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Post by sigurdur on May 22, 2011 2:21:18 GMT
Could someone here please articulate, briefly, how ENSO explains global climate? That appears to be the premise of this discussion. Thermostat: How does ENSO explain global climate? It doesn't. It contributes to global climate and how it changes. There are other large oceans that also control climate.......regionally, just as ENSO does regionally. Combined, the oceans control global climate through the pressure cells etc. Do they clash at times?.......Ya betcha. Is our current climate as stable as climate in the past?......Ya betcha. |
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Post by thermostat on May 22, 2011 2:47:42 GMT
Could someone here please articulate, briefly, how ENSO explains global climate? That appears to be the premise of this discussion. Thermostat: How does ENSO explain global climate? It doesn't. It contributes to global climate and how it changes. There are other large oceans that also control climate.......regionally, just as ENSO does regionally. Combined, the oceans control global climate through the pressure cells etc. Do they clash at times?.......Ya betcha. Is our current climate as stable as climate in the past?......Ya betcha. sigurdur, It is refreshing to find a forum member who actually thinks about what must be going on. |
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Post by AstroMet on May 23, 2011 2:09:09 GMT
There's plenty on this thread on ENSO which answers your question tstat. Astromet, "The man of many words". You are not the one I would ever expect to provide a concise response to some question; it is not your nature. Fair enough. Then mind the words tstat. Moreover, you don't know my 'nature' to say 'what is in it.' What does that mean? What does any of that have to do with the climate, science and forecasting? And what is with this 'man of many words' shtick you have going on? If you are unable to concentrate for longer than five minutes - especially on climate science - then don't even try tstat because we're not 'texting' or 'chatting' or twittering here. There's plenty on this ENSO thread for you to go back over to see how it has played out worldwide - and with 'concise' responses too. But do this tstat, -try learning and asking good questions to gain knowledge, rather than taking on the tact of rudeness and presumption. That's not science kiddo. |
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Post by richard on May 23, 2011 2:52:01 GMT
But do this tstat, -try learning and asking good questions to gain knowledge, rather than taking on the tact of rudeness and presumption. That's not science kiddo. But do this Astromet, -try learning and asking good questions to gain knowledge, rather than taking on the tact of rudeness and presumption. That's not science kiddo. |
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Post by thermostat on May 24, 2011 2:55:03 GMT
Could someone here please articulate, briefly, how ENSO explains global climate? That appears to be the premise of this discussion. Thermostat: How does ENSO explain global climate? It doesn't. It contributes to global climate and how it changes. There are other large oceans that also control climate.......regionally, just as ENSO does regionally. Combined, the oceans control global climate through the pressure cells etc. Do they clash at times?.......Ya betcha. Is our current climate as stable as climate in the past?......Ya betcha. sigurdur, From everything I read in the literature, you are quite correct in how oceans control climate. ENSO has been found to be a fundamental process here. There is a seperate discussion going on about drivers, factors that force change over time. ENSO has not seriously been on this list. |
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Post by matt on May 24, 2011 5:32:45 GMT
Thermostat: How does ENSO explain global climate? It doesn't. It contributes to global climate and how it changes. There are other large oceans that also control climate.......regionally, just as ENSO does regionally. Combined, the oceans control global climate through the pressure cells etc. Do they clash at times?.......Ya betcha. Is our current climate as stable as climate in the past?......Ya betcha. sigurdur, From everything I read in the literature, you are quite correct in how oceans control climate. ENSO has been found to be a fundamental process here. There is a seperate discussion going on about drivers, factors that force change over time. ENSO has not seriously been on this list. I think you're being a tad generous. ENSO is not a fundamental process in how the oceans control climate, but a fundamental process in weather, as it averages out over time. Oceans do influence climate, but much of their influence is over eons as continents and ocean basins move. |
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Post by AstroMet on May 24, 2011 14:53:30 GMT
Thermostat: How does ENSO explain global climate? It doesn't. It contributes to global climate and how it changes. There are other large oceans that also control climate.......regionally, just as ENSO does regionally. Combined, the oceans control global climate through the pressure cells etc. Do they clash at times?.......Ya betcha. Is our current climate as stable as climate in the past?......Ya betcha. sigurdur, From everything I read in the literature, you are quite correct in how oceans control climate. ENSO has been found to be a fundamental process here. There is a seperate discussion going on about drivers, factors that force change over time. ENSO has not seriously been on this list. The driver of the Earth's climate is in space, that's the Sun, and it drives and regulates all changes, both in the short, medium and longer-term on the climate and resulting weather, this includes ENSO. Any and all climate events are not 'drivers' but are effects from causes in space. |
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Post by sigurdur on May 24, 2011 17:42:33 GMT
sigurdur, From everything I read in the literature, you are quite correct in how oceans control climate. ENSO has been found to be a fundamental process here. There is a seperate discussion going on about drivers, factors that force change over time. ENSO has not seriously been on this list. I think you're being a tad generous. ENSO is not a fundamental process in how the oceans control climate, but a fundamental process in weather, as it averages out over time. Oceans do influence climate, but much of their influence is over eons as continents and ocean basins move. Matt: I am not so sure that ENSO does not affect climate anymore. Climate is a slow moving ship, and to change direction or speed requires time. A very very slight change in the rudder will not be perceptable in the short run, but after 40 knotical miles, it is. A very VERY small change....no mass change...no speed change...nothing else changed.. just a 1,000th of a MM change in the rudder. IF snow in Tibet is affected by the AMO.....then this indicates world wide effects from ocean cycle changes. |
