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Post by sigurdur on Jun 18, 2010 20:02:25 GMT
For my area I hope the forcast is correct as we would start approaching normal highs. Will still be a bit below them, but that is a lot better than our past 6 weeks of 7-20F below our normal temps. The forcast last week was for this week to be warm.....didn't happen. I hope the reliability of the forcast models is better for next week. Kinda like the reliability of the GCM's. Not very good over 12 hours. The hydro cycle is so unpredictable that no model can predict, as the understanding is so limited as of yet.
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Post by touko on Jun 18, 2010 20:06:13 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 18, 2010 20:20:36 GMT
Touko: Once again....observations trump people who are wrong. The only month that has been above average was April. May has come in 2.8F below average which is quit dramatic. The Canadian Praries have the same weather as I have...May was cold and wet, early June has been cold and wet. Boots on the ground sir.......boots on the ground. And yes, when you take the dramatic cooling of the ocean in the past 6 months...we have cooled big time globally. Remember, the folks who write things for papers write to sell papers. They are not interested in the facts, but what will sell papers. There is a large push for co2 legislation, so everything is blamed on warming when in fact the cooling has provided much more disruption than any percieved warming. Read and learn....
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Post by icefisher on Jun 18, 2010 20:26:46 GMT
Your news is a few weeks old Touko. A few weeks is near an eternity for those northern farmers. Here is an article saying these guys are now facing an "agricultural disaster" that is "unbelievably large". It appears that 27% of the province will go unseeded. Hopefully a warm and wet but not too wet summer will provide for a bumper crop of what did get seeded and that much of it gets harvested before the frost sets in since most of it was seeded late.
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Post by boxman on Jun 18, 2010 20:34:42 GMT
So that weather of yours is "global cooling". Since you're in the cooling know, at what temperature will it quit being "global cooling"? Some time next week perhaps, looking at your forecast? Touko It still might be the early effect from the most likely coming global cooling. Some areas experience the effects first and we do know that jet streams have been more south than normal for 3 years straight now and possible 4 years after this year. The change in jet stream could explain why weather patterns have been odd this year. Even you must admit that weather patterns have been pretty odd this year.
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Post by touko on Jun 18, 2010 20:38:17 GMT
A few weeks is near an eternity for those northern farmers.
Ok, did you know Mr Touko is living as far north in Europe as the people in Fairbanks, AK?
Sigurdur -- working on the theory of transition temperature from/to global cooling are you not, my teacher?
Touko
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 18, 2010 20:42:26 GMT
boxman: If you look at how much the Pacific Ocean has cooled in such a short time, (Ref Pielke Sr blog amongst many others)......and look at past events of cooling, it explains what is happening in the western NA contintent. History is something to learn from. I have stated in the past that cooling is the largest threat to mankind as one crop failure of magnitude will wipe out all surplus food stocks. All the money spent on AGW should have been spent building stockpiles of food. The single largest threat to mankind is hunger, and we are only months away from that at any given time. The just in time mentality has crept into the food chain. The warming of past 30 years has allowed that change as a warmer climate is much more productive than a cold climate. I believe we are in for one hell of a shock....and I am not happy about it. Not only because I am a farmer, but mostly because I am a human who sees this as totally avoidable and such a mis-use of resources.
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 18, 2010 20:48:52 GMT
Touko: You have to use the correct metric. Heat content is the metric. Temp is useful when it actually freezes, but as far as actual warmth, it is a useless metric. You can have a one ton rock that is 80F.....and a two ton rock that is 80F. The two ton rock has a lot more heat than the one ton rock. The atmosphere and oceans work the same way. Both of the rocks are 80F.......but one has a lottttttt more heat.
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Post by touko on Jun 18, 2010 21:04:51 GMT
You have to use the correct metric. Heat content is the metric.
I see I see. What have you measured for the heat content at your farm right now? What is the heat content transition limit for global cooling on/off state, my teacher?
Touko
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 18, 2010 21:29:05 GMT
Touko: Thank you for understanding that because of your limited knowledge you are a student. That is a step in the correct direction. Now that you understand you are a student, you will begin to absorb this board. We are all students here, sharing information in a gentlemanly manner. I am glad to see that you are learning proper decorum when addressing someone.
Global cooling has been ongoing for some time. Even Prof Jones admits to that. I will defer to him as an authoritive figure. Not only has the temp remained static, but the oceans have cooled since 2003. The adjustments to the ARGO buoy system have been completed as far as they dare. The trend even with that adjustment is still negative. So, as a whole, since 2003 the overall temp has been on a cooling trend. As for my farm? It has been on a cooling trend as well since 2003. I am quit surprised that it is following the global metric, but so be it. I wish it wasn't, as when it was warmer in my area things were much more tranquil and the crops were much better.
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Post by touko on Jun 19, 2010 8:16:01 GMT
It has been on a cooling trend as well since 2003. Teacher please, you said temperature is a poor metric! We need the absolute heat content at your farm, don't we? All the way up to the tropopause! I'm going to find myself a new teacher pretty soon if he can't neither stick to his teachings nor calculate based on them. Are you thinking farmers would abandon watching temperature en masse? If the global cooling has been going on in 2009, it must have caused the drought in the prairies in 2009 as well. www.cbc.ca/canada/saskatchewan/story/2009/06/17/drought-concerns.html Clever beast that clobal gooling of yours, both droughts and floods can be caused by it with equal ease! On global ocean cooling: Global hydrographic variability patterns during 2003–2008 (Schuckmann 2009) I don't see a negative trend there. Touko
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 19, 2010 11:33:13 GMT
It is really interesting to watch someone who has never been to a place discuss the current conditions at that place with someone who lives there whose livelihood depends on the observations - and claim that the conditions are not as observed because there is a graph drawn up by someone else who has also not been there -that shows the observer living there is incorrect.
Like the Mongolian farmers with cattle dying being told that the temperatures in their area were at record highs - look here is a GISS graph showing it.
Normally, when you have a paper or graph that has been generated and it does not match actual on the ground observations sometimes by a long way - a scientist questions the source of the data and how it was processed for the graph or paper. However, an AGW proponent tells the observers that they are wrong and the _heat_ killed their cattle/stopped them seeding - not the cold - "look there is a graph or web URL showing it warm - so it must be so".
We appear to be witnessing the death of science.
Unfortunately, unlike politicians and post normal 'scientists', animals and plants live in a real world and thrive or die based on real conditions. Humans, currently at the top of the food chain, NEED the food from the animals and plants to survive. We cannot fill our empty stomachs by making a clever point - we actually rely on farmers like Sigurdur being able to get it right and successfully grow food for our survival. All other human activities are as nought if there is insufficient food.
Paul Ehrlich may yet be proven right.
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Post by touko on Jun 19, 2010 11:47:25 GMT
We appear to be witnessing the death of science.
Science is fine, but American people, politics and society are not.
Touko
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Post by icefisher on Jun 19, 2010 12:55:42 GMT
Science is fine, but American people, politics and society are not. Touko A sweaty palmed appraisal of the situation.
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 19, 2010 13:09:54 GMT
We appear to be witnessing the death of science. Science is fine, but American people, politics and society are not. Touko Touko: We may be a bit better at things than you percieve. And no matter how you wish our demise, we are going to be around for quit some time.
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