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Post by hilbert on Dec 26, 2009 21:35:38 GMT
That is a HUGE amount of energy. Where did it come from? The missing heat in the pipeline?
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 26, 2009 21:44:53 GMT
That is a HUGE amount of energy. Where did it come from? The missing heat in the pipeline? Its a leaky pipeline then
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 27, 2009 1:46:46 GMT
I was trying to find some older sst maps but my search seems to have been done in vain.
The pool of hot water that Naut talks about S/E of NZ. Is that normally there? And the intensity is quit strong from all appearances.
Also, the one on the NE coast of the US. I can not ever recall seeing one there of that magnitude.
Makes one wonder if there is something going on on the ocean floor?
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 27, 2009 9:40:30 GMT
I was trying to find some older sst maps but my search seems to have been done in vain. The pool of hot water that Naut talks about S/E of NZ. Is that normally there? And the intensity is quit strong from all appearances. Also, the one on the NE coast of the US. I can not ever recall seeing one there of that magnitude. Makes one wonder if there is something going on on the ocean floor? I am assuming as the SSTs shown are anomalies - that by definition the warm pool to the East of New Zealand is not usual to a level that is hotter than the El Nino. As I said in my post there is an over-concentration on simple figures like El Nino 3.2 that are really just pattern matching proxies - but the pattern has altered.
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Post by walterdnes on Dec 28, 2009 15:13:17 GMT
It looks like La Nina is still a ways off. The latest weekly SST numbers from www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for are in. They show up just after 9:00 AM EST (1400 Z) on Monday. I use the sum (or average) of the 4 anomalies as a proxy index for ENSO, Today's numbers match the peak of the 2002 El Nino (2002/11/20). If you want to find higher values than today, you have to go all the way back to May 13, 1998, when we were coming off the extreme 1997/1998 El Nino. The PDO doesn't seem to be stopping it. This El Nino is not giving up yet, and is threatening to possibly validate Hansen's prediction of a super El Nino. We'll have to see what 2010 brings.
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 28, 2009 21:59:25 GMT
It looks like La Nina is still a ways off. The latest weekly SST numbers from www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for are in. They show up just after 9:00 AM EST (1400 Z) on Monday. I use the sum (or average) of the 4 anomalies as a proxy index for ENSO, Today's numbers match the peak of the 2002 El Nino (2002/11/20). If you want to find higher values than today, you have to go all the way back to May 13, 1998, when we were coming off the extreme 1997/1998 El Nino. The PDO doesn't seem to be stopping it. This El Nino is not giving up yet, and is threatening to possibly validate Hansen's prediction of a super El Nino. We'll have to see what 2010 brings. That is interesting - because looking at this satellite imagery It is apparent that the El Nino is _dwarfed_ by an SST anomaly to the East of New Zealand. But of course that is outside the script so you won't look at it. Something different is happening - it will be really interesting to see how this turns out. You should also note that for the Earth an El Nino is a dramatic COOLING event. as ocean heat is being lost to the atmosphere and from there to space. There is no spare ocean heat at the moment as it is not increasing as it was forecast to do. I do not believe that this is a sign of global warming although there may be a brief blip in atmospheric temperatures actual total heat content of the Earth may drop. This may lead to a colder world overall.
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Post by walterdnes on Jan 1, 2010 4:44:11 GMT
That is interesting - because looking at this satellite imagery It is apparent that the El Nino is _dwarfed_ by an SST anomaly to the East of New Zealand. But of course that is outside the script so you won't look at it. Something different is happening - it will be really interesting to see how this turns out. As they used to say on Laugh In... "Verrrrrrrrrry Interesting". For a twice-weekly update, see www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html and select "Full_Global" for the date you want. Stepping manually from Dec 3 to Dec 31 shows it growing. On Dec 31, it was approximately an upside-down-Australia in size and shape, located approximately midway between New Zealand and South America. You should also note that for the Earth an El Nino is a dramatic COOLING event. as ocean heat is being lost to the atmosphere and from there to space. There is no spare ocean heat at the moment as it is not increasing as it was forecast to do. Note all the blue (cold anomaly) in the northern Pacific, as well as a bit in the central northern Atlantic. Maybe there is a teleconnection of some sort. E.g. the plus/minus halves of the PDO results from warm water being shunted north/south depending on the phase of the PDO?
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 3, 2010 9:52:05 GMT
That is interesting - because looking at this satellite imagery It is apparent that the El Nino is _dwarfed_ by an SST anomaly to the East of New Zealand. But of course that is outside the script so you won't look at it. Something different is happening - it will be really interesting to see how this turns out. As they used to say on Laugh In... "Verrrrrrrrrry Interesting". For a twice-weekly update, see www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html and select "Full_Global" for the date you want. Stepping manually from Dec 3 to Dec 31 shows it growing. On Dec 31, it was approximately an upside-down-Australia in size and shape, located approximately midway between New Zealand and South America. You should also note that for the Earth an El Nino is a dramatic COOLING event. as ocean heat is being lost to the atmosphere and from there to space. There is no spare ocean heat at the moment as it is not increasing as it was forecast to do. Note all the blue (cold anomaly) in the northern Pacific, as well as a bit in the central northern Atlantic. Maybe there is a teleconnection of some sort. E.g. the plus/minus halves of the PDO results from warm water being shunted north/south depending on the phase of the PDO? Well things are getting more interesting - the update to last night shows a huge positive anomaly much larger than Australia - this has got to have an effect on the global weather that dwarfs the rather wan looking El Nino - it also means that heat is leaving the ocean (or the Satellite wouldn't see it ). Where did it come _from_ and what will be the impact to the next SH winter?
