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Post by missouriboy on Feb 7, 2019 2:27:30 GMT
Be careful, Missouribuoy. It can be my new nom de guerre for the alarmist sites ... Oceanbuoy.
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Feb 7, 2019 4:53:10 GMT
Hi all, been a long while! 3 years ago I started my own weather service, so I have been a little preoccupied!
Still lurk occasionally, thought I would say hello. Perhaps ratty will remember I am from Melbourne Australia.
It does appear the warming is done, given we won't see another Super Nino for another decade or so, the oceans are slowly being drained, and I think the next climate shift might not be too far away as missouriboy mentioned. Interesting times, I think the next la Nina is closer than people think.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 7, 2019 16:24:06 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 7, 2019 20:53:56 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Feb 8, 2019 4:05:56 GMT
Hi all, been a long while! 3 years ago I started my own weather service, so I have been a little preoccupied! Still lurk occasionally, thought I would say hello. Perhaps ratty will remember I am from Melbourne Australia. It does appear the warming is done, given we won't see another Super Nino for another decade or so, the oceans are slowly being drained, and I think the next climate shift might not be too far away as missouriboy mentioned. Interesting times, I think the next la Nina is closer than people think. You certainly should be able to collect a lot of weather data extremes down there, Ant. Do you have any more insights, a website perhaps? PS: Check your messages.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 8, 2019 5:43:15 GMT
Hi all, been a long while! 3 years ago I started my own weather service, so I have been a little preoccupied! Still lurk occasionally, thought I would say hello. Perhaps ratty will remember I am from Melbourne Australia. It does appear the warming is done, given we won't see another Super Nino for another decade or so, the oceans are slowly being drained, and I think the next climate shift might not be too far away as missouriboy mentioned. Interesting times, I think the next la Nina is closer than people think. 2021-2022 according to Astro. From the looks of some of this data, it would appear that the warm stuff is cooling off.
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Post by duwayne on Feb 8, 2019 16:52:51 GMT
Hi all, been a long while! 3 years ago I started my own weather service, so I have been a little preoccupied! Still lurk occasionally, thought I would say hello. Perhaps ratty will remember I am from Melbourne Australia. It does appear the warming is done, given we won't see another Super Nino for another decade or so, the oceans are slowly being drained, and I think the next climate shift might not be too far away as missouriboy mentioned. Interesting times, I think the next la Nina is closer than people think. ant42, do you see a super La Nina coming soon?
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Feb 9, 2019 0:36:05 GMT
Hi Duwayne, this is a good question, if you define soon as the next year or two, it's certainly possible. As part of my forecasting service I do a 9 month forecast for rainfall for Australia. Analogs are a bit part of the research as well. And as we all do, reading papers is part of life, I have been doing that since I was 10, and I am now 45. Clearly we are now transitioning into a new era, one that is going to be a cooler era than the previous modern warming we have seen. Sometimes, and especially in situation like this, were most of the teleconnections don't make sense, you have to go back to basics. It appears to me we have an early minimum for SC 24, well before the 2020 forecast, since mid 2018 we have seen the solar activity drop right off. That puts us in the frame for the next La Nina, and the failed El Nino of 2018 tells me that things are about to change. Whether or not that will drop the temperatures in a big way remains uncertain, for the simple fact that warming remains elevated due to increased water vapour at the Poles. If you look at the PW values at the moment in the West pacific, they are simply astonishing, and the record QBO last year in July has meant the MJO has been off the charts. it will now need to settle down and go much less active in the coming months, and if it does, it will allow some sort of la Nina to develop later this year, or perhaps we might see a cool neutral. And then a much bigger go next year. The only issue I have is that I don't see enough cold water building in the North Pacific subsurface, although it was there 6 months ago, especially in the West Pacific subsurface. So a lot to play out, to answer the question I don't think one is that far off, this year may be the one to set it up for next year.
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Post by Ratty on Feb 9, 2019 1:20:17 GMT
Thanks Ant. So ..... it's complex and unlikely to be controlled by one input?
