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Post by blustnmtn on Mar 6, 2018 13:46:50 GMT
I like the 7 MDI Annual Modulation Issue graph which looks like they maybe switching with the North going back out of sync Leif does not believe we are headed for a solar minimum.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 6, 2018 14:58:34 GMT
I like the 7 MDI Annual Modulation Issue graph which looks like they maybe switching with the North going back out of sync Leif does not believe we are headed for a solar minimum. ? ? ? By past standards I think we already had one. So, perhaps the question is ... Will it be one, two or ? cycles.
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Post by blustnmtn on Mar 6, 2018 15:08:10 GMT
Leif does not believe we are headed for a solar minimum. ? ? ? By past standards I think we already had one. So, perhaps the question is ... Will it be one, two or ? cycles. I should have said grand minimum. I believe his continued stance is that 25 will have a higher peak than 24.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 6, 2018 16:30:11 GMT
You are correct blustnmtn.
Leif seems to know his stuff. He could be wrong, but I wouldn't bet against him.
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 7, 2018 13:03:14 GMT
You are correct blustnmtn. Leif seems to know his stuff. He could be wrong, but I wouldn't bet against him. Leif forecast a low SC24 when all of NASA/NOAA and the 'consensus' were forecasting a really high SC24. Leif is now using the same method to forecast a SC25. Several others are forecasting higher and some lower. We will know in a few years who will be right. Russians and Chinese are betting on a low one and putting their policy on the line; hence Russia cornering the natural gas market (till Trump that is) and China building coal fired baseload power generation at an incredible rate.
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 7, 2018 13:05:10 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Mar 7, 2018 22:06:02 GMT
As Sigurdur said, Leif Svalgaard was one of the few to accurately predict the low activity of Cycle 24 and his basis seems sound. But there was another predictor which also was accurate. I've posted this chart before but it is a good reminder that a lot of spotless days at this time does not necessarily indicate that Cycle 25 is going to be weak. For all cycles since Cycle 10, when the transition between cycles had a high number of spotless days (lower sunspot activity), the cycle's peak sunspot activity (counterintuitively) was on the high side like cycles 16 to 23. Likewise, when the transition had higher activity (fewer spotless days), the cycle tended to be weaker like Cycle 24. The run-up to Cycle 25 so far is showing an unusually high number of spotless days. This year, 49% of the days are spotless. If that continues, this method calls for Cycle 25 to be more like cycles 16 to 23 which contained the so-called grand maximum.
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Post by Ratty on Mar 7, 2018 23:55:39 GMT
I might get a chance to post this ....
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Post by douglavers on Mar 8, 2018 5:19:35 GMT
I think attempting to forecast 4 months forward is courageous, as Sir Humphrey would say!
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 9, 2018 7:21:42 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Mar 9, 2018 17:41:33 GMT
I think attempting to forecast 4 months forward is courageous, as Sir Humphrey would say! I've seen some pretty good seasonal forecasts based on analogues, ie, examine historic weather systems based on enso, qbo, solar etc.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 9, 2018 17:47:46 GMT
I think attempting to forecast 4 months forward is courageous, as Sir Humphrey would say! I've seen some pretty good seasonal forecasts based on analogues, ie, examine historic weather systems based on enso, qbo, solar etc. What do your analogs say for June in southern and central Europe? Shorts and t-shirts OR thermals and rain gear? Am I going to freeze on those Croatian ferries come the end of May? Need I even ask about Wales?
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 9, 2018 20:18:42 GMT
Stop in Iceland and pick up some woolies.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 9, 2018 20:29:48 GMT
Stop in Iceland and pick up some woolies. The all-purpose package. Wear the outside, eat the middle.
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Post by acidohm on Mar 11, 2018 22:34:24 GMT
I've seen some pretty good seasonal forecasts based on analogues, ie, examine historic weather systems based on enso, qbo, solar etc. What do your analogs say for June in southern and central Europe? Shorts and t-shirts OR thermals and rain gear? Am I going to freeze on those Croatian ferries come the end of May? Need I even ask about Wales? youtu.be/b7QIoVyxWvELooked at the spring and summer analogs provided by gavs weather, months that have behaved similarly to the last few under similar enso and solar conditions place the jetstream to the south with troughs over Europe. Not a particularly wet signal, but cloudy and cooler airmasses. I'd pack more long sleeves and trousers then if expecting blazing sunshine, shorts/t-shirts/flip flops are cheap in Croatia in any case 😉 Wales may require jumpers....
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