|
Post by AstroMet on Nov 1, 2012 9:10:31 GMT
Thanks Magellan. I didn't know about that. Appreciate it.
|
|
ray
New Member
Posts: 35
|
Post by ray on Nov 2, 2012 14:43:55 GMT
thanks theo.
|
|
|
Post by fly guy on Nov 15, 2012 19:44:30 GMT
Theo, New to this site and spent a lot of time reading your postings and predictions. Your percentage of accuracy is very impressive. Definitely interested in subscribing to your new service. Until that is available I want to say thanks for your effort in making your information public. We farm in the upper midwest (SE MN) and we were very fortunate to catch some timely rains that most of the corn belt missed. At this time do you have any thoughts as to South America's ability to raise a trend line yield? It sounds like the areas that were too wet are now drying out and the areas that were too dry are getting some much needed moisture to start their season. Maybe you already have this posted on another site?
Mark
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Nov 16, 2012 15:55:57 GMT
Hi Mark: Welcome to the board. Nice to have another farmer here.
|
|
|
Post by fly guy on Nov 27, 2012 23:10:37 GMT
Sigurdur, thank you for your welcome. I see that you are very active not only on this post but on other posts as well. Your topics of discussion are impressive, you really do put a lot of effort in trying to gain insight into climate forcasting. It is obvious that you have done a lot of studying. From a farmers perspective I believe that you are headed in the right direction. I can't think of any other factor that can influence the markets more and I do believe that anything that we can learn about upcoming seasons with say a probability of 65% accuracy will definitely add to our ability to make our day to day management decisions at farm level, such as; hi-bred selections or various crops with highest probability of success. Not only is drought a concern but the aspects of this coming climate cool down within this decade is scary. With dry conditions you may have less of a crop but what grain you do get is generally of good quality. With the potential of cold growing seasons immature crops that don't make it are costly all the way around, tough to harvest, tough to handle, expensive to dry. I see that you've gotten into discussions that talk of a significant cooling trend once we get through this warmer dry spell we're in now. Astromet has talked of turning cooler sometime after 2015. I was talking to a friend of mine from the Quad City area and he said that he was at a seminar last winter, can't tell you who was speaking or where it was, but one thing stuck out in this guys mind was that the speaker felt it would be difficult to get a cereal grain to maturity around 2018 in North America anything North of I-80. My friend said that when this guy made that comment you could've heard a pin drop in the crowd. I apologize for not remembering the speakers name. Good luck and I'll be following your guys' insight closely. P.S. I hope Astromet is doing well. Mark
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Nov 28, 2012 0:20:43 GMT
Mark: It looks like you have it figured out that I have no political agenda when I do research or post. I suspect that the fellow who gave the talk about climate was Drew Learner. I have recognized for some time that the forecasting ability on a regional scale is not very good from NOAA nor IRI which is a compendium of many model runs. That does leave us, as food producers, to fly by the seat of our pants. The risk factor anymore is so huge on an annual scale, that one needs to use all available data to help making management decissions. I try to bring up topics that affect climate that affects a large region. I don't know much, but I most certainly am curious. What I find most baffling is that the direction of research now is so tied to CO2 that it has become pretty worthless. There are most deff other factors at work concerning long term climate patterns, trends, etc. We know from Herschels works that ag production is tied very closely to the sun output, sunspot numbers etc. The variations are small in TSI, but those variations seem to be able to cause a widespread shift in climate. I too am worried about the coming cooling. One of the major impacts will be on Canada....and I am very close to Canada. Take their production out of the global picture, not to mention the Steps area of the Ukraine, and we are in a world or hurt throughout the world. As Nautommier showed on a different thread, when cooling started in earnest, widespread starvation in Europe, because of failed harvsts, caused the Dark Ages. AT that time there were not the weaphons etc that the world has today. There is nothing that will drive folks to panic moreso than an empty cupboard. One can makeshift in a lot of areas during times of need, but food is not one of those areas. And to top it off, most folks couldn't grow a garden if their life depended on it. We are in perilious times at present, the world has had ample havests to build food reserves, but for some reason, no one wants to do so as the idea of empty cupboards is foreign to them. One thing history has shown us is that what has happened in the past will most certainly happen in the future. I am anxious to talk to Mr. Osborn in a couple of weeks. The guy is really sharp and so very personable. I have his number in my phone, and will prob call him tomorrow with a heads up question concerning the historical jet stream patterns. Just gotta love living in North Dakota......
