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Post by alayna on Dec 25, 2009 1:41:04 GMT
Historically the world has always enjoyed a discussion about crisis and shortages but it always seems to turn out better than before. I am in the oil industry and it is my view that we will enjoy some price spikes and some falls, but ultimately peak oil will happen because of falling demand. Functionally this will result from a competitive energy supply some of us may know what it is but the reality is that it will be many iterations from it current mode. I can't wait to see how it all turns out. I do agree with your overall point. I'm just trying to hedge against the huge spikes in oil before they happen. I'm sure the people that were told in the 70s & 80s that the oil would be gone in a decade are enjoying the ride. I would also agree with you that demand will decline. I believe most OECD countries are already at peak demand. Interesting times, indeed. It's funny you made that post. MSNBC is showing a program on past & future predictions. Some of the ones from the sixties were way off, but some were dead on, like shopping at home via the internet. Funny how that was just a dream back then, but is now part of everyday life.
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Post by hairball on Jan 23, 2010 16:58:57 GMT
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Post by alayna on Jan 24, 2010 20:43:14 GMT
Sounds promising until you read the article... Peak oil production is reached when new production can no longer offset the decline in existing fields. If I were a betting woman, I would say that will happen <5 years or already has.
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Post by sentient on Jan 25, 2010 1:36:27 GMT
Sounds promising until you read the article... Peak oil production is reached when new production can no longer offset the decline in existing fields. If I were a betting woman, I would say that will happen <5 years or already has. Alayna, perhaps true with what one may perceive regarding "existing technology". However I am frequently amazed at anthropogenic ingenuity. The advent of horizontal drilling and hydrofracturing, to say nothing of advancements in secondary recovery techniques, stubbornly continues to defy "peak oil" prognostications. The Bakken is but just a single example of known and archived "finds" that stifled technology at the time, but have become "prospective" with what at the moment is "existing technology". I would be careful with such predictions, for before the advent of just horizontal drilling, such predictions would have been "spot-on". Now? Not so much so. Peak oil, or at least peak fossil oil, will eventually be an economic reality. Biogenic oils are making impressive strides. I would not so cavalierly discount the human factor, just yet. Peddling environmental services at an oilmen's meeting last year I ran into a colleague from my "last century" oil exploration days. Thereafter wholly engaged in the legal disposal of the bar's stocks of synthehols, the surprisingly agglomerated mass of additional participants appeared to finally agree that our best solution appeared to be the miserably funded level of fusion research. Peak synthehol was reached shortly thereafter.
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Post by alayna on Jan 25, 2010 3:37:31 GMT
So am I. That is why I am not a "doomer".
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Post by pidgey on Jan 28, 2010 3:26:22 GMT
It's amazing what we've done WITH energy... we haven't done too well at creating it, though.
We've already passed the peak of RCO (Regular Conventional Oil).
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Post by sentient on Jan 30, 2010 13:20:52 GMT
Research at the National Ignition Facility fuels the study on fusion: Attachments:
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Post by pidgey on Feb 1, 2010 20:09:40 GMT
Research at the National Ignition Facility fuels the study on fusion: Yeah, I've been waiting for them to get that one right for over 30 years now. Looks like they're not going to get it in time.
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Post by poitsplace on Feb 1, 2010 20:37:41 GMT
You never hear much about the (aneutronic) boron fusion projects...the only ones with potential to make compact reactors.
In the mean time thorium fueled, molten salt reactors looks like the way to go. They have a lot more potential for cheap reactors (they can't melt down so no need for crazy extra equipment).
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Post by alayna on Feb 6, 2010 21:28:18 GMT
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Post by steve on Feb 7, 2010 19:34:21 GMT
BP's chief executive Tony Hayward reckons peak oil supply is about 10 years off, but that peak demand will happen before then. news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8497000/8497578.stmIf I recall correctly from the interview, he also reckoned the oil price would stay mostly $70-$100 for now, as above $100 was the point where demand dropped off, and below $70 was where supply levels tended to drop off.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 8, 2010 23:34:42 GMT
Looks like what has been said about wind turbines may be coming true... "They are wind turbines, erected last fall by 11 metro and outstate cities. The green-energy machines were expected to be spinning before Christmas, but so far their blades have been largely motionless, apparently paralyzed by frigid weather.
The turbines sit idly in Anoka, North St. Paul, Chaska, Shakopee, Buffalo and six other cities, all members of the Minnesota Municipal Power Agency (MMPA). The refurbished, 115-foot towers had operated on a California wind farm, where they didn't have to worry about cold hydraulic fluid turning to gel and oil lubricants getting too sluggish."www.startribune.com/local/north/83506647.html?elr=KArks7PYDiaK7DUoaK7D_V_eDc87DUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU
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birder
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 223
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Post by birder on Feb 8, 2010 23:53:05 GMT
This post re the wind turbines reminds me of the Simpsons cartoon,where a shyster sells a monorail to the town after he gets everyone clamouring for one,however it doesn't work.
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Post by alayna on Feb 9, 2010 0:59:46 GMT
BP's chief executive Tony Hayward reckons peak oil supply is about 10 years off, but that peak demand will happen before then. news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8497000/8497578.stmIf I recall correctly from the interview, he also reckoned the oil price would stay mostly $70-$100 for now, as above $100 was the point where demand dropped off, and below $70 was where supply levels tended to drop off. I don't now Steve, maybe because my children are so very young, but when 10 years out to peak is considered optimistic by most, it just doesn't' give me those warm fuzzy feelings. He is right though. Most are saying peak demand is here for OECD countries, but what will China and India do?
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Post by poitsplace on Feb 9, 2010 6:17:20 GMT
He is right though. Most are saying peak demand is here for OECD countries, but what will China and India do? China has already contracted (and possibly started construction) on a couple of coal to oil plants based on the process developed in South Africa. I assume india will likely follow suit...as will many others if there are any persistent problems with oil prices. China and India both have about enough for 200 billion barrels. Russia has enough coal to make about 300 billion barrels, the US enough for 500 billion barrels. Total world reserves could make 1.8 trillion barrels. Amusingly the cost of this process means its ALREADY cheaper to produce oil this way. Of course, that's just a short term solution in a fuel sense. India has already started building a thorium fueled reactor. Not sure about china. I assume that cheaper renewables and nuclear will naturally take over for coal and oil based energy in the next 20-30 years (with the coal to oil plants probably staying online to make raw materials). Given the amount of fuel that is actually available and the pace of technology the only thing that would cause an alarming scenario is the premature writing off of carbon based fuels.
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