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Post by karlox on Nov 12, 2012 8:44:52 GMT
I was meaning minimum permanent artic ice volume data, for the extension of ice cover affects albedo but jointly with NH winter snow cover...
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Post by thermostat on Nov 15, 2012 5:29:42 GMT
This question of ice volume is most interesting.
It appears that in recent years Arctic Sea Ice volume has dramatically declined. This observation indicates that heat has been entering into the Arctic system (since it take heat to melt ice).
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Post by karlox on Nov 15, 2012 8:51:31 GMT
This question of ice volume is most interesting. It appears that in recent years Arctic Sea Ice volume has dramatically declined. This observation indicates that heat has been entering into the Arctic system (since it take heat to melt ice). It´s it That Heat might be coming mostly from ocean warmer currents and changes on ocean circulations patterns up North? I´d like your best opinion on that, please
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Post by thermostat on Nov 17, 2012 5:43:20 GMT
Karlox,
My best opinon is that the heat that is melting the Arctic Sea Ice is coming from a combination of sources. Ocean heat flowing in from the south is one. Another is increased solar heat absorption in open Arctic waters as a result of sea ice melt. In addition, black carbon is also a factor, increasing sea ice melt.
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 17, 2012 15:25:05 GMT
The Arctic Ice melt is a combination of many things.
1. Yes, black carbon plays a roll. 2. Arctic Temperatures play a very minor roll. One can see that during the melt the temp is barely above freezing most of the time. 3. Ocean currents. This potentially is the largest contributor to the melt.
The melt is different in different areas. That is the largest clue that ocean currents are the main driver of the melts as the temperature deviation from the instrument record is not significant. Yes, I know that GISS has it wayyyyy higher, but that temp metric is now about worthless.
The other large component, which would involve currents, is the ice export via the Fram. That has been accelerating in the recent past. What has happened there as a result is that multi year ice leaves the Arcic at a faster rate than it can be replaced.
We know from proxy data that the current Arctic temps are most certainly not out of the norm. The ice core record from Greenland shows that the air temps were approx 3.0C higher during the MWP as at present. Those spikes were short lived however, spanning a few decades and then going down again. Much the same as the present pattern.
Bowhead whale proxy data shows that the current ice pack is very similiar to the ice pack of the MWP. It seems that we are discovering current phases at present that are centurial in nature. There is just so much that we really don't know, but now there are hints.
Observations in detail have not been possible prior to the past 50 years. The trends are so short, and the dynamics so large that to make any conclusion on the present state of the data is foolish at best, and very very unscientific at most.
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Post by climasol on Nov 20, 2012 6:19:42 GMT
Can sea salinity be a factor to consider? We know that as salinity increase, the freezinpoint decrease.
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Post by karlox on Nov 20, 2012 11:09:58 GMT
The Arctic Ice melt is a combination of many things. 1. Yes, black carbon plays a roll. 2. Arctic Temperatures play a very minor roll. One can see that during the melt the temp is barely above freezing most of the time. 3. Ocean currents. This potentially is the largest contributor to the melt. The melt is different in different areas. That is the largest clue that ocean currents are the main driver of the melts as the temperature deviation from the instrument record is not significant. Yes, I know that GISS has it wayyyyy higher, but that temp metric is now about worthless. The other large component, which would involve currents, is the ice export via the Fram. That has been accelerating in the recent past. What has happened there as a result is that multi year ice leaves the Arcic at a faster rate than it can be replaced. We know from proxy data that the current Arctic temps are most certainly not out of the norm. The ice core record from Greenland shows that the air temps were approx 3.0C higher during the MWP as at present. Those spikes were short lived however, spanning a few decades and then going down again. Much the same as the present pattern. Bowhead whale proxy data shows that the current ice pack is very similiar to the ice pack of the MWP. It seems that we are discovering current phases at present that are centurial in nature. There is just so much that we really don't know, but now there are hints. Observations in detail have not been possible prior to the past 50 years. The trends are so short, and the dynamics so large that to make any conclusion on the present state of the data is foolish at best, and very very unscientific at most. One possibility is a feed-back effect from melting and warmer northern ocean waters that might trigger precipitations in NH and higher albedo winters... jointly with the present and coming weak solar cycles... that´s my speculation only, in such a chaotic structures, as sun and weather and climate, future scenarios are many... and we are just learning.
