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Post by nautonnier on Dec 12, 2009 19:45:12 GMT
nautonnier I am glad that someone else looked at the data and was wondering what is going on. We do not have any reliable data from the late 40's to early 50's do we? That would be around the last time that the PDO switched from warm to cold....the zenith per se. Curious happenings right now. I don't know if you remember but someone was warning a while back that a new(ish) El Nino seemed to be showing up...El Nino Modoki Someone already mentioned the AMO (atlantic multidecadal oscillation) but europe is also significantly impacted by the polar vortex and especially the NAO (north atlantic oscillation). Interesting discussion, very involved. But perhaps I can offer one cautionary note. Skeptics making preditions about fundamentally chaotic systems are likely to suffer the same fate as the warmists. Better to wait and explain what happened in light of data after the fact. Wouldn't waste much time guessing how long this event will last in other words. Its a suckers game, PDO, AMO or SO. That said, I appreciate that discussion and study of these major ocean circulations, short term and longer term are almost certainly a key player in the global climate. Well the ones that have studied it a bit more know what it's capable of. Back in the late 40s, just after an identical warming trend followed by a plateau...the bottom fell out and everything pretty much stayed like that for 30 years. "Well the ones that have studied it a bit more know what it's capable of. Back in the late 40s, just after an identical warming trend followed by a plateau...the bottom fell out and everything pretty much stayed like that for 30 years."And some NASA/NOAA forecasts are for just that - cooling for at least 3 decades - it makes the panic and pressure for 'immediate action' in Copenhagen more understandable
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Post by thingychambers69 on Dec 12, 2009 20:39:46 GMT
They'll agree on something and do nothing. Thankfully, we learnt many years ago that European politicians give excellent lip service and no action. So when this dip happens it won't really matter, cause nothing would have been done (nothing good anyway).
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 14, 2009 16:34:39 GMT
They'll agree on something and do nothing. Thankfully, we learnt many years ago that European politicians give excellent lip service and no action. So when this dip happens it won't really matter, cause nothing would have been done (nothing good anyway). But the action has been really effective! Look at all the extra tax being raised. Almost every European country has used AGW as an excuse to raise taxes on something. Then there is the European Carbon Cap too... None of these has reduced CO 2 - indeed one of the only major countries to have actually reduced CO 2 is the USA using policies developed under G W Bush no less. The sole aim of all the 'climate change legislation' and 'climate change treaties' is purely to justify higher taxation while possibly enriching the 'golden years' of out to grass politicians like Al Gore and even Tony Blair.
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 20, 2009 20:54:36 GMT
Those forecasting that the El Nino would become an El Nino Modoki appear to have been borne out - the expected modoki horseshoe shape seems to be very apparent at the end of this series.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 20, 2009 21:44:13 GMT
The way the earth is cooling, I predict a very strong La Nina within 9 months. The reason for this is the earth will try to retain it's heat balance.
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Post by poitsplace on Dec 21, 2009 10:39:57 GMT
The way the earth is cooling, I predict a very strong La Nina within 9 months. The reason for this is the earth will try to retain it's heat balance. LOL, I hope not...I like occasional snow and all (since I never had to shovel it) but a STRONG La Nina would at least temporarily erase ALL of the warming of the late 20th century. The last one we had came close and that was only a moderate La Nina. I really just hope for a leveling off of temperatures...I hate the thought of the double-wammy solar minimum/PDO change ramming us down BELOW the temperatures of the last cold period. For crying out loud this is supposed to be a top 5th or 6th warmest year and we're having brutal winters. Also, these MASSIVE snow systems have GOT to screw up the earth's radiation balance quite a bit. Is this just one more missed piece of the warming/cooling cycle puzzle? Does warming up to even holocene optimum levels have little to do with there being significant snowfall in cold period winters? Oh well...the satellites and sensor networks are deployed. Maybe we can convince people to just sit back and watch instead of trying to stop us warming.
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Post by sentient on Dec 22, 2009 3:07:29 GMT
Although I have often spoken of the B and C class D-O events and their potential for showing us the way to extending the current interglacial, I have been curious to see if anyone picked up on the A class. These are more pertinent to this thread. If these abrupt warmings can occur with either rising or falling CO2.............
