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Post by graywolf on Apr 22, 2013 16:41:34 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 22, 2013 17:28:23 GMT
cutty: This is WHY the GCM's are doing so poorly. As they are at present, they just do NOT produce useful information for the general scientific community.
Anyone who uses the outputs of these models has to be in the lower 10% of the lowest 10% of the Scientists. Reality HAS to prevail.....to be credible.
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Post by cuttydyer on Apr 23, 2013 10:48:08 GMT
Hi GW, A little off topic - no mention of the Sun's influence. Interesting paper though; review in the New York Times highlights that the research indicated: The Arctic was also warmest during the twentieth century, although warmer during 1941–1970 than 1971–2000 according to our reconstruction….
In Europe, slightly higher reconstructed temperatures were registered in A.D. 741–770, and the interval from A.D. 21–80 was substantially warmer than 1971–2000. Antarctica was probably warmer than 1971–2000 for a time period as recent as A.D. 1671–1700, and the entire period from 141–1250 was warmer than 1971–2000.This needs be posted in the Arctic Ice thread. Link: dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/22/study-charts-2000-years-of-continental-climate-changes/
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Post by cuttydyer on Apr 24, 2013 9:19:12 GMT
Mesmeric:
In the three years since it first provided images of the sun in the spring of 2010, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory has had virtually unbroken coverage of the sun's rise toward solar maximum, the peak of solar activity in its regular 11-year cycle. This video shows those three years of the sun at a pace of two images per day.
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Post by cuttydyer on Apr 25, 2013 9:47:16 GMT
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Post by cuttydyer on May 1, 2013 9:12:37 GMT
New paper finds another amplification mechanism by which the Sun controls climate.WUWT: A paper published today in the Journal of Climate finds tiny variations in solar activity over 11-year solar cycles have greatly amplified effects upon climate via changes in the Arctic Oscillation, North Pacific sea surface temperatures & sea level pressure, and via changes in stratospheric ozone from solar UV. The authors find the Arctic Oscillation evolves from a negative mode a few years before solar maximums to a positive mode at and following solar maximums. The IPCC claims the tiny variations in solar activity during solar cycles cannot affect climate, but this paper and many others demonstrate solar activity has greatly amplified effects upon climate via ocean oscillations, atmospheric oscillations such as the Madden-Julian oscillation and Quasi-biennial oscillation, stratospheric ozone, and sunshine hours/clouds.Link: journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00843.1Link WUWT: wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/30/another-amplification-mechanism-discovered-by-which-the-sun-affects-earths-climate/
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Post by cuttydyer on May 3, 2013 15:10:34 GMT
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Post by trbixler on May 3, 2013 15:33:06 GMT
Cutty I too read the post. While I believe that it is the sun I struggled with the 5 factor curve fitting technique. I believe that any curve can be generated with just two numbers being divided, then sliced by a time series, very difficult to find the exact two numbers. But the why is always important. That is why you hear me railing about the one trick pony CO2 as being silly at best. Still pretty impressive curve fitting.
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Post by nautonnier on May 3, 2013 15:42:22 GMT
Interesting that they do not include the QBO in GCM due to insufficient understanding but they know for certain that CO2 is the cause of all ailments warming to the nearest watt per square meter
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Post by trbixler on May 6, 2013 13:51:51 GMT
Regulation, its all settled and my model includes everything. "Organic vapors affect clouds leading to previously unidentified climate cooling" "University of Manchester scientists, writing in the journal Nature Geoscience, have shown that natural emissions and humanmade pollutants can both have an unexpected cooling effect on Earth's climate by making clouds brighter. Clouds are made of water droplets, condensed onto tiny particles suspended in the air. When the air is humid enough, the particles swell into cloud droplets. It has been known for some decades that the number of these particles and their size control how bright the clouds appear from the top, controlling the efficiency with which clouds scatter sunlight back into space. A major challenge for climate science is to understand and quantify these effects which have a major impact in polluted regions." link
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Post by hrizzo on May 6, 2013 15:43:05 GMT
Regulation, its all settled and my model includes everything. "Organic vapors affect clouds leading to previously unidentified climate cooling"
"University of Manchester scientists, writing in the journal Nature Geoscience, have shown that natural emissions and humanmade pollutants can both have an unexpected cooling effect on Earth's climate by making clouds brighter. Clouds are made of water droplets, condensed onto tiny particles suspended in the air. When the air is humid enough, the particles swell into cloud droplets. It has been known for some decades that the number of these particles and their size control how bright the clouds appear from the top, controlling the efficiency with which clouds scatter sunlight back into space. A major challenge for climate science is to understand and quantify these effects which have a major impact in polluted regions."
