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Post by alayna on Dec 22, 2009 5:10:28 GMT
We have sufficient coal reserves to create half a trillion barrels of oil equivalent should we need it. It is difficult to explain the numerous converging supply, demand and technology curves...but right now we're not in a good place to switch away from fossil fuels. In a few years solar photovoltaic will get cheaper. In a decade it will be cheaper still. Eventually (probably within a decade) they'll make roll to roll processes for solar photovoltaic and prices will drop considerably. All these current attempts to cut wafers for solar cells out of huge slabs of semiconductor grade silicon will be seen as one of the most idiotic ideas ever (for mass production, anyway). When MOST of us point out the vast quantities of oil available it's because we're TRYING to point out that there is no ACTUAL problem. Between now and then we'll pass a point at which it's more expensive to use the oil/coal and transition naturally. Transitioning NOW is essentially economic suicide. There is no reason to buy now (at a premium) when we know we have enough to last until there's a midnight madness sale and everything will sell for 1/2 (or far less) of its previous price. And where is the infrastructure to create all these millions of barrels of oil from coal?? Can an average oil refinery handle the Fischer–Tropsch? I'm going to guess no. We are committing economic suicide NOW by not transitioning. We are sending billions out of this country every single day to pay for our oil addiction. There's not going to be a midnight madness sale. Last month, the US imported the smallest amount of oil in almost a decade. I didn't notice oil prices going down by much, however, did you? No, because China bought everything we didn't use and then some. Have you read the Hirsch report? I highly suggest you do to get a grasp on the problem. Chances are we are already too late for a smooth transition and we will face very hard challenges. The fact that conventional oil seems to have already peaked in 2005 and has been in decline ever since says as much. Where are you getting that we have vast quantities of oil available? Just from the people on this board? It certainly isn't coming from the majority of people in the business. Those people are saying we have a freight train coming right at us and we're doing nothing!
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Post by alayna on Dec 22, 2009 5:15:08 GMT
Oh my goodness, another mythical beast. A hybrid semi truck! I hope those people went to school before building such a monstrosity. And Walmart is going to be purchasing them? Say it aint so! www.hybridsemitruck.com/
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Post by sentient on Dec 22, 2009 5:19:27 GMT
alayna. The hard, cold facts of reality. I clean up toxic sites for a living. have done so for decades, all over the world. I am one of those countless geologists. And as a result of the first Earth Day in 1972, I got a mountain in NC to be a state park instead of spark plugs (high grade kyanite, sillimanite and andalusite deposit, just like Henry's Knob just across in SC became a hole in the ground).
Drive your Escalades's girl. As the Holocene reaches its half-precessional cycle at an eccentricity minimum, it may be the only hope. Assuming you don't want the inevitable glacial change.
On peak oil, the calculus changes again. Horizontal drilling and directional fracturing technologies have changed the game, again. For the last time? Probably not. Not to worry, the Japanese perfected low-grade coal to oil technology 20 years ago. Incredible reserves lie untapped.
And then there's algae. Keep your array of baggies from becoming "infected" (game over then flashes), and cheap oil is already here.
Meanwhile, enjoy the interglacial, while it lasts......
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Post by alayna on Dec 22, 2009 5:27:44 GMT
No thank you Sentient. I plan on purchasing a Nissan Leaf in 2011, another one of those mythical cars! That is if the dollar hasn't collapsed by then. As if I'd own an Escalade???
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Post by sentient on Dec 22, 2009 5:37:14 GMT
And you could have had a HEMI...........
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Post by msphar on Dec 22, 2009 5:57:23 GMT
I looked at the dividend and recent price decline in Exxon vis a vis the merger buyout of Cross Timber Oil recently for $31B and figured owning a few shares of Exxon would refund my unleaded gas addiction. Problem solved for the next 20 or 30 years. An Escalade would be nice. My stocking is hung on the hearth, just drop the keys in it.
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Post by itsthesunstupid on Dec 22, 2009 6:14:06 GMT
We have sufficient coal reserves to create half a trillion barrels of oil equivalent should we need it. It is difficult to explain the numerous converging supply, demand and technology curves...but right now we're not in a good place to switch away from fossil fuels. In a few years solar photovoltaic will get cheaper. In a decade it will be cheaper still. Eventually (probably within a decade) they'll make roll to roll processes for solar photovoltaic and prices will drop considerably. All these current attempts to cut wafers for solar cells out of huge slabs of semiconductor grade silicon will be seen as one of the most idiotic ideas ever (for mass production, anyway). When MOST of us point out the vast quantities of oil available it's because we're TRYING to point out that there is no ACTUAL problem. Between now and then we'll pass a point at which it's more expensive to use the oil/coal and transition naturally. Transitioning NOW is essentially economic suicide. There is no reason to buy now (at a premium) when we know we have enough to last until there's a midnight madness sale and everything will sell for 1/2 (or far less) of its previous price. And where is the infrastructure to create all these millions of barrels of oil from coal?? Can an average oil refinery handle the Fischer–Tropsch? I'm going to guess no. We are committing economic suicide NOW by not transitioning. We are sending billions out of this country every single day to pay for our oil addiction. There's not going to be a midnight madness sale. Last month, the US imported the smallest amount of oil in almost a decade. I didn't notice oil prices going down by much, however, did you? No, because China bought everything we didn't use and then some. Have you read the Hirsch report? I highly suggest you do to get a grasp on the problem. Chances are we are already too late for a smooth transition and we will face very hard challenges. The fact that conventional oil seems to have already peaked in 2005 and has been in decline ever since says as much. Where are you getting that we have vast quantities of oil available? Just from the people on this board? It certainly isn't coming from the majority of people in the business. Those people are saying we have a freight train coming right at us and we're doing nothing! We can transition to an infrastructure of windmills and solar, but everything else is impossible? That's rich.
