroMet on Mar 19, 2011 6:45:19 GMT
it may go towards neutral temporarily then bounce back to full la nina tho SOI still strongly positive The west coast of the U.S. has been experiencing the effects of La Nina over the past several weeks which continues into this weekend, as reported by AP: The West gets pounded again with heavy snow and low elevation rain. A low pressure system spinning off the West Coast will advance eastward, while a cold front associated with the system will help pull it onshore. As this system moves over the Pacific Northwest and northern California, it will trigger heavy rain showers. Snow levels will remain near 3,000 feet along the Coastal Range in California, and near 1,500 feet along the Coastal Range in Oregon. Meanwhile, the Sierra Nevadas will see heavy snow showers increasing Friday afternoon and evening. Snowfall rates may reach up to 2 inches an hour Friday afternoon, with total accumulation ranging from 6 to 12 inches from the valley floors to the peaks. Caution is urged when driving over high mountain passes Friday afternoon and evening." |
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Post by AstroMet on Mar 19, 2011 23:50:10 GMT
I follow your forcasts with interest Astromet. Comparison of recent conditions with historic La Niña events is shown below. If your forcasts come about which of these previous events looks like the pattern for 2010-11 ? We will have to see after La Nina has finally dissipated. However, it was my forecast that Spring 2011 would continue to see winter conditions, especially in the U.S. Expecting colder temperatures and snow soon for the eastern and mid-western half of the country, as the western half is in the midst of winter storms as well. Winter is not over by far, according to my calculations. We still have a last taste coming, snow and arctic temperatures in North America. See -> www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1368033/Five-minutes-metal-hitting-metal-California-snowstorms-leave-dead-dozens-injured-40-vehicle-pile-up.html?ito=feeds-newsxml |
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Post by AstroMet on Mar 22, 2011 3:27:19 GMT
Listening to BOM on radio today they were saying atmosphere is staying in La Nina mode though oceans wernt (temps rising). This happened previously in the 70s where the La Nina ended up being 3 years long. Too hard to tell at the moment and their 'models' are giving conflicting advice! We're still in a La Nina clime twawki, so early spring will continue to see winter conditions predominate in the northern hemisphere with cooler than normal temperatures, snow an even ice events throughout the hemisphere. La Nina will not be with us for three years though, but just through this year, to about August, when readings will head toward neutral and remain there. We can expect warmer than normal temperatures this summer in some regions in the northern hemisphere, particularly Asia, and parts of eastern Europe, but the spring season will have cooler than normal temperatures along with winter-like events through March and April. |
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Post by heather on Mar 22, 2011 4:08:28 GMT
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Post by AstroMet on Mar 25, 2011 23:27:43 GMT
I follow your forcasts with interest Astromet. Comparison of recent conditions with historic La Niña events is shown below. If your forcasts come about which of these previous events looks like the pattern for 2010-11 ? After this La Niña returns to neutral we can assess what the numbers will look like compared to past La Niña's. We know that the world's climate has been very active over the past 25 years, and this is according to solar-forced global warming. A new studied just published shows that wind speeds have picked up considerably over the oceans ~ "During the last quarter-century, average wind speeds have increased over the world's oceans, as have wave heights, generating rougher seas, researchers reported in a study published online Thursday.
Since faster winds cause more evaporation, the increase could lead to more water vapor in the air, compounding any increase from global warming and providing added moisture for rain. Generally, that means a higher chance for rainfall.
Researchers led by Ian Young of Swinburne University of Technology in Australia report in the journal Science that over a 23-year period, average wind speed over the oceans rose by 0.25 percent per year.
The proportion of increase in wave height was less than for wind speed, the researchers noted, while the increase for extreme winds was more than for average winds.
The researchers said the higher winds aren't necessarily the result of global warming.
But Eugene S. Takle, director of the climate science program at Iowa State University, and not part of Young's research team, noted that evaporation rises with higher wind speeds, so the result would be more moisture in the air even without global warming.
And the warming shown in many studies would also increase evaporation.
Just two years ago, Takle and colleagues published a study of wind speeds over land showing a decrease, rather than the increase Young's team found in its measurements from satellites and buoys.
Young studied satellite records from 1985 to 2010, though records for 1990-91 were not available because of satellite problems.
"I don't think these results provide a clear contradiction to our findings of declining wind speeds over land, since measurements are made in different environments," said Takle.
He noted that the day-to-night changes in temperature are different over land than over water and the boundary layer - the portion of the atmosphere that most closely interacts with the surface - is generally thicker over land than water."
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Post by thermostat on Mar 27, 2011 4:09:30 GMT
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Post by thermostat on Mar 29, 2011 3:31:28 GMT
Hey now, this is fascinating. John McLean is predicting that La Nina will cause global cooling such that 2011 will be cooler than 1956. climaterealists.com/index.php?id=7349"It is likely that 2011 will be the coolest year since 1956, or even earlier, says the lead author of a peer-reviewed paper published in 2009" Whoa! Now that is something! |
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Post by thermostat on Apr 1, 2011 2:41:27 GMT
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Post by magellan on Apr 1, 2011 3:44:53 GMT
Hansen said 2006 would be a "super El Nino" year. I'd suggest checking Met O's forecast (prediction?) records, but they've deleted all traces  |
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