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Post by poitsplace on Dec 22, 2009 7:14:25 GMT
I am currently (and have been for some time) that ice albedo feedback is pretty much THE main temperature driver of the interglacials. The massive amount of desertification, the huge ice sheets...the fact that a large portion of the continental shelves get exposed. This is an immense amount of albedo feedback and leads to horrible instability. I'll wager even the apparent correlation you find with CO2 is merely an artifact of some OTHER albedo feedback (or its instability). The ice distribution apparently changes constantly during the interglacials. Each time the temperatures spike, the deserts bloom the sea levels surge, water gets redistributed.
Bah, what I'm getting at is that I think RIGHT NOW the only thing ICE albedo feedback can contribute to is cooling. Now we're in a top 5 warmest year and snow is extending to places waaaay far south. I don't think the CO2 warming has afforded us that much protection from the ice age. I think one powerful La Nina while the polar vortex is unstable and temperatures could crash to LIA levels or lower, especially if there was also a MAJOR volcanic eruption along the equator.
On the other hand, I seriously doubt even a powerful La Nina is ACTUALLY going to throw us into another LIA style fit of cooling. I flip-flop a lot...realism and skepticism v/s what looks like it might be possible. I must admit I have quite a bit of curiosity about the impact of the next, inevitable La Nina.
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 25, 2009 19:06:38 GMT
I was looking at this replay to see how the El Nino modoki was doing and there do seem to be some rather interesting other non-nominal events that no-one seems to have raised. First the South Pacific has a HUGE pool of hotter SSTs that dwarf the El Nino (note this is an anomaly chart) Second there are three VERY hot spots that form and disperse one appears to be off Long Island, another off NW Alaska and lastly one between Iceland and Greenland. Anyone want to hazard a guess on what the large hotspot in the South or these smaller hotspots actually are? And what effect on the weather can be expected from the heat in the South Pacific?
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 25, 2009 19:30:38 GMT
I would hazzard a guess or two. 1. The water north of Alaska is turning to ice at a very rapid rate and expressing warmth. Same applies to Greenland
2. There is subsurface volcanic activity in both areas?
You raise interesting points.
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Post by spaceman on Dec 25, 2009 22:50:44 GMT
The snowstorm here in NJ was unusual in that the water off the coast was 45 F. Generally we don't get snow from a nor'easter until the ocean water falls to 37 F or lower. The ocean temp has dropped 5 F in the last week off the coast. At 39 F we get wet heavy snow or rain not the type of snow we got. The upper air had to be very cold tp produce powder.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 25, 2009 22:55:40 GMT
When one looks at the position of the warmer water of North America/South America it is quit easy to see that the warm water is not behaving like a typical El Nino. The warm pool of water is wayyyy to far north.
Now, is this a sign of the negative PDO?
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Post by hilbert on Dec 26, 2009 0:14:33 GMT
The snowstorm here in NJ was unusual in that the water off the coast was 45 F. Generally we don't get snow from a nor'easter until the ocean water falls to 37 F or lower. The ocean temp has dropped 5 F in the last week off the coast. At 39 F we get wet heavy snow or rain not the type of snow we got. The upper air had to be very cold tp produce powder. So, kiwi (I think) has had some postings about Europe getting some extra ocean heat, which has kept some of the Arctic ice in that part of the world from forming as much.
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Post by aj1983 on Dec 26, 2009 0:18:00 GMT
North Sea temperature still above normal. However, winds have been mostly from the north or east, so we might still have a real winter.
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 26, 2009 8:27:37 GMT
The snowstorm here in NJ was unusual in that the water off the coast was 45 F. Generally we don't get snow from a nor'easter until the ocean water falls to 37 F or lower. The ocean temp has dropped 5 F in the last week off the coast. At 39 F we get wet heavy snow or rain not the type of snow we got. The upper air had to be very cold tp produce powder. Let's take just that one spot of New Jersey/Long Island - if you look at the series of snapshots in my post above you will see that there is a 'small' - say 100NM across hotspot that in the space of 3 weeks or so in November heats up to >4 degrees higher than normal then drops back down. That is a HUGE amount of energy. Where did it come from? The more extensive area of warm SST between New Zealand and Chile that dwarfs the El Nino must be having an effect on weather as well - but everyone is so carried away with the Darwin/Tahiti pressure index which makes for an easy maths proxy for the trade winds and thus for El Nino, that they seem to have stopped looking at what is actually happening.
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