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Post by handyman on May 24, 2011 23:32:47 GMT
When all is said and done - when people have come to the firm knowledge and conclusion that anthropogenic global warming was a total scam - then we will have justice. But valuable time will have been lost in prepping for the onset of global cooling - ever more so dangerous than global warming could ever be; yet few of these ideologues want to talk about it and I know that they do not see it coming because they can't forecast seasonally, much less years in advance. But, the ideologists contend humanity is the cause of climate change? How can humanity stop the power of the Sun? How can humanity change the laws of physics? The laws of thermodynamics? How is that even possible? Quite simply, it is possible because, after a time, the ideologue begins to believe his own press. The lie becomes the truth in his head. After all, it's human nature. We all need to believe in something, as Carl Sagan once said. We can choose to believe the truth, by constantly testing our theories and hypotheses against reality, leaving no stone unturned that might disprove them. Or we can let blind faith lead us to carefully choose the tests that favor our hypotheses, and in turn, our desire to believe in those somethings of our creation. Unfortunately, the unchanging truth was known long ago by the Creator of all things. It is not subject to change although our understanding of it (and our understanding of the extent of it) may increase over time. If we choose to believe things that come out of our own heads and ignore the various truths, rather basing our assumptions on reality (of which much is still beyond our understanding), then we ultimately are doomed to fail. Those who take the shortcut may, in their own world, make merry for a time, but the bubble will ultimately burst. And when that happens, their downfall is certain. And it ain't gonna be pretty, for the ideologue or those who also put faith in his press. |
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Post by thermostat on May 26, 2011 4:57:56 GMT
sigurdur, From everything I read in the literature, you are quite correct in how oceans control climate. ENSO has been found to be a fundamental process here. There is a seperate discussion going on about drivers, factors that force change over time. ENSO has not seriously been on this list. I think you're being a tad generous. ENSO is not a fundamental process in how the oceans control climate, but a fundamental process in weather, as it averages out over time. Oceans do influence climate, but much of their influence is over eons as continents and ocean basins move. matt, I am not attempting to be generous, but rather I'm interested in understanding the science. The oceans are most important to climate. ENSO is well known to have far reaching effects. matt, this forum is not so interested in the eons; it is interested in understanding today. ENSO is an important issue in understanding today. |
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Post by AstroMet on May 26, 2011 14:29:03 GMT
When all is said and done - when people have come to the firm knowledge and conclusion that anthropogenic global warming was a total scam - then we will have justice. But valuable time will have been lost in prepping for the onset of global cooling - ever more so dangerous than global warming could ever be; yet few of these ideologues want to talk about it and I know that they do not see it coming because they can't forecast seasonally, much less years in advance. But, the ideologists contend humanity is the cause of climate change? How can humanity stop the power of the Sun? How can humanity change the laws of physics? The laws of thermodynamics? How is that even possible? Quite simply, it is possible because, after a time, the ideologue begins to believe his own press. The lie becomes the truth in his head. After all, it's human nature. We all need to believe in something, as Carl Sagan once said. We can choose to believe the truth, by constantly testing our theories and hypotheses against reality, leaving no stone unturned that might disprove them. Or we can let blind faith lead us to carefully choose the tests that favor our hypotheses, and in turn, our desire to believe in those somethings of our creation. Unfortunately, the unchanging truth was known long ago by the Creator of all things. It is not subject to change although our understanding of it (and our understanding of the extent of it) may increase over time. If we choose to believe things that come out of our own heads and ignore the various truths, rather basing our assumptions on reality (of which much is still beyond our understanding), then we ultimately are doomed to fail. Those who take the shortcut may, in their own world, make merry for a time, but the bubble will ultimately burst. And when that happens, their downfall is certain. And it ain't gonna be pretty, for the ideologue or those who also put faith in his press. Very well said. |
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Post by AstroMet on May 28, 2011 0:11:41 GMT
ok new here ..but how can you say things are above normal ? day time temps seem avg or just below .. cept for the couple of weeks of good weather we had ..and the weather men said we need rain ...lol but night time temps are well below normal 3-6 deg c for may ? and yes the last 2 winters were bad to say the least..but i see many more comming .. I don't know how old you are but the 2009/10 winter was cold but not remarkably so. There were several winters in the 1960s/70s/80s which were just as cold. how can you say things are above normal ? I can say it because it's true. This is the CET (Central England Temperature) record for 2011. www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html Note the anomalies (i.e. how much above normal the temperature was for each month) Jan -0.1 deg Feb +2.6 Mar +1.0 Apr +3.9 May (up to 14th) +2.3 The year as a whole is almost 2 deg above normal. May seems a lot cooler because there were several days in April which were above average temperatures for June. Incidentally, April 2011 was the warmest April (by quite a bit) in the entire (over 350 years) record. Whoa there Glc, you 'say the warmest' in over 350 years yet you simply shrug off the lessons of the last several winters? Big mistake to drink down anything the Met Office there states. Why would you continue to do that? My forecast for a cold wet spring continues to prove itself out in the weather. As La Nina wanes we continue to witness the effects of this climate event into June in North America - Heavy Snows spoil weekend holiday plans in U.S. West
"AP -- May 27, 2011 -- Denver, Colorado – Ski resorts are bustling with activity. A key highway into Yellowstone is closed because parts of the road have seen more than 25 feet of snow. And campgrounds are feverishly removing snow from campsites to clear the way for visitors.
