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Post by glennkoks on Feb 25, 2012 18:02:24 GMT
For those of you who concur with the theory of Peak Oil and think that we will soon reach a plateau in oil production followed by a decline. Does it not therefore stand to reason that we will also see a peak in worldwide temps followed by a decline?
If we reach a peak in oil production and no amount of increases in technology or new discoveries can stop the downward trend our carbon emmisions shoud also reach a peak. Assuming the decrease in production is offset by gains in effeciency and the conversion to cleaner buring natural gas, solar, wind and nuclear energy and we avoid using more coal.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 25, 2012 19:03:15 GMT
glenn: The transition to using less coal will take decades. I also don't think we have reached peak oil production, I think we are closer to reaching peak oil consumption. Even some of my die hard friends and now looking at energy efficiency. The long term costs of driving in our rural area is eating at their pocket book. Conservatives don''t like that..... I see that change as a step in the correct direction.
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 25, 2012 20:11:42 GMT
sigurdur, I do not think we have reached peak oil either. And it is hard to accurately predict when that will happen but in the decades to come our carbon footprint will probably start to decline as our oil production declines.
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Post by magellan on Feb 25, 2012 21:10:24 GMT
Once people discover just what "proven reserves" really means, they will understand what a sham peak oil is. It is a legal term, not geological.
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 25, 2012 21:31:50 GMT
magellan, there are "proven reserves" and "recoverable reserves" which some also use the term "economically recoverable reserves'.
I work with petroleum geologists daily who assure me that "recoverable reserves" are not a sham or legal term. Simply put we tend to pick the "low hanging fruit" first and most of the shallow, cheaply produced oil is a thing of the past. Oil fields deplete in a relativily predictable pattern and new finds have not kept up with the demand and depletion rates.
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Post by magellan on Feb 25, 2012 21:50:51 GMT
magellan, there are "proven reserves" and "recoverable reserves" which some also use the term "economically recoverable reserves'. I work with petroleum geologists daily who assure me that "recoverable reserves" are not a sham or legal term. Simply put we tend to pick the "low hanging fruit" first and most of the shallow, cheaply produced oil is a thing of the past. Oil fields deplete in a relativily predictable pattern and new finds have not kept up with the demand and depletion rates. Reported reserves cannot be counted where they are not legally allowed to drill for. I'm quite familiar with the politics of this and also know someone that worked in the oil industry. The cost gets driven up by the damned government (namely Obama and EPA) putting roadblocks in, purposely. Also, rising oil prices doesn't necessarily mean it is due to less supply, but rather a falling dollar. Think oil costs a lot now, watch and see what happens in the next 12 months. The EPA needs to be dismantled, not to mention the other agencies violating 4th Amendment Rights of any American they feel like going after. It is disgusting.
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Post by icefisher on Feb 25, 2012 21:54:42 GMT
glenn: The transition to using less coal will take decades. I also don't think we have reached peak oil production, I think we are closer to reaching peak oil consumption.
Even some of my die hard friends and now looking at energy efficiency. The long term costs of driving in our rural area is eating at their pocket book. Conservatives don''t like that.....
I see that change as a step in the correct direction.The conservative diehards did this before in the late 70's and early 80's. The muscle car disappeared off the highways. Insulation became popular to put in ceilings and walls. Investment was high in passive solar technology, boosters for water heaters in particular. Appliances and automobiles started using energy efficiency as a selling point. The Japanese car industry boomed. Then energy prices plummeted in the mid 80's, the SUV was born, horsepower in vehicles started increasing. Is it a cycle? In the 70's and early 80's almost everybody did not think so.
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 25, 2012 22:13:48 GMT
magellan, Oil is a commodity traded around the world. Obama and our EPA have no control outside our borders. You could disolve the EPA open ANWAR and other places to drilling and it would not effect our production enough to move the price to any large extent.
Now the strength of the dollar and our economic policy certainly plays a roll in cost at the pump but not so much with production. Gasoline is still cheaper in the U.S. just about any place on earth.
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Post by hairball on Feb 26, 2012 3:40:07 GMT
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Feb 26, 2012 4:15:01 GMT
magellan, there are "proven reserves" and "recoverable reserves" which some also use the term "economically recoverable reserves'. I work with petroleum geologists daily who assure me that "recoverable reserves" are not a sham or legal term. Simply put we tend to pick the "low hanging fruit" first and most of the shallow, cheaply produced oil is a thing of the past. Oil fields deplete in a relativily predictable pattern and new finds have not kept up with the demand and depletion rates. Mr. Glenn, have you talked to your geologist friends about the sub-salt discoveries off shore Brazil and Angola and in the deepwater of the GOM? Soon we will drill through the Lou Ann salt deposits. The reservoirs there are huge
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 26, 2012 4:18:39 GMT
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Post by hairball on Feb 26, 2012 4:30:34 GMT
I don't know how old you are, Glennkoks, but I've been hearing that same tired crap since I was a kid.
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Feb 26, 2012 4:32:17 GMT
and I'll bet all of them underestimate future discoveries. 10 years ago the "experts" were building LPG import facilities because there was a natural gas "shortage" in the US. Today the shale plays and deep gas discoveries have drive natural gas prices to $2.40 mcf. Until the Brazilians drilled the Santos 5 years ago, nobody even dreamed of the potential of sub salt oil plays. I've been in the business for 30 years, and have been hearing about peak oil all that time. The predictions have never come true before, and they are not accurate now. Is most of the cheap, easy to produce oil peaking? Sure. But will the new discoveries stop? I don't think so
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 26, 2012 4:34:35 GMT
phydeaux, I don't know much about Angola. But I do know that the deep water GOM and Brazilian sub salt reserves pose huge technological challenges and the production costs will be high. There will always be new discoveries and technological advances that allow us to produce from areas that are not currently feasable to produce.
However, they will not keep up with worldwide demand and decline rates. I don't subscribe to the doomsday scenario's because we are sitting on trillions of cubic ft of natural gas that we can run in our auto's as the price of oil continues to climb.
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Post by woodstove on Feb 26, 2012 4:37:27 GMT
As India and China approach our lifestyle over the next few decades, any conservation efforts in the West will be rendered moot. My own view is that neither peak oil nor peak consumption are worth worrying about. The real correlation of AGW with Peak Oil is that both are scares intended to shape public opinion.
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