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Post by richard on May 10, 2011 19:07:27 GMT
It's been quite an eventful climate cycle since mid-2009 for the world with many weather records broken by ENSO, which is solar forced. What records? And how does the sun drive ENSO? Got anything but unsubstantiated (and erroneous) claims? |
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Post by codetalker on May 10, 2011 20:14:41 GMT
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Post by phydeaux2363 on May 10, 2011 20:28:58 GMT
Not sure I agree, Mr. Stove. The La Nina is weakening. Of that there is little doubt. Much of what I've read, however, leads me to believe we may see a more or less neutral ENSO index for at least the rest of 2011, and maybe beyond. Perhaps more like the 2001 to 2006 period, but a little colder as the cold PDO gains hold, and the impact of the solar minimum is felt. That being said, my hero Yogi Berra had it right; "it's tough to make predictions, especially when they are about the future." But make them I will, if for no other reason to discover why I was wrong, and thereby sharpen the forecasting skill. |
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Post by woodstove on May 10, 2011 21:06:14 GMT
Not sure I agree, Mr. Stove. The La Nina is weakening. Of that there is little doubt. Much of what I've read, however, leads me to believe we may see a more or less neutral ENSO index for at least the rest of 2011, and maybe beyond. Perhaps more like the 2001 to 2006 period, but a little colder as the cold PDO gains hold, and the impact of the solar minimum is felt. That being said, my hero Yogi Berra had it right; "it's tough to make predictions, especially when they are about the future." But make them I will, if for no other reason to discover why I was wrong, and thereby sharpen the forecasting skill. I don't purport to know -- I just wanted to bring attention to the string of negative values in the SOI, first such in a while. |
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Post by AstroMet on May 11, 2011 8:56:45 GMT
It's been quite an eventful climate cycle since mid-2009 for the world with many weather records broken by ENSO, which is solar forced. What records? And how does the sun drive ENSO? Got anything but unsubstantiated (and erroneous) claims? Yeah, I forecast using the Sun's activity, which is the natural force that drives the Earth's climate. I don't know where you come up with using the words 'unsubstantiated' and 'erroneous' since if you are unaware that the Sun forces the Earth's climate then you are surely clueless Richard. Now, You don't need a paper to prove this - all you have to do is use your own eyes and common sense. However, if you can't raise your IQ on your own - then why don't you do some serious study of historical records and modern ones on the Sun and Earth's climate rather than mouthing off like an idiot? |
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Post by AstroMet on May 11, 2011 10:26:49 GMT
Not sure I agree, Mr. Stove. The La Nina is weakening. Of that there is little doubt. Much of what I've read, however, leads me to believe we may see a more or less neutral ENSO index for at least the rest of 2011, and maybe beyond. Perhaps more like the 2001 to 2006 period, but a little colder as the cold PDO gains hold, and the impact of the solar minimum is felt. That being said, my hero Yogi Berra had it right; "it's tough to make predictions, especially when they are about the future." But make them I will, if for no other reason to discover why I was wrong, and thereby sharpen the forecasting skill. La Nina will continue to weaken as this cycle is also regulated by the Sun, which regulates the oceans. The earth is always undergoing climate change as forced by astronomical forces. My forecast sees warmer seasons ahead through to about 2014, when we will see another cold anomalous winter; however, we are on the downward phase of global warming through to 2017 when we officially begin global cooling. |
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Post by richard on May 11, 2011 14:01:58 GMT
What records? And how does the sun drive ENSO? Got anything but unsubstantiated (and erroneous) claims? Yeah, I forecast using the Sun's activity, which is the natural force that drives the Earth's climate. I don't know where you come up with using the words 'unsubstantiated' and 'erroneous' since if you are unaware that the Sun forces the Earth's climate then you are surely clueless Richard. Now, You don't need a paper to prove this - all you have to do is use your own eyes and common sense. However, if you can't raise your IQ on your own - then why don't you do some serious study of historical records and modern ones on the Sun and Earth's climate rather than mouthing off like an idiot? Why the insults? Are you that insecure? You have given absolutely no evidence that you forecast based on anything except guessing, and I've noticed you claim to be right even when 100% wrong. As to serious study and IQ, you haven't a clue. Stop being a troll. |
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Post by AstroMet on May 12, 2011 9:15:20 GMT
