The Hydrologic Cycle and Outgoing Infra-Red

[nautonnier]

We have been lectured at some length on the Stefan Boltzmann formulae for black body radiation of heat from the surface at the fourth power of temperature etc etc. But at the same it is also an accepted fact that convection carries more heat to the tropopause than radiation:

"The troposphere has the following characteristics.

It extends from the earth's surface to an average of 12 km (7 miles).
The pressure ranges from 1000 to 200 millibars (29.92 in. to 5.92 in.).
The temperature generally decreases with increasing height up to the tropopause (top of the troposphere); this is near 200 millibars or 36,000 ft.
The temperature averages 15°C (59°F) near the surface and -57°C (-71°F) at the tropopause.
The layer ends at the point where temperature no longer varies with height. This area, known as the tropopause, marks the transition to the stratosphere.
Winds increase with height up to the jet stream.
The moisture concentration decreases with height up to the tropopause.
The air is much drier above the tropopause, in the stratosphere.
The sun's heat that warms the earth's surface is transported upwards largely by convection and is mixed by updrafts and downdrafts.
The troposphere is 70% N₂ and 21% O₂. The lower density of molecules higher up would not give us enough O₂ to survive."

www.ucar.edu/learn/1_1_1.htm



Another way of looking at this process is to look at the satellite imagery from the geostationary satellites that provide graphical output showing humidity and outgoing radiation.

Humidity GOES East:

www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

and Outgoing IR also from GOES East:

www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-rb.html

What should be noted in these loops (currently) is that there is dry air over the Gulf region that is ~80f during the day and there is a rather nasty winter storm winding its way into the Dakotas with snow and maximum day temperatures ~20f (below freezing).

So what do we see?

Florida, the Gulf coast and Texas are 80f but show cold. no outgoing IR in the infrared map where the air is dry and only CO₂ is there to retard outgoing IR.

At the same time in the Dakotas it is VERY cold yet we can see huge amounts of IR being emitted by the freezing clouds as water changes state.

Given these observations - is it safe to use the Stefan Boltzmann formula that is based only on black body radiation based on temperature when it is accepted (by UCAR) that heat is mainly transported to the tropopause by convection of water and then output on state change and this is shown clearly by the satellites?

[jurinko]

So basically you say the radiation portion is way too much overblown in Trenberth diagrams.



Exchanging numbers of thermals for surface radiation would pretty much settle all debate about "greenhouse effect" I think. How are these Trenberth's numbers calculated btw?

[steve]

The definition of "heat" is a little vague, but usually relates to *net* transfer of energy.

The net rate of transfer of energy by radiation from surface to atmosphere in the Trenberth diagram is 350-324 = 26W/m^2.

[nautonnier]

Nov 22, 2010 11:15:47 GMT steve said:

The definition of "heat" is a little vague, but usually relates to *net* transfer of energy.

The net rate of transfer of energy by radiation from surface to atmosphere in the Trenberth diagram is 350-324 = 26W/m^2.

I am not really interested in diagrams

Look at the satellite images - there is far more outgoing IR from extremely cold well below freezing cloudy weather over the Dakotas than from 'hot' surfaces in the Gulf States and northern Mexico.

So tell me :

• With colder areas emitting more IR - why everyone is using Stefan Boltzmann radiation formulae as the _only_ formula for outgoing IR?
  
  
• how the claim of climate sensitivity to warming and 'positive' feedback is justified when colder areas emit more outgoing IR ?
  
  

Simple questions

[steve]

nautonnier,

I am not really interested in diagrams

Look at the satellite images - there is far more outgoing IR from extremely cold well below freezing cloudy weather over the Dakotas than from 'hot' surfaces in the Gulf States and northern Mexico.

If you click on the "IRTemp" box at the top right of the image, the temperature scale appears at the bottom of the image.

Red colours are cold temperatures and blue colours are warm temperatures!

The colours do not reflect the amount of radiation being emitted.

Traditionally, greyscale infrared images show cold areas as white and warm areas as dark. Presumably this is because the cold areas are clouds and clouds are white to the human eye. So the white colour makes the image easier to comprehend to the human eye - even if they correspond to lower amounts of infrared radiation.

[pidgey]

I see you're still a very NAUTI person, Nauti...