|
|
|
Post by pilgrim on Nov 28, 2012 3:30:46 GMT
quote from Mark:
" Astromet has talked of turning cooler sometime after 2015. I was talking to a friend of mine from the Quad City area and he said that he was at a seminar last winter, can't tell you who was speaking or where it was, but one thing stuck out in this guys mind was that the speaker felt it would be difficult to get a cereal grain to maturity around 2018 in North America anything North of I-80. My friend said that when this guy made that comment you could've heard a pin drop in the crowd. "
Hello everyone
I am new to the board and to posting here so bear with me. I learned of the coming Dalton cycle from Larry Acker of Polo, IL. He first brought it to my attention in December of 2008. Here are some of his comments that you will hopefully find interesting:
6. The coldest weather ever experienced in much of the US should begin on Dec 2, 2019. Extremely cold winter into 2020 and very cool to cold summer. Be sure to have your furnaces fixed and ready to run all year. Very cold in July; expect the northern US to have a killing frost or even freezes at that time. North Dakota, Montana, northern Minnesota as well as much of Canada could have snow in mid-July. Much of the US may not have any crops, and the southern part of the US will have a reduced crop. Europe will be in even worse shape, with Great Britain having almost nothing to eat. This period will be over extensive parts of the Earth, so this will be a world wide problem.
7. Number 6 sounds really bad, but it gets worse all the way into May of 2022. A severe frost is possible in central US in August of 2021. This cold could freeze out crops as far south as the Florida everglades, southern Texas and northern Mexico. Other areas around the world such as southern Europe and South Africa may also be frozen out by this unbelievably cold weather. The winters will be brutal in many areas, with many more record lows set from December, 2020-May, 2022. There will also be some very cold summer days, with many new low records set.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Nov 28, 2012 18:55:46 GMT
Thanks Pilgrim - welcome to the board. Interesting if disturbing forecasts from Larry Acker 3fforecasts.com/about-larry-acker/However, as it seems Anchorage Alaska may be getting this years snow before last year's has melted it may be that things are on the way down. Grow lines moving to South of Texas would not be good. Glad I am here (Florida), but perhaps I should start storing grain and canned goods more than just a hurricane supply.
|
|
|
Post by dontgetoutmuch on Nov 28, 2012 23:23:45 GMT
Thanks Pilgrim - welcome to the board. Interesting if disturbing forecasts from Larry Acker 3fforecasts.com/about-larry-acker/However, as it seems Anchorage Alaska may be getting this years snow before last year's has melted it may be that things are on the way down. Grow lines moving to South of Texas would not be good. Glad I am here (Florida), but perhaps I should start storing grain and canned goods more than just a hurricane supply. I don't know about that. We are at about 25% of our average snowfall THIS season. Of course we had record snow here last season. We had 4 avalanches hit the berm above the house last year. (The 4th one topped the berm and missed the house by about 4 feet) On the other hand, it has been COLD!!! November will end up well below average with about 3 warm days, 5 fairly normal days and the rest below normal to well below normal. Yesterday for example. The temperature yesterday was exactly ten degrees below normal. Personally this year has been the coldest in Alaska that I have EVER heard. January at my house was 35 degrees below average. We did not have any summer to speak of, and the fish never came... Well, OK, the Reds (Sockeye) showed, but not the Kings,(Chinook) or Silvers.(Coho) Even the Pinks(Humpback) and Dogs(Chum) were few and far between. Oh, and I hope Piligrim was wrong. If the weather is as cold as he says, the first person I'm going to eat is Al (Well Marbled) Gore, followed by Michael (Bacon) Mann. And on down the food chain...