Yeah, I forecast using the Sun's activity, which is the natural force that drives the Earth's climate. I don't know where you come up with using the words 'unsubstantiated' and 'erroneous' since if you are unaware that the Sun forces the Earth's climate then you are surely clueless Richard. Now, You don't need a paper to prove this - all you have to do is use your own eyes and common sense. However, if you can't raise your IQ on your own - then why don't you do some serious study of historical records and modern ones on the Sun and Earth's climate rather than mouthing off like an idiot? Why the insults? Are you that insecure? You have given absolutely no evidence that you forecast based on anything except guessing, and I've noticed you claim to be right even when 100% wrong. As to serious study and IQ, you haven't a clue. Stop being a troll. For one, Richard you have absolutely no clue as to what constitutes forecasting since I've not seen you forecast anything of the climate or weather, which may account for you mouthing off as if you know what you are talking about: and you don't. Two, this is the 21st Century and the time for boy games is over, try getting that this is Star Trek and not Gilligan's Island, and you will know the difference between being taken seriously or being treated like a two-year old, which constitutes the bulk of your comments. Three, I started this forecast thread and never guess. My forecasts are not perfect, nor designed to be. I do the best I can with my own ability which I have the balls to publish for all to see and for the general public - unlike some who talk the talk but do not walk the walk. Four - you are the troll Richard. Get a ******* life. Thank you for your keen and kind attention. |
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Post by AstroMet on May 13, 2011 11:32:47 GMT
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Post by codetalker on May 14, 2011 14:21:53 GMT
Thanks.
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Post by thermostat on May 15, 2011 0:32:18 GMT
With all due respect, Mr. Thermostat, I disagree. Both the recent North American floods and tornado outbreaks could very well be caused by cooling. The river flooding has two components: first, melting of an above average snow pack, and secondly, heavy rains caused when unusual late season cold air masses moved into the central US and collided with warm tropical air from the GOM. It's the cool air moving south that is unusual, not the warmth, which is typical of spring air moving north. I believe the tornadic outbreaks had a similar genesis in the clash of normal warm air with unusual cold air moving south into central North America. This is further shown by the fact that both March and April temperature anomalies were quite low, and trending downward. I think cooling could definately have played a role in both the floods and the tornados, although they are probably "just weather.". Good post Phydeaux, Although La Nina values will continue to decline back to neutral we will remain with the effects of La Nina for most of this year as the clashes of cool and warm air systems that caused the tornadoes and heavy rains that have led to the floods continue into May. It's been quite an eventful climate cycle since mid-2009 for the world with many weather records broken by ENSO, which is solar forced. astromet, I suggest that you and phydeaux both submit your novel interpretation for publication. |
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Post by thermostat on May 15, 2011 0:40:26 GMT
Yeah, I forecast using the Sun's activity, which is the natural force that drives the Earth's climate. I don't know where you come up with using the words 'unsubstantiated' and 'erroneous' since if you are unaware that the Sun forces the Earth's climate then you are surely clueless Richard. Now, You don't need a paper to prove this - all you have to do is use your own eyes and common sense. However, if you can't raise your IQ on your own - then why don't you do some serious study of historical records and modern ones on the Sun and Earth's climate rather than mouthing off like an idiot? Why the insults? Are you that insecure? You have given absolutely no evidence that you forecast based on anything except guessing, and I've noticed you claim to be right even when 100% wrong. As to serious study and IQ, you haven't a clue. Stop being a troll. Calm down Richard. Insults are part of 'the experience'. If you stick with it you get used to it. |
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Post by sigurdur on May 15, 2011 1:48:11 GMT
Why the insults? Are you that insecure? You have given absolutely no evidence that you forecast based on anything except guessing, and I've noticed you claim to be right even when 100% wrong. As to serious study and IQ, you haven't a clue. Stop being a troll. Calm down Richard. Insults are part of 'the experience'. If you stick with it you get used to it. One has to read a few threads to understand the gentlemanness of the poster. Also, to understand the value of what is written. |
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Post by thermostat on May 15, 2011 2:37:17 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on May 15, 2011 3:13:25 GMT
Not quit so quickly thermostat. Give it another 2 months. (There are hints of it redeveloping on the anomoly chart)
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