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Post by icefisher on Nov 20, 2012 13:25:16 GMT
Can sea salinity be a factor to consider? We know that as salinity increase, the freezinpoint decrease. It has been pointed out, as an excuse for the Antarctic not losing seaice, that the geography of the Arctic is far different due to being almost landlocked. Thus discussion of what is happening in the Arctic outside of that geographic context that is widely accepted is unscientific. So one might ask what is the nature of that geographic context. Thats a good question. I would tend to default to an estuary type model that the Arctic is like the mouth of a giant river (actually the mouth of numerous giant rivers) So the level of water in an estuary is determined by precipitation upriver in the rivers drainage. Freshwater runs off the arctic ocean at a rate similar to an estuary. Being lighter than saltwater the freshwater pours out of the arctic ocean through the various straits depending upon wind and current patterns. When precipitation is up the Arctic would have a higher than normal sea level as do all estuaries where the water level is determined by total flow of freshwater. Thus explaining what is happening in the Arctic that is unique to the Arctic has to be explained in the context of precipitation over the northern drainages of Canada, Greenland, Scandanavia, and Asia. Within those explanations the differences in freezing points of saline waters may well be an important part of it.
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Post by karlox on Nov 20, 2012 18:40:48 GMT
Can sea salinity be a factor to consider? We know that as salinity increase, the freezinpoint decrease. It has been pointed out, as an excuse for the Antarctic not losing seaice, that the geography of the Arctic is far different due to being almost landlocked. Thus discussion of what is happening in the Arctic outside of that geographic context that is widely accepted is unscientific. So one might ask what is the nature of that geographic context. Thats a good question. I would tend to default to an estuary type model that the Arctic is like the mouth of a giant river (actually the mouth of numerous giant rivers) So the level of water in an estuary is determined by precipitation upriver in the rivers drainage. Freshwater runs off the arctic ocean at a rate similar to an estuary. Being lighter than saltwater the freshwater pours out of the arctic ocean through the various straits depending upon wind and current patterns. When precipitation is up the Arctic would have a higher than normal sea level as do all estuaries where the water level is determined by total flow of freshwater. Thus explaining what is happening in the Arctic that is unique to the Arctic has to be explained in the context of precipitation over the northern drainages of Canada, Greenland, Scandanavia, and Asia. Within those explanations the differences in freezing points of saline waters may well be an important part of it. So Icefisher, if I get it right low salinity fresh cool water (0-4ºC) flows by in the upper layers of Artic Ocean and get mostly off the Artic... And that this fact is reinforced during higher Artic precipitations years. My question would be wether -somehow- this mechanism is related to an increase in deeper warmer waters inflow to the Artic Ocean; or in other words: what is going on regarding cooler or warmer deeper ocean water inflow/outflow to the Artic? Fluctuates as well? Is it important at all? Beg your pardon for so many questions, but your opinion matters to me. Thanks in advance
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Post by icefisher on Nov 20, 2012 23:33:07 GMT
It has been pointed out, as an excuse for the Antarctic not losing seaice, that the geography of the Arctic is far different due to being almost landlocked. Thus discussion of what is happening in the Arctic outside of that geographic context that is widely accepted is unscientific. So one might ask what is the nature of that geographic context. Thats a good question. I would tend to default to an estuary type model that the Arctic is like the mouth of a giant river (actually the mouth of numerous giant rivers) So the level of water in an estuary is determined by precipitation upriver in the rivers drainage. Freshwater runs off the arctic ocean at a rate similar to an estuary. Being lighter than saltwater the freshwater pours out of the arctic ocean through the various straits depending upon wind and current patterns. When precipitation is up the Arctic would have a higher than normal sea level as do all estuaries where the water level is determined by total flow of freshwater. Thus explaining what is happening in the Arctic that is unique to the Arctic has to be explained in the context of precipitation over the northern drainages of Canada, Greenland, Scandanavia, and Asia. Within those explanations the differences in freezing points of saline waters may well be an important part of it. So Icefisher, if I get it right low salinity fresh cool water (0-4ºC) flows by in the upper layers of Artic Ocean and get mostly off the Artic... And that this fact is reinforced during higher Artic precipitations years. My question would be wether -somehow- this mechanism is related to an increase in deeper warmer waters inflow to the Artic Ocean; or in other words: what is going on regarding cooler or warmer deeper ocean water inflow/outflow to the Artic? Fluctuates as well? Is it important at all? Beg your pardon for so many questions, but your opinion matters to me. Thanks in advance Fluids of different densities finds its own level. Gravity will literally lift the less dense fluid as the denser fluid finds its own level. Two means of reducing runoff is growing glaciers and less precipitation. When is the last time you saw a study on shrinking glaciers? A few short years ago it was at least several times a year. Lonnie Thompson has returned at least twice to Qori Kalis without his annual report on that glacier seeing print. I guess if it doesn't bleed its not good enough.