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Feb 9, 2019 3:56:31 GMT
I think as long as the MJO goes quiet, the chances of a late year La Nina will be increasing. I have always followed Astromet here for the last decade and see no reason why he isn't right.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 9, 2019 5:36:37 GMT
So what happened in the 'great climate shift' 0f 1976 and onward? The oceans the Pacific with El Nino and the Atlantic with AMO warm started dumping heat into the atmosphere, cheering from the alarmists about the rise in temperatures. This happened in several steps warm SST -> hotter atmosphere So repeat that - Heat leaving the ocean to the atmosphere where inevitably it goes to space. The comments we have from people like Joe Bastardi are that cooling will 'take some time as the oceans have to lose their heat' - but that is what we have been watching since 1976. Now what do we see? Could we have been watching the oceans cooling for the past 40 years or so and not realized it? Now that the Sun has gone quiet perhaps there is not sufficient short wave energy to keep up with the ocean heat loss. Or to put it another way, could the atmospheric temperatures drop faster than people expect as the surplus heat has already mainly left the oceans?
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Post by Ratty on Feb 9, 2019 6:03:04 GMT
So what happened in the 'great climate shift' 0f 1976 and onward? The oceans the Pacific with El Nino and the Atlantic with AMO warm started dumping heat into the atmosphere, cheering from the alarmists about the rise in temperatures. This happened in several steps warm SST -> hotter atmosphere So repeat that - Heat leaving the ocean to the atmosphere where inevitably it goes to space. The comments we have from people like Joe Bastardi are that cooling will 'take some time as the oceans have to lose their heat' - but that is what we have been watching since 1976. [ Snip ] Could we have been watching the oceans cooling for the past 40 years or so and not realized it? Now that the Sun has gone quiet perhaps there is not sufficient short wave energy to keep up with the ocean heat loss. Or to put it another way, could the atmospheric temperatures drop faster than people expect as the surplus heat has already mainly left the oceans? I, for one, hope it is a quick descent so I will have time to tell a few people " I told you so!" (Sorry Sig.) Once the scam was exposed, a quick rise back to Goldilocks climate levels would be appreciated.
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Feb 9, 2019 11:30:06 GMT
I believe the lag time is such that the drop takes decades, if not centuries, and Solar has now been declining since 1960. And what makes it more intriguing is that the Cold AMO of 1962-1994 was much colder than the previous cold cycle, assuming the data collected back in the days is accurate. We should see the same drop you would think, the key will be if the PDO goes cold for a good portion of the next decade, that will also make the drop off a bit steeper.
However, if we see a sharp drop, and rapidly in the next decade, then the Solar people will be back at the forefront and maybe they are right that Solar does have a more immediate impact.
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Post by Ratty on Feb 9, 2019 12:57:26 GMT
It's the Sun, Stupid' Those who think the political war on carbon will lower Earth’s temperature or keep climate stable need to study climate history.
Temperatures on Earth dance to a cyclic rhythm every hour, every day, every month, every season, every year, and to every beat of the sun-spot and glacial cycles.
The daily solar cycle causes continual changes in temperature for every spot on Earth.
It produces the frosts at dawn, the mid-day heat and the cooling at sunset. It is regulated by rotation of the Earth.
Superimposed on the daily solar cycle is the monthly lunar cycle, driven by the orbit of the Moon around the Earth. These two cycles interact to produce variations in atmospheric pressure and tides, and currents in the oceans and the atmosphere.
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 9, 2019 23:57:15 GMT
The Humboldt current is going west too fast. Wonder why??? Good catch Sig. Nobody has satisfactorily explained (perhaps I missed it) the mechanics behind the Great Climate Shift of 1976 that raised Northern Hemisphere temperatures by a goodly amount within a decade, at least in the continental US. I do not doubt that our great liquid heat reservoirs and their movements have strong effects on land climate patterns and their changes. But I don't think that the oceans drive themselves. Most of the posts I remember seemed focused on the Pacific. If the 1976 "shift" raised temperatures significantly over a decade, they can possibly lower temperatures by a similar amount over a decade. After all, any lapse is in the water, as land has little to no thermal storage capacity. I think that the Great Gore could serve double duty as an ocean buoy. I saw your post for a second there DuWayne ... and then it disappeared. Odd that the Great Climate Shift of 1976 started about 216 years after the Industrial Revolution. I guess the CO2 in the atmosphere just decided to ramp up the warming in 1976? It is also odd that most of the temperature and ice cover data from the so called "satellite era" starts in 1980. Which almost coincides with the starting point of the modern warm period. I am not a climatologist but is it "unreasonable" to think that whatever caused the climate to shift in 1976 could cause the climate to shift again at any time? But in the other direction? Or does CO2 trump (no pun intended) these natural swings?
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