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Post by cuttydyer on Nov 19, 2013 11:28:58 GMT
24 is more like cycle 7 atm higher sun spot count .. ? Hi Flearider, Here's Geoff Sharp's take on cycle 24 (using his "Layman's Count" comparable with the old SIDC (Wolf) count): "My predictions show that SC24 will be similar to SC5. The same Solar system forces are in play at similar timings and strength (SC24 perhaps showing a stronger disruption strength, which indicates that SC24 should be a smaller cycle than SC5). This graph using the SIDC monthly count from Jan 1798 will compare the Layman's Count from Jan 2008. The Layman's Count is the only count that can properly compare with the old SIDC (Wolf) measures. SC14 has been added for interest (starts Jan 1901) along with the GSN value from Hoyt & Schatten's alternative count which offers another comparison. All 4 records beginning at the end of their previous cycle (where the downramp meets the bottom). The unsmoothed numbers showing the big swings in SC14." Link: www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 27, 2015 20:09:01 GMT
Acidohm said: I'd be very interested to follow up on Sig thought a few posts back about unusual looking pressure system setups over Greenland.... Undoubtably, this is going to lead into a discussion on the NAO among other things ... so I looked around and tried to find an existing thread dedicated to that or a similar topic. I found this one, which has a very nice collection of posts, many provided by Cutty. So I thought that maybe we could resurrect it and add to the collection. First, I found a few relatively current papers discussing the NAO. This is certainly not comprehensive ... just a few snippets. Unfortunately, Nature isn't free. www.nature.com/nature/journal/v523/n7558/abs/nature14518.html ... Model reconstruction www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n11/full/ngeo1589.html NAO variablilty of 5200 years www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v1/n12/full/ngeo352.html More on variability www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150330/ncomms7545/full/ncomms7545.html the NAO and Volcanic Activity I also went back to my data sets and constructed a composite time series of the NAO, PDO, AMO and the Nino Region 3.4 time series. While this time series is pretty short (65 years), there appears to be an intriguing relationship between the NAO and the PDO series. Positive NAO phases appear to be associated with positive PDO phases and vice versa ... merely a quick observation over a very short time series.
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Post by acidohm on Dec 27, 2015 21:57:26 GMT
When I get Internet back and can use laptop again, I'll look into it more deeply mboy...
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 28, 2015 0:31:53 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Dec 28, 2015 0:37:52 GMT
One river has risen 5m and rising....record of 5.4!! More rain due same area, 50-80mm Tuesday Wednesday
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 28, 2015 1:02:43 GMT
You suppose this qualifies as 'an atmospheric river' event?
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 28, 2015 1:21:08 GMT
You suppose this qualifies as 'an atmospheric river' event? Looks like it. Not the 1st time for Northern UK. Remember that link on weather events for the past 1,O00 years or so?
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 28, 2015 1:57:58 GMT
You suppose this qualifies as 'an atmospheric river' event? Looks like it. Not the 1st time for Northern UK. Remember that link on weather events for the past 1,O00 years or so? Yep ... I keep it handy ... and loaded.
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 28, 2015 6:58:33 GMT
From 1900 Years of Climate History (ends in 1901)
One of the last entries notes floods in the Midlands and western England while London was warm. I note that the AMO at that time stood almost exactly where it is today on its way down into a cold period that lasted until about 1927.
On 30-31 December 1900, there were heavy floods in the Midlands and western England.97
A terrible storm passed over northern England and southern Scotland. In England, when the storm centers passes by far to the north, southern England experiences the mildest winter weather. Thus, on 26 December 1900, the weather in London, England was one of the greenest Christmases on record, for the weather had been so mild that primroses and corn flowers were abloom as far north as Liverpool and Yorkshire, while Devonshire reveled in a subtropical climate and the Isle of Wight was a garden of roses in midwinter. Never had flowers been more abundant in the London market at Christmas time, nor had mistletoe been cheaper. The London sky had been heavily clouded and the air filled with mist, while the weather had been unseasonably warm.124
On January 6, severe cold weather somewhat suddenly spread over Europe. A blizzard prevailed throughout southern Russia and southern Austria; a bitter easterly wind and gale prevailed on the east coast of Great Britain, frozen harbors and enormous snow drifts impeded traffic on the northern shore of the Black Sea, and violent gales in the Adriatic Sea. Snow fell as far south as Naples and Rome, Italy.
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Post by acidohm on Dec 28, 2015 22:26:49 GMT
I've been watching this guy on YouTube fir a few months, he's been pretty good at calling the weather so far and uses a lot of resources through his predictions, I've learnt quite a lot from him. I hope this link works, I'm only on the phone for forseable future, here he out lines his thoughts on following week or so, the opinion is we're on a knife edge..... youtu.be/fjQchUPkSfk
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