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Post by thermostat on Nov 22, 2012 4:07:11 GMT
It has been pointed out, as an excuse for the Antarctic not losing seaice, that the geography of the Arctic is far different due to being almost landlocked. Thus discussion of what is happening in the Arctic outside of that geographic context that is widely accepted is unscientific. So one might ask what is the nature of that geographic context. Thats a good question. I would tend to default to an estuary type model that the Arctic is like the mouth of a giant river (actually the mouth of numerous giant rivers) So the level of water in an estuary is determined by precipitation upriver in the rivers drainage. Freshwater runs off the arctic ocean at a rate similar to an estuary. Being lighter than saltwater the freshwater pours out of the arctic ocean through the various straits depending upon wind and current patterns. When precipitation is up the Arctic would have a higher than normal sea level as do all estuaries where the water level is determined by total flow of freshwater. Thus explaining what is happening in the Arctic that is unique to the Arctic has to be explained in the context of precipitation over the northern drainages of Canada, Greenland, Scandanavia, and Asia. Within those explanations the differences in freezing points of saline waters may well be an important part of it. So Icefisher, if I get it right low salinity fresh cool water (0-4ºC) flows by in the upper layers of Artic Ocean and get mostly off the Artic... And that this fact is reinforced during higher Artic precipitations years. My question would be wether -somehow- this mechanism is related to an increase in deeper warmer waters inflow to the Artic Ocean; or in other words: what is going on regarding cooler or warmer deeper ocean water inflow/outflow to the Artic? Fluctuates as well? Is it important at all? Beg your pardon for so many questions, but your opinion matters to me. Thanks in advance karlox, You have recognized a key physical component here, heat transfer. There used to be a lot of sea ice in the arctic, today, not so much. It melted, somehow. Regarding your more interesting question of heat flow via ocean currents, I would offer that this is a question that is next to be figured out scientifically. That said, it sure looks like ocean heat flowing northward matters.
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Post by thermostat on Nov 22, 2012 4:19:06 GMT
It has been pointed out, as an excuse for the Antarctic not losing seaice, that the geography of the Arctic is far different due to being almost landlocked. Thus discussion of what is happening in the Arctic outside of that geographic context that is widely accepted is unscientific. So one might ask what is the nature of that geographic context. Thats a good question. I would tend to default to an estuary type model that the Arctic is like the mouth of a giant river (actually the mouth of numerous giant rivers) So the level of water in an estuary is determined by precipitation upriver in the rivers drainage. Freshwater runs off the arctic ocean at a rate similar to an estuary. Being lighter than saltwater the freshwater pours out of the arctic ocean through the various straits depending upon wind and current patterns. When precipitation is up the Arctic would have a higher than normal sea level as do all estuaries where the water level is determined by total flow of freshwater. Thus explaining what is happening in the Arctic that is unique to the Arctic has to be explained in the context of precipitation over the northern drainages of Canada, Greenland, Scandanavia, and Asia. Within those explanations the differences in freezing points of saline waters may well be an important part of it. So Icefisher, if I get it right low salinity fresh cool water (0-4ºC) flows by in the upper layers of Artic Ocean and get mostly off the Artic... And that this fact is reinforced during higher Artic precipitations years. My question would be wether -somehow- this mechanism is related to an increase in deeper warmer waters inflow to the Artic Ocean; or in other words: what is going on regarding cooler or warmer deeper ocean water inflow/outflow to the Artic? Fluctuates as well? Is it important at all? Beg your pardon for so many questions, but your opinion matters to me. Thanks in advance Karlox, Just btw, I would not presume that icefisher has the relevant physics nailed down. Icefisher, please correct me if I am not correct, Icefisher, I gather that you are not a physicist; or are you?