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on Nov 29, 2012 5:59:35 GMT
Svalgaard, Dr. Leif. “Geomagnetic Indices - Regular Irregularity and Irregular Regularity - A Journey.†Powerpoint presented at the IAGA 11th, September 27, 2009 Geomagnetic variation is an extremely complicated phenomenon with multiple causes operating on many time scales, characterized by 'regular irregularity, and irregular regularity'. The immense complexity of geomagnetic variations becomes tractable by the introduction of suitable geomagnetic indices on a variety of time scales, some specifically targeting particular mechanisms and physical causes. We review the historical evolution of the 'art of devising indices'. Different indices [by design] respond to different combinations of solar wind and solar activity parameters and in Bartels' [1932] words "yield supplemental independent information about solar conditions" and , in fact, have allowed us to derive quantitative determination of solar wind parameters over the past 170 years. Geomagnetic indices are even more important today as they are used as input to forecasting of space weather and terrestrial responses. ———. “Solar Wind During the Maunder Minimum.†Powerpoint presented at the Predictive Science, San Diego, CA, September 4, 2012. www.leif.org/research/Solar%20Wind%20During%20the%20Maunder%20Minimum.ppt Working Hypothesis (Pg 45) - The Maunder Minimum was not a deficit of magnetic flux, but - A lessening of the efficiency of the process that compacts magnetic fields into visible spots - This may now be happening again - If so, there is new solar physics to be learned Livingston, W., M. J. Penn, and L. Svalgaard. “Decreasing Sunspot Magnetic Fields Explain Unique 10.7 Cm Radio Flux.†The Astrophysical Journal Letters 757, no. 1 (2012): L8. iopscience.iop.org/2041-8205/757/1/L8 Infrared spectral observations of sunspots from 1998 to 2011 have shown that on average sunspots changed, the magnetic fields weakened, and the temperatures rose. The data also show that sunspots or dark pores can only form at the solar surface if the magnetic field strength exceeds about 1500 G. Sunspots appear at the solar surface with a variety of field strengths, and during the period from 1998 to 2002 a histogram of the sunspot magnetic fields shows a normal distribution with a mean of 2436 ± 26 G and a width of 323 ± 20 G. During this observing period the mean of the magnetic field distribution decreased by 46 ± 6 G per year, and we assume that as the 1500 G threshold was approached, magnetic fields appeared at the solar surface which could not form dark sunspots or pores. With this assumption we propose a quantity called the sunspot formation fraction and give an analytical form derived from the magnetic field distribution.We show that this fraction can quantitatively explain the changing relationship between sunspot number and solar radio flux measured at 10.7 cm wavelengths.
|
|
|
Post by karlox on Nov 29, 2012 9:25:22 GMT
quote Geomagnetic variation is an extremely complicated phenomenon with multiple causes operating on many time scales, characterized by 'regular irregularity, and irregular regularity' unquote This sounds to me as Fractal Maths... I would like to know if there is a known work or Author on possible Fractal solutions as a response to sun physics and variables (Solar Cycles Charts looks quite "fractal" as well... That would require collaboration between maths and physics experts...
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Nov 29, 2012 11:25:26 GMT
quote Geomagnetic variation is an extremely complicated phenomenon with multiple causes operating on many time scales, characterized by 'regular irregularity, and irregular regularity' unquote This sounds to me as Fractal Maths... I would like to know if there is a known work or Author on possible Fractal solutions as a response to sun physics and variables (Solar Cycles Charts looks quite "fractal" as well... That would require collaboration between maths and physics experts... There are many people that have been there before. They have also been looking at the reason for the patterns. See the work of Rhodes Fairbridge and Theodore Landscheidt (google both and you will find lots of papers). This has been taken up in part by Roger Tattersall (see Tallblokes Talkshop tallbloke.wordpress.com/ ) who is regularly 'crossing swords' with Lief Svalgaard as they have opposing points of view (although I think they may be having a noisy and vituperative agreement ) Much of the discussion is on orbital mechanics and the 'Sun is in freefall' vs 'Sun is orbiting a barycenter' points of view. You should also look at the site of Vukcevic www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/MVfiles.htm who looks at cycles and related planetary effects. Lots and lots of reading
|
|
|
Post by karlox on Nov 29, 2012 12:43:33 GMT
quote Geomagnetic variation is an extremely complicated phenomenon with multiple causes operating on many time scales, characterized by 'regular irregularity, and irregular regularity' unquote This sounds to me as Fractal Maths... I would like to know if there is a known work or Author on possible Fractal solutions as a response to sun physics and variables (Solar Cycles Charts looks quite "fractal" as well... That would require collaboration between maths and physics experts... There are many people that have been there before. They have also been looking at the reason for the patterns. See the work of Rhodes Fairbridge and Theodore Landscheidt (google both and you will find lots of papers). This has been taken up in part by Roger Tattersall (see Tallblokes Talkshop tallbloke.wordpress.com/ ) who is regularly 'crossing swords' with Lief Svalgaard as they have opposing points of view (although I think they may be having a noisy and vituperative agreement ) Much of the discussion is on orbital mechanics and the 'Sun is in freefall' vs 'Sun is orbiting a barycenter' points of view. You should also look at the site of Vukcevic www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/MVfiles.htm who looks at cycles and related planetary effects. Lots and lots of reading Sure there is! Hope it is ´understandable´ to my level I´ve realized that reliable graphics of solar cycles sunspots count and solar flux looks very much like a fractal structure right in front... but that´s only a feeling derived from learning how fractal formulae are widely using in creating artifitial landscapes -such as mountains chains- being totally realistic, but then we are talking on design and animation and art... but... who knows?
|
|
|
Post by fly guy on Nov 29, 2012 13:56:10 GMT
Nautonnier, Thanks for Larry Acker's link. It will be fun following this guy. Wow, it looks like he is a major player in the markets! Larry looks to be basing his forecast mostly on cycles, where Astromet is doing scientific assessment of cause and effect of sun activity? At any rate, sure wish I would have known of these guys 4 years ago. Watching channel 9 weather in the evening is okay if you are trying to figure out whether to mow the lawn tomorrow or not. Taylor out of Iowa State pokes at long range forecasts but he is so vague it is virtually useless.
