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Post by glennkoks on Jan 3, 2021 13:37:36 GMT
Personally I do not think much will happen on January 6th. There will be theatrics in Congress. A large group of Trump supporters will have a mostly peaceful rally with a few exceptions.
However, the potential exists for this to spread like a California wildfire in a strong Santa Anna wind. I do not think it was an accident that the 600.00 dollar checks just hit peoples banks. Happy people are much less likely to rebel then hungry and broke ones.
However, there is a fine line between being a patriot and being a traitor. Standing up against a rigged election to protect our Republic is by definition patriotic. Starting a rebellion because you do not like the outcome of the election is treason. Typing behind your keyboard protected by the veil of free speech is one thing. Actually pulling the trigger on a fellow American is another.
The stakes are as high as they come. There is a huge line between talk and action and the consequences of action are as high as they come.
My place in all this? On January 6th I am going to work to provide for my family like I have done on every January 6th since I can remember. I still have faith in our very conservative supreme court and our legal system in general. "If" there was widespread fraud on a scale large enough to overturn the results of this election the Trump camp has done a very, very poor job of stating their case. It is one thing to cry "fraud" and "rigged election on Twitter and another to provide clear proof our legal system can act on.
I would highly recommend that anyone caught up in all this should turn off the news station of your liking, turn off the computer, take three deep breaths and spend time with your loved ones. The potential exists for our lives to be changed forever on January 7th.
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 27, 2020 13:51:38 GMT
President Trump does not have the support from his own party, the Justice Department, the FBI or the Supreme Court to pull off a January 6th miracle... But there is one scenario that would require the Sergeant-at-arms to arrest senators and drag them back into the chamber to make a quorum. It's worth the read, especially for you guys still holding on to hope. thehill.com/opinion/white-house/530306-no-biden-hasnt-won-yet-one-more-nightmare-scenario
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 27, 2020 13:32:29 GMT
That is a good question. I guess you have to balance how many people are going to die from the wave vs the panic created by emergency alert. I guess you warn them and hope for the best? Personally I would like the opportunity to get my family to the heights of the Texas Hill Country in the 14-16 hours given...
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 17, 2020 0:40:16 GMT
That's a problem isn't it... no one knows what to invest in right now. Stocks are too high, bonds are too high, gold is too high, reits seem risky during the shutdown but with high dividends, and cryptos are just weird. I think that many people don't even care about a big return right now, they just want to know what's a safe store of value this year. Guns, Ammo, tools seeds come to mind...
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 16, 2020 12:25:06 GMT
I agree with Code. I think his demeanor cost him votes at the same time it energized the democratic base. A base that has a history of staying home instead of getting out to vote. Self reflection is a good thing. So my advice to President Trump would be to use the next four years to work on his image, accentuate the positive and eliminate some of the negative. Tone down the name calling and use Twitter and other social media wisely instead of childishly. And read this book, a dash of Reagan would go along way with Mr. Trump. Because I think he will be back in four years.
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 16, 2020 2:06:13 GMT
It's not over yet. Want him or don't want him. It's not over yet.
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 15, 2020 0:54:39 GMT
The fact is the election is now over. Multiple court challenges have failed. The Supreme Court sent Ken Paxton packing and last minute seldom if ever used procedures in the electoral college have all now passed.
Barring a miracle Biden is President.
It's not the way I would have liked it to happen but reality is reality. As a Republic we will endure and the new battle cry will be...
Trump 2020
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 13, 2020 14:22:13 GMT
I do not want to sound like a pessimistic perma-bear but in my part of the world I have noticed a substantial increase in the number of "For Lease" signs on strip centers, warehouses and other buildings. In addition last night I attended a surprise birthday party at a local hotel and convention center. For a Saturday night the Restaurant was empty. The bigger banquet halls, normally full of companies celebrating their annual Christmas parties were empty. Very, very few people staying in the hotel. Empty NFL and College football stadiums, Diners, Bars, Holiday parties, weddings, cruise ships.... the list really goes on and on, are all pretty much decimated. Adapting has never been a strong suit of bureaucrats. They will continue at "business as usual" until they get the deer in the headlights look and they come to the realization that tax revenue is a fraction of what it was prior to Covid. When you think about it the market is really the only thing giving us any kind of sign for hope. In my opinion this market is overpriced and more out of touch with reality than at any other time in my life. And it's not just me. Over the years no one has had as good as a feel for where the market is at quite like Warren Buffett. His "Buffett Indicator" compares the total value of the stock market to GDP. It's near a record high. markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-indicator-nears-record-high-threatens-stock-market-crash-2020-12-1029857054
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 12, 2020 1:11:55 GMT
phys.org/news/2020-12-sunspot-strongest.htmlHmmmm..... no 'Maunder like Min' then? In fact the potential for one of the strongest cycles yet seen with a peak between 210 & 260? If 'low Solar' really does mean cooling what would a supercharged Cycle mean for us?(we know the potential for satellites & driven currents on the surface should we see plenty of X flares driving massive CME's?) For over 2 decades certain folks have been promising me a run of deep solar Mins & now, with the discovery of the 22 yr 'magnetic cycle' (offset from the 11yr solar cycle) seems to undo all of that at the worst possible time!!!! Welcome back. Despite the early burst and the study "forecasting" the highest peak in our history I would be willing to bet this solar cycle is less than the 116 of solar cycle 24. Any takers?