Clouds certainly bounce heat back down. Storms certainly convey heat upwards and virtually vent it to space.

Long term OLR anomaly charts (decadal) show that we've been losing heat in the long haul. Of course, that hasn't seemed to make the papers for some reason...

[northsphinx]

Trenberth's numbers are very telling and support nautonnier observation.
And Steves

Net IR heat transfer TO the atmosphere by radiation is low 350-324 = 26W/m^2.
Net IR heat transfer FROM the atmosphere by radiation is higher 165+30 = 195W/m^2. Or about 7,5 times larger.
Something in the atmosphere DO radiate energy. Rather efficient to.

Double that IR capacity by pressure broadening and what will You get?
More IR emitted from the atmosphere. Up and down.
In Steves nice example is that also change, increease, the negative "back radiation".
Resulting in less net heat transfer to the atmosphere by radiation from surface and more radiation to space from the atmosphere.
That my friend is an increased cooling of the atmosphere.
Surface will be warmer unless this is balanced by convection and latent heat transfer. But we do not measure surface temperatures we measure air temperatures. The atmosphere.
And that will cool, by increased outgoing radiation.
From clouds and from CO2.
Add more clouds and Earth atmosphere will cool. Or more Co2.

[socold]

That's an interesting climate model northsphinx. Are you saying climate models constitute evidence?

[northsphinx]

So You recognize my post as a climate model?
That say a lot of a Your view of climate models. ;D

I see it as a post on a discussion board.

[sigurdur]

Nov 23, 2010 22:52:40 GMT northsphinx said:

So You recognize my post as a climate model?
That say a lot of a Your view of climate models. ;D

I see it as a post on a discussion board.

I can't help it......OUCH!

[steve]

Solarcycle24 hereby introduces the new topic of "climate model existentialism" to the world.

[jurinko]

I have a related question: if only those few molecules of "greenhouse gases" are making the earth surface warmer than, how come that minimum temperature in Sahara, where the air humidity is extremely low, is still so high? The overall "GH effect" should be by magnitudes lower than in humid areas.

www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/latest-model-forecasts/gfs-popup/archiv/MediterraneanSea/tmin2m/2010112500/nothumb/on/144/ch/3fb945188c9aeab10753716a1b524d7c.html

Lets feed such low GH gases into a GCM and see the resulting temperature.

[magellan]

Nov 24, 2010 18:30:49 GMT jurinko said:

I have a related question: if only those few molecules of "greenhouse gases" are making the earth surface warmer than, how come that minimum temperature in Sahara, where the air humidity is extremely low, is still so high? The overall "GH effect" should be by magnitudes lower than in humid areas.

www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/latest-model-forecasts/gfs-popup/archiv/MediterraneanSea/tmin2m/2010112412/nothumb/on/27/ch/09d565fe873ebbb2dcd3fbc0890e8eff.html

Lets feed such low GH gases into a GCM and see the resulting temperature.

If you've ever watched 'The Shining', you'll get it:

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[steve]

Nov 24, 2010 18:30:49 GMT jurinko said:

I have a related question: if only those few molecules of "greenhouse gases" are making the earth surface warmer than, how come that minimum temperature in Sahara, where the air humidity is extremely low, is still so high? The overall "GH effect" should be by magnitudes lower than in humid areas.

www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/latest-model-forecasts/gfs-popup/archiv/MediterraneanSea/tmin2m/2010112500/nothumb/on/144/ch/3fb945188c9aeab10753716a1b524d7c.html

Lets feed such low GH gases into a GCM and see the resulting temperature.

Magellan's answer was very dull

You have shown the model output from the ECMWF model. The ECMWF model is also used as a component of a GCM. So you have your answer already.

[socold]

Nov 23, 2010 22:52:40 GMT northsphinx said:

So You recognize my post as a climate model?
That say a lot of a Your view of climate models. ;D

I see it as a post on a discussion board.

Yep it's a very simple one dimensional climate model.

You didn't put any numbers in it, but you did express how cause and effect between different components of the climate (eg clouds, outgoing radiation, temperature) operate and then "ran" that model to see what would happen if CO2 was increased. And that's how you reached your conclusion.

So what struck me was why is this kind of reasoning acceptable, but doing it in more detail with computers is considered some kind of junk science?