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Post by AstroMet on May 8, 2011 8:42:44 GMT
Thermostat: You think it is a cycle, but that doesn't rule out that it is a driver. As chaotic as climate is.....hard to really tell. Sigurdur, El Nino redistributes heat in the system, it does not add or subtract heat. A driver adds or subtracts heat from the system. (the present solar cycle has not added or subtracted significant heat from the system; this cycle does not drive long term change in climate; ie the solar cycle has not added long term heat to the system.) The current warming during a prolonged solar minimum is due to a positive driver, not a solar cycle. A correction here Thermostat - Your sentence is a contradiction. The driver is the Sun, which has its cycles, mainly those of its northern and southern magnetic fields. For one, we have not been in a 'prolonged solar minimum.' We have been at the tail end of solar cycle #23, which has had the Sun's south polar magnetic field high on scale since 1998-99, which was our last major ENSO era. We are about to see the rise of the Sun's northern field strength, which is the start of solar cycle #24 in my forecast. The nadir of the Sun's northern field came in late 2008, which was announced as the solar minimum. This was the reason for ENSO, as forecasted in advance astronomically. The Sun is the driver of the Earth's climate. The magnetic field reversal of the Sun is causing La Nina to wane. This will continue through May, June and July until values are at neutral fully by August in my estimation. The climate is about to heat up again for a couple of years. All of this is solar-forced. Expect drier and warmer than average temperatures with drought events popping up in various regions. These years, from 2012-2017, are the remaining years of a 36-yr. global warming cycle. I've got Solar cycle #24 at maximum by 2013-14 with the sun's northern magnetic field strength peaking by the mid-Twenty Tens and then waning in the year 2017, which I've forecasted to be the end of the current global warming phase we've been in since 1981 and the start of global cooling. |
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Post by richard on May 8, 2011 14:13:15 GMT
For one, we have not been in a 'prolonged solar minimum.' The 23/24 solar minimum was the deepest and longest in around a century. |
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Post by thermostat on May 10, 2011 3:03:22 GMT
For one, we have not been in a 'prolonged solar minimum.' The 23/24 solar minimum was the deepest and longest in around a century. Richard, Thank you for your insight. I agree, the recent solar minimum has been unique. If the sun drives climate we should be experiencing some pleasant cooling (certainly not destructive tornado outbreaks or massive floods;) this has been a deep and long solar minimum after all. |
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Post by thermostat on May 10, 2011 3:11:16 GMT
Sigurdur, El Nino redistributes heat in the system, it does not add or subtract heat. A driver adds or subtracts heat from the system. (the present solar cycle has not added or subtracted significant heat from the system; this cycle does not drive long term change in climate; ie the solar cycle has not added long term heat to the system.) The current warming during a prolonged solar minimum is due to a positive driver, not a solar cycle. A correction here Thermostat - Your sentence is a contradiction. The driver is the Sun, which has its cycles, mainly those of its northern and southern magnetic fields. For one, we have not been in a 'prolonged solar minimum.' We have been at the tail end of solar cycle #23, which has had the Sun's south polar magnetic field high on scale since 1998-99, which was our last major ENSO era. We are about to see the rise of the Sun's northern field strength, which is the start of solar cycle #24 in my forecast. The nadir of the Sun's northern field came in late 2008, which was announced as the solar minimum. This was the reason for ENSO, as forecasted in advance astronomically. The Sun is the driver of the Earth's climate. The magnetic field reversal of the Sun is causing La Nina to wane. This will continue through May, June and July until values are at neutral fully by August in my estimation. The climate is about to heat up again for a couple of years. All of this is solar-forced. Expect drier and warmer than average temperatures with drought events popping up in various regions. These years, from 2012-2017, are the remaining years of a 36-yr. global warming cycle. I've got Solar cycle #24 at maximum by 2013-14 with the sun's northern magnetic field strength peaking by the mid-Twenty Tens and then waning in the year 2017, which I've forecasted to be the end of the current global warming phase we've been in since 1981 and the start of global cooling. asrtomet, just one thought... you wrote "The Sun is the driver of the Earth's climate." Let me suggest, the earth's atmosphere is a key mediator of that driver. |
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Post by trbixler on May 10, 2011 3:45:47 GMT
El Nino la nina oceans?