linkOh, yes, we human are so bad! But, of course, this could explain why places as polluted and wet as Antarctica have been cooling for at least 30+ years.
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Post by cuttydyer on May 9, 2013 9:56:58 GMT
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Post by cuttydyer on May 9, 2013 10:00:13 GMT
Review paper finds European climate change due to the Sun, not CO2 A new SPPI & CO2 Science review paper entitled Solar Influence on European Temperatures finds extensive evidence that solar activity has dominated European climate change of the past 2 millenia, which "suggests that there is little reason to attribute 20th-century global warming to the concomitant increase in the air's CO2 content. Natural variability appears quite capable of explaining it all. In conclusion, paleoclimatic studies from Europe provide more evidence for the global reality of solar-induced temperature oscillations pervading both glacial and interglacial periods, which oscillations are looking more and more likely as the primary forcing agent responsible for driving temperature change during the Current Warm Period. The concurrent historical increase in the air's CO2 content, on the other hand, is likely little more than a bit player." Excerpt: "In yet another refutation of the theory of CO2-induced global warming, Mangini et al. found "a high correlation between ?18O and ?14C, that reflects the amount of radiocarbon in the upper atmosphere," and they note that this correlation "suggests that solar variability was a major driver of climate in Central Europe during the past 2 millennia." In this regard, they report that "the maxima of ?18O coincide with solar minima (Dalton, Maunder, Sporer, Wolf, as well as with minima at around AD 700, 500 and 300)," and that "the coldest period between 1688 and 1698 coincided with the Maunder Minimum." Also, in a linear-model analysis of the percent of variance of their full temperature reconstruction that is individually explained by solar and CO2 forcing, they found that the impact of the Sun was fully 279 times greater than that of the air's CO2 concentration, noting that "the flat evolution of CO2 during the first 19 centuries yields almost vanishing correlation coefficients with the temperature reconstructions." PDF Link: scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/european_temps.pdfSchtick Link: hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/review-paper-finds-european-climate.html
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Post by icefisher on May 9, 2013 12:09:47 GMT
Actually its probably a good thing that mother nature has intervened.
Perhaps now the "Gaia Is Perfect", "Gaia Is Lord", "Gaia is an Untouchable Sacred Cow" religious sect will now be marginalized sufficiently so as to lessen their effect on progress. But thats probably a pipe dream as the earth-centric folks have been causing fits for scientists of the solar system for millennia with little sign of a let up.
Bet one could also build a tight correlation to the doom and gloom output of public-funded centric science to the number of ex-acidhead, coke snorting, professorship chairs. But that would be an expensive study given the current price of coke.
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Post by cuttydyer on May 13, 2013 7:15:05 GMT
A google search coughed up this 2012 MET Office presentation posted on the lasp.colorado.edu website. Extract from summary: • Increasing modelling evidence to support the observed modulation of the AO/NAO by UV solar variabilityIt begs the question: in relation to the recent cold winters, why is the MET Office's Chief Scientist Julia Slingo placing so much emphasis on the possibility that "Arctic Amplification" is the cause? Pdf link: lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2012ScienceMeeting/docs/presentations/S2-01_Ineson_sorce2012.pdf
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