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 10, 2020 21:07:36 GMT
Glennkoks, you have been bearish on stocks for some time. I turned bearish yesterday and made my first move accordingly. I had been making decent money by selling well out-of-the money puts. I did not make this specific move but yesterday morning I was tempted to take the money I was investing in selling puts and instead, buy puts. What about buying 1,000 SPY (S&P 500 ETF) 370 December 31 puts at $6.80? My last suggestion here at the very beginning of the US COVID infection was that airline and cruise stocks would likely be hit hard, (they were then at their all-time highs). That turned out to be very lucky. But buying puts now could be equally unlucky so don’t do anything based on my rantings. Don't take advice from strangers. I have been on the sidelines for months. I got out when the DOW was around the 27,000 range. I figured I would wait until after the election madness and see how Covid was going as we moved into winter. So I have clearly missed some growth. I am still skeptical of the market. I don't see how we can shut down the economy to level we did and still see positive gains in the market. My plan now is to take a "wait and see" approach and wait for retail sales numbers after Christmas. My guess is they are going to be bad but I clearly do not understand this market... Your suggestion of selling this market short seems good to me. We have been on a decade long Bull and it's got to come to an end sometime. And I clearly see headwinds in our future.
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 10, 2020 1:41:39 GMT
As most of you know I am from Texas. While I do not think my conservative credentials should be in question at times I have been critical of President Trump. I call them like I see them. But from the files of what comes around goes around I think this kind of hits home...
"Trump personally asked U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, to argue the case before the court if the justices agree to hear it, The New York Times first reported Wednesday."
So Trump is asking "Lying Ted" to argue his case before the Supreme Court? So you want a person you labeled "lying Ted" to argue a "Hail Mary" before the Supreme Court?
Good Luck with that. What comes around goes around...
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 8, 2020 1:43:27 GMT
If I wanted the U.S. to succeed I would make December 7th a national holiday. A quick trip to CNN, FOX, Bloomberg and OAN and I could not find a word about it. Here in Texas the only visible sign were flags flying at half mast. God Bless Trump for establishing December 7th as Pearl Harbor remembrance day. We should never forget as we owe a great debt to the Greatest Generation.
I watch this video with my kids every December 7th. It gives me chills.
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 6, 2020 13:08:53 GMT
I could not disagree more. An election has been lost, not our nation. Our Republic has endured many such elections based on the principles established by our founding fathers. Anything but a peaceful transition of power to the duly elected President Elect is unacceptable. We do not have mob rule. We have an electoral college as a check to the populations of the cities and twice in the last five elections it has saved us from the tyranny of the masses. I have faith in both our electoral and judicial process's. If there was truly voter fraud on a scale big enough to have an effect on our nation I have faith in our judicial system. Considering the number of registered democrats nationwide, the polling and prediction markets it is certainly not beyond the realm of possibility that Biden won and is the legitimate "President Elect". This is the first time the USA has an election faked in which the winners have zero regard for the Constitution none. The only reason they are trying to make it appear that they are playing by the rules now is that they are not sufficiently in power. I expect that in two years time the Constitution may well have been discarded or at least disregarded in so many areas that it is effectively history. Once the USA has lost that, it has lost everything. Note you are quoting the rules for elections based on the Constitution: this literally may be the last time you can do that. You are playing by the rules the other side is not - when that happens you lose. Was the election faked? The vast majority of Trumps claims concerning voter fraud have been tossed out by the courts in multiple states. Many by Republican judges. In the case of Arizona and Georgia we have states with a history of Republican leadership from the Governor all the way down to local level. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, He won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by the narrowest of margins then against one of the worst candidates any party has ever nominated. Almost every poll had him down in these states in this election. He was a substantial longshot. If there was fraud on a scale big enough to change this election the Trump lawyers are doing a horrible job stating their case. They have lost the majority of the rulings and many have been before Republican Judges with conservative records or Republican appointed judges. In the case of Arizona and Georgia in traditionally Republican strongholds. While I agree that there was fraud and probably has been in every election for centuries they are having a hard time proving the fraud was big enough to overturn even a traditionally conservative state like Arizona or Georgia.
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 6, 2020 4:25:36 GMT
The country has already been lost, we do not have a functioning political system. Let's see what Trump has in the works. Any response is reasonable at this point, legal or not. I could not disagree more. An election has been lost, not our nation. Our Republic has endured many such elections based on the principles established by our founding fathers. Anything but a peaceful transition of power to the duly elected President Elect is unacceptable. We do not have mob rule. We have an electoral college as a check to the populations of the cities and twice in the last five elections it has saved us from the tyranny of the masses. I have faith in both our electoral and judicial process's. If there was truly voter fraud on a scale big enough to have an effect on our nation I have faith in our judicial system. Considering the number of registered democrats nationwide, the polling and prediction markets it is certainly not beyond the realm of possibility that Biden won and is the legitimate "President Elect".
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 6, 2020 3:12:05 GMT
Tuesday is safe harbor day. If a state has certified the results by December 8th Congress must accept the results as valid. Trumps last chance will be on December 14th when the electors cast their ballots.
The reality is that Trump is just about out of time.
His chances of being inaugurated are miniscule.
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