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Post by thermostat on May 10, 2011 4:07:28 GMT
trbixler, The oceans and their cycles move heat around the system. Got it. More interesting is the question of where the recent heat being added has been going. Into the ocean, yeah, but how so? |
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Post by phydeaux2363 on May 10, 2011 4:09:03 GMT
The 23/24 solar minimum was the deepest and longest in around a century. Richard, Thank you for your insight. I agree, the recent solar minimum has been unique. If the sun drives climate we should be experiencing some pleasant cooling (certainly not destructive tornado outbreaks or massive floods;) this has been a deep and long solar minimum after all. With all due respect, Mr. Thermostat, I disagree. Both the recent North American floods and tornado outbreaks could very well be caused by cooling. The river flooding has two components: first, melting of an above average snow pack, and secondly, heavy rains caused when unusual late season cold air masses moved into the central US and collided with warm tropical air from the GOM. It's the cool air moving south that is unusual, not the warmth, which is typical of spring air moving north. I believe the tornadic outbreaks had a similar genesis in the clash of normal warm air with unusual cold air moving south into central North America. This is further shown by the fact that both March and April temperature anomalies were quite low, and trending downward. I think cooling could definately have played a role in both the floods and the tornados, although they are probably "just weather.". |
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Post by thermostat on May 10, 2011 4:15:46 GMT
Richard, Thank you for your insight. I agree, the recent solar minimum has been unique. If the sun drives climate we should be experiencing some pleasant cooling (certainly not destructive tornado outbreaks or massive floods;) this has been a deep and long solar minimum after all. With all due respect, Mr. Thermostat, I disagree. Both the recent North American floods and tornado outbreaks could very well be caused by cooling. The river flooding has two components: first, melting of an above average snow pack, and secondly, heavy rains caused when unusual late season cold air masses moved into the central US and collided with warm tropical air from the GOM. It's the cool air moving south that is unusual, not the warmth, which is typical of spring air moving north. I believe the tornadic outbreaks had a similar genesis in the clash of normal warm air with unusual cold air moving south into central North America. This is further shown by the fact that both March and April temperature anomalies were quite low, and trending downward. I think cooling could definately have played a role in both the floods and the tornados, although they are probably "just weather.". This is quite a nonobvious explanation, I suggest you submit it for publication. |
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Post by phydeaux2363 on May 10, 2011 4:24:36 GMT
With all due respect, Mr. Thermostat, I disagree. Both the recent North American floods and tornado outbreaks could very well be caused by cooling. The river flooding has two components: first, melting of an above average snow pack, and secondly, heavy rains caused when unusual late season cold air masses moved into the central US and collided with warm tropical air from the GOM. It's the cool air moving south that is unusual, not the warmth, which is typical of spring air moving north. I believe the tornadic outbreaks had a similar genesis in the clash of normal warm air with unusual cold air moving south into central North America. This is further shown by the fact that both March and April temperature anomalies were quite low, and trending downward. I think cooling could definately have played a role in both the floods and the tornados, although they are probably "just weather.". This is quite a nonobvious explanation, I suggest you submit it for publication. Perhaps "nonobvious"only to one who sees AGW as the cause of all severe weather, and has blinded himself to any other explanation. |
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on May 10, 2011 5:32:02 GMT
I thought thar Phydeuax's post was extremely clear and exactly right. He was also very polite which has been in short supply lately. It is clear to all that there is NO extra heat in the system. All of the global temperature records indicate that there is no extra heat in the system at this time, unless you want to argue that a few hundredths of a degree have caused the problem, but I bet that no one on this board is stupid enough to do that as it has been quite a bit warmer in the recent past with no ill affects like what we have seen. We have also witnessed a strong La Nina, and cooling, perhaps this IS a possible cause...
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Post by steve on May 10, 2011 9:16:06 GMT
Would it not be correct to say that the warm air from the GoM was warmer than usual. So it was if anything a combination of "unusual cold" *and* unusual warmth.
It hasn't been "quite a bit warmer in the recent past". I won't say it is "stupid" to believe that because I am usually "very polite".
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on May 10, 2011 14:49:05 GMT
Forgive me for being stupid Steve, but I was thinking, stupidly perhaps, that last spring was quite a bit warmer. So forgive me for thinking that a .4c global anomaly is significantly warmer then a .01c anomaly. I don't know what came over me...
Next time, I promise when I am trying to figure out if .4 is significantly more then .01 I will ask you...
So for the record, so I don't stupidly get it wrong... If the global anomaly is .01 and there is bad weather that kills people and people might be paying attention, this is significant. But when the anomaly is .4 and nothing bad happens, it is not significant. The variable in this case is not the actual temperature, but rather if it supports your agenda.
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Post by woodstove on May 10, 2011 15:12:12 GMT
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Post by steve on May 10, 2011 15:27:06 GMT
dontgetoutmuch,
I don't think you should depend just on satellite temperatures as these measure the atmosphere above the surface. The weather is a function also of surface and ocean temperatures. In that sense 0.4 is not significantly above 0.01 because once the La Niña has been out of the way for a bit it will warm up again.
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Post by AstroMet on May 10, 2011 18:35:05 GMT
Richard, Thank you for your insight. I agree, the recent solar minimum has been unique. If the sun drives climate we should be experiencing some pleasant cooling (certainly not destructive tornado outbreaks or massive floods;) this has been a deep and long solar minimum after all. With all due respect, Mr. Thermostat, I disagree. Both the recent North American floods and tornado outbreaks could very well be caused by cooling. The river flooding has two components: first, melting of an above average snow pack, and secondly, heavy rains caused when unusual late season cold air masses moved into the central US and collided with warm tropical air from the GOM. It's the cool air moving south that is unusual, not the warmth, which is typical of spring air moving north. I believe the tornadic outbreaks had a similar genesis in the clash of normal warm air with unusual cold air moving south into central North America. This is further shown by the fact that both March and April temperature anomalies were quite low, and trending downward. I think cooling could definately have played a role in both the floods and the tornados, although they are probably "just weather.". Good post Phydeaux, Although La Nina values will continue to decline back to neutral we will remain with the effects of La Nina for most of this year as the clashes of cool and warm air systems that caused the tornadoes and heavy rains that have led to the floods continue into May. It's been quite an eventful climate cycle since mid-2009 for the world with many weather records broken by ENSO, which is solar forced. |
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