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chb
New Member
Posts: 6
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Post by chb on Jan 3, 2010 19:07:33 GMT
There are higher ocean waves in that region, so I'd hazard to guess that there is conduction of heat from the waves into the atmosphere and then convection upwards. click on the box to the right of new zealand www.oceanweather.com/data/
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Post by walterdnes on Jan 4, 2010 3:37:56 GMT
Well things are getting more interesting - the update to last night shows a huge positive anomaly much larger than Australia - this has got to have an effect on the global weather that dwarfs the rather wan looking El Nino - it also means that heat is leaving the ocean (or the Satellite wouldn't see it ). Where did it come _from_ and what will be the impact to the next SH winter? There's also a cold anomaly in excess of 3 degrees just east of New Zealand. Could the 2 be linked? I.e. an anomalous surface wind blowing from west to east... - pushes warm surface water from the New Zealand coast half-way to South America
- this causes upwelling of colder water near NZ to replace the displaced warmer water
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 4, 2010 11:31:27 GMT
Well things are getting more interesting - the update to last night shows a huge positive anomaly much larger than Australia - this has got to have an effect on the global weather that dwarfs the rather wan looking El Nino - it also means that heat is leaving the ocean (or the Satellite wouldn't see it ). Where did it come _from_ and what will be the impact to the next SH winter? There's also a cold anomaly in excess of 3 degrees just east of New Zealand. Could the 2 be linked? I.e. an anomalous surface wind blowing from west to east... - pushes warm surface water from the New Zealand coast half-way to South America
- this causes upwelling of colder water near NZ to replace the displaced warmer water
There are reports of strong westerlies over New Zealand - but that is really begging the question. The El Nino is caused when the convection over the West Pacific reduces resulting in lower easterly trade-winds and the surface water that had been blown to the West moves back East as a Kelvin wave.... So what caused persistent anomalous weather patterns over NZ and the South Pacific? A change in the Antarctic Polar Vortex? I presume that SSW can occur there as well.
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Post by curiousgeorge on Jan 4, 2010 21:46:08 GMT
Seems like the El Nino is pooping out. This for the farmers who are already getting worried about the upcoming spring planting - www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/ag/blogs/template1&blogHandle=weather&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc25987ff10125fa799fd80477&showCommentsOverride=falseSea surface temperatures continue to rise in the eastern pacific. Our latest calculation of the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern pacific for the month of December 2009 stands at 1.9 degrees celsius above normal. This is up from the 1.7 degrees above normal observed in November. This is the greatest positive sea surface temperature departure from our data since November 2002 when it was also 1.9 degrees above normal. This is certainly not behaving like a classic El Nino in the US with the cold weather in the Midwest and northern Plains not what you would see in a normal El Nino when winter temperatures are generally above to much above normal in these areas. The two major winter storms we saw in December could be related to the El Nino but could also be a continuation of the wet weather pattern we saw throughout 2009. We are seeing more El Nino like weather patterns in South America with the major growing areas of Brazil and Argentina on the wet side although I would say it has been wetter in central Brazil than what you would expect in a normal El Nino. We continue to watch the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) closely for any signs of direction on the El Nino. The daily SOI had generally been negative supporting the El Nino during the first 3 weeks of December. In the last 10 days the daily SOI has turned positive which is less supportive of El Nino. Maybe the El Nino has reached a peak? If the El Nino were to weaken in the coming months it would not be out of the question for central Argentina and southern Brazil to begin to dry out which could impact late filling soybeans. I'm not sure a weakening El Nino would have any significant impact in changing the weather pattern in the Midwest with the idea of a colder than normal and wetter than normal weather pattern continuing no matter what happens with El Nino. This could be another tough spring for planting with saturated soils and cool temperatures a strong possibility.
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Post by walterdnes on Jan 5, 2010 4:28:05 GMT
Add up the 4 ENSO areas to get a crude index. It's been pretty stable the past 10 weeks. Here are the sums since the week centred on Oct 28th...
2009/10/28 4.700 2009/11/04 5.000 2009/11/11 4.900 2009/11/18 4.900 2009/11/25 4.800 2009/12/02 4.900 2009/12/09 4.900 2009/12/16 4.600 2009/12/23 5.500 2009/12/30 5.300
No definite trend in either direction. For comparison, the index was approximately 12 in late 1997 (leading up to the hot 1998) and -7 in late 2007 (remember the cold global values in January 2008?). I'll try to do a screen capture and upload a graph tomorrow.
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Post by hairball on Jan 9, 2010 3:54:52 GMT
No doubt I'm missing something only an amateur would, but in the actual SST chart you can see the El Nino, but the anomaly to the south of it seems like it should be there. That is to say, the anomaly was that is wasn't there all along. Could it be that something broke in the South Pacific right at the time the temp satellites went up which started the current warming?
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 9, 2010 5:20:56 GMT
The actual temperatures are _normal_ therefore no anomaly shows in the anomaly chart. It is expected that the equatorial SSTs are warmer. But there should be an anomaly showing that El Nino has raised the SST higher than normal toward the coast of Central and South America. As you can see from the Anomaly chart this is not too strong.
What is shown on the SST chart is the horseshoe shape of the El Nino Modoki pattern.
The large hot anomaly is still showing between New Zealand and Chile.
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