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Post by karlox on Nov 22, 2012 7:50:31 GMT
So Icefisher, if I get it right low salinity fresh cool water (0-4ºC) flows by in the upper layers of Artic Ocean and get mostly off the Artic... And that this fact is reinforced during higher Artic precipitations years. My question would be wether -somehow- this mechanism is related to an increase in deeper warmer waters inflow to the Artic Ocean; or in other words: what is going on regarding cooler or warmer deeper ocean water inflow/outflow to the Artic? Fluctuates as well? Is it important at all? Beg your pardon for so many questions, but your opinion matters to me. Thanks in advance Karlox, Just btw, I would not presume that icefisher has the relevant physics nailed down. Icefisher, please correct me if I am not correct, Icefisher, I gather that you are not a physicist; or are you? Hi Thermostat! I´m for sure a layman; as for anyone else I just try to be sure to understand what they mean and first of all I pound whether it sounds reasonable... next I try to get more sourcess and contradictory opinions... learning bit by bit. So to me everybody´s point of view and explanations are very welcome... I was wondering myself effects in short term weather variability -if any- o a record melting summer season in the Artic like the one we had... More humidity in NH air expected for winter? Ocean Low salt water flow increased due to higher precipitations? And deep or shallow ocean currents possible drifts affecting the Artic? I try to avoid political confrontation on this, believe that we live most interesting times for science, and that the opportunity of monitoring weak cycles such as 24 and the ones might come ahead, with all the modern satellites and computers producing such an amount of useful information... We all are going to learn a lot within next few years. I bet. And please thermostat, your information and opinions are best welcome to me.!
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Post by icefisher on Nov 22, 2012 12:35:58 GMT
So Icefisher, if I get it right low salinity fresh cool water (0-4ºC) flows by in the upper layers of Artic Ocean and get mostly off the Artic... And that this fact is reinforced during higher Artic precipitations years. My question would be wether -somehow- this mechanism is related to an increase in deeper warmer waters inflow to the Artic Ocean; or in other words: what is going on regarding cooler or warmer deeper ocean water inflow/outflow to the Artic? Fluctuates as well? Is it important at all? Beg your pardon for so many questions, but your opinion matters to me. Thanks in advance Karlox, Just btw, I would not presume that icefisher has the relevant physics nailed down. Icefisher, please correct me if I am not correct, Icefisher, I gather that you are not a physicist; or are you? You seldom gather much of anything Thermostat! Still waiting for your references to support your viewpoint that current ice levels have not been seen since the Holocene Thermal Optimum. You just made that up for the sake of argument did you not? So what are you taking issue with now? That the freezing temperature variation in the arctic does not matter? That precipitation in the northern hemisphere does not matter? That nothing matters except your religious belief in CO2 matters? Why not trying to add something to these discussions. You are sooooooo transparent, you go off after people here when you have nothing to contribute. Am I a physicist? That would depend upon which definition one adopts for physicist. The most common definition is "a scientist who does research in physics", under that definition I would be; but I do not consider myself a physicist and do not consider most climate scientists to be physicists either despite the fact most do some research in physics. You need to explain why that matters. Does the opinion of full time, fully degreed physicists matter to you? If so what do you think of the opinions of famous physicists like Dr Richard Lindzen, or Dr. Will Happer?, or Dr. Fred Singer, or Dr. Gerhard Gerlich, or Dr. Ralf Tscheuschner, or Dr Syun Akasofu. Does a PhD in physics even matter to you? Or is your response to the above Physics PhDs is to just ignore their degrees?
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Post by graywolf on Nov 22, 2012 21:11:57 GMT
www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/pip/2012GL054259.shtmlFor those who listened to the folk playing down the significance of the GAC12. Best hope it was not connected to low ice leading to both large tracts of open water and elevated sst's or we may be in for a few more over the coming melt seasons. With ice ever thinner who is to say that such a storm could not herald the end of a permanent ice presence in the basin over the matter of a few days?
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