Thanks to everybody for your links and comments. I'm going to try and get more farmers to check out this site.
Mark
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Dec 3, 2012 22:59:46 GMT
quote from Mark: " Astromet has talked of turning cooler sometime after 2015. I was talking to a friend of mine from the Quad City area and he said that he was at a seminar last winter, can't tell you who was speaking or where it was, but one thing stuck out in this guys mind was that the speaker felt it would be difficult to get a cereal grain to maturity around 2018 in North America anything North of I-80. My friend said that when this guy made that comment you could've heard a pin drop in the crowd. " Hello everyone I am new to the board and to posting here so bear with me. I learned of the coming Dalton cycle from Larry Acker of Polo, IL. He first brought it to my attention in December of 2008. Here are some of his comments that you will hopefully find interesting: 6. The coldest weather ever experienced in much of the US should begin on Dec 2, 2019. Extremely cold winter into 2020 and very cool to cold summer. Be sure to have your furnaces fixed and ready to run all year. Very cold in July; expect the northern US to have a killing frost or even freezes at that time. North Dakota, Montana, northern Minnesota as well as much of Canada could have snow in mid-July. Much of the US may not have any crops, and the southern part of the US will have a reduced crop. Europe will be in even worse shape, with Great Britain having almost nothing to eat. This period will be over extensive parts of the Earth, so this will be a world wide problem. 7. Number 6 sounds really bad, but it gets worse all the way into May of 2022. A severe frost is possible in central US in August of 2021. This cold could freeze out crops as far south as the Florida everglades, southern Texas and northern Mexico. Other areas around the world such as southern Europe and South Africa may also be frozen out by this unbelievably cold weather. The winters will be brutal in many areas, with many more record lows set from December, 2020-May, 2022. There will also be some very cold summer days, with many new low records set. Most of those on SolarCycle and other climate/weather boards know of my longer-range forecast for global cooling to officially begin in 2017. I have consistently said that we are, at present, on the downward end of solar-forced global warming with now about 4-5 years to go. The transition to global cooling is coming and many nations are unprepared because of the lies of 'man-made global warming' and all the resources and very valuable time that has been wasted on so-called anthropogenic global warming. I continue to maintain that the lie of 'man-made climate change' has consumed precious time and resources that could have been put to much better use preparing for the climate transition I have been forecasting about for years. What is coming is worse than global warming - that's global cooling - featuring floods, stronger blasting cold storms along with below-average-cooler-than-normal temperatures. The reduction of sunlight because of the colder temperatures and increased cloud coverage will also create problems for farmers who must adapt to the climate regime shift. All of that will seriously affect energy and crop yields into the global cooling decade of the 2020s. There is little time to prepare since the last 20+ years have been foolishly spent on the silliness of AGW. Global cooling will take many climate scientists by surprise, but they should not be since I have been forecasting it (along with a few others) for years now. It is coming and again, I maintain that global cooling is much worse than global warming could ever be. I've been making preparations to provide farmers with a long-range forecasting service that will allow them the time to make adjustments in their choices of crops, planting, growing and harvest season planning - ahead of time - so that farmers can make adjustments without losing everything in the process due to the faulty forecasts of 'global warming forever.' That will never happen. We are entering a transitional climate period between solar-forced global warming and solar-forced global cooling that is critical to be able to take advantage of the time left to make substantial changes to how we use energy and grow and harvest crops. Over the short-range - Heading into 2013, generally, we will experience warmer-than-average temperatures. Another series of heat waves like the one I forecasted for last summer will arrive this spring and last through summer 2013. We will see odd warm temperature fluctuations (southern tropical flows) during this winter. The temperatures will increasingly rise in early spring and into another round of blistering heat waves for the summer. This also will continue the lack of rains in the Midwest with extension of the drought which, according to my astrometeorological calculations, lasts into autumn 2013. There will also be above average temperatures and very dry conditions for much of the Midwest, Southwest and South, extending down from the Plains states to Texas-Oklahoma during the planting, growing and harvest seasons of 2013. I have been working on a long-range outlook based on conus grids of North America to help farmers make the transition to global cooling so that they can have a fighting chance in the new colder climate regime that is on the horizon. Many of the climate scientists and their 'global warming forever' forecast models have seriously failed North America's farmers - who I remind everyone - feed the world. You can't eat money and in my book, the only thing worth a damn in this world are good forecasters and great farmers.
|
|