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Post by alayna on Dec 22, 2009 6:23:15 GMT
We can transition to an infrastructure of windmills and solar, but everything else is impossible? That's rich. We can??
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 22, 2009 11:06:12 GMT
No thank you Sentient. I plan on purchasing a Nissan Leaf in 2011, another one of those mythical cars! That is if the dollar hasn't collapsed by then. As if I'd own an Escalade??? Well with all those mythical beasts it should be easy to weather the California power brown outs after all you _are_ reducing demand for electricity correct? Ohh well what does it matter if your mythical beasts didn't charge fully last night? I am sure that there is someone with a propane powered bus to pick up those who power down at the roadside.
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Post by alayna on Dec 22, 2009 20:38:10 GMT
Well with all those mythical beasts it should be easy to weather the California power brown outs after all you _are_ reducing demand for electricity correct? Ohh well what does it matter if your mythical beasts didn't charge fully last night? I am sure that there is someone with a propane powered bus to pick up those who power down at the roadside. Well yes, in fact it will be easy to weather California brown outs since i do not live there. In fact, my state sends electricity to California. Since you brought up Cali, their own utility companies have stated they can handle electric cars, IF charged at night. Why do you think there's such a push for smart grids? That will force people to charge at night. Also, it's not like we will wake up tomorrow with millions of electric cars on the road. These things take time. In the meantime, more capacity will be added to the grid. I don't need the Leaf to charge fully since my commute is less than fifteen miles. I can fully charge once a week and be fine. If by chance i do not have enough charge, I can bike to work. Yes people still own bicycles. Thanks for the concern though. You can enjoy your $6 gas though.
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Post by eliyasj on Dec 23, 2009 16:30:45 GMT
Since the global apocolypse is so close I thought I would interject - a hybrid still uses gas, and heaven forbid if you need to use that EV at night while it's charging...say to go to the hospital. Oh nevermind, with what we are doing to healthcare in the states, it wouldn't matter anyway.
Funny thing about technology, in the free market it adapts to the needs of the consumer. So in say 200 or 300 years when we are running out of oil, perhaps our cars commutes will be made in hydrogen powered vehicles (so long as H isn't classified a greenhouse gas.) Living in Pa. in the winter, I am glad to have my Jeep Commander. Gets up those hills in the snow. And (shudder) I even use the keyless start to warm it up.
Respectfully,
John (the guy who believes global warming is much more preferable to global cooling)
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Post by alayna on Dec 23, 2009 18:57:04 GMT
John, no one is disputing hybrids use gas, but they can use significantly less than a standard ICE vehicle. It's a step towards using less oil. Also, it would seem odd to me that people would let their EV battery completely deplete before recharging. None the less, there is already talk of modules that you could add in addition to your standard EV battery to give you extra miles. Seriously though, if someone needs to go to the hospital in the middle of the night, would you not call an ambulance? You're right about health care, it will probably bankrupt the US, even more. I am probably wishful thinking that we can make any sort of transition. This whole thing will probably end in collapse. Especially if our government can not get their spending under control, but I like to try to stay positive.
We will probably have coal in a hundred years or so, but oil will be pretty sparse then, unless some major technology breakthrough happens that allows us to capture all oil in place and is not EROEI negative. Also, hydrogen is an energy carrier, not an energy source. You're still going to need electricity to get that hydrogen car to work...thus making it an electric car. EV's are not new by any means. They have been around for well over 100 years. The battery technology has greatly improved during the past few decades and will continue to improve.
I agree completely with you about global warming. I fear the AGW crowd is NOT right and the global cooling people are.
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Post by nonentropic on Dec 23, 2009 21:22:29 GMT
I think it is quite funny how we all think that we know how it will turn out.
Sure we can talk about technology on the horizon but in reality we only know what drives the changes and these are the consumers and the supply cost /technology mix.
Historically the world has always enjoyed a discussion about crisis and shortages but it always seems to turn out better than before. I am in the oil industry and it is my view that we will enjoy some price spikes and some falls, but ultimately peak oil will happen because of falling demand. Functionally this will result from a competitive energy supply some of us may know what it is but the reality is that it will be many iterations from it current mode.
I can't wait to see how it all turns out.
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Post by donmartin on Dec 24, 2009 0:27:13 GMT
Do not global warming and global cooling ironically entail identical energy consumption issues?
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Post by nonentropic on Dec 24, 2009 2:51:23 GMT
your probably correct but one outcome has a lot less guilt with it.
Man is very interested in believing that it is significant to the point of taking responsibility/credit for fluctuations that it has not caused.
Ego comes with a cost.
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