Welcome to Memorial Day weekend in much of the West.
The traditional kickoff of the summer season will have a decidedly wintry feel in the Rocky Mountains, as well as California's Sierra Nevada, because of a lingering record snowfall.
Epic snowpack in parts of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Oregon and California is forcing many tourists to abandon the annual rites of launching their summer holidays with a camping trip.
Others plan to take advantage of prolonged skiing and snowshoeing this strange spring.
In Denver, Brooke Schmidgall had her sights set on high-country camping this weekend as she shopped for gear at a sporting goods store.
"I'll bring my snowshoes," she said. "We have a big family tent. It will be nice and warm."
Rocky Mountain National Park's popular Trail Ridge Road is closed because of 17-foot snow drifts.
Normally, holiday motorists can cruise at altitudes surpassing 11,000 feet but not this year.
Janelle Smith, spokeswoman for the U.S. Forest Service's Rocky Mountain region, recommended that campers consider heading to lower elevations — like Arizona or New Mexico.
Campers in Idaho were being warned to check first before heading to camping areas — or risk being turned back by lingering drifts or muddy, impassable roads. In Oregon, some resorts were still trying to dig out cabins, let alone campgrounds, from snow pack.
Yellowstone National Park has just one campground open. "We're telling people to be prepared for snow," said park spokesman Al Nash
In other parts of Wyoming, officials have extended winter closures of wildlife management areas to campers.
The reason: To protect wildlife from humans because animals are still searching for food at lower elevations. The Bridger-Teton National Forest Avalanche Center is fully staffed to warn outdoors enthusiasts.
"May snow depths are deeper than anything we have seen in the last 45 years," said avalanche center spokesman Bob Comey.
In California, a historic Sierra Nevada snowpack is making Yosemite National Park's springtime cascading waterfalls especially beautiful — and dangerous, with several accidental drownings already of people who failed to keep away from thundering waterfalls and swollen creeks and rivers.
But snow has kept rangers from installing a cable railing that helps hikers maintain their footing at Yosemite's iconic Half Dome. Anyone holding one of the allocated permits to climb will be out of luck this weekend.
"That was the caveat when people signed up — you may be out of luck depending on the snowmelt," park spokesman Scott Gediman said.
Park officials instituted the permit system last year to limit traffic to 400 people a day. Best guess is that the Half Dome route could be open by June 5, Gediman said.
Farther north, some popular campgrounds in Tahoe National Forest aren't expected to open for several weeks.
"We're still selling backpacks, because people are still geared up for the season," said Jeff Dostie, a clerk at Alpenglow Sports in Tahoe City, Calif. "But they're buying for the future, they're not buying for today."
While the snow is bad for some campers, it's great for skiers in Colorado and elsewhere. Aspen is reopening 136 acres of trails for skiing this weekend, and Arapahoe Basin has extended its closing dates beyond June 5.
"We're getting amazing ski traffic for this time of year because of this snowpack," Dostie said of the conditions in the Lake Tahoe region along the California-Nevada border.
But for Idaho's Lookout Ski and Recreation Area, the recent flurries must seem like a lost opportunity. The resort near the Montana line has been closed since April.
"Insane weather! Snowing like crazy here," Lookout's Twitter feed said Thursday afternoon, May 26, 2011."
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Post by thermostat on May 28, 2011 2:10:49 GMT
sigurdur, From everything I read in the literature, you are quite correct in how oceans control climate. ENSO has been found to be a fundamental process here. There is a seperate discussion going on about drivers, factors that force change over time. ENSO has not seriously been on this list. I think you're being a tad generous. ENSO is not a fundamental process in how the oceans control climate, but a fundamental process in weather, as it averages out over time. Oceans do influence climate, but much of their influence is over eons as continents and ocean basins move. fair enough. I am inclined to agree. ENSO is a cycle, not a driver. |
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Post by thermostat on May 30, 2011 1:38:56 GMT
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Post by thermostat on Jun 1, 2011 2:23:18 GMT
La Nina is over. fyi.
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